Racetrack Lenny

Bettor Beware

That time of the year when the bettor doesn't know if a trainer is sending his horse for real or for a good workout. That's why it's nearly impossible to bet well regarded Derby contenders. Highly touted horses that have name recognition are generally well overbet and become very unappealing as far as risk/reward goes. The way to bet these races is to find a medium longshot that has a chance to beat the favorite.

Case in point yesterday was the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita. Highly regarded Consolidator was sent off as the favorite in a 4 horse field. While Consolidator was prominent throughout, he tired in the stretch and was a well-beaten 4th. The distance was 7 furlongs--the Derby is a mile and a quarter. Not a good sign. For those looking for a horse that could beat Consolidator and picked Fusaichi Rock Star, you were nicely rewarded with a $17 win mutuel. So, Fusaichi Rock Star has re-entered the Derby mix.

The feature race at Oaklawn Park featured the unbeaten Munificence ridden by Calvin Borel. The distance was 1 mile. Surprisingly, Munificence was sent off at 7/2, so, he was very bettable. He had the lead the entire way at some quick fractions until he got caught at the end by the favorite, Greater Good, ridden by John McKee. Sent off at 1/2, Greater Good was 18 lengths back and dead last at the half mile marker. He then started a strong close, circling the field and just getting up at the wire. Munificence finished 2nd; however, the chart of the race shows that Munificence drifted out late indicating a tiring horse. Can he go an extra quarter mile? Maybe--but you'd need to get Calvin Borel off the horse. Borel only knows speed and this horse needs someone who can ration out his speed.

Other news: Declan's Moon had a great 7 furlong workout at Hollywood Park this week. His connections are obviously going long trying to put some stamina in Declan. Afleet Alex had a 4 furlong work in 47 seconds under former regular rider Jeremy Rose. The good news is that Afleet Alex's connections have announced that John Velasquez will be the regular rider during the Triple Crown campaign.

Nick Zito's trainees- High Fly and Sun King both worked 5 furlongs very nicely. Look for Sun King to be heard from during this Triple Crown season.

More prep races to come. Bet with your head, not over it!

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 11:05 AM