One Week Away
Last week's Lexington Stakes at Keeneland and the Frederico Tesio at Pimlico didn't put the fear of God into those going in the Derby. The Lexington was won by
Showing Up, trained by Barclay Tagg--he of Funny Cide fame. Cornelio Velasquez was up and stalked the pace mid-pack before making his move at the top of the stretch. Sent of as the 3/2 favorite, he did not disappoint winning by a comfortable lenghth and a quarter. Gotham Stakes winner,
Like Now, Fernando Jara up, alternated on the lead with
Fast Parade and
Bear Character. That effort, along with a bit of bumping in the lane, took some starch out of the 4-1 shot; but, he did hold the place spot. Derby hopeful,
Greeley's Legacy, finished 5th while racing 5 wide in a dull effort.
The Tesio was won on a sealed, sloppy track by
Ah Day, the 2-1 favorite. Ridden by Pimlico regular, Ryan Fogelsonger, he was on or close to the lead and prevailed by 5 widening lenghts. The only other Derby hopeful in this contest was
Scanlon's Song, who had raced in the Wood Memorial. Sent off at 7-2, the off track compromised his chances. Speed was holding up in the slop and the best Scanlon's Song could do was pass tiring rivals.
Churchill Downs opened today and they got their first stake race of their season with the Derby Trial. Favorite (9-5)
Noonmark, Shaun Bridgmohan up, is going nowhere. He finished a well beaten 6th--beating only 1 horse,
Protagonus; who, unfortunately, broke down at the 5/16th mark. With the description of what happened (a right front leg break), it would appear the horse may have been put down. The winner was 5-1
Record, Rafael Bejarano up. Record just got up in the final stride to catch the very tenacious 54-1 longshot
Spotsgone with veteran rider, Earlie Fires up. Spotsgone was almost gone just missing by a neck.
Well, the Derby field will be announced Wednesday. I'll put on my thinking cap and do the best I can.
May the horse be with you,
Racetrack Lenny
Bellamy Road Redux?
Blue Grass Stakes: For those that backed
Sinister Minister based on my convoluted logic, congratulations. You were rewarded with nearly 9-1 for the effort. I must admit, when I saw 22-4/5 for the opening quarter, I was thinking Sinister Minister would sink in the stretch. Oh, ye of little faith! Garrett Gomez was a huge upgrade in rider for this front runner. Gomez thought he had the horse and he would find out by zipping on the lead and play "catch me if you can". In response, Sinister Minister freaked and won by better than a dozen lengths--shades of Bellamy Road. The difference is that Sinister Minister ran a strong race in the California Derby and a stronger race yesterday. The big question is: Did the effort take too much out of him and will he be a "bounce" candidate? We'll find out on May 6th, won't we?
As for other Derby hopefuls, we spotted some pretenders who just don't belong.
Bluegrass Cat, sent off as the 9-5 favorite despite his tepid Tampa Bay Derby performance, was a rather distant 2nd early and ran a rather lacklustre race finishing 4th, beaten a solid 20 lengths.
First Samurai, sent off the 5-2 second choice, was suspect coming in. The word was that he is a sprinter and that 1-1/8th miles was beyond his capability. That question got answered with a 5th place finish, beaten 25 lengths. He was rather prominent up to the 3/4 pole and then it was a steady tiring. Look for him in 6f or 7f sprints. The lightly raced
Strong Contender, needed at least a 2nd place finish to have enough earnings to get into the Derby. Strong Contender ran evenly througout and was a tiring 3rd. No Derby for him.
Arkansas Derby: 1-2 favorite
Lawyer Ron did not disappoint. However, jockey John McKee had to move much earlier than usual with his horse. McKee had elected to go the shortest route to the wire--riding the rail. However, with
High Cotton showing the way and
Superfly &
Private Vow both very close to his outside, McKee looked like he was going to get pinned down at the rail. McKee sensed this and began some brisk urging to get Lawyer Ron to run into a hole ahead of him to take the lead just after an opening quarter in 23 flat. Lawyer Ron is a one run horse and the question was could he handle a sustained run to the wire? The answer was yes; but, he was a tiring horse nearing the wire drifting out noticeably. I wonder if this effort will take some starch out of him in 3 weeks. Other Derby contenders:
Steppenwolfer was the only horse, at 7-1, that was doing any serious running at the end. He closed from 11th to get 2nd from a tiring
Private Vow. Private Vow, off at 5-1, ran an even race, made a mild bid in the stretch and just wasn't good enough. Private Vow's connections need to rethink if rider Shaun Bridgmohan is the right jock for this horse. Bridgmohan doesn't seem to fit Private Vow. One-run closer,
Red Raymond, off at 13-1, galloped at the back of the pack and never reached contention.
So, with 3 weeks to go to the Derby, it looks like someone could take the race running wire to wire. It all depends on post position. The serious contenders appear to be
Brother Derek, Barbaro, Sinister Minister, Lawyer Ron, Sweetnorthernsaint and Bob & John. Could be a very interesting betting race.
All for now, may the horse be with you,
Racetrack Lenny
Blue Grass & Arkansas Derby
Blue Grass Stakes: To be run at Keeneland at 1-1/8th miles.
