Racetrack Lenny

Wrong Bird Wins Belmont

Yesterday's Belmont will be one of the more memorable ones for me simply because the way I thought the race would play out is pretty much how it unfolded. The end result was my saver bet on Summer Bird afforded a nice reward at 11.90/1. Had Mine That Bird hung on for 2nd, a nice exacta would have made for a very rewarding day. In any event, I collected more than I bet; so, that's a win.

In a race lacking speed, the experts were predicting that Charitable Man would go for the lead and go as far as he could. The same was predicted of Miner's Escape. Instead, it was stalker, Dunkirk, who changed tactics and went for the lead. And did he ever go for it! The opening quarter was 23-2/5ths and the half in 47, a very strong pace. I was sitting confident that my closers would save the day. At the far turn, Dunkirk continued his strong pace. Charitable Man & Mr. Hot Stuff, made a run at him; but, both began to wilt and Dunkirk was now joined by a fast coming Mine That Bird who was forced to go three wide to get into contention. Mine That Bird has a 1/2 length lead; but, somehow Dunkirk found another gear and remained a stubborn foe by coming on again in the stretch. What both horses didn't see was that jockey Kent Desormeaux had Summer Bird in 5th gear and he was closing powerfully with every stride. About 100 yards out, Summer Bird blew by and Mine That Bird had to settle for a heartbreaking 3rd as Dunkirk got 2nd by a little under a neck.

Dunkirk will need a rest now since the Belmont took a lot out of him. He had to be hosed down after the race since Dunkirk gave it all he had. For a horse to set the fractions he did and still finish 2nd was impressive. I didn't think he had it in him.

I felt bad, as did the crowd, for Calvin Borel. It would have been a great story for him to get his personal triple crown. He was gracious in defeat. However, you would have thought that Borel's agent or his trainer could have enticed an owner/trainer in one of the earlier races running a hopeless longshot to give Borel a mount just so he could get a feel for the track and know where things were. By not doing that, I believe Borel pushed the button too soon on Mine That Bird and the rest is history. Same thing happened in 2004 with Stewart Elliott on Smarty Jones. Doesn't anyone learn from past mistakes?

Well, it's now a waiting game for the Haskell at Monmouth and the Travers at Saratoga to see who turns up to keep this competitive year going.

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 5:46 PM 0 bets placed

The Belmont: 2009

Well, tomorrow's the big day. I sure wish we hadn't had 3 days of rain; but, the forecast is for clearing skies tomorrow and we hope Craig Allen is right. If it clears early enough, maybe the track will be fast by post time.

1. Chocolate Candy- (Garrett Gomez) 10/1: His wins have come over the polytracks in California. He ran on dirt for the first time in the Derby and finished a respectable 5th. A couple of good workouts at Belmont Park. Running style is that of a stalker; however, in a field devoid of speed, he may be up much closer than usual. He has never had a speed figure in triple-digits; but, perhaps a fast dirt track will show us what he's made of. He has Seattle Slew in his bloodline. Not impossible; but, not probable.

2. Dunkirk- (John Velasquez) 4/1: A $3.7M yearling purchase who was not raced at age 2. As a 3 year old, the Belmont would be his 5th lifetime start. His owners are treating him more gently than their grandmother's china! Ran sensationally in the Florida Derby finishing 2nd to Quality Road, who was subsequently injured. In finishing 2nd, Dunkirk posted a speed figure of 108 which would get the job done here. His Ky. Derby was a disaster. He stumbled at the start, was advancing into 9th position on the backstretch when he had to steady twice. The end result was a lacklustre 11th place finish. I wish he had more seasoning. Of concern is 3 out of his 4 races show "stumbled leaving the gate". If he can't get out of the gate well, you expend energy trying to catch up. Too untested to take 4/1 on him.

3. Mr. Hot Stuff- (Edgar Prado) 15/1: Another West Coast polytrack specialist where he won his maiden in Feb. after 5 starts. His lone start on dirt was at the Ky. Derby and that didn't go so well. He was soundly bumped twice and was squeezed at the start. He also didn't care for mud and finished 15th. If you're willing to toss out the Derby, then he looks like someone that might hit the bottom of a superfecta ticket (i.e. finish 4th) as he does have some closing kick.

4. Summer Bird- (Kent Desormeaux) 12/1: His 3rd place finish in the Arkansas Derby earned him a 94 speed rating. He made up 15 lenghts in the stretch to get 3rd. In the Ky. Derby, he was wide throughout and was fanned 7 wide at the top of the stretch to finish 6th. He finished better than it looks on paper. Desormeaux is an improvement over Chris Rosier. Keep in mind, Desormeaux is seeking redemption from last year's brown-bagger performance by Big Brown. His bloodline includes both Birdstone and Grindstone; so, we know distance isn't a problem. A very live longshot.

5. Luv Guv- (Miguel Mena) 20/1: Named after N.Y. ex-Gov. Eliot Spitzer. Took him 10 races before winning his maiden. D. Wayne Lukas immediately threw him into the Preakness where he was beaten 9 lengths. A versatile runner, he can take the lead, stalk or close. He just can't seem to win. In over his head. It would be a riot if he did win and Gov. David Paterson handed the trophy to the horse named for his predecesor.

