Two Major Preps This Weekend
Oaklawn Park started the prep weekend with the Southwest Stakes, a Grade 3 race run at one mile on the dirt for a purse of $250K. Favored
Turf War (Calvin Borel up) showed nothing racing at the back of the pack and then offering a very mild rally into 7th before flattening out to finish 9th in a field of 11. Perhaps as his name suggests, he may be more at home on turf. The well-earned victory went to
Denis of Cork (Robby Albarado up) who was the 9/2 third choice of the betting public. Sitting mid-pack through demanding fractions of 22-3/5ths, 45-1/5th,
Denis of Cork commenced a strong rally at the 3/4 pole and was moving like a freight train by the top of the stretch. He scored by 2-1/4 lengths going away.
Denis of Cork has stamped himself as a legitimate contender.
Meanwhile today at Gulfstream Park,
War Pass (Cornelio Velasquez up) made his 2008 debut in a $60K allowance race, skipping the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. The allowance race run at a mile on the dirt saw
War Pass sent off at 1/20 (yes, a nickel to the dollar) and he toyed with the short field of 5. The second choice was 9/1 and the exacta returned a paltry $2.60! When you win like this against inferior competition, it doesn't prove anything.
The Fountain of Youth, run at a mile and an eighth was a competitive affair with a $350K purse that attracted a full field of 12. Favored
Monba (Edgar Prado up) at 7/2 put in a dismal performance finishing last while never a factor. Instead it was
Cool Coal Man (Kent Desormeaux up) who got sent off at 7/1 who stalked the pace from 4th and had enough left to win by a hard fought 1/2 length. Another Derby hopeful
Elysium Fields (Eibar Coa up) went off 8/1 and finished a strong 2nd.
Court Vision (Garrett Gomez up), sent off at 4/1 closed from last to get a non-threatening third. The much touted
Z Humor (Cornelio Velasquez up) went off at 14/1 and closed mildly to finish a very non-threatening fourth. Somehow, I don't think the Derby winner is coming out of this race.
That's it for now. May the horse be with you.
Racetrack Lenny
Bettor Beware!
Ah, the Derby prep races! It's the annoying time of year when a Derby contender gets overbet and proceeds to put in a dull performance. You wonder sometimes if such performances should have been expected.
The Derby literally has thousands of horses nominated with only a maximum of 20 making it to the starting gate on May 3rd. When the race gets oversubscribed, entries are determined on the basis of earnings not races won. So, a contender may race in a $250,000 purse race, finish 3rd and earn more money than a horse running for a $25,000 purse and finishing 2nd. The bettor is left to decide if the Derby contender is going to be sent full-throttle or if it's a highly paid public workout. I treat those contenders as the latter for this reason: I would rather bet a middle priced longshot who is trying to get enough earnings to qualify than bet an "odds-on" favorite who will disappoint. In other words, hardly a man is still alive that paid the mortgage at 4/5.
Two races yesterday I believe prove the point. At Tampa Bay Downs, the Sam F. Davis Stakes was run at a mile and a sixteenth. This dirt race had a guaranteed purse of $200,000. Derby hopeful
Z Humor,
ridden by Garrett Gomez, was sent off as the 6/5 choice. The fractions were honest enough and
Z Humor stalked the pacesetter, 24-1 longshot
Honey Honey Honey, until the far turn when
Z Humor took command and seemed to be on his way to an easy score. An easy score had the finish line been at the sixteenth pole.
Z Humor ran out of gas and finished 5th beaten more than 5 lengths. The 5th place finish did get him $5,250 anyway. Since he has fairly high earnings, he is still a contender for the Derby; however, it appears this horse may be "distance challenged". Another Derby hopeful,
Smooth Air, ridden by Manoel Cruz, sat 5th most of the way on the rail and when the time came for real running, he did make a mild gain to get third but was outkicked by both
Fierce Wind and
Big Truck. At least
Smooth Air was sent off at 4-1 which made him playable.
Meanwhile at Gulfstream Park, The Hallandale Stakes was run on the turf at a mile and a sixteenth. Here the purse was $100,000 and Derby hopeful
Cowboy Cal, John Velasquez up, was sent off as the prohibitive 1/2 favorite. Here, the fractions were very demanding (22-4/5ths, 46 flat) with
Cowboy Cal out in front cutting those fractions. He was caught late by the other Derby hopeful
Why Tonto ridden by Edgar Prado at almost 6-1. If you were a fan of the series "The Lone Ranger", you likely had the Cowboy/Tonto exacta. My question is: If you're prepping for the premiere dirt race in the world, why are you prepping on grass? In any event, I won't discount
Cowboy Cal given his strong run up front. I am concerned that he may not be ratable--like Hard Spun last year.
Why Tonto was impressive in that he stalked the fast pace and was pulling away at the end to score by a length and a half.
So, when handicapping the prep races, take a look at a horses earnings going into the race and make a judgment call as to whether the horse is running or merely exercising.
May the horse be with you,
Racetrack Lenny
Off To The Races
Congratulations to the New York Giants for their thrilling win in the Super Bowl. Their win ushered in the season I live for- the Triple Crown Races!
As in 2007, there appears to be a talented bunch of 3 year olds going into the prep race season.
Pyro was a most impressive winner of the Risen Star Stakes, a Grade 3 race run at a mile and an sixteenth at the Fair Grounds in Louisiana. Sent off as the 4/5 favorite,
Pyro under jockey Shaun Bridgmohan, looked hopelessly beaten at the three-quarter pole given the pedestrian pace of a 24-2/5ths for the opening quarter and 1:14-3/5ths for three quarters. Despite that,
Pyro closed like a roaring freight train to win going away. He looked like he could have gone around one more time. It was impressive and it stamps
Pyro as a major player.
Second choice,
Z Fortune, (Garrett Gomez up), ran a good race by stalking the pace and taking command at the head of the stretch. Don't discount him. He lost because
Pyro was clearly better and because I don't think Garrett Gomez ever saw
Pyro coming.
Visionaire, the third place finisher, stalked the pace all the way but ran an even race and couldn't sustain a bid in the stretch despite the slow fractions.
Another Derby hopeful,
Blackberry Road, under jockey Calvin Borel, was closing from far back; however, the rail never opened up for Calvin Bo-rail and
Blackberry Road had to settle for a 5th place finish.
So, those 4 are truly in the mix and there are a lot of races to go. A new wrinkle to this year's handicapping mix is the surface horses will run on. With new "cushioned tracks" being used at several major racetracks around the country, many Derby hopefuls will train and/or race on those surfaces and the Derby may be their first time on dirt. Bettor beware! I'm always wary of betting a horse to do something he's never done before. We'll keep an eye out for you.
All for now, may the horse be with you!
Racetrack Lenny
