"The Strangles"- An Unexpected Belmont Entry
"The Strangles" has surfaced at Belmont Park. No, not the horse-the strep related infection that affects a horses lymph nodes. The infection, which is highly contagious, swells a horse's lymph nodes thus restricting the airways. The horse seems to be fighting for breath and can be heard wheezing; hence, the name "the strangles".
One horse came up sick this week and has been sent to the University of Illinois Equine Clinic where vets will try to determine how this illness progresses and if there might be a way to create a vaccine to keep horses healthy, especially at the height of horse racing's season. Thus far, Belmont has quarantined 3 barns, the barn which housed the infected horse, and the 2 barns adjoining the affected barn. In addition, Belmont has frozen any entries from Churchill Downs and Delaware Park where "the Strangles" has been confirmed. The net effect is short fields and a lot of fear that this could be a summer of slim pickings.
Will this affect the Belmont Stakes? I think so, it already has. Tim Ritchey, trainer of Afleet Alex, had planned to ship his charge to Belmont yesterday in order to train him there and get him acclimated to Belmont's wide sweeping turns. Instead, Ritchey has decided to keep Afleet Alex in training at Pimlico, the track where Afleet Alex showed his amazing athleticism in the Preakness. While the New York Racing Association (NYRA) will try to bill the Belmont as a showdown between Giacomo and Afleet Alex, there is the possibility that neither will come to race if the illness becomes widespread. That would also apply to horses that would ship in. Would you ship in a valuable horse to have him get sick? I don't think so.
The incubation period for "the strangles" appears to be 10-14 days and the illness itself lasts about 7 days. The horse struggles to breathe, runs a fever and loses appetite. While it appears it can be treated with antibiotics, the illness is similar to a bad flu in humans. Once a horse recovers, it takes as long as 3 months before the horse is back to its old self. This was the case when "the strangles" first made its appearance during the winter at Gulfstream Park.
Right now, we'll take a wait and see approach.
Racetrack Lenny
Miracles Do Happen- Afleet Feet!
What could have ended as one of the most horrific incidents in the Triple Crown series turned into a fairy tale ending that just took one's breath away. Yesterday's victory by Afleet Alex was the greatest display of athleticism I have ever seen or probably will see. Anything negative I've ever said about Jeremy Rose is taken back and officially retracted! He showed his incredible athleticism by hanging on for dear life (and, yes, he could have been killed) and somehow getting Afleet Alex to right himself up--and go on to win by nearly 5 widening lengths.
For those that missed the race, here's what happened. Scrappy T (Ramon Dominguez up) had convincingly taken over the lead from High Limit midway on the far turn. As the field turned for home, Scrappy T had the lead and Afleet Alex was commencing a powerful rally on the outside passing horses one by one. Just when Afleet Alex was getting poised to surpass Scrappy T, Ramon Dominguez went to the whip and Scrappy T ducked away from the whip by swerving sharply to the right cutting off Afleet Alex. They clipped heels with the result being that Afleet Alex went down on his knees with his nose just barely off the track and Jeremy Rose hanging onto Afleet Alex's mane for dear life. Somehow, Afleet Alex managed not to fall and Jeremy Rose somehow managed to hang on. Once Afleet Alex was back up, Jeremy Rose went to the whip, angled Afleet Alex to the inside of Scrappy T and Afleet Alex took command and drew off for the victory. What could have been a tragedy will become the stuff of legend.
To the immense credit of both jockeys, they displayed unbelievable class about the incident. Jeremy Rose admitted he thought this was where everything would end; but, he didn't fault Ramon Dominguez. He knew Ramon would never do something like this on purpose. That's the good thing about both these jockeys having raced in the Maryland, Pennsylvania and New Jersey circuits. They know each other and have a great respect for one another. For his part, Ramon Dominguez felt awful that he imperiled another rider for a situation he had little ability to control. This was Dominguez's first time aboard Scrappy T and, for whatever reason, the horse got spooked causing him to blow the far turn--exactly as Scrappy T had done in the Withers Stakes in April. Norberto Arroyo was aboard in the Withers and the failure to negotiate the turn caused him to be dumped in favor of Dominguez. Now we know it's not the jockey, it's the horse. Dominguez apologized profusely to Jeremy Rose and showed real class.
