Work, Work, Work
Lots of workouts this weekend, March is just around the corner. Declan's Moon, a Derby favorite, worked 7 furlongs at Hollywood Park in 1:25-3/5. Nice to see a long workout in preparation for the Derby distance. Nick Zito's High Fly drilled a bullet workout-5 furlongs in 59 seconds & change. Scipion worked 6 furlongs in 1:14-4/5 at Santa Anita. Filly hopeful Sweet Catomine worked 5 furlongs in 59-3/5 seconds, quite an impressive turn of speed for the filly. Sweet Catomine is a nice filly; I just think there is a pretty good crop of 3 year olds that it may be tough for Sweet Catomine to beat the boys; but, you never know. At least Sweet Catomine has a name you can sing the Neil Diamond hit "Sweet Caroline" to!
Bet with your head, not over it!
Racetrack Lenny
Oh, Those Allowance Races
Derby hopefuls continue to workout and actually race in preparation for the roses on the first Saturday in May.
Sun King ran his 1st race of the season at Gulfstream Park. In the 10th race one mile allowance event, Sun King (Edgar Prado up) was sent off as the 4/5 favorite. 2 other Derby potentials also raced in the same event. Survivalist (Jerry Bailey up) and Monarch Lane (John Velasquez up) who both went off at 5/2. Everything else in the race was a double digit longshot. Sun King, out of Charismatic, was much the best pulling away impressively after circling the top runners on the turn. Sun King won by nearly 6 widening lengths. Survivalist and Monarch Lane ran 2, 3 and completed a trifecta that paid a whopping $9.40. The good news out of this race was that Sun King, one of my early picks for the Derby, showed some versatility. Last year, Sun King always rode the rail and waited for a seam to open up. Today, he got off the rail, circled horses and pulled away. Being out of Charismatic, he should have the stamina to last a long distance. He could be the sleeper horse of the Derby.
A good number of workouts this week. Afleet Alex worked 6 furlongs in 1:13-3/5; not earth-shattering but a good tightener as he readies himself for the upcoming Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Rockport Harbor also had his first workout in over a month, and after suffering a bruised hoof. He went 7 furlongs in 1:27-2/5; not too shabby. It's good to see John Servis trying Rockport Harbor for stamina. Could he be this year's Smarty Jones?
Nick Zito's High Limit ran a 7 furlong workout in a sensational 1:25-2/5. It was faster than Zito wanted; but, the exercise boy said High Limit just wanted to go.
New York's local horse- Naughty New Yorker ran a 5 furlong work at Belmont Park in 1:05 flat. He must have been pulling a stagecoach. A very pedestrian time. I don't see him as a Derby contender; although, his connections very much have Derby fever.
Out on the West Coast, 2 nice works for Consolidator and Going Wild at Santa Anita. Consolidator ran a 5 furlong work in 58 flat- very fast. Going Wild ran 6 furlongs in 1:12-1/5, not great but not bad either.
Tuesday will be March 1st and March begins the series of stakes races leading up to the big day.
Bet with your head, not over it!
Racetrack Lenny
Bettor Beware
That time of the year when the bettor doesn't know if a trainer is sending his horse for real or for a good workout. That's why it's nearly impossible to bet well regarded Derby contenders. Highly touted horses that have name recognition are generally well overbet and become very unappealing as far as risk/reward goes. The way to bet these races is to find a medium longshot that has a chance to beat the favorite.
Case in point yesterday was the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita. Highly regarded Consolidator was sent off as the favorite in a 4 horse field. While Consolidator was prominent throughout, he tired in the stretch and was a well-beaten 4th. The distance was 7 furlongs--the Derby is a mile and a quarter. Not a good sign. For those looking for a horse that could beat Consolidator and picked Fusaichi Rock Star, you were nicely rewarded with a $17 win mutuel. So, Fusaichi Rock Star has re-entered the Derby mix.
The feature race at Oaklawn Park featured the unbeaten Munificence ridden by Calvin Borel. The distance was 1 mile. Surprisingly, Munificence was sent off at 7/2, so, he was very bettable. He had the lead the entire way at some quick fractions until he got caught at the end by the favorite, Greater Good, ridden by John McKee. Sent off at 1/2, Greater Good was 18 lengths back and dead last at the half mile marker. He then started a strong close, circling the field and just getting up at the wire. Munificence finished 2nd; however, the chart of the race shows that Munificence drifted out late indicating a tiring horse. Can he go an extra quarter mile? Maybe--but you'd need to get Calvin Borel off the horse. Borel only knows speed and this horse needs someone who can ration out his speed.
Other news: Declan's Moon had a great 7 furlong workout at Hollywood Park this week. His connections are obviously going long trying to put some stamina in Declan. Afleet Alex had a 4 furlong work in 47 seconds under former regular rider Jeremy Rose. The good news is that Afleet Alex's connections have announced that John Velasquez will be the regular rider during the Triple Crown campaign.
Nick Zito's trainees- High Fly and Sun King both worked 5 furlongs very nicely. Look for Sun King to be heard from during this Triple Crown season.
More prep races to come. Bet with your head, not over it!
Let The Games Begin!
The race to the Derby has begun with 2 significant prep races run today. One at New York's Aqueduct racetrack and the other at the Fair Grounds in Louisiana. The results- a muddled mess.
It's the time of year if you don't know whether highly touted horses are out for real or just out for the workout. For those that backed Galloping Grocer in the mile and one sixteenth Whirlaway Stakes in New York, you came away sorely disappointed. Sent off at 1-2, Galloping Grocer had the lead but was pressured heavily by Diamond Wildcat. Still, the fractions were not all that demanding. Scrappy T, a pony foaled close to the
Bluegrass Family residence, had the misfortune of landing Post 10 with only a short run to the first turn. Jockey Alan Garcia compromised Scrappy T's chances by not being patient. At the half mile mark, he moved Scrappy T from last to 3rd in one huge sweeping move. That cost him in the late stages when he got passed by eventual winner Sort it Out who came from out of the clouds to prevail at 19-1. He was followed by another deep closer- Naughty New Yorker. The shots you heard in the stands were the bridge jumpers who bet Galloping Grocer with reckless abandon despite his not racing in a very long time.
The Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds, also at a mile and a sixteenth proved to be a similar race. Scipion Way (Gary Stevens up) closed from dead last to prevail at 10-1. The highly touted Harlington, who had had some sensational works, ran evenly throughout finishing 6th as the 7/5 favorite. He was never better than a non-threatening 5th. Maybe out for exercise? Highly touted Storm Surge ran evenly at 6-1 and never threatened at any stage.
Of note, Rockport Harbor, from the same connections that brought you Smarty Jones, ran a 6 furlong workout at Oaklawn Park in 1:01-3/5. Not sensational; but, the plan was just to get him revved up for the upcoming Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby--the same route Smarty Jones took to the Run for the Roses.
May the horse be with you!
Racetrack Lenny