First Samurai gets the 8/5 morning line favorite tag; however, I think he can be beaten. The sleeper of the deck is
Sinister Minister. He's in at 15-1, which is a huge overlay. He ran 2nd in the California Derby as the 9/5 second choice to Cause to Believe. Jockey Martin Garcia made the lead then hit the rail twice during the strecth run and was overtaken by Cause to Believe. Sinister Minister held 2nd by 14 lenghts. He gets a huge upgrade in rider with Garrett Gomez. This horse has a solid chance.
Nick Zito's
Little Cliff also gets a jockey change from Jeremy Rose to Corey Nakatani. He will be handled a bit more aggressively and with the rail post position, he could make some noise tomorrow at 10/1.
As much as I have liked
Bluegrass Cat, the effort in the Tampa Bay Derby was so dull that I would want more than 5/2 to bet him. Sent off at Tampa Bay at 2/5, Bluegrass Cat ran against a uninspired bunch and was life & death to hold second. Will pass.
Bet: $2 Exacta Box: Little Cliff, Sinister Minister, Strong Contender
$5 WPS: Sinister Minister
Arkansas Derby- To be run at 1-1/8th miles at Oaklawn. This race is nearly a rematch of the Rebel Stakes.
Lawyer Ron at 7/5 looks unbeatable on paper. Those thought to have a chance against him are
With A City, Private Vow, Red Raymond, Simon Pure, Superfly and Sayhellotolarry. Comments:
With A City's win at 48/1 in the Lane's End at Turfway Park is suspect. He came from way out of it to win it on Turfway's Polytrack--which is a rubberized type surface that is deep, easy on the feet and produces some remarkable results for horses who haven't run well before. He's listed morning line at 15/1 and you'd have to get that or better to take a stab at him. I'm siding against.
Private Vow, was sent off at 2/1 in the Lane's End and came up empty. Private Vow just likes to go and jockey Shaun Bridgmohan had a strangle hold on the horse in the Lane's End. When it came time to run, Private Vow was empty. If Bridgmohan rates him better tomorrow, he has a chance.
Red Raymond closed from way back in the Rebel Stakes (also at Oaklawn) at 22/1. The pace scenario seems likely to be the same--fast fractions that can be closed into. He's not a throw out.
Simon Pure, a Wayne Lukas trainee, set the fast pace in the San Felipe Stakes last month and failed to last. With more patient handling, perhaps he lasts to get a check.
Superfly, was dull in the Lane's End, and gets a positive jockey change to Willie Martinez.
Sayhellotolarry last won as the favorite in an $62K Optional Claiming race. While his win was impressive, this is a big step up in class.
Bet: $2 Exacta Part Wheel: Lawyer Ron & Red Raymond over Lawyer Ron, Red Raymond, Simon Pure and Private Vow.$2 WPS- Red Raymond$5 WPS- Lawyer RonMay the horse be with you!
Racetrack Lenny
What To Make of Yesterday
3 major stakes and the picture is getting clearer. At Santa Anita,
Brother Derek, (1/2- Alex Solis) had everything his own way. With the scratch of Indy Wildcat, the only other early speed in the race was gone and Brother Derek took advantage winning wire to wire by 3-1/4 lengths. The final time was an excellent 1:48 flat.
Point Determined (7/2- Rafael Bejarano) and
A.P. Warrior (4/1- Corey Nakatani) came in 2nd and 3rd respectively. Closer
Sacred Light stumbled badly at the start and lost all chance right as the gates opened. Brother Derek has established himself as the one to beat on May 6th. But, before the coronation, the race must be run.
Meanwhile at Hawthorne, the Illinois Derby was run at a mile and an eighth.
Sweetnorthernsaint (6/5-Kent Desormeaux) was a runaway winner by nearly 10 lenghts in 1:49:4/5. While a slower time than the Santa Anita Derby, Sweetnorthernsaint had to overcome the far outside post and he tracked pace-setter
Mister Triester ( 27/1- Brice Blanc). Blanc really slowed things down in the 2nd quarter which is why Mister Triester was able to safely hold the place spot. Other Ky. Derby hopefuls:
Cause to Believe was sent off at 2-1 and ran evenly to capture 3rd.
Racketeer, off at 4-1 and
My Golden Song, off at 6-1 ran with the pace but came up empty in the stretch. Not a good sign when they want (and need) to go a mile and a quarter.
Aqueduct's Wood Memorial turned into a slop-fest as heavy rain, wet snow and sleet made for a most un-springlike day.
Keyed Entry, who just got beat in the shorter distance Gotham, got sent off as the prohibitive 4/5 choice under Edgar Prado. Keyed Entry went right for the lead and set very swift fractions over the slop. Longshot
Marco's Tale (20/1- Norberto Arroyo) applied steady pressure before tiring. At that point, 2-1
Bob and John took up the chase. Although West Coast based, Bob and John had no problem handling the off going and drew on even terms with Keyed Entry and began to pull away at the wire.