As for Scrappy T, thoroughbred racing should have a rule similar to what harness racing has. In harness racing, if a horse breaks stride in 2 races, he has to run a qualifying race in order to demonstrate that his bad habits have been overcome. Thoroughbred racing should consider a similar rule. Things worked out great yesterday; but, what if they didn't? Scrappy T has blown turns in his career and obviously isn't over his tendency to continue to do it. He should have to demonstrate in some form of qualifying race that his bad habits have been cured.
For those that followed my win, place, show and exacta bets, congratulations. It was a nice payoff that made up for the fluky Derby.
Now, on to Belmont on June 11th. Stay tuned.
Racetrack Lenny
One Hit Wonder? Preakness is Here
If someone had told you early Derby day morning that a horse running a speed rating of 100 would win the roses, you would have cut off his mint juleps right then and there. Well, that's what happened. Giacomo ran a 100 speed rating and captured the roses. Hey, he won it fair and square. He was the best horse that day. When you see isolated replays of that race, Giacomo had the trip of a lifetime. Everytime he needed a seam to run through, it just opened up. When the front runners melted down like a nuclear reactor, Giacomo picked up the pieces.
Can the same thing happen in the Preakness? Well, anything is possible; but, I don't think it's likely. 1) Pimlico plays kinder to speed with its hard surface and very tight turns. 2) The Preakness is a 16th of a mile shorter and 3) Pimlico has a shorter stretch.
The pace is likely to be very fast once again. Going Wild, who has no chance of winning this race, will set fast fractions out of post position 14. High Limit in post 11 will be right up close to the pace and if he slugs it out with Going Wild, the same last place finish for him can result. High Fly, Greeley's Galaxy, Scrappy T and Galloping Grocer are the other speed horses.
My picks: Scrappy T, Noble Causeway, Wilko, Afleet Alex.
Scrappy T- comes into the race as a fresh face and on the improve. His last race was the Grade 3 Withers at Aqueduct where he showed a speed rating of 102 and won after stalking the pace. He showed in that race that he could rate and not need the lead. My one concern is that Scrappy T's connections have dumped Norberto Arroyo in favor of Ramon Dominguez. I think Arroyo is the better rider; but, we'll see how this works out. Scrappy T is a hard knocker and just grinds it out. His worst showing was a distant 3rd in the Wood Memorial when Bellamy Road freaked that day and won by 17 lenghts. Scrappy T is a legit contender and will at least have a say in the outcome. Expect Scrappy T to go off between 15-1 and 20-1.
Afleet Alex- He got beaten a length in the Derby when Jeremy Rose tried to come up the rail when the rail was dead all day at Churchill Downs. That was a jockey mistake. Afleet Alex was full of run but he just started to tire with about 100 yards left to go. If you go back to his Arkansas Derby speed rating of 108, you know he has the speed to close from not too far off the pace. The trick is for this novice jockey to be patient and keep the horse in the 2 or 3 path coming down the stretch. Afleet Alex just got outkicked in the Derby; but, his pattern is that he bounces back strongly after a lesser effort. Because Giacomo will be a name everyone in the crowd will know, Afleet Alex may go off at 5/2 which would be a square price on him.
Noble Causeway- Watching isolated replays of the race, Noble Causeway's journey in the Derby was the total opposite of Giacomo's trip. Noble Causeway was soundly bumped twice, was twice in close quarters forcing Gary Stevens to take up with him and when it looked like there was a hole to run through, the hole closed. The question is "Did that trip spook him or did it make him a tougher horse?" We'll see tomorrow. I am willing to toss out the Derby and go back to his earlier form. If he runs to his Florida Derby form, he will be coming hard at the end. His 14th place finish in the Derby may give you double digit odds. I think he could go off at 10-1 to 12-1.
Wilko- Someday, someday this horse has got to break through again. He was closing fast in the Derby closing from 16th to 6th after being trapped behind a wall of horses with nowhere to go. On his best, he is dangerous and he can close from way back or stalk the pace depending on what's needed. A very versatile horse that somehow finds every excuse in the book to not win. Still, he has been in the money 5 out of his 8 races and it's hard to make him a throw out. Expect 6-1 to 10-1 on him.
