Derby Post Position Update
Well, post positions are set and we're ready to go. A very good betting race. Speed horses generally drew poorly. Read The Footnotes-Post 14, Smarty Jones- Post 15, Pollard's Vision- Post 17 and Quinton's Gold Rush- Post 20. The lone speed that drew very well was Lion Heart-Post 3.
Post positions definitely will play a big part in this race. Lion Heart with a favorable post should get right out and make a bee line to the rail. Look for the outside speed horses to get out fast trying to get to mid-pack and perhaps forced to be 5 wide or more at the first turn. If none of the outside speed is able to get to Lion Heart quickly and the first quarter goes in anything slower than 23-4/5, Lion Heart then has a chance. I just doubt he can get the distance.
Contenders: Smarty Jones, despite Post 15, has proven his talent coming into the Derby undefeated. His workout earlier this week (5 furlongs in 58) was sensational. He seems primed for a top effort. Tapit's slow speed figure in the Wood Memorial should be discounted. It was a bizarre race and he came from way out of it to win it. This one-run closer gets Post 18 which will guarantee that he will have no problem securing a last or next to last position early. Should there be a fast pace, he could be this year's Gato Del Sol. Imperialism is the most experienced horse in the race- 15 starts. He can stalk the pace from mid-pack or close from far back. His latest workouts have been good and he could be in the hunt late. The Cliff's Edge was impressive beating Lion Heart and he's another versatile sort that wins these type of races. Borrego was the only horse doing some serious running at Smarty Jones in the Arkansas Derby and a similar effort puts him right there. Finally- our sentimental choice, Minister Eric, drew very well. He's a mid-pack runner who launches one run and he should be able to get to mid-pack fairly easily. Will he have the stamina to get the distance-iffy.
Pretenders: Action This Day continues to be highly touted because of his Breeders Cup Juvenile win. It would be a miracle if he pulls off the upset given his sorry record this year. The Breeder's Cup curse continues. Friends Lake is here on the strength of his Florida Derby win. He upset that field because of a pace meltdown and that may be unlikely in the Derby. Master David is always knocking around, but, he had the Wood seemingly won when he ran out of gas and was passed easily by Tapit. Read The Footnotes knows one thing-speed. He got fried in the Florida Derby battling with Second of June. I don't think he's yet recovered from that grueling race. Castledale is an Irish bred who can definitely get the distance and he won the Santa Anita Derby. But, that race was deceiving. It was run in a slow time and Castledale was able to last. He will not get soft fractions in the Derby. Castledale has the look of a good Belmont horse. Quinton's Gold Rush ran extremely well in his last race; but, he draws Post 20 and speed is his game. Too much to overcome.
All others merit no mention.
Bets: $10 WPS- Smarty Jones, Tapit, Imperialism
$2 WPS- Minister Eric
$2 Exacta Box: Smarty Jones, Tapit, Imperialism
$1 Exacta: The Cliff's Edge, Tapit, Smarty Jones over The Cliff's Edge, Tapit, Smarty Jones, Borrego, Minister Eric
$1 Triple: Smarty Jones, Tapit, Imperialism over Tapit, Imperialism, Borrego over Smarty Jones, Borrego, Minister Eric, The Cliff's Edge
$1 Superfecta: Smarty Jones, Tapit over Smarty Jones, Tapit over The Cliff's Edge, Borrego over The Cliff's Edge, Borrego, Minister EricGood luck everyone, may the Horse be with you.
Minister Eric Bulletin
This just in from Racetrack Lenny:Barring the unforeseen, Minister Eric's connections have announced that he will go in the May 1 Derby. Jockey Victor Espinoza has unceremoniously been given the heave ho and his replacement is Mr. Derby Pat Day. Now, that's good news and bad news. Good news in that Minister Eric has the services of a known jockey who knows Churchill Downs like the back of his hand. Bad news in that Minister Eric's odds will drop as a result. Pat Day could ride a mule in the Derby and be sent off as the favorite.
All that being said, Minister Eric faces a tall order on the 1st of May. He is the most lightly prepared pony coming in having run a 7 furlong turf race, a claiming race (still can't get over that) and a $54,000 allowance race. All others have run in at least one graded stake race in 2004. Could they be thinking the "fresh horse" angle? We'll see.
Lexington and Federico Tesio
2 more stakes races down: The Lexington at Keeneland and the Federico Tesio at Pimlico.
Lexington: Quinton's Gold Rush (Jerry Bailey up) ran a super race. Breaking from post 10, he was hustled to the front and sat behind pacesetter Dashboard Drummer. At the 3/4 mile mark, Quinton's Gold Rush took over and won by 2-3/4 widening lengths. He ran the mile and one-sixteenth in a very creditable 1:43-4/5. Question is was this race spaced to close to the Derby? We'll see; but, Quinton's Gold Rush's running style suits the Derby.
Other Derby hopefuls-Song of the Sword was closing and got 3rd but was never a threat. The much heralded Pomeroy ran evenly around the track sitting 3rd most of the way before being overtaken by Song of the Sword.
