Easter Weekend Longshot Parade
The Kentucky Derby will be one of the better betting races in recent memory. No one is dominating thus far and everyone will want a shot at the roses. Might we have another year where the favorite is 6/1? We might!
Proud Accolade ran Saturday (3/26) in the Rushaway Stakes, an ungraded 1-1/16th mile event at Turfway Park. Better to run in a glorified allowance race than try real competition in the Grade 2 Lane's End Stakes. Sent off as the prohibitive public choice at 2/5, with Jerry Bailey aboard, Proud Accolade faced a muddy track. Longshot Daddy Joe (15-1) set the pace and just got nipped at the wire by late running Cat Shaker who lit up the board with a $79.80 win mutuel. Nice exacta at $887. The fractions were smoking for a muddy track (22.4, 46.2, 1.11.1); yet, Daddy Joe nearly wired the field. Proud Accolade was a menacing 4th at the 3/4 pole and loomed boldly at the far turn before he gave way and finished a well beaten 6th--beaten by better than 12 lenghts. To those who backed Proud Accolade with reckless abandon at 2/5, remember: "hardly a man is still alive who made the mortgage at 2/5". One never knows if Derby bound horses are out for real or out for a real workout. I think we are discovering that Proud Accolade has problems getting beyond a mile. He also may not have cared for the off-track. One more chance; but, his chances are fading.
The Lane's End, run on the same card at 1-1/8th miles, gave us a look at Mr. Sword, Magna Graduate, Andromeda's Hero, Texcess and Spanish Chestnut. Spanish Chestnut was sent off as the 2-1 favorite and, just as he did last time out, he led the field through some decent fractions before giving way at the top of the stretch. He finished 6th beaten a dozen lengths. It's becoming pretty obvious that this horse is a sprinter. Mr. Sword was 6th most of the way, made a sweeping move on the far turn, took the lead at the 3/4 pole, led by 2 lenghts in the stretch and tired late. Maybe the muddy track took a bit out of him. The others finished out of the money with Texcess finishing last beaten over 30 lenghts. Instead, previously unmentioned Flower Alley, off at 10-1, got into the Derby picture with a nice come from behind win.
Other races- Malibu Moonshine won the Private Terms Stakes at Laurel Park by a neck. High Standards won the San Pedro Stakes at Santa Anita by a little more than a length.
Good news- Afleet Alex was not injured in his loss last week. He came out of the race with a respiratory tract infection and is on antibiotics. He is expected to be back in some light training by the middle to end of this coming week. So, ignore his last race. With the last race thrown out, Afleet Alex has been in the money in every one of his starts.
Happy Easter to all,
Racetrack Lenny
Wha' Happened?
that's the question on my mind after following this weekend's 4 stakes races.
In New York, there was the Gotham Stakes, a Grade 3 race run at Aqueduct over a fast track. A very strange race is the best way to put it. First, Jockey Alan Garcia lost his irons and had his saddle slip as soon as they left the gate. You would think that spelled the end of Pavo's chances. Wrong. Garcia put on quite a show managing to stay on his horse and nearly winning the whole thing. He finished 2nd at 17/1. However, the stewards took him down and placed him 4th for Garcia accidentally hitting Naughty New Yorker who was closing at that point. I watched the replay and the stewards got it wrong. Garcia's whip did hit Naughty New Yorker; but, the contact was incidental and accidental. I don't think Naughty New Yorker would have done any better than he did. As it was, he finished 4th and got moved up to 3rd. Look for Pavo to be in the Wood Memorial--he belongs.
The Gotham saw the 2 longest shots on the board set suicidal fractions of 22-1/5 and 44-2/5 with 6/5 favorite Galloping Grocer sitting the rail trip 3rd. The Grocer got the lead at the head of the stretch but got run down by both Survivalist (the race winner at 3/1) and Pavo. Because of the steward's actions, the Grocer got moved up to 2nd. Galloping Grocer may be a miler--despite sitting 3rd, he was tiring at the end. Survivalist closed from far back to win; but, there was a pace meltdown and he was the lucky horse.
At Oaklawn Park, the Grade 3 Rebel Stakes was run. This was the race Smarty Jones used last year to begin his march to the Derby. Smarty's connections are trying to do the same with Rockport Harbor and they nearly pulled it off at 8/5. Despite somewhat sluggish fractions and being loose on the lead (Rockport had a 3-1/2 length lead at the half), he got run down by Greater Good (John McKee up) who won by a half length at 9/2. Look for Greater Good to go on to greater things. Rockport may have needed this race--remember, he's been troubled by a sore hoof for weeks. However, I think he's a miler and may be distance challenged at the classic distances. The huge surprise in the Rebel was the poor performance by Afleet Alex. Sent off the 3/5 favorite, he was 2nd at the 3/4 pole and was making his patented late run but he literally stopped at the head of the stretch. That kind of stoppage suggests something went wrong; I just hope it isn't serious because Afleet Alex is one of my favs for the Derby.
The Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita was probably the best race of the weekend. A very competitive race considering the favorite (Roman Ruler) went off the tepid 3/1 choice. The Ruler showed nothing. He was actually being eased in the stretch. No Derby for Roman Ruler. Consolidator, the 7/1 race winner, showed he belonged in the Derby hunt with a going-away 6 length win through some swift fractions. Put him in your Derby picture. Wilko went off at 4/1 and ran an even 4th all the way around. He may be just a cut below these.
The Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby had to be the weakest field ever assembled. Sun King, a legitimate Derby contender, literally had a public workout. Sent of at 1/20--that's right, folks- a nickle for every dollar. He toyed with the field to win by 3 widening lengths paying $2.10 across the board. The track got dealt its biggest show pool deficit in its history. I'm surprised they allowed show betting. The value in this race turned out to be the exacta and trifecta pool. With a 27/1 shot finishing 2nd and a 62/1 shot finishing 3rd, the trifecta paid $158. Not bad with a 1/20 shot on top. I would have liked to have seen Sun King in a more competitive race; but, the final time was not too bad and maybe this strategy will work.
If Alan Garcia is reading my blog- You have earned my great respect with the heady ride on Pavo despite all that went wrong! Congrats!
Bet with your head, not over it!
Racetrack Lenny
A Good Betting Derby Coming Up
And it can't come soon enough; but, we have to wait.
Declan's Moon did not come out of his last race in good shape. The heat that was detected in his knee turns out to be a bone chip. With rest, it may take care of itself. If it doesn't resolve itself, it would require surgery. In either case, he will need at least 60 days rest and that knocks him out of the 1st Saturday in May. Those that bet him with gusto in the Futures Pools are crying in their beers.
Some intersting races this past weekend with equally interesting results. The big races were the Louisiana Derby at the Fairgrounds and the Santa Anita Oaks at Santa Anita. First, the Cajun Country roundup:
High Limit made his 1st start of the year and made a smashing debut for trainer Bobby Frankel. High Limit wired the field to win by 4 widening lengths in near track record time. Looks like High Limit may be the real deal. Storm Surge, another Derby hopeful, could get no closer than 3rd and was nearly 8 lenghts behind High Limit with no apparent excuse. The 2 closers in the race, Sort It Out and Scipion both turned in clunkers. Scipion finished 6th beaten 9 lenghts and Sort It Out was 8th beaten nearly a dozen lengths. Both ran well their prior start. If you like consistency in performance; then, these 2 are not for you. They need a pace meltdown to get the money and that just didn't happen Saturday.
The Santa Anita Oaks went to 1/5 favorite Sweet Catomine. A very nice win and the papers are all gushing about how she will cream the boys when the time comes. Ok, hold on. Take a look at that race a bit more closely and you will see her competition was not exactly world caliber. The fractions were so/so. Yes, she was impressive closing strongly into a lifeless pace; but, I'll wait until she runs against the boys in the Santa Anita Derby. If she finishes in the top 4; then, she belongs in the big race.
The Rebel Stakes is coming up at Oaklawn and it should be a very interesting race if Rockport Harbor starts against Afleet Alex. Rockport has been nursing a very sore hoof and is said to be about 75%. That could be hype or "downing expectations". We'll see if he can carry his speed. Afleet Alex will get his chance to prove he can close like he did last year. Thankfully, John Velasquez will ride.
My early Derby horse, Sun King, will run in the Tampa Bay Derby. That's a puzzling choice as I think Sun King needs a little better competition to be tightened up properly for Derby Day. However, Nick Zito seems to be doing everything right with this horse; so, I will keep the faith.
If you are into the Futures Pools, the current pool has the Field as the favorite at 6/1. That'a a ton better than 2/1 just 2 weeks ago. At 6/1, I'll take a $20 stab at the field. Afleet Alex is the 2nd choice at 8/1; not very appetizing considering he closes from far back and would need a good trip to get the roses. The Derby is the ultimate trip race. Sun King is 10/1 in the futures and will get another $10 on him in addition to the other $10 I put on him at 13/1. Remember, in the futures pools, you get the odds that were in place for that pool regardless of what happens thereafter. However, your horse must start in the Derby and needs to win the Derby. That's a taller order than you would think. That's why when betting these pools, you need to demand value for your dollar.
All for now. Thanks to all who've responded to the call for jockey Gary Boulanger and his financial need during his recovery from very serious injuries.
Bet with your head, not over it!
Racetrack Lenny
A Racing Industry Disgrace
Sorry, folks. I'm departing from the run up to the Derby to write about one of the more unknown facts of horse racing and how it is totally unaddressed. The issue- lack of health insurance for the jockeys who give us the product we so enjoy.
