Prayers Are With Barbaro
Horse racing is a sport with dizzying heights and bottomless lows. Two weeks after Barbaro's authoritative truimph in the Kentucky Derby giving his owners/trainer the high of their lifetime, Barbaro suffered which might be a life threatening injury in front of millions watching worldwide. Barbaro appeared to be full of energy as he even broke through the starting gate creating a false start. He was collared about 100 feet from the gate and escorted back to the gate to be re-loaded so the race could begin. What transpired once the gates open is now widely known. Not even 100 yards into the race, something went drastically wrong and jockey Edgar Prado pulled up the reins trying to restrain Barbaro who was going sideways. Barbaro's right hing leg was flopping aimlessly as the hurt animal struggled to stay upright. Prado did a masterful job of preventing further injury. Some observations:
1. Many say the injury occurred when Barbaro broke through the gate. From any replay I saw, that seems unlikely since the horse, upon being led back to the starting gate, seemed to be putting pressure on his right hind leg and was in no apparent distress. That being said, I was amazed that the stewards just decided to load him in and go. In New York and New Jersey, a false start delays post time by 10 minutes and all horses are unloaded from the gate. The reason for that is two-fold. 1) It gives all other horses 10 minutes to warm up again so they are ready for a new start and 2) It allows the track veterinarians to do more than a cursory examination to see if there was any injury. These measures are in place to protect both horses and the betting public. Why Pimlico did not do this is a mystery to me.
2. Breaking through the gate is not as uncommon as one would think. The gates are held together with strong magnets and when the signal is given, the gate is de-magnetized thus opening the doors. Sometimes, the magnets aren't as strong as they should be and a horse can break through. All they know is that when the gate opens, they go. Barbaro tried to do that; but, credit jockey Edgar Prado to know that no one else was going and he quickly got Barbaro under control. The gate should be gone over with a fine tooth comb to make sure it is functioning properly.
3. Many say Barbaro was uncharacteristically "hyped up" for the race. I think that had as much to do with the zoo at Pimlico yesterday than with any foreboding of an injury.
4. I commented to a friend that I was amazed that the maintenance crews did not harrow the stretch after the tractor brought the starting gate to the head of the strecth. I expected to see the tractors with their harrows making the surface even--or the crew with rakes covering up the tire track marks left by both the tractor and the starting gate wheels. If you look at the slow motion replay, it seems Barbaro suffered his injury when he caught the wheel indentation in the track. Maybe I'm making more of this than I should; but, I can't imagine I was the only one who saw this.
5. The entire incident lends itself to an independent inquiry as to what went wrong. This was a horrific development that cannot be chalked up to "well, that's horse racing". We should be sure everything that could have been done to make this a safe race was done. If things could have been done better, then let's adopt those improvements so we minimize the risk of this ever happening again.
Our thoughts and prayers are with Barbaro, Michael Matz and the owners of Barbaro.
A sad day for racing and a very somber Preakness.
Racetrack Lenny
Preakness
Who would have thought only 3 Derby contenders would show up for the Preakness? No matter, we still have to try to pick a winner in what is a combination stakes and allowance race. Some of the new faces just don't belong in this race; but, track management must be thrilled to have a field of 9 which will allow for all the exotic wagers. Here's my thoughts on the field by post position:
1.
Like Now- Pimlico plays well to front runners with its hard surface, tight turns and short stretch. Speed at the rail is dangerous at Pimlico. Like Now needs the lead to do his best and the question is whether he can get the 1-3/16th mile distance. The owner/trainer must also like their chances since they have replaced regular rider, 18 year old Fernando Jara, with journeyman Garrett Gomez, who has been hot of late. This is a live longshot who might wire the field or be tiring and still get in the money. At morning line odds of 12-1, a win is not out of the question. He could be this year's Scrappy T.
2.
Platinum Couple- Top Beyer speed figure is an 82, this horse will likely be last.
3.
Hemingway's Key- George Steinbrenner wants the spotlight and this is his best chance to get it. Unfortunately, his horse's chances of being in the spotlight are slim. He would need a complete pace meltdown in order to plod home first. Another candidate to be last.
4.