6. Charitable Man- (Alan Garcia) 3/1: Yes, he did win the Peter Pan Stakes 4 weeks ago and posted a 100 speed figure. He raced behind Hello Broadway who opened up by 8 lenghts at a suicidal pace and Charitable Man ran by him like Hello Broadway was standing still...because Hello Broadway WAS standing still. In the Peter Pan, Charitable Man toted 116 lbs. Tomorrow he carries 126. 10 lbs. makes a big difference. He's a front runner and I don't think he will get the distance after only 4 lifetime starts. At 3/1, he's a huge underlay.

7. Mine That Bird- (Calvin Borel) 2/1: I want in the worst kind of way to see Calvin Borel win his own jockey triple crown. I just don't think it will happen, despite Borel's guarantee. Mine That Bird has been a different horse since they changed tactics and have turned him into a one run closer. Deep closers rarely win the Belmont; but, it has happened. This week's rains will likely have the racetrack deeper than usual. Borel will go right to the rail and the rail may be the deepest part of the track tomorrow. Inexplicably, Borel is listed to ride in one earlier race---on the turf! How idiotic is that? His agent should have been able to coax some owner to allow Borel to ride at least a longshot in a dirt race so Calvin can get a feel for the track and know where he is at all times. Belmont is the only 1-1/2 mile track in the country and it is different than any other track. Borel not having an early mount is a mistake. That being said, Mine That Bird has proven that he belongs and I expect him to do well.

8. Flying Private- (Julien Leparoux) 12/1: A not too bad Arkansas Derby, a horrific Ky. Derby (last) and a dramatic improvement in the Preakness earning him his first triple-digit speed rating. Will he "bounce" after that effort or is he on an improving form cycle? I believe he's on the improve and he's playable underneath in your triples.

9. Miner's Escape- (Jose Lezcano) 15/1: His best speed rating is an 89 in the Frederico Tesio at Pimlico on May 2nd. He was on the lead through Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade fractions. His win would be one of the greatest upsets of all time.

10. Brave Victory- (Rajiv Maragh) 15/1: A Nick Zito horse that appears to be on an improving form cycle. His Peter Pan run wasn't bad...wasn't good; but, wasn't bad. He can close when he wants to or he can stalk when he can. Between Zito's Miner's Escape & Brave Victory, the latter has a better chance.

With no speed in this race, I think Charitable Man will inherit the lead with Miner's Escape pressing him. They'll be joined by Luv Guv who will try to stay 2 or 3 lenghts back hoping he can last the distance. I expect the track may be listed as "good" or "wet fast". It will be a tiring track. I expect the half mile to go in 49-4/5ths, a crawl. Chocolate Candy will be mid-pack stalking and begins to make his move approaching the far turn. Velasquez, Desormeaux and Prado will get busy on their mounts and Borel will bide his time with Mine That Bird. As they turn for home, Chocolate Candy will have a short lead with Flying Private getting closer and Dunkirk just a length behind. Summer Bird will be about 3 lenghts back; but, have dead aim on the leaders. Calvin Borel will realize the rail is dead and swing to the outside with Mine That Bird. Through the stretch, Dunkirk will fade leaving the "birds" to battle it out with Calvin Borel getting his personal triple crown and Summer Bird right there with him for a "tweet tweet" exacta. Flying Private flattens out a bit and gets 3rd while Mr. Hot Stuff closes belatedly for 4th.

BETS:

$2 exacta: 4,7 with 1,3,4,7,8 ($20)

$1 triple: 4,7 with 4,7 with 1,3,8 ($6)

$1 triple: 4,7 with 1,3,8 with 4,7 ($6)

$2 WPS: 4,7 ($12)

Total bet: $44

Good luck, may the horse be with you.

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 8:05 PM 0 bets placed

Preakness Gets Us Back--We Hope!

Mine That Bird certainly didn't scare off the competition as a field of 13 will go in tomorrow's Preakness.

Tomorrow's wagers will all depend on the weather and track bias. There is a 50% chance of showers & thunderstorms tonight with a 40% chance for same tomorrow. The track can go from fast to sloppy with just one heavy shower. Pimlico is also a weird racetrack in that when it is well harrowed and made fast, it can create a heavy speed bias-meaning many races are won wire-to-wire. If the first 10 races are won by front runners, then my bets will tend towards speedsters. Tough race to handicap. Anyway, here goes:

1. Big Drama-John Velasquez (10/1): Likes to run on the front end and will have to tomorrow having drawn the rail. 7 lifetime starts and has been in the money in each of them. Won a Grade 3 stakes at a mile & a sixteenth back in December. Won the Grade 2 Swale Stakes at 7 furlongs in March. Has the look of a sprinter and I can't see him getting the 1-3/16th. Carries 126 lbs for the first time while being asked to go the longest he's been. Will be a pace factor; but, won't last.

2. Mine That Bird- Mike Smith (6/1): Impressive winning the Derby; but, when you look at his lifetime record, it makes the Derby seem like a fluke. Ran an impressive 105 speed rating in the Derby where previously his best had been 81. So, he literally improved by 20 lengths to take the Grade 1 Derby. Go figure. Maybe the horse loved the mud. Maybe Calvin Borel figured the horse was a one run closer who needed to make one sustained run to win. Whatever the case, Borel opts to ride the filly in this race. I think this horse has BOUNCE written all over him and a return to previous form puts him somewhere mid-pack. Bettable if 12/1 or higher. At 6/1 or less, no thanks.

3. Musket Man- Eibar Coa (8/1): 7 lifetime starts and in the money each time. Consistently runs speed ratings ranging from 91 to 98. Just got nosed out of the place spot in the Derby. If allowed to somehow get in the clear, he's very playable.

