Racetrack Lenny

Derby Handicap

After last year's Derby debacle, the phrase "On any given Saturday, any horse can win" was given new meaning. Form went out the window and we had the flukiest Derby in history. That's what makes handicapping this one so tough--everyone is trying to find this year's Giacomo. While you might think it can't happen again; well, think again. This race has too many entrants at 20 and luck is as good as skill in such a cavalry charge. Here are my thoughts on each of the entries:

1. Jazil- One run closer gets buried at the rail which is where you do not want a closer; however, this horse is SO slow out of the gate that it might not matter. His 2nd place finish in the Wood Memorial was visually impressive and he was dead last 20 lenghts off the lead at the 1/2 mile mark. He got 2nd missing by 1-1/2 lengths. If Fernando Jara can keep his horse out of traffic and get a rail skimming ride, this is a live longshot closer who can pick up the pieces. Definitely worth playing underneath in exacta, trifecta and superfecta bets.

2. Steppenwolfer- Another stone closer buried at the rail. Looked good closing in the Arkansas Derby; but, I think the competition in that race was less than what raced in the Wood. Another with a shot if a pace meltdown occurs.

3. Keyed Entry- Very speedy horse who has 2 triple-digit Beyers under his belt. However, Edgar Prado had a choice between this horse and #8 Barbaro, and he chose Barbaro. Keyed Entry got caught in the 1 mile Gotham, finished a staggering 3rd in the Wood Memorial. Nothing here to make me think he can get a mile and a quarter under his belt.

4. Sinister Minister- Was clearly going to win the California Derby when jockey Martin Garcia kept whipping the horse right handed causing the horse to lug in and hit the rail twice. That idiocy cost Sinister Minister the race. The owner/trainer had the smarts to fire Garcia and replace him with Garrett Gomez for the Blue Grass, which Sinister Minister won with authority posting a 116 Beyer in the process. And, therein lies the problem. The California Derby speed rating came back a 91 despite the rail mishap. Had the horse gone a straight course, I believe he might have hit a 100. Sinister's prior career best Beyer was a 102. So, is he a candidate to regress and bounce off the Blue Grass or is he at the top of his form cycle? We'll know tomorrow. Garrett Gomez had his choice of either Sinister Minister or #7 Bob & John; and he selected Bob & John. Sinister Minister will either wire the field or be among the last 3--still hard to toss out.

5. Point Determined- West Coast based horse who has run consistently well. However, in none of his races was he able to get past #18 Brother Derek or #10 A.P. Warrior. Those two are here tomorrow. With Bob & John, you have a West Coast based horse who came East and won. West Coast tracks tend to be much harder than their softer, sandier East Coast counterparts and I have a feeling Point Determined will not take to the surface, much like his daddy, Point Given.

6. Showing Up- With only 3 career starts under his belt, pass.

7. Bob & John- Garrett Gomez's choice and I can see why. Just a cut below his West Coast competition, he came East and won the Wood Memorial over a sloppy track. He sat 2nd most of the way in the 2 path behind Keyed Entry. When Keyed Entry got rubbery-legged, Bob & John just kept grinding it out to score the win. It's these kind of "grinders" that get the roses. However, Bob & John's wins have come when he has been no worse than 3rd during the race. If he tries that tomorrow, he'll be cooked in a speed duel. If he goes off less than 10-1, you're not getting value. Anything above 10-1--make a "saver" wager.

8. Barbaro- Winner of 5 in a row; yet, I'm unconvinced. The long layoff since the Florida Derby concerns me as does the level of competition in the Fla. Derby. This horse will get lots of play and will be a huge underlay. Not enough value for the money.

9. Sharp Humor- Speedball who needs the lead to win. Was a tiring 2nd in the Fla. Derby when they hit a half mile in 47-1/5. Tomorrow's half mile split will be faster. Once Sharp Humor engages Sinister Minister and Keyed Entry, you can close the curtains. Pass.

10. A.P. Warrior- Seems to be at the peak of his current form cycle posting a 100 and 101 Beyer rating in his last 2 starts. A one-run closer with a good post position and a good jockey in Corey Nakatani. Very playable.

11. Sweetnorthernsaint- With all the hype surrounding Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron; plus, the sudden attention being given to Point Determined, #11 could get "lost in the shuffle". That is good for the bettor because this is my pick. His last 4 races at different racetracks have resulted in Beyers of 102, 104, 104, and 109--consistently good. At the top of his form cycle and with his consistency, I believe this is the horse to beat. He displayed that he could rate in his last 2 races. Anything at 5-1 or higher on this entrant is an overlay. The winner.