Greeley's Legacy- Ran a strong Gotham at Aqueduct in March when he closed to get 4th, beaten a length and a quarter over a dead rail. He posted a 103 Beyer that day but has significantly regressed in his 2 subsequent races. The field's legitimate closer on his best day. Not impossible.
5.
Brother Derek- Likely to be the 2nd choice in the wagering behind Barbaro. Cursed with a far outside post in the Derby, this speedster still accounted well for himself finishing a dead-heated 4th with Jazil. This race will be much more to his liking with the much shorter field and a hard track similar to what he's raced on out West. Certainly one of the top horses.
6.
Barbaro- Ran the race of his life in the Derby posting a crushing 111 Beyer speed rating and beating the field by 6 widening lengths under a brisk hand ride. A very deserving Preakness favorite. For the bettor, getting 2/5 or 3/5 isn't an enticing proposition. My uncle Al used to say "Hardly a man is still alive that paid the mortgage at 3/5". If you're looking for money, go to the bank. Getting $3 for betting $5? Not for me. Also keep in mind that Barbaro's races have always been well spaced apart to allow for at least 30 days rest between starts. The Preakness comes just 2 weeks after the Derby. Great horse; but, vulnerable. The pace scenario will be different and I don't think he will win.
7.
Sweetnorthernsaint- Had what must have been one of the top 5 worst trips in Derby history. Horse is capable of much better, the question is "will the memory of the demolition derby still be in his head?" If so, he may not fire his best. If not, he will rebound nicely and will be right there. Will likely be the 3rd choice in the wagering and anything above 4-1 would be good value.
8.
Bernardini- The Preakness will represent this horse's 4th career start. Beyer speed figures are going the right way and his Withers Stakes victory was legit-albeit in a field of 4 horses. He seems to me to be too lightly raced to win this; but, a top 4 finish at decent odds is not out of the realm of possibility.
9.
Diabolical- A nice allowance horse who needs the lead to win. Problem is that outside post will have him wide outside both Like Now and Bernardini. Wide speed trips seldom get the job done and he might be a pace factor that will be backing up in the stretch.
The Bets:The only value play in this race is the exacta. You will be able to not bet your head off and still have a chance of capturing a nice price. If you believe the 3 Derby contenders will finish 1,2,3; then, the triple and superfecta will pay $200 or less making boxing 4 horses in those bets an unappetizing gamble. So, here is my value play:
$2 Exacta Wheel: #1 Like Now over ALL. ($16)$2 Exacta Back Wheel: ALL over #1 Like Now ($16)Here's hoping Like Now finishes 1st or 2nd.
May the horse be with you,
Racetrack Lenny
Maybe 10 Will Go
Just 3 days to go before the Preakness is run. Hopefully handicapping redemption will come after my Derby debacle.
Up until today it looked like a field of 6 starters; but, a few horses are coming out of the woodwork and we may have 9 or 10 entries by the time the field is drawn. Out of the Derby, only Barbaro, Brother Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint will run in the Preakness. All other entries will be new to the Triple Crown trail. It will make for an interesting mix.
I haven't quite given up on Sweetnorthernsaint since he seems to be working well and came out of the Derby in reasonably good order. When you view the Derby replay, you will see that Sweetnorthernsaint got the worst trip of all the starters. He was trapped on a dead rail. That shouldn't happen on Saturday.
Of the newcomers, Like Now is someone with a good shot at springing an upset. He has speed and Pimlico is very friendly to front-runners. Diabolical also fits that same pattern. I'm surprised that neither Jazil nor Steppenwolfer are not planning to run in the Preakness. There is tons of speed in the race and no legitimate closer. Interesting.
Stay tuned,
Racetrack Lenny
They Are Animals After All- Derby Post-Mortem
OUCH! On any given Saturday...! Well, back to work tomorrow since all I have are a batch of losing tickets and once again my pick got victimized by a horrible trip. It is what it is. Like humans, some animals take to being surrounded by 157,000 drunken fans and tons of noise; others get freaked out by it and it showed in yesterday's 132nd running of the Derby.
Congratulations to
Barbaro who settled in very nicely on the outside in the 2nd tier of horses, avoided traffic and clearly was much the best winning with authority by nearly 7 lengths. I'm very happy for jockey, Edgar Prado, who got his first Derby. He has labored for many years and has shown what a good rider he is, yesterday's win for him was much deserved and long overdue.
