Sunday, April 11, 2004

Derby Update

Huge weekend of prep races for the Run for the Roses: The Wood Memorial, The Blue Grass Stakes are covered here: Arkansas Derby in next article for space's sake.

Wood: Over 17,000 fans at Aqueduct couldn't decide on a favorite; so, at the last tick of the odds, Value Plus was sent off as the ever so tepid 5/2 choice. Tapit, off at 5/1, was dead last about 20 lengths back in the early going and got rolling after a half-mile to reach contention at the head of the stretch. He prevailed by a 1/2 length in a very gutsy win over Master David who ran a good race; he just got outfinished. Eddington completed the trifecta just a nose back in third. Other Derby hopefuls- Swingforthefences loomed a huge threat at the head of the stretch, even getting the lead by a head ever so briefly, but then faded to 4th. He is very doubtful for the Derby. Value Plus was a huge disappointment having the lead at the 1/2 mile mark and checking in a very tiring 6th; seems like no Derby for him. Consecrate threw in a real clunker and was never a factor finishing 9th beaten better than 15 lengths. Closer Little Mathh Man never closed and NY Bred Sinister G got fried by the torrid pace beating just one horse.

Blue Grass: Folks bet their lungs on Lion Heart sending him off at 4/5. They got beat soundly by The Cliff's Edge who closed in workmanlike fashion to prevail at almost 6/1. Limehouse finished a creditable 3rd running evenly around the track. Action This Day was never a factor and the bettors knew it sending him off at 10/1. No Derby for him. He continues the Breeders Cup jinx. No winner of the Breeders Cup has come back to win the Derby. The streak endures. Bob Baffert's Derby hope, Preachinatthebar, put in a dreadful performance. He was up early with Lion Heart and he stopped like he was shot finishing a very dull 7th beaten better than 15 lengths.

Arkansas Derby: Smarty Jones is the real deal. Despite post #11, a muddy track and getting off a step slowly, Stewart Elliott gunned him to the lead 5 wide into the 1st turn and battled with Purge up to the far turn when Elliott asked Smarty to run and he accelerated to lead by 4 at the top of the stretch. Only stretch-runner Borrego was doing any serious running at the end to get 2nd but just could not get to the winner. Pro Prado rallied along the rail to get 3rd. It was open lengths to the rest of the field.

So, look for Smarty Jones to perhaps be the favorite on May 1st with The Cliff's Edge, Lion Heart, Tapit, Master David and Eddington taking some money as well.

As for Minister Eric, he may have a big problem getting into the Derby based on earnings. Only the top 20 stakes earners get into the Derby. Minister Eric's connections now seem likely to pay the price for running their horse in a claiming race and an allowance turf race. Maybe someday someone will explain that boneheaded strategy to me.

May the horse be with you!

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