TRIFECTA AND SUPERFECTA: For 3rd and 4th, a good case can be made for Greeley's Galaxy who may have the lead but be fading near the end. Also, the local "horse for the course" is Malibu Moonshine. Malibu Moonshine has run 5 times over the Pimlico strip last winning the Frederico Tesio stakes in a carriage horse time earning a speed rating of 82. However, he knows the course, Steve Hamilton knows Pimlico and someone is bound to get a suck-up 4th. Malibu Moonshine would not be the worst longshot stab in the world.
MY BETS:
I'll do a $2 Exacta part wheel: Scrappy T, Noble Causeway, Afleet Alex OVER Scrappy T, Noble Causeway, Afleet Alex and Wilko. (total cost $18)
$5 WPS- Scrappy T, Afleet Alex. (total cost $30)
$1 Trifecta: Scrappy T, Afleet Alex OVER Scrappy T, Afleet Alex OVER Noble Causeway, Wilko, Greeley's Galaxy, Malibu Moonshine. (total cost $8)
$1 Superfecta: Scrappy T, Afleet Alex OVER Scrappy T, Afleet Alex OVER Noble Causeway, Wilko, Greeley's Galaxy, Malibu Moonshine OVER Noble Causeway, Wilko, Greeley's Galaxy, Malibu Moonshine. (total cost $16- I think)
May the horse be with you,
Racetrack Lenny
Preakness Watch
It still appears there will be a full field of 14 for the Preakness this coming Saturday at Pimlico. As of today, it appears the field will consist of
Giacomo, Closing Argument, Afleet Alex, Wilko, Greeley's Galaxy, High Limit, Malibu Moonshine, Scrappy T, Hal's Image, Galloping Grocer, High Fly, Noble Causeway, Sun King and Going Wild.High Limit who fared poorly in the Derby picks up Edgar Prado. Prado is the regular rider for Sun King and has deserted that one. Obviously, he's lost a bit of confidence in Sun King who appears to be regressing at the wrong time. However, High Limit's Derby was such a clunker that one has to wonder if there isn't something wrong. Greeley's Galaxy's connections were quick to give Kent Desormeaux the hook replacing him with David Flores.
I think trainer Nick Zito will at most run 2 of his horses on Saturday. Sun King, Noble Causeway and High Fly are scheduled to work early this coming week and Zito will make up his mind. I think Sun King will get rested until the late summer. High Fly seems the likely starter. Noble Causeway's Derby was so bad it is indicative of something wrong or it could be the horse just didn't care for the track and you can toss out the race.
The Preakness is well known for always having the "horse for the course". This year, that horse is Malibu Moonshine who won the Frederico Tesio in a very tepid time. Still, a win is a win and Malibu Moonshine could have a say in the outcome. The gutsy New York based Scrappy T will go in the Preakness after his victory in the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct in New York. Scrappy T showed a new dimension in the Withers, rating off the pace to come on and win by 3. A surprise is Galloping Grocer who appears to be distance challenged; however, he will ensure a lively pace.
Giacomo will not be the favorite; but, he will get some action at the windows since he is now a well known name. If he goes off double-digit odds, he may be worth a few bucks. The Preakness has been won more than a few times by a closer (remember Gate Dancer and Deputed Testamony). Even though Bellamy Road and Bandini are both injured and unable to race, there is still a lot of speed in the Preakness with Going Wild likely being the pacesetter. With that type of speed, it could be set up again for a closer. As of today, I am liking Afleet Alex's chances if he can get a clean trip.
Racetrack Lenny
D. Wayne Lukas-Give Giacomo A Break, Will Ya?
Leave it to D. Wayne Lukas who has a nose for a camera to state the obvious that Giacomo will not be a triple crown winner this year. Could he at least allow Giacomo's connections to enjoy one day in the sun dreaming their triple crown dream? D. Wayne Lukas- a keen sense of the obvious. Or, is it that obvious?
The Preakness promises to attract a big field because all of a sudden the unbeatables seem quite ordinary. Can lightning strike twice? Yes it can. If the full field materializes and there is a pace meltdown, you might very well see little Giacomo gobbling up horses in the stretch. Stranger things have happened. And what does D. Wayne Lukas have in the Preakness? Drumroll, please: A.P. Arrow, a horse that has yet to break his maiden. That's right, folks. Lukas' great hope is a maiden. 'Nuff said.