I thought the long rest between the Florida Derby and the Ky. Derby would be Barbaro's undoing. And, I was not alone in that observation. The "wise guy" handicappers just couldn't see how Barbaro could come in with rust on him and win this huge race. Well, Mike Matz (trainer) got it right and the first horse since 1956 to win with 5 weeks or more rest got the roses.
Congratulations as well to
Bluegrass Cat, who I thought was a much under-rated horse. He showed his mettle yesterday running truer to his 2 year old form than this years. However, he was 2nd best; but catching him at 30-1 provided some very nice place and show prices.
Of the stone closers, both
Steppenwolfer and
Jazil hit the board. Steppenwolfer rounded out the triple while Jazil and
Brother Derek rounded out the twin superfecta. Steppenwolfer had fewer traffic problems than Jazil and clearly got 3rd; with Jazil closing fast. Up until the 3/4 mark, Jazil was last behind some 15 lengths. Nice effort for him in a ton of traffic.
What happened to my other picks?
Sweetnorthernsaint had the worst start of all the horses in the race. Just out of the gate, Sweetnorthernsaint was soundly bumped by
Private Vow, who had no business in the race. Private Vow's jockey, Shaun Bridgmohan, came out of the gate and made a bee line to the rail; but, did it at the expense of Sweetnorthernsaint. To avoid going down, Kent Desormeaux, had to steady Sweetnorthernsaint, causing him to lose valuable ground right at the start. Desormeaux now had no other choice but to high-tail it to the rail and he was now 11th, a place he never wanted to be. As they made their run up the backstretch, there was a very narrow opening at the rail and Desormeaux squeezed Sweetnorthernsaint through it to reach contention on the far turn now getting into 3rd. However, when you take the rail trip, you run the risk of being behind tiring speed and that is exactly what happened.
Sinister Minister had taken the lead; but was beginning to tire and was now backing up. Desormeaux had no choice but to steady Sweetnorthernsaint yet again and cutting off his momentum. Horses are not cars where you can switch gears at will. Sweetnorthernsaint was now tiring from his efforts and likely "spooked" by what was going on. One of the worst Derby trips I've seen.
Sinister Minister, my other pick, went as far as he could in a brutal pace. Now I know why Garrett Gomez opted to go elsewhere allowing Victor Espinoza the mount. Yesterday proved that Sinister Minister cannot rate. This was one of my picks where I felt he would either win or be last. Speed kills--in route races.
A.P. Warrior- Got bumped at the start and was in a ton of traffic. This horse was spooked and he never handled the deeper surface of Churchill Downs. This was just not to be A.P. Warrior's day and credit to Corey Nakatani to not use the whip on this horse as he just never fired.
The one horse I did not use in my bets that I had feared was
Bob & John. There was no need to fear. This horse looked like a totally different animal than what raced in the Wood Memorial. An inexplicably no-show performance.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: The Derby should be restricted to the top 12 horses on the basis of earnings--with their earnings being rated on a point system. A 20 horse field is a cavalry charge that never has form holding up. However, this will never happen as Churchill Downs is not about to let $36Million bet in the win pool to slip away. Luck is as good as skill in the Derby- proven yet again.
Well, now it's off to the Preakness, which is in 2 weeks and is a much formful race. Rarely do you have more than 10 entrants in the Preakness; so, form holds up much more. Remember last year when Giacomo stunned in the Derby and he came crashing to earth in the Preakness. Barbaro looks like a horse that could be Triple Crown material; but, he won't have things as easy in the Preakness.
May the horse be with you---next time,
Racetrack Lenny
Derby Handicap
After last year's Derby debacle, the phrase "On any given Saturday, any horse can win" was given new meaning. Form went out the window and we had the flukiest Derby in history. That's what makes handicapping this one so tough--everyone is trying to find this year's Giacomo. While you might think it can't happen again; well, think again. This race has too many entrants at 20 and luck is as good as skill in such a cavalry charge. Here are my thoughts on each of the entries:
1.