To the casual observer who will hear of the Jerry Baileys or the Pat Days of the world, the impression is that all jockeys are financially well off and can afford any medical expenses that come their way. Well, think again. The vast majority of jockeys toiling at racetracks across the U.S. are paid a pittance for their services and many hold second jobs just to be able to put food on the table for their families. Jockeys are considered "independent contractors" rather than racetrack employees. In an independent contractor scenario, health insurance is not provided. And, the independent contractor is not eligible for Workers' Compensation insurance because they are not employees. It's the ultimate Catch-22.
Gulfstream Park regular rider, Gary Boulanger, was severely injured last Sunday, 3/6 when his mount, In Hand, took a bad step in the final turn of a turf race and went down. Boulanger was thrown from his mount and trampled by horses following behind. Boulanger suffered a ruptured spleen and a blood clot on his brain, the effects of which remain unknown. Boulanger was upgraded yesterday from critical condition to serious condition at Memorial Regional Hospital in Hollywood, FL. However, he faces the reconstruction of part of his skull that had to be removed to relieve pressure on the brain and deal with the blood clot. He faces months of surgeries and lots of physical therapy just to be able to carry out the simple functions of everyday life, let alone get back in the saddle which, sadly, will not happen.
Gary Boulanger has NO health coverage. His expenses are literally being taken care of out of family savings, help from friends, and the establishment of a fund in his name by fellow rider Rosemary Homeister. How sad and disgraceful is that? The owners of tracks around the country get wealthy while the very people who allow their "show" to go on rely on luck to stay healthy.
Please contribute to the Gary Boulanger Fund if you are able. Any checks should be made payable to "Gary Boulanger Fund, Inc." and sent to Ms. Rosemary Homeister, P.O. Box 327595, Pembroke Pines, FL 33332.
You should also write to you local legislators and congressional representatives demanding that the long ignored jockeys be given, at the very least, basic catastrophic health care cover.
Racetrack Lenny
March Madness
No, not that March Madness, the horse kind March Madness. The major stake races leading up to the first Saturday in May have begun.
Lost In The Fog, the new sensation that hadn't been made triple crown eligible, won the Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park yesterday. Sent off as the 1/2 favorite, Lost In The Fog tracked the leaders and took over at the head of the stretch to win by 4-3/4 widening lengths. The race was a 7 furlong event; so, at least we know we have a good sprinter. Lost In The Fog's connections will pay the $6,000 now needed to make Lost In The Fog triple crown eligible. Derby fever is contagious!
At Oaklawn Park, Afleet Alex ran in the Mountain Valley Stakes against much lesser competition. Sent off at 1/5 and ridden by Jeremy Rose, Afleet Alex took over with authority in the stretch and continued beyond the 6 furlongs getting 7 furlongs in 1:22. A nice race and a nice work. Jockey John Velasquez was not available for the race as he had a prior committment; however, Velasquez will ride as things get closer to the Derby.
The Fountain of Youth, a 1-1/8 mile affair at Gulfstream Park, turned out a very nice field of horses. Many established their credentials quite nicely. Nick Zito's High Fly won in impressive fashion taking over in deep stretch and looking visually impressive. His workouts hinted he was ready and he was. Local Derby hopeful, B.B. Best set a very pressured pace and took 3rd at 16-1. I don't think we've seen the last of B.B. Best. Bandini made a good run at High Fly and seemed to be gaining late; but, he was all out to do that while High Fly looked like he had something left. Bandini's race was a good one and he has established himself as a contender.
Those who backed Defer came away disappointed with a 7th place finish with no apparent excuse. Didn't see anything in the papers or news today that might give a clue as to why the lacklustre effort. Another highly touted horse, Papi Chullo, remained a maiden. Sent off at 4-1 despite being a maiden, Papi Chullo was far back early and closed a ton to get 4th. The connections of Papi Chullo will have to work at getting a little more "gate" speed for Papi. Despite this, the Derby is the one race where there can be a pace meltdown and a closer (with good traffic luck) can get all the marbles.
Finally, out on the West Coast, The Santa Catalina Stakes was run at Santa Anita. At a 1-1/16th miles, Declan's Moon was sent off as the 4/5 favorite. On paper, this was a 3 horse race- Declan's Moon, Going Wild and Spanish Chestnut. That's exactly how it happened. I like it when that happens. Spanish Chestnut set a very pressured pace and gave way late. With more patient handling, Spanish Chestnut might have lasted the whole way. Going Wild was going really well late. Declan's Moon looked totally soaked at the end. He was fractious in the paddock area and was lathered up; however, as he gains more experience, he may get over that. However, I think the early Derby favorite is beatable and we just have to figure out who will beat him.
The sad news in the Santa Catalina was that highly regarded Snack took a bad step and broke down. He was vanned off; however, I don't know what the injury was or if it was life threatening. Will be checking to see. In any event, he is definitely out of the Derby picture.
This should be a heavy workout week and we'll be following for any clues.
Remember, bet with your head, not over it!
Racetrack lenny