4. Luv Gov- Jamie Theriot (50/1): Just broke his maiden in his last out. In way over his head. For fans of Eliot Spitzer and his hookers.

5. Freisan Fire- Gabriel Saez (6/1): A dreadful trip in the Derby where he got hurt by getting a badly cut foot. Trainer Larry Jones says the injury is healed and Freisan Fire turned in a 5 furlong work in 58-2/5ths. Looks ready to me. This could be another Hansel. In the 1991 Derby, Hansel was the 5/2 favorite who finished 10th. He then rebounded in the Preakness to win by daylight. If you throw out the Derby, this horse stands out. We'll pick him for the win.

6. Terrain- Jeremy Rose (30/1): A 91 speed rating as his best won't get it done here. Doesn't sport a bad record; however, his best has come on synthetic surfaces and he hasn't shown an affinity for dirt. Running style is that of a closer; but, a closer who can't break 100 in speed rating. Really up against it here.

7. Papa Clem- Rafael Bejarano (12/1): Has run a race a month since Feb. finishing 2nd twice, winning the Arkansas Derby and getting bounced around like a pinball in the Derby where he finished 4th some 7 lenghts back. Does own a 101 speed rating from the Arkansas Derby. However, his 5 furlong workout over a fast track this week was a dreadfully slow 1:05. May be tired and may be starting to tail off. Signs aren't good.

8. General Quarters- Julien Leparoux (20/1): This horse is the most experienced in the field having 12 lifetime starts. He is a gem of consistency--he follows every good race with a bad race. The Derby was a bad race for him; so, if he runs to form, he should run well tomorrow. A lifetime speed best of 102 can put him in the thick of things and at 20/1, he's a live longshot.

9. Pioneer Of The Nile- Garrett Gomez (5/1): Wasn't going to win on Derby day; but, the fact that he held on for 2nd after being part of the suicidal pace in the Derby was impressive. Question is- did that suicidal pace take something out of him? Maybe not. He ran a 4 furlong workout in a strong 47-3/5ths. Except for the Derby, he is a synthetic track horse. The muddy track at Churchill Downs played more to his like of soft tracks. Pimlico does whatever they can to make sure their track is like concrete which I don't think Pioneer of The Nile will care for.

10. Flying Private- Alan Garcia (50/1): A mule in horse clothing. For D. Wayne Lukas fans only.

11. Take The Points- Edgar Prado (30/1): A 99 speed rating over the dirt in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park back in Jan. His next 2 races were sub-par over synthetic tracks. Is a stalker and if he can improve his speed rating into triple digit territory, he could be an overlooked longshot. The problem is an outside post which will make him have to shoot out of the gate like a cannon to get to his stalking position. That may take too much out of him. If he doesn't leave quickly and gets stuck mid-pack, it will be a new running style that may not be to his liking. Trainer Todd Pletcher all along has pointed this horse for the Preakness. Interesting.
At high odds, may be worth a $2 WPS saver bet just in case.

12. Tone It Down- Kent Desormeaux (50/1): EVERY Preakness has a "horse for the course" and this is this year's "horse for the course". Unlike past years, this horse has no chance. Up until 2 races ago, he was running in claiming races. He ran in the ungraded Federico Tesio stakes. With a rail trip and a 1/2 mile in a pedestrian 48-4/5ths, he was backing up in the stretch to have choked in the final sixteenth to finish a tiring 3rd. That effort got him a speed rating of 80. His owners will be able to say "We ran in the Preakness"....just plug in the word "last" after the word "ran".

13. Rachel Alexandra- Calvin Borel (8/5): The super-filly tests the boys. Some say the extreme outside post hurts. I think it helps. She won't get bounced around and Calvin Bo-rail will find a way to keep her out of trouble before he slips up the rail with her. Her last 4 speed ratings are 100, 103, 101, 108. All came with hand-rides. She's never been shown the whip. On the negative side, she's had 4-6 weeks rest between races and has never run back with only 2 weeks rest. That being said, she's a deserving favorite and her sire, Medaglia D'Oro, guarantees speed and stamina. The filly allowance of 5 lbs (121 vs. 126) is a factor in her favor. Very dangerous.

The Bets:

$1 Exacta #5, #8, #13 over #2, #3, #5, #8, #11, #13 (total $15)

$1 Triple: #5, #8, #13 with #2, #3, #8, #11 with #5, #8, #13 (total $20- I think--I suck at math)

$5 WPS #5 (total $15)

$5 WPS #8 (total $15)

$2 W #11 (total $2)

Total bet: $67

We're not taking the $210 bath we took in the Derby.

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 8:01 PM 0 bets placed

The Aftermath....

Congratulations to jockey Calvin Borel (Bo-rail) on a masterful ride on 50/1 Mine That Bird. It was pretty obvious that Borel was elated at his improbable win. He is a truly American story. A hard scrabble life that has now reaped him rewards he thought never achievable. It is so nice to see someone who truly LOVES his job. My hat's off to him.

Now to the post-mortem. Once again, the luckiest horse wins the Derby because of too large a field, the weird positioning of the starting gate which only serves to encourage a roller-derby start, and a heavy muddy track that proved tiring in the ridiculously swift fractions set yesterday. The field was then helped by the unfortunate scratch of I Want Revenge who developed heat in an ankle and was properly withdrawn so as not to imperil the horse. A very humane and gutsy call by the connections of I Want Revenge. Of course, my handicapping fully included I Want Revenge as part of the pace scenario. I was expecting him to somehow get in the clear and be 4 or 5 lenghts off the front end. With the scratch, the complexion of the race changed.

