Racetrack Lenny

"Don't Give Up Your Day Job" Preakness

Of all the Triple Crown races, the Preakness is the one race that has been won by the most closers. Since Pimlico plays well to speed, the opening fractions tend to be fast and speed duels develop allowing for a "come from behind" type to take it all. Gate Dancer and Deputed Testamony come to mind.

Tomorrow's Preakness field is one of the sorriest fields I've ever seen in this race. Many of the horses entered are still eligible for "allowance non-winners of 1 race lifetime" conditions. But, bet we must or it wouldn't be fun.

Big Brown is likely to go off as one of the shortest-priced favorites to run this race. I'm expecting Big Brown will go off at 1/5 odds. Do you really want to bet $2 to get a $2.40 payoff? The problem is Big Brown towers over this field--on paper, at least. I just don't see anyone outright beating him. Big Brown is a very versatile horse. He can win being on the lead. He can win stalking the pace and he can win closing from behind. He is a legitimate contender for the Triple Crown after a 30 year drought. So, we'll bet this race as a triple play to try and get better than 1/5.

The race does get more interesting when you're handicapping for 2nd and 3rd place. Here's my play.

In the 2nd spot, I will use #6-Racecar Rhapsody; #8-Kentucky Bear and #12-Gayego.

I like Racecar Rhapsody because he is a legitimate one-run closer who has run well on dirt and has Beyer speed figures in the mid-90's (as a comparison, Big Brown's speed figures are between 106 and 109--get the picture?). If a suicidal pace develops, Racecar Rhapsody can close from far back to perhaps get a suck-up 2nd. Kentucky Bear is the "wise guy" horse. He comes in after only 3 lifetime starts and each race is an improvement. He tends to hang mid-pack and then make a move turning for home. His last 4 workouts have been sensational; so, I'm expecting a big effort--unless his workouts have already exhausted his energy. Gayego's run in the Ky. Derby was too bad to be true. When you view an isolated replay of the race, Gayego got a nightmare trip and finished 17th. However, owner & trainer looked over this horse with a fine tooth comb and couldn't come up with anything wrong. Gayego was eagerly eating the very next day and all signs show that he's ready. If he runs to what he did in the Arkansas Derby on April 12th--where he earned a speed figure of 103, he could make Big Brown work up a sweat to win.

Now for the 3rd spot: I'll put the 6, 8 and 12 in third; but, I'll also include #1- Macho Again; #2- Tres Borrachos and #13- Hey Byrn. Macho Again runs his best late and his last race got him his best lifetime speed figure. However, that was in a 7-1/2 furlong sprint and the flow of this race will be different. That being said, he has the rail and can save ground all the way into the stretch and then close to nail 3rd. Tres Borrachos (Spanish for "Three Drunks") is a horse on the improve showing speed figures of 71, 90 and 95. In the Arkansas Derby he set the pace, weakened to 4th in the stretch and then found another gear to regain the show spot. He did that at 37-1. So, expect him to be on or near the front and maybe he hangs on for 3rd. Finally, Hey Byrn has had some good races in allowance company getting speed figures of 90 and 97. His last effort was a win in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. While he beat a very weak field, he did it by stalking the pace and then edging away late. I like the fact that his trainer has put a one mile workout into him preparing him for the 1-3/16th mile Preakness.

The Bet:

$2 Trifecta: 7 with 6,8,12 with 1,2,6,8,12,13. Total bet $30.

May the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 10:19 PM 0 bets placed

Derby Post-Mortem

I was going to do a humorous and cynical entry today; but, given the tragic ending of Eight Belle's life, I will honor her by keeping all humor out of this. My thoughts and prayers are with the connections of the wonderful filly who ran her heart out yesterday and did much better than I ever could have imagined.

Those that followed my advice yesterday at least salvaged an $11.60 show price on Denis of Cork who closed from 20th and last at the top of the stretch to be a rail-skimming 3rd at the end. At least it wasn't a total monetary loss for us.

Big Brown appears to be the real deal. After being so lightly raced and running such a grueling race in the Florida Derby AND drawing post position 20 for yesterday's Derby, I just didn't think Big Brown could do it. Well, he did it and with complete authority. If he stays healthy over the next 5 weeks, we may be looking at a Triple Crown winner. It's been 30 years since Affirmed; so, let's hope Big Brown can pull off the hat trick. Let's also congratulate jockey Kent Desormeaux who rode a masterful race yesterday. He kept Big Brown in the 5 path totally in the clear and had a snug hold on him to keep him relaxed. When Desormeaux gave Big Brown the signal, he took off--much like Street Sense last year. He was much the best.