By the way, should both Bandini and Spanish Chestnut try again in the Preakness, they will be coupled in the wagering so that the fraud perpetrated by Churchill Downs on the gambling public won't be duplicated. Shame on Churchill Downs management to allow such a farce.
New York based Scrappy T, winner of the Withers at Aqueduct, is being pointed to the Preakness. He has the tactical speed to be a factor. A fresh horse for the course.
All for now,
Racetrack Lenny
There's A Reason They Call It Gambling
Credit a friend from Connecticut with this entry's title. His wife had Giacomo across the board, as did my sister. At least I got to visit the cashier's window after the race. I also collected some minor consoloation money on Afleet Alex's show pay-off.
The question on many minds: What the #$#$ happened? Let's see if we can figure it out.
Bellamy Road had been coronated before the race was run. Sent off as the 5/2 favorite, there was a lot of money on Bellamy given that there was $26 Million in the win pool. As I mentioned in previous posts, the Derby is the only race in America where the horse that gets the trip wins the race. The best horse doesn't necessarily win or even get close. The only horse who ran the race of his career was Closing Argument who was up close to the torrid pace; yet, managed to get 2nd just missing by a 1/2 length.
As expected, Spanish Chestnut, who had no chance of winning, went out and slugged it out with Going Wild for a mile. The 1st quarter in 22-1/5 immediately told me a closer was going to win. At that point, I liked where my horses were sitting: Sun King had settled into 9th, Noble Causeway was 12th, Afleet Alex was 11th and Wilko was 13th-all off the pace. But, Bellamy Road was 3rd just a length off the leaders and no matter how much a wonder horse you are, a 22-1/5 quarter will take its toll in a mile and a quarter race. At this point in the race, Giacomo had 2 horses beat- Don't Get Mad and Greater Good.
The half mile went in 45-1/5, a suicidal pace. Still Spanish Chestnut and Going Wild. Bellamy Road had taken back to 5th as jockey Javier Castellano realized they were blazing. It would turn out that the first quarter split was going to come back to haunt him. My 4 horses were still settled in the same position as at the quarter mile. I was cautiously optimistic.
3/4's of a mile in 1:09-2/5 would be a good 6 furlong time; yet, there was a distance to go. Spanish Chestnut was still hanging on; Going Wild was starting to back up and, surprisingly, it was Flower Alley who now was going to try to match strides with the Chestnut. High Fly was in gear and moved up to 3rd while Bellamy Road was still biding his time in 5th. My horses were still in the back of the pack; but, there was time to get moving. Keep in mind that at this split, Giacomo was 18th with 15 lenghts to make up.
At the top of the stretch, 71-1 Closing Argument was threatening to pull off the huge upset. But, Afleet Alex was in gear along the rail with Bellamy Road now pulling off the rail to be 4 wide and 3rd just a head off the lead. Wilko was now moving on the outside into 10th and I was starting to have some hope that I would catch an Afleet Alex/Wilko exacta. What I didn't see as a blur 10 wide on the outside was Giacomo surging from 18th, circling the field and being set down for the drive.
Bellamy Road took the lead for about 3 seconds in mid-stretch when that opening 22-1/5 quarter began to take its toll. Shockingly, Closing Argument was not folding his tent and Jeremy Rose was all over Afleet Alex asking for one last burst of energy. But, it was not to be as Giacomo shocked them all to pull off the 50-1 upset. You could handicap this race all day and never come up with him as a legitimate contender. That's why they call it gambling.
As long as Churchill Downs allows 20 horses into the starting gate, you will never have an honest horserace. Form goes out the window because luck takes over. It becomes a case of the horse that has the best trip, gets the win. If you look at the replay, Giacomo had the cleanest trip of all. If you read the chart of the race, Bellamy Road and Noble Causeway were both soundly bumped a few times during the race. Bellamy Road also didn't handle the huge crowd well--he was pretty lathered up in the paddock, never a good sign. Bandini was jittery as well and he was, perhaps, the race's biggest disappointment being sent off as the 3rd choice and finishing 19th. Perhaps it serves his owner's right- They owned both Bandini and Spanish Chestnut and the knuckleheads at Churchill Downs allowed them to run uncoupled in the wagering. The Chestnut's mission was to set a suicidal pace to allow Bandini to close from off the pace. Bandini was 7th early and steadily went backwards from there. So much for strategy.