You could handicap the race 1,000 times and there is no way you could make a logical case for a victory by Mine That Bird. The way he won makes me think that even if I Want Revenge had not scratched, we would have had the same outcome. Horses, like humans, have their good days and their bad days. Obviously, Mine That Bird had his best day on a day that mattered. For the others, bad luck intervened.

Freisan Fire, the post-time favorite, got the worst of it when he was soundly bumped on both sides, grabbed a quarter and suffered a gash that bled all through the race. You could tell the horse was in some measure of distress as he had his head sideways and was not making up ground. The horse was being evaluated today to determine how serious the injury is and to make sure no infection sets in.

Join In The Dance set a ridiculous fast pace, going 22-4/5 for the opening quarter in a mile and a quarter race. Of course, there were plenty others dumb enough to keep him company. As the field turned for home, the front end was inhaling fumes which allowed tired horses to drift out and the rail opened up for Calvin Bo-rail. The rest was history.

Pioneer of the Nile turned in an excellent effort given he had never raced on dirt and he was part of the suicidal speed duel. He may be the real deal and is a dangerous Preakness horse. Papa Clem & Musket Man fared quite well themselves.

So, we'll wait 2 weeks for an honest horse race at Pimlico called the Preakness.

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 4:23 PM 0 bets placed

Derby Day

Well, we're just under 48 hours to Derby post time. The weather will be a factor as there is a 50% chance of showers on Friday and a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms on Derby day. We may not get a fast track and I have factored that into my "analysis".



As I say every year, the Derby is truly THE trip race of each year. In too big a field, the best horse doesn't necessarily win; the victory usually goes to the luckiest horse. If the field were limited to 12, we'd have an honest horse race; but, I don't think I'll ever see that.



Another pet peeve is not coupling horses with the same owner & trainer. West Side Bernie and Atomic Rain should run as an entry as should Regal Ransom and Desert Party. It's not fair to the betting public to have them try to figure out which horse is going to be sent. And now, my thoughts:



1. West Side Bernie- Last win came in the Ky. Cup Juvenile, a Grade 3 race for 2 year olds run last September over the synthetic track. Since then, has run against some of today's entries. West Side Bernie's stablemate Atomic Rain will likely set a lively pace to set things up for this closer. However, this horse's speed figures suggest there would have to be a complete collapse on the front-end for West Side Bernie to have a chance. Don't be fooled by the 2nd to I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial. Despite a pedestrian pace in a field of mediocrities (except for I Want Revenge), West Side Bernie couldn't close the sale. Finally, a closer in post position 1 is the kiss of death.



2. Musket Man- his last 3 races have been good. He scored his highest speed rating in his last race, the Illinois Derby which he won. Therein is the problem. The victory was such a dramatic improvement that this horse has "bounce" written all over him. Now, if the Illinois Derby wasn't a fluke, Musket Man looms an upset possibility.



3. Mr. Hot Stuff- Never raced on dirt with his only victory being a maiden win just 3 races ago. His breeding screams turf. Pass.



4. Advice- Stone closer who needs a fast pace to be able to close into. His lone dirt start was dismal. His victory in the Lexington was over a synthetic track and it was visually impressive as he closed from dead last in a field of 11 to win by a length. However, when you look at the fractions for that race, the front end totally collapsed and Advice was able to take advantage. He has yet to break 100 in his speed ratings and many in this field have their 100 or better. Can't see him sneaking into the top 4.



5. Hold Me Back- Lone dirt try at Aqueduct saw him defeated by 14 lenghts. Hold Me Back is a different animal on synthetic tracks. His breeding suggests a good turf horse. I don't think this horse will take kindly to dirt.



6. Freisan Fire- Last 3 races have been impressive. He seems to do just what he needs to do in order to win. He has raced exclusively on dirt and handled a sloppy track well. His A.P. Indy breeding suggests distance won't be a problem. He has had a 7 week layoff which is a bit of a concern; but, a 57 seconds 5 furlong work this past Monday was sensational. Is he ready to fire? or was the work too fast? Freisan Fire has the look of a winner. The pick.



7. Papa Clem- Has done his best with Rafael Bejarano who gets the mount. Set the pace in the Louisiana Derby (his only try on a sloppy track at a mile and a sixteenth) and tired in the stretch to get 2nd. He followed that up with a nice score in the Arkansas Derby. He got a great speed figure that day. However, when you look at his races, he follows a good speed rating with a mediocre one and that in & out form concerns me. But, I still think Papa Clem has the look of a live longshot and may be worth a stab at a price.



8. Mine That Bird- Looked terrific at Woodbine on the synthetic track. When switched to dirt, mediocre results. High speed rating of 92 has him in some mighty deep water. For bird lovers only.



9. Join In The Dance- We certainly won't be joining him in a victory dance because this "distance challenged" horse just cannot get a mile and a quarter. A victory would pay a boxcar price. Good chance for last place.



10. Regal Ransom- One of 2 Godolphin Stable entries, the other being Desert Party. Both should have been coupled. Caught a favorable pace in his last race in Dubai. 2 good workouts at Churchill Downs. How will the trip affect him? Traditionally, overseas speed figures are higher than those assigned in the U.S. Don't see him getting a relaxed pace. Pass.



11. Chocolate Candy- Seems to be peaking at the right time with him knocking on the door of a triple speed figure. That being said, he has exclusively raced on synthetic tracks and it is a crap shoot if he'll take to dirt in a racing situation. His last 3 starts were in fields of 7,6 and 7 respectively and 20 is a whole new ballgame. Even with veteran jockey Mike Smith getting the mount, seems up against it.