Runner-up Eight Belles ran one hell of a race. She was in the top 5 all the way around the track running through some very demanding fractions and she did not wilt in the stretch. She fought valiantly on to hold the place spot safely. I didn't think she could do it; but, she did. As with any sport, there is always the potential for injury and yesterday's Derby was no different. I watched the race at Belmont Park and did not know what had happened to the brilliant filly until I got home and wanted to get the race replay on the internet. I pulled up nbc sports and the headline was "Eight Belles Put Down". I couldn't believe what I was reading. I was literally in tears. I've heard of bizarre injuries (Barbaro comes to mind); but, I've never heard of any horse breaking both front ankles. It's truly freakish. I guess we'll never know how that happened. I hope the trainer, owner and jockey don't blame themselves for this tragic ending. They are all in my prayers.

Ok, now I'll comment on my picks:

1. Pyro raced 18th most of the way and closed belatedly to get 8th place. Pyro was soundly bumped twice and was steadied getting into the far turn. At the top of the stretch, jockey Shaun Bridgmohan fanned 4 wide into the stretch; but, Pyro did not have a second gear and he just proceeded to pass tiring horses. Yes, Pyro did not get a good trip; but, now the Blue Grass debacle of 3 weeks ago doesn't seem as much of a fluke as it did. I'm sure owner and trainer will have Pyro totally looked over to see if there is a breathing problem or some other physical reason for this horse's sudden reversal of good form.

2. Visionaire- If any horse got a horrible trip, it was Visionaire. He stumbled leaving the gate and nearly unseated jockey Jose Lezcano. Lezcano was lucky to not have been thrown to the ground. As Visionaire was trying to get to mid-pack coming by the stands the first time, he was bumped twice and had to steady going into the first turn in very tight quarters. As he was making a move down the backstretch, Big Truck started making a move and Visionaire had to take up to avoid colliding with Big Truck. Visionaire once again began making a move on the far turn, got caught in traffic and had to steady for a 3rd time. At the head of the stretch, Lezcano fanned Visionaire 6 wide and made a very belated rally in the stretch to finish 12th. Visionaire just had nothing left with all his energy spent. Horses are not cars where you can accelerate and brake at will. My guess is Visionaire will be negatively affected by this race.

3. Denis of Cork- As usual, Denis of Cork walked out of the gate immediately being 20th and last. At the half mile pole, he was 25 lenghts off the lead. At the head of the stretch he had established contact with the field but was still last 20 lenghts off the lead and then jockey Calvin Borel angled to the rail and Denis of Cork closed powerfully to be third. The connections of Denis of Cork will continue to work on this horse's penchant for sleepwalking during the early stages of a race. However, this horse is a strong closer and a little more conditioning makes him a threat in both the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes.

4. Gayego- Perhaps the most disappointing performance of all. While I had been ready to dismiss Gayego in my handicapping because he had run only on synthetic surfaces, I was drawn to him when he won the Arkansas Derby in impressive style--on the dirt. So, I knew dirt would not be a problem. However, it looks like the size of the field, the noise and all the hoopla surrounding the race took its toll. Gayego was difficult to load into the gate and he was lathered up--never a good sign. It a sign of a horse whose anxiety level is high and a horse in this state expends a lot of energy. Gayego wasn't his usual self leaving the gate. He usually gets a speedy beginning but he came out sluggishly and jockey Mike Smith proceeded to get him into contention bringing him up to 7th as they entered the first turn. Gayego tried to bolt towards the fence coming out of the clubhouse turn and onto the backstretch and Mike Smith had to use his whip lightly to keep Gayego's mind on the race. As they were midway into the far turn, Gayego's early waste of energy took its toll as Gayego steadily faded to finish a weary 17th. I wouldn't dismiss him in the Preakness since the Preakness typically has 12 or fewer horses in it; but, if I were the trainer, I would try blinkers, a hood and ear plugs--much as was done for Gate Dancer many years ago.

5. Tale of Ekati- This horse is a closer and he was much closer to the pace than usual. Jockey Eibar Coa kept Tale of Ekati in a stalking mode during the early stages of the race running 7th most of the way before he began his bid at the top of the stretch. Unfortunately, Coa encountered all sorts of traffic problems; but, he did manage to close and get 4th. For those who used Tale of Ekati in their superfecta wagers, getting 39-1 odds on him was quite generous. Look for this horse in the remaining two Triple Crown events.

