Wrong Bird Wins Belmont
Yesterday's Belmont will be one of the more memorable ones for me simply because the way I thought the race would play out is pretty much how it unfolded. The end result was my saver bet on
Summer Bird afforded a nice reward at 11.90/1. Had
Mine That Bird hung on for 2nd, a nice exacta would have made for a very rewarding day. In any event, I collected more than I bet; so, that's a win.
In a race lacking speed, the experts were predicting that
Charitable Man would go for the lead and go as far as he could. The same was predicted of
Miner's Escape. Instead, it was stalker,
Dunkirk, who changed tactics and went for the lead. And did he ever go for it! The opening quarter was 23-2/5ths and the half in 47, a very strong pace. I was sitting confident that my closers would save the day. At the far turn,
Dunkirk continued his strong pace.
Charitable Man &
Mr. Hot Stuff, made a run at him; but, both began to wilt and
Dunkirk was now joined by a fast coming
Mine That Bird who was forced to go three wide to get into contention.
Mine That Bird has a 1/2 length lead; but, somehow
Dunkirk found another gear and remained a stubborn foe by coming on again in the stretch. What both horses didn't see was that jockey Kent Desormeaux had
Summer Bird in 5th gear and he was closing powerfully with every stride. About 100 yards out,
Summer Bird blew by and
Mine That Bird had to settle for a heartbreaking 3rd as
Dunkirk got 2nd by a little under a neck.
Dunkirk will need a rest now since the Belmont took a lot out of him. He had to be hosed down after the race since
Dunkirk gave it all he had. For a horse to set the fractions he did and still finish 2nd was impressive. I didn't think he had it in him.
I felt bad, as did the crowd, for Calvin Borel. It would have been a great story for him to get his personal triple crown. He was gracious in defeat. However, you would have thought that Borel's agent or his trainer could have enticed an owner/trainer in one of the earlier races running a hopeless longshot to give Borel a mount just so he could get a feel for the track and know where things were. By not doing that, I believe Borel pushed the button too soon on
Mine That Bird and the rest is history. Same thing happened in 2004 with Stewart Elliott on Smarty Jones. Doesn't anyone learn from past mistakes?
Well, it's now a waiting game for the Haskell at Monmouth and the Travers at Saratoga to see who turns up to keep this competitive year going.
May the horse be with you,
Racetrack Lenny
The Belmont: 2009
Well, tomorrow's the big day. I sure wish we hadn't had 3 days of rain; but, the forecast is for clearing skies tomorrow and we hope Craig Allen is right. If it clears early enough, maybe the track will be fast by post time.
1.
Chocolate Candy- (Garrett Gomez) 10/1: His wins have come over the polytracks in California. He ran on dirt for the first time in the Derby and finished a respectable 5th. A couple of good workouts at Belmont Park. Running style is that of a stalker; however, in a field devoid of speed, he may be up much closer than usual. He has never had a speed figure in triple-digits; but, perhaps a fast dirt track will show us what he's made of. He has Seattle Slew in his bloodline. Not impossible; but, not probable.
2.
Dunkirk- (John Velasquez) 4/1: A $3.7M yearling purchase who was not raced at age 2. As a 3 year old, the Belmont would be his 5th lifetime start. His owners are treating him more gently than their grandmother's china! Ran sensationally in the Florida Derby finishing 2nd to Quality Road, who was subsequently injured. In finishing 2nd,
Dunkirk posted a speed figure of 108 which would get the job done here. His Ky. Derby was a disaster. He stumbled at the start, was advancing into 9th position on the backstretch when he had to steady twice. The end result was a lacklustre 11th place finish. I wish he had more seasoning. Of concern is 3 out of his 4 races show "stumbled leaving the gate". If he can't get out of the gate well, you expend energy trying to catch up. Too untested to take 4/1 on him.
3.
Mr. Hot Stuff- (Edgar Prado) 15/1: Another West Coast polytrack specialist where he won his maiden in Feb. after 5 starts. His lone start on dirt was at the Ky. Derby and that didn't go so well. He was soundly bumped twice and was squeezed at the start. He also didn't care for mud and finished 15th. If you're willing to toss out the Derby, then he looks like someone that might hit the bottom of a superfecta ticket (i.e. finish 4th) as he does have some closing kick.
4.