12. General Quarters- Maybe it's been the sentimental hype about 75 year old trainer Tom McCarthy; but, I like this horse's chances. I consider him a live longshot. He does have a triple digit speed figure and his racing style is that of a grinder. He's always mid-pack in large-ish fields and this is a horse that could pick up the pieces with luck.



13. I Want Revenge- Since switching to dirt, this animal has been a totally different horse. I witnessed him in the Gotham stakes where he drew away by 8 lenghts with ease under young 19 year-old Joe Talamo. I witnessed the Wood Memorial where I Want Revenge literally walked out of the starting gate, spotting the field at least half a dozen lenghts. Talamo did not panic and raced at the back of the pack. At the far turn, he made contact with the field and began weaving his way through. In mid-stretch, Talamo tried to get through a seam and got through at the last minute to post a 1-1/2 length win. It was impressive. It will do both horse and jockey well that they faced and overcame adversity. I wish the odds were more favorable; but, you leave this horse out of your bets at your own peril. Based on his current form, he will be in the top 3.



14. Atomic Rain- Will run like an atomic bomb. His name is speed and he will try to go as far as he can to set it up for his stablemate West Side Bernie (see #1). Another candidate to finish last.



15. Dunkirk- 3 lifetime starts and 4-1 odds make this horse a bad betting proposition. Yes, he's shown talent, finishing 2nd to Quality Road who withdrew from the Derby due to injury. But, even the great Curlin finished 3rd in the Derby. If Dunkirk somehow floats up to 10-1 or so, then you might want to put a few bucks on him. Demand value.



16. Pioneer of the Nile- 4 straight victories over synthetic tracks. Does just enough to win and has posted excellent speed ratings. His sire, Empire Maker, suggests this horse will get the distance and take to the mud. Concerns: Don't think he'll handle dirt well, has been running in small fields, outside post position. Seems nuts to toss out a horse with such a good record; but, I'm tossing him out.



17. Summer Bird- His owner and trainer will be able to say one day "we had a horse in the Derby", that's all.



18. Nowhere to Hide- His lone win was breaking his maiden, has been awful since. This horse may hide, but, not with my money.



19. Desert Party- the other half of the Godolphin entry which is running uncoupled from Regal Ransom. Won the Sandford at Saratoga as a 2 year old on a muddy track as the 4/5 favorite. Hugged the rail and romped home by 4 lenghts to post a 100 speed figure. Followed that up a month later with a 6th place finish in the Hopeful, beaten by 10 lenghts. Puzzling. Shipped off to Dubai where he has a decent record. His breeding by Street Cry and Tabasco Cat suggest speed and stamina. Workouts have been impressive and I believe this is the half of the Godolphin entry that is truly going to be sent. Interesting that owner/trainer left regular rider, Frankie Dettori, behind and went with Ramon Dominguez. May press a hard pace...and may last. Can't ignore him at 15-1.



20. Flying Private- As recently as 4 races ago, this horse was running in claiming races. Got a suck-up 2nd on the synthetic track in the Lanes End, which got him just enough earnings to back his way into this race. For D. Wayne Lukas fans only. A win would prompt the headline "Mule Wins Kentucky Derby".

My bets:

$10 WPS- #6 -Freisan Fire

$5 WPS- #13- I Want Revenge

$2 WPS- #12- General Quarters & #19- Desert Party

$2 Win- #7- Papa Clem

$2 Exacta Part Wheel: #6- Freisan Fire & #13- I Want Revenge over #6- Freisan Fire, #7- Papa Clem, #12- General Quarters, #13- I Want Revenge, #19- Desert Party

$1 Triple Part Wheel: #6,#13 with #6,#7, #12, #13, #19 with #6, #13

$1 Superfecta Part Wheel: #6, #13 with #6,#7,#12, #13, #19 with #6, #13 with #2, #6, #7, #12, #13, #19

Good Luck! May the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 7:43 PM 0 bets placed

Friesan's on Fire

4 major prep races this weekend and Friesan Fire is well positioned to be the Derby favorite.

In the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby run yesterday at a mile and a sixteenth, favorite Hello Broadway (2/1-Eibar Coa) stalked the pace set by 135/1 longshot Perfect Bull and looked like a threat at the 3/4 pole before flattening out to finish a dismal 7th. No excuses for the favorite given parade-like fractions of 24, 48-2/5ths and 1:12-2/5ths. 2nd choice, the 5/2 General Quarters ran last and closed belatedly to pass tired rivals and finish 5th. We can excuse his lacklustre finish given the slow fractions. The third choice in the wagering at nearly 6/1 was Musket Man (Daniel Centeno up) ran mid-pack, then faded to next to last before making one strong, sustained run to get up by a neck over 35/1 longshot Join In The Dance. I don't think the Derby winner was in this race.

At Oaklawn Park, the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes was run featuring the much-heralded Old Fashioned who was sent off as the prohibitive 2/5 choice under Ramon Dominguez. Old Fashioned suffers from the "Big Brown" problem: the horse must have an outside post to do well. Saddled with post position 1, Old Fashioned got suckered into a suicidal speed duel with 6/1 Silver City. After cutting fractions of 22-2/5ths and 46 flat, both horses were sucking wind at the head of the stretch. That gave 56/1 longshot Win Willy the chance to circle the field from last to score by 2 widening lengths. Unless the connections of Old Fashioned can figure out a way to get their horse to rate, he will be an "also ran" in the Derby. A disappointing finish.