As I do each year, I will once again urge Churchill Downs to change the rules and allow only the top 12 horses in earnings a berth in the Derby. A 12 horse field produces much more consistency in terms of a horse running his/her best race. When you have a field of 20, there is much too much dependant upon luck than skill. Clearly, many horses capable of better were compromised by bad luck yesterday. It's time to end the cavalry charge nature of this race once and for all.

Again, my sympathy to the connections of Eight Belles on the tragic loss of their horse.

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 12:58 PM 1 bets placed

Mint Julep Soup

If the Louisville weather forecast holds up, there will be a lot of slop on the track. Heavy showers and thunderstorms will add a new wrinkle to the mix. Most of the horses running tomorrow haven't raced on an "off" track. Well, you can't control the weather but you can control your bets.

I have keyed my interest amongst 5 horses: #9-Pyro; #8-Visionaire, #19-Gayego; #2 Tale of Ekati and #16-Denis of Cork. I have tossed out two of the more favored horses: #5-Eight Belles and the favorite #20-Big Brown. First, the toss outs:

1. Eight Belles: This filly is good; but, I don't think she's good enough to beat the boys in a cavalry charge. Eight Belles has had some sensational races against other fillies; however, when you look at the Racing Form, you'll see that she has run many of her opening quarter miles in 24 seconds or slower. That will not happen tomorrow. There is speed in the race and I wouldn't be surprised to see an opening quarter in 22-4/5ths or 23-1/5th seconds. If that happens, Eight Belles will be toast.

2. Big Brown: I particularly dislike trainers who boast all week of how their horse will "obliterate" the field. Richard Dutrow is already comparing his horse to Secretariat. Puhleeze. Yes, Big Brown has two sensational speed figures; however, let's remember the Derby will be only his 4th start (shades of Curlin last year). He broke his maiden last September, won an allowance race in March and then won the Florida Derby on March 28th. With such a light campaign and the fact that he has to come out of post position 20 is a very tall order. One thing in his favor, though, is he is sired by Danzig who loved the mud. In any case, I will try to beat Big Brown.

The Contenders:

1. Pyro: The early favorite to win it all lost favor when he finished a badly beaten 10th in the Blue Grass Stakes. However, that race was run on the polytrack (synthetic surface) at Keeneland and when you watch a replay of that race, you'll see that the horse never handled the surface. Why trainer Steve Asmussen decided to run Pyro in this race made me scratch my head. It didn't make sense. So, I am throwing that race out. Prior to the Blue Grass, Pyro had been in the money in EVERY race he ran. He's a strong closer and the Derby is loaded with speed. While I wish the trainer had selected a "name" jockey, Shaun Bridgmohan seems to truly fit this horse to a T and Pyro is my pick to win it all.

2. Gayego: Had raced on the West Coast on the polytrack and if it weren't for his impressive win in the Arkansas Derby, run on dirt, I may have tossed him out. However, the Arkansas Derby was an impressive win and he earned a 103 speed figure in the process. Gayego won stalking the pace which will come in handy tomorrow. So, if speed holds up tomorrow, Gayego is the speed horse you need to include in your betting.

3. Visionaire: This is a very live longshot. His speed figures are not impressive; but, this closer finds a way to get into the money in all but his last race. His last race was the Blue Grass and Visionaire showed a similar dislike of the polytrack as shown by Pyro. Visionaire's last race is a throw-out. The other thing I like about Visionaire is his win in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 8th. That race was run on a very rainy day with the track being a sea of mud. Visionaire relentlessly closed along the rail to get up and win by a nose over Texas Wildcatter. His speed figure in the mud was a 98; his best speed figure yet. Jockey Jose Lezcano really fits this horse well and I believe you'll see a big effort from Visionaire tomorrow.

4. Tale of Ekati: Beat War Pass in the Wood Memorial. Yes, they say it was the slowest win time for the Wood since 1952; however, the track was drying out from heavy rains earlier in the day and although the track was listed as "good", it was a heavy, tiring track and Tale of Ekati was all out to get by an exhausted War Pass. A similar effort tomorrow puts him in the thick of it.

5. Denis of Cork: Lightly raced colt who has raced and won at Churchill Downs. Has run and won in the slop. Picks up Calvin Borel as his jockey--the jockey who won last year's Derby aboard Street Sense. Borel is the leading rider at Churchill Downs and he can save ground at the rail and close in the stretch.

The Bets:

$5 WPS: #9 Pyro
$2 WPS: #8 Visionaire & #16 Denis of Cork

$2 Exacta: 8, 9, 16 with 2,8,9,16,19

$1 Trifecta Box: 2,8,9,16

$1 Superfecta: 8,9,16 with 8,9,16 with 2,19 with 2,19

Good Luck, may the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 7:04 PM 1 bets placed