Jazil- One run closer gets buried at the rail which is where you do not want a closer; however, this horse is SO slow out of the gate that it might not matter. His 2nd place finish in the Wood Memorial was visually impressive and he was dead last 20 lenghts off the lead at the 1/2 mile mark. He got 2nd missing by 1-1/2 lengths. If Fernando Jara can keep his horse out of traffic and get a rail skimming ride, this is a live longshot closer who can pick up the pieces. Definitely worth playing underneath in exacta, trifecta and superfecta bets.
2.
Steppenwolfer- Another stone closer buried at the rail. Looked good closing in the Arkansas Derby; but, I think the competition in that race was less than what raced in the Wood. Another with a shot if a pace meltdown occurs.
3.
Keyed Entry- Very speedy horse who has 2 triple-digit Beyers under his belt. However, Edgar Prado had a choice between this horse and #8
Barbaro, and he chose Barbaro. Keyed Entry got caught in the 1 mile Gotham, finished a staggering 3rd in the Wood Memorial. Nothing here to make me think he can get a mile and a quarter under his belt.
4.
Sinister Minister- Was clearly going to win the California Derby when jockey Martin Garcia kept whipping the horse right handed causing the horse to lug in and hit the rail twice. That idiocy cost Sinister Minister the race. The owner/trainer had the smarts to fire Garcia and replace him with Garrett Gomez for the Blue Grass, which Sinister Minister won with authority posting a 116 Beyer in the process. And, therein lies the problem. The California Derby speed rating came back a 91 despite the rail mishap. Had the horse gone a straight course, I believe he might have hit a 100. Sinister's prior career best Beyer was a 102. So, is he a candidate to regress and bounce off the Blue Grass or is he at the top of his form cycle? We'll know tomorrow. Garrett Gomez had his choice of either Sinister Minister or
#7 Bob & John; and he selected Bob & John. Sinister Minister will either wire the field or be among the last 3--still hard to toss out.
5.
Point Determined- West Coast based horse who has run consistently well. However, in none of his races was he able to get past
#18 Brother Derek or #10 A.P. Warrior. Those two are here tomorrow. With Bob & John, you have a West Coast based horse who came East and won. West Coast tracks tend to be much harder than their softer, sandier East Coast counterparts and I have a feeling Point Determined will not take to the surface, much like his daddy, Point Given.
6.
Showing Up- With only 3 career starts under his belt, pass.
7.
Bob & John- Garrett Gomez's choice and I can see why. Just a cut below his West Coast competition, he came East and won the Wood Memorial over a sloppy track. He sat 2nd most of the way in the 2 path behind Keyed Entry. When Keyed Entry got rubbery-legged, Bob & John just kept grinding it out to score the win. It's these kind of "grinders" that get the roses. However, Bob & John's wins have come when he has been no worse than 3rd during the race. If he tries that tomorrow, he'll be cooked in a speed duel. If he goes off less than 10-1, you're not getting value. Anything above 10-1--make a "saver" wager.
8.
Barbaro- Winner of 5 in a row; yet, I'm unconvinced. The long layoff since the Florida Derby concerns me as does the level of competition in the Fla. Derby. This horse will get lots of play and will be a huge underlay. Not enough value for the money.
9.
Sharp Humor- Speedball who needs the lead to win. Was a tiring 2nd in the Fla. Derby when they hit a half mile in 47-1/5. Tomorrow's half mile split will be faster. Once Sharp Humor engages Sinister Minister and Keyed Entry, you can close the curtains. Pass.
10.
A.P. Warrior- Seems to be at the peak of his current form cycle posting a 100 and 101 Beyer rating in his last 2 starts. A one-run closer with a good post position and a good jockey in Corey Nakatani. Very playable.
11.
Sweetnorthernsaint- With all the hype surrounding Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron; plus, the sudden attention being given to Point Determined, #11 could get "lost in the shuffle". That is good for the bettor because this is my pick. His last 4 races at different racetracks have resulted in Beyers of 102, 104, 104, and 109--consistently good. At the top of his form cycle and with his consistency, I believe this is the horse to beat. He displayed that he could rate in his last 2 races. Anything at 5-1 or higher on this entrant is an overlay. The winner.
12.