Jazil (15-1, Fernando Jara), was dead last at the head of the stretch and closed like a bat out of hell to nail the place spot when he passed a rubbery-legged Keyed Entry.
Deputy Glitters (9-1, Jose Lezcano) who has Derby hopes just didn't handle the off track and finished a tiring 6th after running 4th most of the way. Don't throw him out of your Derby wagers just yet.
That's it for now, may the horse be with you.
Racetrack Lenny
The Big 3
Tomorrow brings 3 major Derby prep races.
Illinois Derby- Run at 1-1/8th miles at Hawthorne Park, this race has attracted a field of 10 and, in some ways, is a better "betting" race than the Wood Memorial or the Santa Anita Derby.
Malameeze (8/1), off his latest form, gets the rail which will help. John McKee also stays aboard. Closer
Itsallaboutthechase (12/1) gets an inside post and if he can't close tomorrow, forget the Derby. However, he will be overbet since it's a name a lot of people will recognize. This will be an interesting race. The speed drew all the outside post positions.
Racketeer (5/1), My Golden Song (5/1) and
Cause to Believe (5/2) will be hustled out of the gate quickly. Kent Desormeaux aboard
Sweetnorthernsaint (4/1) will have to do the same but just keep off those three in order to have something left in the stretch. Remember, Sweetnorthernsaint ran 3rd in the Gotham having the outside post there as well. He looked better than he finished: Bets: $2 exacta box:
Malameeze,
My Golden Song, Sweetnorthernsaint. $5 WPS:
Sweetnorthernsaint.Santa Anita Derby: Not a great betting race. On paper, a 4 horse race.
Brother Derek, a deserving favorite, just presents no value at
3/5. As my late uncle Al was fond of saying: "Hardly a man is still alive that paid the mortgage at 3/5". Also, the trainer and owner are pointing to the first Saturday in May and they may not be running all out to capture this race. I will throw him out of my bets. With good speed in this race, look for 2 closers to be winging at the end:
A.P. Warrior (7/2) and
Sacred Light (9/2). In a 6 horse field, not a lot of money to be made: Bet:
$5 Exacta Wheel Sacred Light over ALL. Wood Memorial: Run at 1-1/8th miles at New York's Aqueduct Racetrack. Forecast is for rain or drizzle so an off track is a certainty. Another poor betting event. 4 contenders and 5 pretenders. Speed figures on
Deputy Glitters (7/2), Keyed Entry (5/2), Greeley's Legacy (6/1) and
Bob & John (2/1) are 115, 114, 112 and 105 respectively. Despite having the 4th highest speed rating,
Bob & John has been installed at the lukewarm favorite. All 4 had tough races their last out; so, I'm looking at 2 horses that are poised to improve and take advantage if the top 4 falter. They are:
Platinum Couple (30/1) and Marco's Tale (15/1). Although their speed ratings are in the high 90's, an improvement by them and a regression by the top 4 puts them right in the thick of things. The other 3-
Jazil, Scanlon's Song and Niagara Causeway just have much too much to improve to be a factor.
Bets: $2 Exacta Box:
Deputy Glitters, Marco's Tale, Platinum Couple. $10 WPS:
Marco's Tale. May the horse be with you,Racetrack Lenny
March Madness- Part II
Barbaro is a grass horse. Barbaro has never run on a fast track. Barbaro only ran once on a sloppy track when a race was rained off the turf. What is Barbaro doing in the Florida Derby? Winning it is what he was doing. Sent off as the 8/5 favorite under Edgar Prado, Barbaro stalked the swift pace made by Sharp Humor (6-1 with Mark Guidry) and prevailed by a 1/2 length after a very long drive. Sharp Humor was not disgraced in any way. Thought to be only a 7 furlong sprinter, he held well at the 1-1/8 mile distance nearly pulling it off wire to wire. So, grass or no grass pedigree, Barbaro seems to be a legit contender a month from now.
Other Derby hopefuls in the Florida Derby were Sunriver, 4-1, who finished 3rd 3-1/2 lenghts off the lead. Hesanoldsalt, sent off at 39-1 and running an even 4th before retreating to finish a tiring 5th. Flashy Bull (4-1, Rafael Bejarano) showed nothing cantering about the track to finish a very non-threatening 7th. Finally, stone closer Rehoboth, under new jock Javier Castellano and sent off at 9-1, broke slowly and then got slower as the race progressed finishing dead last. Rehoboth's last race was a troubled 5th when he was making a move; maybe that effort took something out of him. The horse is regressing at the wrong time.
Meanwhile at the WinStar Derby at Sunland Park, 4/5 favorite Wanna Runner (Victor Espinoza) ran off with it by 4 widening lenghts. Doctor Decherd, a prominent Derby hopeful earlier this year, turned in a dismal effort finishing 8th beaten 28 lenghts. Sent off at 7/2 and sitting behind a blistering pace, there was nothing in the tank when it came time to run. Maybe there is something physically wrong. It was just too bad an effort to be true.
Well, I thought I would have some money for Derby day. Alas, LSU could not get around the UCLA defense and LSU went down to defeat. So, I will have to find betting monies elsewhere.
May the horse be with you.
Racetrack Lenny