At Santa Anita, the San Felipe Stakes (Grade 2, 1-1/16th miles), drew a small field of 6 over the "all weather" track. The highly regarded Pioneer of the Nile was sent to the post as the overwhelming 1/4 favorite and did not disappoint; although, the fractions were pretty pedestrian and the competition was what you might find in an allowance race. Until I see the horse dominate rivals on dirt, I'm skeptical.

The real show of the weekend was at the Fair Grounds in Louisiana where the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby was run. 2/1 favorite, Friesan Fires (Gabriel Saez up) took off in the sloppy stretch under a hand-ride to score by over 7 lenghts at the wire. 2/1 was a true gift! Papa Clem (Rafael Bejarano) was sent off at 5/1 and cut the fractions over a very sloppy track but could not compete with the winner; although, he did hold off the late running Terrain (8/1 under Julien Leparoux). Giant Oak, Flying Pegasus, Uno Mas and Patena finished 4th, 6th, 7th and 8th respectively. None of them really fired and you wonder if they just didn't care for the mud.

So, right now, Friesan Fire has won on fast tracks, around one turn, at 7 furlongs, on a sloppy track, at a mile and a sixteenth and looks like the real deal. Hopefully, luck remains with him to stay healthy and bring us our just rewards on the first Saturday in May.

May the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 8:40 PM 0 bets placed

The Gotham

Move over Haynesfield, the new star in town is I Want Revenge who shipped east off the synthetic tracks and pulled away under jockey Joe Talamo to score by 8-1/2 widening lenghts. Sent off as the 2nd choice at 3/1, I Want Revenge stalked 2/1 favorite, Mr. Fantasy (Alan Garcia, up) as Mr. Fantasy tired through the lane. 7/2 third choice, Imperial Council, under Rajiv Maragh, closed strongly to just nip Mr. Fantasy for the place spot. No one was going to catch I Want Revenge.

Haynesfield was sent off at 5/1, despite having won his last 3 starts; however, all wins came over the Aqueduct winter track and against suspect competition. Being the high weight at 120 lbs. did not help. Haynesfield was never really a factor, even though he moved up to 5th after 3 quarters in 1:12-3/5ths just 4 lengths off the leader. However, he proceeded to flatten out beating just one horse, 82/1 Giant Ryan who just didn't belong.

The connections of I Want Revenge were so impressed with his dirt debut that they've already committed to the April 4th Wood Memorial. Looks like the real deal.

May the horse be with you.

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 7:28 PM 0 bets placed

Let The 2009 Games Begin

The prep race season has begun in anxious anticipation of the 2009 Derby on May 2nd. Gulfstream Park has had the Grade 3- Holy Bull Stakes at a mile and an eighth and the Grade 2-Hutcheson Stakes at 7 furlongs. The Fair Grounds has had its Grade 3- Risen Star Stakes at a mile and a sixteenth and Aqueduct has had its ungraded Whirlaway Stakes at a mile and a sixteenth. Let's take them in order.

1/30/09- The Hutcheson drew a small but competitive field of 6 with Hello Broadway being sent off as the 2/1 favorite. Under Edgar Prado, Hello Broadway cut fractions of 23-3/5 and 46 flat before being overtaken in the stretch by Capt. Candyman Can the 5/2 second choice under Julian Leparoux. Capt. Candyman Can looked good drawing away to win by a lenght and a half giving evidence that he wanted more than 7 furlongs. It was a useful race. A disappointment was New York's own Break Water Edison sent off at 5/2 under Alan Garcia. While settling in mid-pack throughout the race, when it came time to run, Edison shined like a 10 watt light bulb, finishing last beaten better than 10 lenghts.

1/31/09- The Holy Bull saw the much anticipated Danger To Society sent off at 9/5 under Robby Albarado. Danger To Society posed no danger to the 6 horses that finished ahead of him in a field of 10. He just never fired. 5/2 second choice West Side Bernie under Elvis Trujillo closed well to be 3rd; however, with a half in nearly 48 seconds, there wasn't a hot enough pace to run into. I'm still not sold on him; but, will watch his next start. The also oft mentioned Beethoven under Calvin Borel raced 3rd most of the way and just flattened out in the strecth to finish a non threatening 4th at 5/1 odds. Given the sluggish pace and the horse being a stalker, this was a disappointing result and it may have been due to his "needing a race". Let's see how he does in his next start and hope he doesn't draw post position 10 again. Ooops, forgot to mention the top two: Saratoga Sinner won by 3 parts of a length at 12/1 while Bear's Rocket got 2nd at 33/1. I suspect the owners of these longshots have Derby fever already.

2/7/09- The Whirlaway Stakes run over the inner winter track at beautiful Aqueduct saw 2/5 favorite Haynesfield romp to win by over 6 lenghts in front every step of the way under Ramon Dominguez. 7/2 second choice Peace Town (out of Peace Rules) prompted the pace but quickly wilted in the lane to finish 5th in a field of 6. An impressive win by Haynesfield against a lackluster field. We'll wait to see how he does against real competition.