Private Vow- This horse has more excuses than George W. Bush. He's always in the mix but caves in when it counts. His recent form suggests he is in a down cycle. Pass.
13.
Bluegrass Cat- 2 year old form was sensational; 3 year old form leaves a lot to be desired. However, for some reason, I happen to think he can have a big say tomorrow. His form is nearly identical to Thunder Gulch, the winner of the 1995 Derby at 24-1. Thunder Gulch had 2 horrible efforts coming into the Derby and looked like his 2 year old self in the Derby. Could history repeat? Maybe not; but, I'm making a saver wager on this one just in case. 30-1 odds or higher are likely.
14.
Deputy Glitters- Impressive winner of the Tampa Bay Derby at 8-1. Scored a 102 Beyer that day despite weak competition. His Wood Memorial effort was horrific over a sloppy track; however, a fast track is a guarantee tomorrow. If you throw out the Wood, his efforts this year don't make this an impossible choice. I wish the owners/trainer would have gotten a name jockey instead of Jose Lezcano; however, another "saver" wager potential. Not out of it.
15.
Seaside Retreat- If this horse wins, you will be able to vacation at a Seaside Retreat for about a month as this one would pay boxcars of money. Excellent candidate to be last.
16.
Cause To Believe- A versatile horse; however, his best speed figure is a 98 in the California Derby which he won by 4. The far outside post is a killer. Can't see him overcoming that.
17.
Lawyer Ron- The most experienced horse in the field making the Derby his 13th career start. Has reeled off 6 in a row in Louisiana and Arkansas. Generally has the lead; but, he can rate when he has to. While he has a 106 Beyer, that came 4 races ago and his subsequent efforts have been in the mid to upper 90's. While consistent, he hasn't beaten much and post 17 really compromises this one's chances. Another factor to consider is he's been racing hard practically once a month and maybe he's about to tail off.
18.
Brother Derek- The morning line favorite. Last 4 race Beyers have ranged between 102 and 108. His races have come against short fields- The San Rafael had 4 entries and the Santa Anita Derby had 5 entries. In each case, Brother Derek was the controlling speed. With 19 others in the race, this is unchartered territory for this horse and his connections aren't thrilled with the extreme outside post. He'll have to be hustled very hard out of the gate to get good position and that will take some starch out of him. At 3-1, not worth the risk for your money. Very beatable.
19.
Storm Treasure- Suck-up 2nd in the Blue Grass to Sweetnorthernsaint (someone had to be 2nd) at 65-1. Before you bet the mortgage, his 95 Beyer was his career best and that left him 12 lengths back in 2nd. 'Nuff said.
20.
Flashy Bull- Mediocre Beyers and the far outside post really compromise this one's chances. Mike Smith (last year's winning jockey) takes the mount; but, I don't see lightning striking twice for Mike. No factor at all.
Bets:$10 WPS- # 11- Sweetnorthernsaint $2 WPS- #4- Sinister Minister $1 WPS- #10- A.P. Warrior $2 Win- #13- Bluegrass Cat $2 Win- # 14- Deputy Glitters $2 Exacta Box: (#1) Jazil, (#4) Sinister Minister,(#10) A.P. Warrior, (#11) Sweetnorthernsaint (simplified: $2 Exacta Box- 1/4/10/11)$2 Triple-Part Wheel: (#11) Sweetnorthernsaint & (#4) Sinister Minister over
(#11) Sweetnorthernsaint & (#4) Sinister Minister over
(#10) A.P. Warrior, (#1) Jazil, (#14) Deputy Glitters & (#13) Bluegrass Cat. (simplified: $2 Triple: 4/11 with 4/11 with 1/10/13/14)$1 Superfecta Part Wheel: #11 Sweetnorthernsaint & #4 Sinister Minister over
#11 Sweetnorthernsaint & #1 Jazil, #4 Sinister Minister over
#1 Jazil, #10 A.P. Warrior, #13 Bluegrass Cat over #10 A.P. Warrior, #13 Bluegrass Cat, #14 Deputy Glitters. (simplified:$2 Superfecta: 4/11 with 1/4/11 with 1/10/13 with 10/13/14)
Good luck everyone, may the horse be with you!
Racetrack Lenny