As for the Racing Form, a waste of $5. When you examined every angle of the race, you couldn't have possibly come up with the top 2. Both from a speed rating point of view and experience, they just did not figure. Go figure!
Congratulations to those who had Giacomo. With his record, you needed to get a huge price for the risk being taken and you were handsomely rewarded. To whomever had the superfecta which paid $1.7 Million, congratulations. Remember me in your will, please. How the winning person came up with that combination will be the talk of the coming year.
As they say in racing, turn the page. It's off to the Preakness. Afleet Alex's trainer has already committed to running. Giacomo will have no choice but to run to see if there is the slimmest hope of a triple crown. The Preakness, in two weeks, could attract a big field as the best of the spring went from mortal locks to mere mortals. Should be interesting.
Racetrack Lenny
Tougher Than It Looks
A week ago, you would have put all your money on Bellamy Road and your handicapping was over. But, Bellamy Road drew Post Position 16 and it makes things both interesting and hard to handicap.
Bellamy Road is certainly a deserving favorite. His breakthrough performance in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 9th was the stuff of legend. He ran a 120 speed figure, the fastest for any Derby prep race ever. However, I was there and Aqueduct was souped up more than the track at the Indy 500. Earlier races that day by maidens at 6 furlongs were being run in near record time. That doesn't take anything away from Bellamy Road because he was just dominant in that race. Going Wild tried to stay with him and was beaten 41 lengths. Post 16 may allow you to get better than even money odds and at 5-2 morning line, that would be a gift.
The question remains: Did the Wood take something out of Bellamy Road, could he bounce off that effort? I think the answer is yes; but, even if he regresses to run a speed figure of between 100-105, he still is in the picture. He's tough to throw out.
Who can beat Bellamy Road? I'll make a case for 4 horses.
1) Sun King: He certainly ran a great race at Gulfstream Park in his 3 year old debut, putting up a speed figure of 104 at one mile. He stalked the pace and drew off in the stretch. He next surfaced at Tampa Bay Downs in the Tampa Bay Derby, got sent off at 1-20 (yes, a nickle to the dollar) led all the way to win by 3 and showed a speed rating of 91 against a very, very weak field. He then ran in the Blue Grass, was 6 lenghts back throughout and finished 4th beaten 9 lenghts while posting his 2nd lowest speed rating of his career-88. In the Blue Grass, he raced wide throughout and he may not have cared for Keeneland's deeper surface. While he certainly seems to be regressing and does not instill confidence, his record is eerily similar to 1995 Derby winner, Thunder Gulch. Thunder Gulch seemed to be regressing after brilliant early races, got sent off at 25-1 in the 1995 Derby and won. Why do I like him: He has Edgar Prado, an excellent veteran jockey who has ridden in high-pressure situations. He also comes out of Post 3 which will allow him to secure a ground saving trip at the rail and be in the 1st 6 or 7 horses. Finally, we know he can get a triple digit speed rating on his best--maybe tomorrow we see his best.
2) Wilko- Has not had a triple digit speed rating; but, he's going in the right direction having last closed to get 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby-missing by 1/2 a length. That impressed me because Wilko closed into a slow pace set by Buzzard's Bay. Wilko won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile last year which automatically jinxed him for the Derby. No BCJ winner has won the Derby. This could be the race that breaks the jinx. If the Red Sox did it, so can Wilko. One drawback is Post 14; but, if jockey Corey Nakatani can get him away in good order and secure a position in mid-pack, he could be heard from at the end, especially with the expected hot pace.
3) Afleet Alex: A gem of consistency with his out of the money finish in the Rebel Stakes being a complete throwout. In that race, he finished 6th beaten 12 lenthts; but, he came out of that race the next day with a lung infection. After rest and anti-biotics, he came back strong in the Arkansas Derby winning by 8 widening lengths and posting his best ever speed rating (108). That being said, his form cycle shows that he had always run a high double digit speed figure after each triple digit effort. However, he has won even the high double digit races. Another concern of mine is the inexperienced Jeremy Rose as the jockey--but, the kid seems to really know this horse; so, I will let it go. Finally, Afleet Alex fits the profile of a Derby winner. He is a closer from off the pace; but, he never comes from out of the clouds to win it. He is no worse than mid-pack and if the pace meltdown happens, Afleet could be picking up the pieces. Jeremy Rose has to be very patient and very careful not to let Afleet Alex duck in or drift out in the stretch which Afleet Alex is fond of doing. If he does and interferes with another runner, you could see your first Derby DQ in a long time.