Summer Bird- (Kent Desormeaux) 12/1: His 3rd place finish in the Arkansas Derby earned him a 94 speed rating. He made up 15 lenghts in the stretch to get 3rd. In the Ky. Derby, he was wide throughout and was fanned 7 wide at the top of the stretch to finish 6th. He finished better than it looks on paper. Desormeaux is an improvement over Chris Rosier. Keep in mind, Desormeaux is seeking redemption from last year's brown-bagger performance by Big Brown. His bloodline includes both Birdstone and Grindstone; so, we know distance isn't a problem. A very live longshot.
5.
Luv Guv- (Miguel Mena) 20/1: Named after N.Y. ex-Gov. Eliot Spitzer. Took him 10 races before winning his maiden. D. Wayne Lukas immediately threw him into the Preakness where he was beaten 9 lengths. A versatile runner, he can take the lead, stalk or close. He just can't seem to win. In over his head. It would be a riot if he did win and Gov. David Paterson handed the trophy to the horse named for his predecesor.
6.
Charitable Man- (Alan Garcia) 3/1: Yes, he did win the Peter Pan Stakes 4 weeks ago and posted a 100 speed figure. He raced behind Hello Broadway who opened up by 8 lenghts at a suicidal pace and
Charitable Man ran by him like Hello Broadway was standing still...because Hello Broadway WAS standing still. In the Peter Pan,
Charitable Man toted 116 lbs. Tomorrow he carries 126. 10 lbs. makes a big difference. He's a front runner and I don't think he will get the distance after only 4 lifetime starts. At 3/1, he's a huge underlay.
7.
Mine That Bird- (Calvin Borel) 2/1: I want in the worst kind of way to see Calvin Borel win his own jockey triple crown. I just don't think it will happen, despite Borel's guarantee.
Mine That Bird has been a different horse since they changed tactics and have turned him into a one run closer. Deep closers rarely win the Belmont; but, it has happened. This week's rains will likely have the racetrack deeper than usual. Borel will go right to the rail and the rail may be the deepest part of the track tomorrow. Inexplicably, Borel is listed to ride in one earlier race---on the turf! How idiotic is that? His agent should have been able to coax some owner to allow Borel to ride at least a longshot in a dirt race so Calvin can get a feel for the track and know where he is at all times. Belmont is the only 1-1/2 mile track in the country and it is different than any other track. Borel not having an early mount is a mistake. That being said,
Mine That Bird has proven that he belongs and I expect him to do well.
8.
Flying Private- (Julien Leparoux) 12/1: A not too bad Arkansas Derby, a horrific Ky. Derby (last) and a dramatic improvement in the Preakness earning him his first triple-digit speed rating. Will he "bounce" after that effort or is he on an improving form cycle? I believe he's on the improve and he's playable underneath in your triples.
9.
Miner's Escape- (Jose Lezcano) 15/1: His best speed rating is an 89 in the Frederico Tesio at Pimlico on May 2nd. He was on the lead through Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade fractions. His win would be one of the greatest upsets of all time.
10.
Brave Victory- (Rajiv Maragh) 15/1: A Nick Zito horse that appears to be on an improving form cycle. His Peter Pan run wasn't bad...wasn't good; but, wasn't bad. He can close when he wants to or he can stalk when he can. Between Zito's
Miner's Escape &
Brave Victory, the latter has a better chance.
With no speed in this race, I think
Charitable Man will inherit the lead with
Miner's Escape pressing him. They'll be joined by
Luv Guv who will try to stay 2 or 3 lenghts back hoping he can last the distance. I expect the track may be listed as "good" or "wet fast". It will be a tiring track. I expect the half mile to go in 49-4/5ths, a crawl.
Chocolate Candy will be mid-pack stalking and begins to make his move approaching the far turn. Velasquez, Desormeaux and Prado will get busy on their mounts and Borel will bide his time with
Mine That Bird. As they turn for home,
Chocolate Candy will have a short lead with
Flying Private getting closer and
Dunkirk just a length behind.
Summer Bird will be about 3 lenghts back; but, have dead aim on the leaders. Calvin Borel will realize the rail is dead and swing to the outside with
Mine That Bird. Through the stretch,
Dunkirk will fade leaving the "birds" to battle it out with Calvin Borel getting his personal triple crown and
Summer Bird right there with him for a "tweet tweet" exacta.
Flying Private flattens out a bit and gets 3rd while
Mr. Hot Stuff closes belatedly for 4th.
BETS:$2 exacta: 4,7 with 1,3,4,7,8 ($20)
$1 triple: 4,7 with 4,7 with 1,3,8 ($6)
$1 triple: 4,7 with 1,3,8 with 4,7 ($6)
$2 WPS: 4,7 ($12)
Total bet: $44
Good luck, may the horse be with you.
Racetrack Lenny
