Preakness
Who would have thought only 3 Derby contenders would show up for the Preakness? No matter, we still have to try to pick a winner in what is a combination stakes and allowance race. Some of the new faces just don't belong in this race; but, track management must be thrilled to have a field of 9 which will allow for all the exotic wagers. Here's my thoughts on the field by post position:1. Like Now- Pimlico plays well to front runners with its hard surface, tight turns and short stretch. Speed at the rail is dangerous at Pimlico. Like Now needs the lead to do his best and the question is whether he can get the 1-3/16th mile distance. The owner/trainer must also like their chances since they have replaced regular rider, 18 year old Fernando Jara, with journeyman Garrett Gomez, who has been hot of late. This is a live longshot who might wire the field or be tiring and still get in the money. At morning line odds of 12-1, a win is not out of the question. He could be this year's Scrappy T.
2. Platinum Couple- Top Beyer speed figure is an 82, this horse will likely be last.
3. Hemingway's Key- George Steinbrenner wants the spotlight and this is his best chance to get it. Unfortunately, his horse's chances of being in the spotlight are slim. He would need a complete pace meltdown in order to plod home first. Another candidate to be last.
4. Greeley's Legacy- Ran a strong Gotham at Aqueduct in March when he closed to get 4th, beaten a length and a quarter over a dead rail. He posted a 103 Beyer that day but has significantly regressed in his 2 subsequent races. The field's legitimate closer on his best day. Not impossible.
5. Brother Derek- Likely to be the 2nd choice in the wagering behind Barbaro. Cursed with a far outside post in the Derby, this speedster still accounted well for himself finishing a dead-heated 4th with Jazil. This race will be much more to his liking with the much shorter field and a hard track similar to what he's raced on out West. Certainly one of the top horses.
6. Barbaro- Ran the race of his life in the Derby posting a crushing 111 Beyer speed rating and beating the field by 6 widening lengths under a brisk hand ride. A very deserving Preakness favorite. For the bettor, getting 2/5 or 3/5 isn't an enticing proposition. My uncle Al used to say "Hardly a man is still alive that paid the mortgage at 3/5". If you're looking for money, go to the bank. Getting $3 for betting $5? Not for me. Also keep in mind that Barbaro's races have always been well spaced apart to allow for at least 30 days rest between starts. The Preakness comes just 2 weeks after the Derby. Great horse; but, vulnerable. The pace scenario will be different and I don't think he will win.
7. Sweetnorthernsaint- Had what must have been one of the top 5 worst trips in Derby history. Horse is capable of much better, the question is "will the memory of the demolition derby still be in his head?" If so, he may not fire his best. If not, he will rebound nicely and will be right there. Will likely be the 3rd choice in the wagering and anything above 4-1 would be good value.
8. Bernardini- The Preakness will represent this horse's 4th career start. Beyer speed figures are going the right way and his Withers Stakes victory was legit-albeit in a field of 4 horses. He seems to me to be too lightly raced to win this; but, a top 4 finish at decent odds is not out of the realm of possibility.
9. Diabolical- A nice allowance horse who needs the lead to win. Problem is that outside post will have him wide outside both Like Now and Bernardini. Wide speed trips seldom get the job done and he might be a pace factor that will be backing up in the stretch.
The Bets:
The only value play in this race is the exacta. You will be able to not bet your head off and still have a chance of capturing a nice price. If you believe the 3 Derby contenders will finish 1,2,3; then, the triple and superfecta will pay $200 or less making boxing 4 horses in those bets an unappetizing gamble. So, here is my value play:
$2 Exacta Wheel: #1 Like Now over ALL. ($16)
$2 Exacta Back Wheel: ALL over #1 Like Now ($16)
Here's hoping Like Now finishes 1st or 2nd.
May the horse be with you,
Racetrack Lenny
racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 6:03 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home