Racetrack Lenny

Preakness Gets Us Back--We Hope!

Mine That Bird certainly didn't scare off the competition as a field of 13 will go in tomorrow's Preakness.

Tomorrow's wagers will all depend on the weather and track bias. There is a 50% chance of showers & thunderstorms tonight with a 40% chance for same tomorrow. The track can go from fast to sloppy with just one heavy shower. Pimlico is also a weird racetrack in that when it is well harrowed and made fast, it can create a heavy speed bias-meaning many races are won wire-to-wire. If the first 10 races are won by front runners, then my bets will tend towards speedsters. Tough race to handicap. Anyway, here goes:

1. Big Drama-John Velasquez (10/1): Likes to run on the front end and will have to tomorrow having drawn the rail. 7 lifetime starts and has been in the money in each of them. Won a Grade 3 stakes at a mile & a sixteenth back in December. Won the Grade 2 Swale Stakes at 7 furlongs in March. Has the look of a sprinter and I can't see him getting the 1-3/16th. Carries 126 lbs for the first time while being asked to go the longest he's been. Will be a pace factor; but, won't last.

2. Mine That Bird- Mike Smith (6/1): Impressive winning the Derby; but, when you look at his lifetime record, it makes the Derby seem like a fluke. Ran an impressive 105 speed rating in the Derby where previously his best had been 81. So, he literally improved by 20 lengths to take the Grade 1 Derby. Go figure. Maybe the horse loved the mud. Maybe Calvin Borel figured the horse was a one run closer who needed to make one sustained run to win. Whatever the case, Borel opts to ride the filly in this race. I think this horse has BOUNCE written all over him and a return to previous form puts him somewhere mid-pack. Bettable if 12/1 or higher. At 6/1 or less, no thanks.

3. Musket Man- Eibar Coa (8/1): 7 lifetime starts and in the money each time. Consistently runs speed ratings ranging from 91 to 98. Just got nosed out of the place spot in the Derby. If allowed to somehow get in the clear, he's very playable.

4. Luv Gov- Jamie Theriot (50/1): Just broke his maiden in his last out. In way over his head. For fans of Eliot Spitzer and his hookers.

5. Freisan Fire- Gabriel Saez (6/1): A dreadful trip in the Derby where he got hurt by getting a badly cut foot. Trainer Larry Jones says the injury is healed and Freisan Fire turned in a 5 furlong work in 58-2/5ths. Looks ready to me. This could be another Hansel. In the 1991 Derby, Hansel was the 5/2 favorite who finished 10th. He then rebounded in the Preakness to win by daylight. If you throw out the Derby, this horse stands out. We'll pick him for the win.

6. Terrain- Jeremy Rose (30/1): A 91 speed rating as his best won't get it done here. Doesn't sport a bad record; however, his best has come on synthetic surfaces and he hasn't shown an affinity for dirt. Running style is that of a closer; but, a closer who can't break 100 in speed rating. Really up against it here.

7. Papa Clem- Rafael Bejarano (12/1): Has run a race a month since Feb. finishing 2nd twice, winning the Arkansas Derby and getting bounced around like a pinball in the Derby where he finished 4th some 7 lenghts back. Does own a 101 speed rating from the Arkansas Derby. However, his 5 furlong workout over a fast track this week was a dreadfully slow 1:05. May be tired and may be starting to tail off. Signs aren't good.

8. General Quarters- Julien Leparoux (20/1): This horse is the most experienced in the field having 12 lifetime starts. He is a gem of consistency--he follows every good race with a bad race. The Derby was a bad race for him; so, if he runs to form, he should run well tomorrow. A lifetime speed best of 102 can put him in the thick of things and at 20/1, he's a live longshot.

9. Pioneer Of The Nile- Garrett Gomez (5/1): Wasn't going to win on Derby day; but, the fact that he held on for 2nd after being part of the suicidal pace in the Derby was impressive. Question is- did that suicidal pace take something out of him? Maybe not. He ran a 4 furlong workout in a strong 47-3/5ths. Except for the Derby, he is a synthetic track horse. The muddy track at Churchill Downs played more to his like of soft tracks. Pimlico does whatever they can to make sure their track is like concrete which I don't think Pioneer of The Nile will care for.

10. Flying Private- Alan Garcia (50/1): A mule in horse clothing. For D. Wayne Lukas fans only.

11. Take The Points- Edgar Prado (30/1): A 99 speed rating over the dirt in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park back in Jan. His next 2 races were sub-par over synthetic tracks. Is a stalker and if he can improve his speed rating into triple digit territory, he could be an overlooked longshot. The problem is an outside post which will make him have to shoot out of the gate like a cannon to get to his stalking position. That may take too much out of him. If he doesn't leave quickly and gets stuck mid-pack, it will be a new running style that may not be to his liking. Trainer Todd Pletcher all along has pointed this horse for the Preakness. Interesting.
At high odds, may be worth a $2 WPS saver bet just in case.

12. Tone It Down- Kent Desormeaux (50/1): EVERY Preakness has a "horse for the course" and this is this year's "horse for the course". Unlike past years, this horse has no chance. Up until 2 races ago, he was running in claiming races. He ran in the ungraded Federico Tesio stakes. With a rail trip and a 1/2 mile in a pedestrian 48-4/5ths, he was backing up in the stretch to have choked in the final sixteenth to finish a tiring 3rd. That effort got him a speed rating of 80. His owners will be able to say "We ran in the Preakness"....just plug in the word "last" after the word "ran".

13. Rachel Alexandra- Calvin Borel (8/5): The super-filly tests the boys. Some say the extreme outside post hurts. I think it helps. She won't get bounced around and Calvin Bo-rail will find a way to keep her out of trouble before he slips up the rail with her. Her last 4 speed ratings are 100, 103, 101, 108. All came with hand-rides. She's never been shown the whip. On the negative side, she's had 4-6 weeks rest between races and has never run back with only 2 weeks rest. That being said, she's a deserving favorite and her sire, Medaglia D'Oro, guarantees speed and stamina. The filly allowance of 5 lbs (121 vs. 126) is a factor in her favor. Very dangerous.

The Bets:

$1 Exacta #5, #8, #13 over #2, #3, #5, #8, #11, #13 (total $15)

$1 Triple: #5, #8, #13 with #2, #3, #8, #11 with #5, #8, #13 (total $20- I think--I suck at math)

$5 WPS #5 (total $15)

$5 WPS #8 (total $15)

$2 W #11 (total $2)

Total bet: $67

We're not taking the $210 bath we took in the Derby.

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 8:01 PM