2/7/09- The Risen Star was the race where we may have seen a potential Derby winner. A large field of 13 competitive horses proved to be excellent experience for the cavalry charge in May. Second choice Friesan Fire under Gabriel Saez stalked the pace 4th before swinging to the outside at the top of the stretch to prevail by 2 widening lengths at a good clip. 2/1 favorite Giant Oak under Edgar Prado was full of run but had nowhere to go after an awful trip. He was steadied twice, got shuffled back to 11th and managed to finish 5th after the rail opened up way too late. Giant Oak is eligible to improve. New York's Flying Pegasus was dismissed at 10/1 and took an overland journey to finish a strong 2nd. For those of you who relish longshots, Code of Honour was looking to pull off a colossal upset at 243/1--yes, two hundred forty three to 1. He held 2nd until the top of the stretch when he plummeted to last after prompting a fast pace.

The Derby Future Wager Pool 1 is now open and many of the horses named above are on the list. Beethoven: 15/1. Capt. Candyman Can: 10/1. Flying Pegasus: 30/1. Freisan Fire: 12/1. Giant Oak: 15/1. Haynesfield: 50/1. Hello Broadway: 50/1. West Side Bernie: 50/1. The current favorite at 5/2 is "all other 3 year olds". Considering that a "field" horse has won the Derby 4 out of the last 10 years, the "field" bet seems safe enough; but, I'm putting some money on Freisan Fire, Giant Oak & West Side Bernie.

Good luck, may the horse be with you!

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 8:38 PM 0 bets placed

More Brown Fallout

Now that we're two weeks past the Belmont Stakes, the "blame game" has settled down because there are other distractions taking people's attention.

It didn't take long for the owner to blame the trainer; the trainer to blame the jockey; and the jockey blamed the weather, and, and, and.......

Big Brown's connections have pointed him to the Haskell Handicap at Monmouth Park on August 3rd. Michael Iavarone of IEAH Stables said: "We'll race in the Haskell because Saratoga is so hot & humid and Monmouth being on the Jersey Shore is a lot cooler". Puhleeeze. The Haskell generally turns out to be a "stand out" horse racing against a few Monmouth regulars--with maybe another or two legitimate contenders coming down. It is not what the Haskell used to be. I'll get some heat for this; but, in my mind, the Haskell should be downgraded in class. It truly is not a Grade 1 stake race. Owner Iavarone may not have been to Monmouth too many times during a heat wave. It can be just as oppressive--perhaps even more so than Saratoga.

A few facts are clear: Except for his 1st race, Big Brown miraculously drew the outside post in his races except for the Belmont. The horse was hard to rate needing to be on or close to the lead--in the clear. This meant the horse always raced wide (in the 3 or 4 path) and never, ever took turns well--always veering to the outside. You never saw Big Brown race along the rail. That's a training issue and it cost the horse plenty on June 7th. In addition, the fact that the horse had not been administered his steroid, Winstrol, had to have something to do with his form reversal. Finally, let's not forget that up until June 7th, the warmest day had gotten to 80 degrees with low humidity. On Friday, June 6th, the weather was showery and the high temperature was 67 degrees. On Belmont day, the high temperature was a record-breaking 96 degrees with oppressive humidity. Some animals, like humans, have a hard time quickly acclimating to that type of temperature change. Case closed.

Now we move on to see if in the Haskell, Big Brown can prove the Belmont was a fluke--or not.

May the horse be with you!



Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 12:39 PM 2 bets placed

The Agony of De-Feet

The racing gods do not like owners/trainers that like to brag and consider a victory a "foregone conclusion". The IEAH Stable and Dick Dutrow are having a dish of crow today...a dish best served cold.

For as much as racing fans wanted to see a Triple Crown yesterday, they were sorely disappointed when Big Brown threw in an absolute clunker of a race in finishing last in the Belmont Stakes. He was eased in the stretch by jockey Kent Desormeaux and in the official chart of the race, they couldn't estimate how many lengths Big Brown lost by--one word said it all: "distanced".

The headline award goes to New York Newsday which read: "Burned At The Stakes". In my 37 consecutive years of going to the Belmont, I can't remember the last time the weather was as hot, humid and oppressive as it was yesterday. There was no way to get cool and you needed to drink a lot of water because sweat just poured off you even sitting still. With spring temperatures having been cooler than normal right up until Friday (when the high as 63), the emergence of the "dog days of August" on June 7th may have proven to be Big Brown's undoing.

Even though Big Brown had suffered a quarter crack to his hoof, the crack was healing nicely and his handlers applied an acrylic patch to make sure the crack didn't get worse or that dirt would get into the crack. I really would like to believe that the owners/trainers would not have risked their horse if they didn't think he was 100%. Why? Because they already have a $50 MILLION stud deal and they were not going to mess around with risking that money by having their horse get hurt.

On paper, the only horse that was going to give Big Brown a run for the money was Casino Drive the Japanese import who ran a huge race in Belmont's Peter Pan stakes 3 weeks ago. Casino Drive showed a Beyer speed rating of 107 which is right up there with Big Brown. Casino Drive's jockey in the Peter Pan was none other than Big Brown's rider, Kent Desormeaux. Desormeaux had publicly stated that that was the one horse he feared.

Earlier this week, Casino Drive must have stepped on a stone or some other hard object and bruised his left rear hoof. The owner/trainer monitored the bruise and the bruise was showing heat--an indication of a possible infection. They began treating the horse with antibiotics; but, the trainer/owner did not think it wise to run Casino Drive at anything less than 100% so as to avoid any injury or discomfort to the horse. In major stake races, trainers have up to 4 hours before post time to call the track stewards and racing secretary to declare the scratch. Up until the scratch got announced yesterday, Casino Drive was a solid 9/2 second choice in the wagering. When they announced the scratch at the track, it literally had the audience gasp. They had wanted to see the test between the two horses; but, it was not to be. My hat goes off to Casino Drive's owner and trainer for making the right call in doing what was right by the horse instead of opting to take any chances. Believe me, they had to be bitterly disappointed because they traveled 7,000 miles from Tokyo pointing Casino Drive to the Belmont. I hope they decide to keep him in the U.S. and have him run in some of the summer classics at Saratoga.