Federico Tesio: Will the Derby winner come out of this race? In a word-No. Derby hopeful Paddington, a one-run closer, sat behind a lifeless pace (1st quarter in 24) and actually lost ground in the stretch. Not a good sign. Water Cannon won the mile and one-eighth contest in a very pedestrian 1:50-2/5. Minister Eric is due to workout sometime this week.
Minister Eric Watch
Surprise, surprise. No workouts for Minister Eric in the past 2 weeks made me wonder what was up. He turns up today in the 7th Race at Keeneland. A $54,000 Allowance at a 1-1/16th miles on the dirt. In a field of 7--all of the others being nothing better than claimers, Minister Eric was sent off at 1/5 and won like a 1/5 shot should. He won by 4-1/4 widening lengths. Good news is that he was able to change leads as he began to drift out in the stretch.
Pretty unorthodox way to bring a contender up to the Derby; but, we'll see. Minister Eric is on the "bubble" of horses who may be earnings challenged to get into the Derby. Hey, at least he won a race! By the way, the exacta returned a whopping $5.60!
Derby Update
Huge weekend of prep races for the Run for the Roses: The Wood Memorial, The Blue Grass Stakes are covered here: Arkansas Derby in next article for space's sake.
Wood: Over 17,000 fans at Aqueduct couldn't decide on a favorite; so, at the last tick of the odds, Value Plus was sent off as the ever so tepid 5/2 choice. Tapit, off at 5/1, was dead last about 20 lengths back in the early going and got rolling after a half-mile to reach contention at the head of the stretch. He prevailed by a 1/2 length in a very gutsy win over Master David who ran a good race; he just got outfinished. Eddington completed the trifecta just a nose back in third. Other Derby hopefuls- Swingforthefences loomed a huge threat at the head of the stretch, even getting the lead by a head ever so briefly, but then faded to 4th. He is very doubtful for the Derby. Value Plus was a huge disappointment having the lead at the 1/2 mile mark and checking in a very tiring 6th; seems like no Derby for him. Consecrate threw in a real clunker and was never a factor finishing 9th beaten better than 15 lengths. Closer Little Mathh Man never closed and NY Bred Sinister G got fried by the torrid pace beating just one horse.
Blue Grass: Folks bet their lungs on Lion Heart sending him off at 4/5. They got beat soundly by The Cliff's Edge who closed in workmanlike fashion to prevail at almost 6/1. Limehouse finished a creditable 3rd running evenly around the track. Action This Day was never a factor and the bettors knew it sending him off at 10/1. No Derby for him. He continues the Breeders Cup jinx. No winner of the Breeders Cup has come back to win the Derby. The streak endures. Bob Baffert's Derby hope, Preachinatthebar, put in a dreadful performance. He was up early with Lion Heart and he stopped like he was shot finishing a very dull 7th beaten better than 15 lengths.
Arkansas Derby: Smarty Jones is the real deal. Despite post #11, a muddy track and getting off a step slowly, Stewart Elliott gunned him to the lead 5 wide into the 1st turn and battled with Purge up to the far turn when Elliott asked Smarty to run and he accelerated to lead by 4 at the top of the stretch. Only stretch-runner Borrego was doing any serious running at the end to get 2nd but just could not get to the winner. Pro Prado rallied along the rail to get 3rd. It was open lengths to the rest of the field.
So, look for Smarty Jones to perhaps be the favorite on May 1st with The Cliff's Edge, Lion Heart, Tapit, Master David and Eddington taking some money as well.
As for Minister Eric, he may have a big problem getting into the Derby based on earnings. Only the top 20 stakes earners get into the Derby. Minister Eric's connections now seem likely to pay the price for running their horse in a claiming race and an allowance turf race. Maybe someday someone will explain that boneheaded strategy to me.
May the horse be with you!
Derby Update - Santa Anita
Less than a month to go and the Derby picture is as muddled as ever. However, a few are standing out and they are Smarty Jones, Pollard's Vision and Imperialism. Smarty Jones won the Rebel Stakes 2 weeks ago and will go in the Arkansas Derby. He worked 5 furlongs on 4/3 in an eye-popping 58-3/5. Big question- can he hold his speed a mile and a quarter?
Pollard's Vision won the Illinois Derby by nearly 3 widening lengths and looked good doing so. Skipaslew who has been prominently mentioned for the first Saturday in May checked in 5th beaten 15 lengths, a real clunker.
The Santa Anita Derby had a stellar field and a 30-1 shipper from Ireland pulled off the upset slipping up the rail to prevail by a head. 2nd place finisher, Rock Hard Ten was DQ'd from 2nd to 3rd for interfering with Imperialism who was closing like a freight train. Imperialism was moved up to 2nd as a result. Imperialism is another one-run closer that needs a quick pace up front and such horses rarely win the Derby; but, this one is similar to Little Mathh Man. Both have powerful closing kicks. Wimbledon, St. Averil and Lucky Pulpit finished 6th, 7th and 8th, all beaten 10 lengths or more.
Minister Eric, our sentimental choice, has been rested this week. He may turn up in the Wood Memorial.