4) Noble Causeway: With Giant's Causeway of Ireland as his daddy, we know Noble Causeway can get the distance. The horse is bred to run all day. His last race was a nice 2nd in the Florida Derby where he got a speed rating of 100. His speed ratings in 2005 have been 77, 85, 96 and 100. Clearly, a horse moving in the right direction. He is at the peak of a form cycle and is hard to leave out as he is another closer who can pick up the pieces at the end. Veteran Gary Stevens rides which is a huge plus. He is a patient rider with a good clock in his head and will know when to make his move.
For the Superfecta, is there a bomb that can get 4th? Absolutely. Buzzard's Bay can be in that mix as can Giacomo and Sort it Out.
So, how do you bet this? Here's what I'm doing:
$1 Exacta: Sun King/Wilko/Noble Causeway/Afleet Alex OVER Sun King/Wilko/Noble Causeway/Afleet Alex/Bellamy Road. ($20- 20 combinations).
$10 Exacta: Bellamy Road OVER Afleet Alex/Wilko/Noble Causeway/Sun King ($40- 4 combinations)
$1 Trifecta: Sun King/Noble Causeway/Afleet Alex OVER Sun King/Wilko/Noble Causeway/Afleet Alex/Bellamy Road OVER Bellamy Road/Giacomo/Buzzard's Bay/Sort It Out ( $36- 36 combinations-if I did my math right)
$1 Superfecta: Sun King/Wilko OVER Sun King/Wilco OVER Bellamy Road, Afleet Alex, Noble Causeway OVER Giacomo/Sort it Out/Buzzard's Bay ($18- 18 combinations if I did my math right).
$5 WPS- Sun King/Wilko ($30)
$10 WPS- Bellamy Road/Afleet Alex ($60)
Total Bets: $194.
Good luck, bet with your head, not over it. If you're smashed, let someone sober manage your money.
May the horse be with you.
Racetrack Lenny
Consolidator- Out
Consolidator, D. Wayne Lukas' hope for the Roses, has been retired from racing after fracturing a sesamoid while training. Fortunately, the injury was not life threatening and the horse will be fine, just won't be able to race.
All this works well for Greeley's Galaxy, the Illinois Derby winner, who was on the outside looking in and now appears in--should his connections make the supplemental payment.
Buzzard's Bay, Closing Argument, Coin Silver and Sort It Out all had useful workouts today. All were sharp and they look primed for Saturday.
Let's toss out a few pretenders here while we're at it. Spanish Chestnut is a throw-out and has no chance of winning. He will be a pace factor; but, he cannot get a mile and a quarter. Save your money for a mint julep, if you must imbibe this most foul tasting drink.
Buzzard's Bay had a lucky win in the Santa Anita Derby that was totally devoid of speed. There is no way that Buzzard's Bay will get away with having the lead and setting fractions of 24, 48, etc. Without an easy pace, Buzzard's Bay will be used up by the far turn.
Flower Alley is coming along nicely, but is too lightly raced and has to improve a lot to be near the winner's circle. Yes, he did get a suck-up 2nd in the Arkansas Derby; but, he was 8 lenghts back and Afleet Alex was pulling away.
Finally, we can dispatch Coin Silver from the mix. Yes, he won the Lexington by 3-1/2 lengths; but, he beat a weak field in a slow time. He will be facing Grade 1 stakes placed horses and this will not be the field he faced in the Lexington.
More to come tomorrow.
Racetrack Lenny
There Ought To Be A Law!
Years ago, if a trainer or owner had more than one horse entered in a race, they were forced to couple them as an entry in the wagering. About 10 years ago or so, the law was changed so that if there was bonafide separate ownership interests with the same trainer, the horses would run uncoupled. The reasoning was that each owner wants to win the race and thus the betting public is not harmed.