With the scratch of Casino Drive, there wasn't a person at the track that didn't think Big Brown would be wearing the crown. Why? The lone speed in the race was an animal named Da'Tara who had finished 2nd in the Barbaro Stakes at Pimlico on May 17th and earned his best speed figure yet--a 92. A 92 speed rating versus Big Brown's 114 would mean Da'Tara would be in the 212 area code while Big Brown was in the 516 area code. It wouldn't even be close. The rest of the field were a bunch of plodders--all closers who would all try to pass the "front runners" at the end. Of all the closers, the only horse you could really make a case for an upset was Denis of Cork. Big Brown got sent off at a generous 30 cents to the dollar. With the scratch of Casino Drive, Denis of Cork became the 7-1 second choice. A few surprises in the wagering: Tale of Ekati got sent off as the 3rd betting choice at 14-1 having had 2 victories at Belmont Park. He was the "horse for the course". The closers out of the Preakness- Macho Again and Icabad Crane were both sent off at 17-1. The Belmont also drew a maiden horse- Guadalcanal who should have been 1,000-1 and somehow was sent off at 25-1. The controlling speed in the race, Da'Tara got dismissed as the longest shot in the field at 38-1.

In the post parade, the fans were wildly cheering Big Brown and Kent Desormeaux acknowledged the applause with a wave of his hand. Big Brown looked pretty relaxed to me and I thought he so outclassed his competition that the question would be how many lengths he would win by. When the gate opened, Da'Tara came out like a shot out of a cannon and immediately went to the front. Big Brown at the rail got away second as Tale of Ekati came away third. Kent Desormeaux let Tale of Ekati overtake him and get into 2nd position in order for Desormeaux to get Big Brown out into the clear in the 3 or 4 path off the rail--his customary position. As the field circled the clubhouse turn and made its way onto the long Belmont backstretch, Da'Tara had established a tenuous one length lead with Tale of Ekati 2nd by a length and Big Brown settled into 3rd just biding his time. There was a gap of 5 lengths to the plodding Anak Nakal and then a gap of a dozen lengths to the other 5 closers with Denis of Cork being the last of them all.

The fractions for the race were sensible. 23-4/5ths for the opening quarter and 48-1/5th for the half mile. The field raced this way until the far turn. At that point, Da'Tara was still in front and had now opened up by 2 lengths and you could see that Tale of Ekati was starting to struggle to keep pace. Big Brown was still on the far outside and fans were wondering when would Kent Desormeaux say "go". However, you could see on the infield screen how hard Kent Desormeaux was hand-urging Big Brown to go and Big Brown was just throwing his head left and right fighting his jockey's instructions. At that point, I turned to my 3 friends Les, Jerry and Kyle and told them- no Triple Crown today. Belmont's track announcer Tom Durkin said it all when he said "Big Brown is laboring and is not responding". The crowd was now getting silent. The unthinkable was about to happen. Big Brown was not only going to lose, he was going to lose big.

At the top of the stretch, jockey Alan Garcia opened up 5 lengths with Da'Tara who had plenty left in the tank given the sensible pace for the mile and a half race. Anak Nakal had momentarily taken 2nd with Macho Again looming on the outside 3rd and then a gap of about 6 lengths and Denis of Cork had re-connected with the field and was coming up the rail 4th. Big Brown went very, very wide on the turn and was now 5th and dropping back steadily. Kent Desormeaux did the right thing and began to ease the horse as there was no point going to the whip. Why abuse the horse when it's crystal clear he isn't going to win? I applaud Kent for being kind because he could have used the whip out of frustration that he would not win the Triple Crown. Desormeaux showed real class.

At the finish, Da'Tara was still in front by 5 lengths but he was drifting to the middle of the track, a sure sign of a tired horse; however, he struggled across the finish line 1st and win the 140th Belmont in 2:29-3/5ths--one of the slowest Belmont Stakes in history. Denis of Cork took 2nd by 3 lengths while Anak Nakal and Ready's Echo dead-heated for 3rd. The crowd was in shock. The impossible had happened. Big Brown got soundly beaten--by a field he should have totally dominated. What went wrong?

My theory is the horse did not react well to the heat and humidity. Some horses relish the heat; others don't. Was the hoof an issue? Maybe; but, it seemed like Big Brown was jogging fine which he couldn't do if he were lame. When Big Brown struggled to the finish line last, you could see he was "lathered up" which is a tell-tale sign of a horse who has spent a lot of energy. Obviously, something went wrong because his performance was such a reversal of form that it was just too bad to be true. While there had been some question as to whether he could get the mile and a half distance, the field he was facing was so inferior that even a tiring Big Brown would still win.

Owners and trainer will go over every inch of the horse to determine what went wrong; but, I think 96 degrees, high humidity and no so much as a breeze yesterday proved to be Big Brown's undoing.

Well, history got made...not the kind you want to see. So, we now go into the 31st year of a Triple Crown drought and we'll start seeing which 2 year old begins racing at Saratoga this summer might become the next contestant for the Triple Crown.

Until next time,

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 2:58 PM 0 bets placed