12. Private Vow- This horse has more excuses than George W. Bush. He's always in the mix but caves in when it counts. His recent form suggests he is in a down cycle. Pass.

13. Bluegrass Cat- 2 year old form was sensational; 3 year old form leaves a lot to be desired. However, for some reason, I happen to think he can have a big say tomorrow. His form is nearly identical to Thunder Gulch, the winner of the 1995 Derby at 24-1. Thunder Gulch had 2 horrible efforts coming into the Derby and looked like his 2 year old self in the Derby. Could history repeat? Maybe not; but, I'm making a saver wager on this one just in case. 30-1 odds or higher are likely.

14. Deputy Glitters- Impressive winner of the Tampa Bay Derby at 8-1. Scored a 102 Beyer that day despite weak competition. His Wood Memorial effort was horrific over a sloppy track; however, a fast track is a guarantee tomorrow. If you throw out the Wood, his efforts this year don't make this an impossible choice. I wish the owners/trainer would have gotten a name jockey instead of Jose Lezcano; however, another "saver" wager potential. Not out of it.

15. Seaside Retreat- If this horse wins, you will be able to vacation at a Seaside Retreat for about a month as this one would pay boxcars of money. Excellent candidate to be last.

16. Cause To Believe- A versatile horse; however, his best speed figure is a 98 in the California Derby which he won by 4. The far outside post is a killer. Can't see him overcoming that.

17. Lawyer Ron- The most experienced horse in the field making the Derby his 13th career start. Has reeled off 6 in a row in Louisiana and Arkansas. Generally has the lead; but, he can rate when he has to. While he has a 106 Beyer, that came 4 races ago and his subsequent efforts have been in the mid to upper 90's. While consistent, he hasn't beaten much and post 17 really compromises this one's chances. Another factor to consider is he's been racing hard practically once a month and maybe he's about to tail off.

18. Brother Derek- The morning line favorite. Last 4 race Beyers have ranged between 102 and 108. His races have come against short fields- The San Rafael had 4 entries and the Santa Anita Derby had 5 entries. In each case, Brother Derek was the controlling speed. With 19 others in the race, this is unchartered territory for this horse and his connections aren't thrilled with the extreme outside post. He'll have to be hustled very hard out of the gate to get good position and that will take some starch out of him. At 3-1, not worth the risk for your money. Very beatable.

19. Storm Treasure- Suck-up 2nd in the Blue Grass to Sweetnorthernsaint (someone had to be 2nd) at 65-1. Before you bet the mortgage, his 95 Beyer was his career best and that left him 12 lengths back in 2nd. 'Nuff said.

20. Flashy Bull- Mediocre Beyers and the far outside post really compromise this one's chances. Mike Smith (last year's winning jockey) takes the mount; but, I don't see lightning striking twice for Mike. No factor at all.

Bets:

$10 WPS- # 11- Sweetnorthernsaint
$2 WPS- #4- Sinister Minister
$1 WPS- #10- A.P. Warrior
$2 Win- #13- Bluegrass Cat
$2 Win- # 14- Deputy Glitters

$2 Exacta Box: (#1) Jazil, (#4) Sinister Minister,(#10) A.P. Warrior, (#11) Sweetnorthernsaint (simplified: $2 Exacta Box- 1/4/10/11)

$2 Triple-Part Wheel: (#11) Sweetnorthernsaint & (#4) Sinister Minister over (#11) Sweetnorthernsaint & (#4) Sinister Minister over (#10) A.P. Warrior, (#1) Jazil, (#14) Deputy Glitters & (#13) Bluegrass Cat. (simplified: $2 Triple: 4/11 with 4/11 with 1/10/13/14)

$1 Superfecta Part Wheel: #11 Sweetnorthernsaint & #4 Sinister Minister over #11 Sweetnorthernsaint & #1 Jazil, #4 Sinister Minister over #1 Jazil, #10 A.P. Warrior, #13 Bluegrass Cat over #10 A.P. Warrior, #13 Bluegrass Cat, #14 Deputy Glitters. (simplified:$2 Superfecta: 4/11 with 1/4/11 with 1/10/13 with 10/13/14)

Good luck everyone, may the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 1:06 PM