That won't be the case on Saturday if Spanish Chestnut does indeed run for the Roses. There is some tie-in between the connections of Spanish Chestnut and Bandini. In fact, the trainer of Spanish Chestnut has publicly stated that Spanish Chestnut may serve as a rabbit for his uncoupled entrymate, Bandini. Well, at least we know the strategy before the race. If Spanish Chestnut draws an inside post, he will set the pace until he runs out of gas at the 3/4 pole. Churchill Downs officials should run them as 1 and 1A- an entry. As for Spanish Chestnut, the owners have a bad case of Derby fever. This horse cannot get the distance, he is a 6 furlong sprinter and has no chance of winning the Derby. He does not belong.
Other doings: High Fly worked 5 furlongs in 1:00:2/5; Noble Causeway went the 5 furlongs in 1:00 flat. Bellamy Road worked 5 furlongs in 1:00:2/5. Nick Zito was quite pleased with the results showing his stable of horses is razor sharp for Saturday.
Other works: Bandini worked 5 furlongs in 1:00-4/5, while stablemate Flower Alley worked the same distance in 1:00-3/5. D. Wayne Lukas' trained Going Wild went 5 furlongs in 59:1/5- a bullet work showing the horse is razor sharp. But, Going Wild was up the track in the Wood and I think he is a distance challenged horse. Jose Valdivia, Jr. has been named to ride.
As of today, no defections from the Derby field which keeps Don't Get Mad on the outside looking in. Don't Get Mad's owners have already made plans for the Preakness and are hoping for one defection from the Derby field to get Don't Get Mad in the run for the Roses. Don't get too excited as it is rare these days to have a horse come back with a super effort with only 6 days rest.
May the horse be with you,
Racetrack Lenny
A Yankee In The Winner's Circle??
Could very well be. George Steinbrenner may have spent millions on his slumping Yankees; but, his $84,000 investment in Bellamy Road looks poised to give him a big return. That is, of course, if Bellamy Road wins as is now expected.
As of today, it looks like the full field of 20 will go in the Derby. In alphabetical order they are: Afleet Alex (Jeremy Rose); Andromeda's Hero (TBD); Bandini (John Velasquez); Bellamy Road (Javier Castellano); Buzzard's Bay (Mark Guidry); Closing Argument (Cornelio Velasquez); Coin Silver (Patrick Valenzuela); Consolidator (Rafael Bejarano); Flower Alley (Jorge Chavez); Giacomo (Mike Smith); Going Wild (TBD); Greater Good (John McKee); Greeley's Galaxy (Kent Desormeaux); High Fly (Jerry Bailey); High Limit (Ramon Dominguez); Noble Causeway (Gary Stevens); Sort It Out (Brice Blanc); Spanish Chestnut (Joe Bravo); Sun King (Edgar Prado) and Wilko (Corey Nakatani). If there are some defections, look for Don't Get Mad to try to get in off his impressive Derby Trial.
Bellamy Road is expected to be the post time favorite off his sensational run in the Wood Memorial where he tied the track record for the 1-1/8 mile distance and broke the Wood Memorial record. The track record is now shared with Riva Ridge who set the mark at Aqueduct in 1973. However, keep a few things in mind. Bellamy Road is lightly raced. He broke his maiden at 2 at first asking and then won another race before finishing 7th in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile at Keeneland. He emerged at Gulfstream Park on March 12th in an allowance race where he won for fun by 15 lengths with a speed rating of 96. He shows up in early April at the Wood Memorial and is sent off as the 2nd choice and ran the race of his young career winning by 17 widening lenghts and setting a speed rating of 120. That is sensational. But, the Wood was his 5th lifetime start and the improvement was so dramatic that one wonders if it took a little bit out of him. In my mind, he is the ultimate candidate to bounce off his Wood performance. However, even if he comes down to earth to a 100 or so speed rating, that is what some of the others in the race have been doing; so, an off day could still keep Bellamy Road very much in the picture. That's a scenario I hate--you want to beat the horse because he will offer no value at the expected low odds; yet, you have to use him because he is a legitimate contender.
Post position will play a huge factor in Bellamy Road's odds. If he gets post 1 through 10, you have the real possibility of an even money favorite or better. Post 11 through 20 may put him at 5/2 or higher making him worth a wager. We'll know on Thursday of this week.
Another reminder: The best horse does not always win the roses. The Derby is the world's ultimate trip race. A good trip, being in the right place at the right time can put you in the winner's circle.
I'll comment on the others during the week; but, you get the picture: I think Bellamy Road is beatable this coming Saturday.
Keep your mortgage money safe!
Racetrack Lenny
