Finally Cash In--On A Show Bet!- Belmont Post-Mortem
You handicap for a fast track or for a sloppy track, you never, ever think that you'd have to handicap for a windy track. That's what happened yesterday. Yes, the week long rain was over. In its wake came blue skies, unusually cool weather and a west wind that was gusting up to 40 mph. Since the Belmont oval is east-west, that meant horses going down the backstrecth were going into a strong headwind and coming down the stretch, they got a strong tailwind.
Speed was not holding up at Belmont yesterday because those going into the wind in quick fractions were tiring at the end making it heaven for closers. However, since the Belmont was the 11th race on the card and since each jockey had raced at least 1 race during the day, the jockeys knew what they would encounter on the backstetch and would act accordingly. The race would go one of 2 ways: Someone would set a slow pace and last to the end or someone would set a blistering pace and closers would hold sway. Closers held sway. Congratulations to Jazil on a terrific race and to 18 year old jockey Fernando Jara who rode a masterful race with his 1 run closer.
I expected High Finance to make the lead. I also expected Eibar Coa would slow things down. I figured an opening quarter of about 25 seconds and a half in 50 seconds or a bit slower. Instead, jockey Garrett Gomez uncharacteristically gunned Bob & John to the front. He was joined by Deputy Glitters in the middle of the track and the longest shot on the board, Double Galore, joined them on the outside. High Finance made a bee line to the rail and was sitting 4th, which I thought was exactly where I wanted him. Then came the kiss of death, the quarter time was 23 seconds flat. I began kicking myself for not having put a substantial bet on Jazil. Even though he was 12th at the quarter and 20 lengths from the front, the race was setting up nicely for him.
The top 3 (Bob & John, Deputy Glitters, Double Galore) continued their pressured pace and Deputy Glitters drifted out a bit into the 2 path. For reasons unknown, jockey Eibar Coa gunned High Finance through the opening at the rail to now be a clear 2nd. The half mile went in 47-1/5 seconds. At that point, I knew my bets were toast. In today's news, I heard that Bob Baffert instructed Garrett Gomez to go for the lead with Bob & John and try to steal the race. However, you steal a race when you put the field to sleep through soft fractions; you don't do it by sprinting for a mile and a half. Somebody, please buy a stop watch for Garrett, he needs one embedded in his head.
Once mid-way up the backstretch, Bluegrass Cat joined the fray and Steppenwolfer was much closer than usual. Jazil was still last a good 20 or so lenghts back. Then Jara gave Jazil a love tap and off to the races went Jazil. 3/4 of a mile in 1:12- a sizzling pace and Jazil was now weaving his way through traffic picking off horses one by one. By the middle of the far turn, Bluegrass Cat had taken the lead. The early leaders had been cooked in their speed duel and now it was the stalkers and closers turn to do some running. The contest went to Jazil who went by Bluegrass Cat at the top of the stretch and was never seriously threatened thereafter. Sunriver began his close along the rail but could not get the place from Bluegrass Cat. It was Sunriver finishing 3rd that allowed me to cash my first ticket of this year's triple crown--a $6.10 show price. I guess it's better than a sharp stick in the eye.
The fast fractions and the strong headwind set the race up in picture perfect form for a closer and Jazil was the closer that I really liked. However, I could have handicapped that race a million times and I would never have thought that they would go a half mile in 47 seconds. That was sheer stupidity on the part of the front runner's owners/trainers and jockeys.
Well, we hope for better luck next year. It's been a bizarre triple crown series this year. A dominating Derby win for Barbaro; Barbaro then breaks down in the Preakness and Bernardini turns in a huge performance to win big--which was overshadowed by Barbaro's injury; and then Bernardini says "no, thank you" to the Belmont. Let's hope for some consistency next year.
May the horse be with you,
Racetrack Lenny
The Belmont
Tough race to handicap because it is so wide open. You can make a case for 10 out of the 12 horses to win the race. Comments on each:
1.
Platinum Couple- Plodder whose best Beyer speed rating is 82. That makes him a candidate to be last or next to last. No chance.
2.
Sunriver- Finished 3rd behind Barbaro in the Florida Derby and won the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park just 3 weeks ago. He won that race coming from off a stalking pace and earned a 102 speed rating. Has a stalking style that plays very well in the Belmont. Will have a huge say in the outcome and is very playable. May likely be the favorite at post time.
3.
Hemingway's Key- Actually ran a good race in the Preakness finishing 3rd, beaten 11 lenghts and earning his career best speed figure of 95. Would have to improve off that in order to be competitive here. He is a deep closer and this race doesn't have a ton of speed. Since he is devoid of early foot, he may not be in a good position to pounce at the end. Perhaps rounding out the Superfecta is the best he can hope for.
4.
Bob and John- Was doing very well on the West Coast, shipped out East for the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, run on a sloppy track, and won that race in impressive style. Ran in the Ky. Derby and never lifted a hoof, finishing 17th out of 20. What went wrong? Who knows? His workouts since the Derby have been very sharp--but they have been out at Santa Anita which favors speed. Shipping back to California from Kentucky and then back to New York in a 4 week stretch may prove a bit much for this one. At 5-1, the odds aren't particularly appetizing.
5.
High Finance- The real lone speed in the race. The question is will Eibar Coa be able to rate him and get a 1/2 mile in 50 seconds or so. If he does, I believe it's High Finance's race to lose. If he can't rate, and he goes the 1/2 mile in 48 seconds or faster, look for a closer. Tough to figure what he will do; but, very dangerous given the lack of speed in this race. A very live longshot.
6.
Oh So Awesome- Had been racing long distances on the turf in France and shipped to Belmont for a May 19th turf race that got rained off onto the main track. The horse took to the mud and finished 3rd, beaten only 3 lengths. The speed rating of 91 is of concern and we don't know how he might handle a fast track. His workouts since 5/19 have been on the sluggish side; however, Mother Nature hasn't been cooperating in the Northeast with 2 weeks of rain. A minor check is the top aspiration for this one; however, we know he can get the distance.
7.
Deputy Glitters- His 2 races at Tampa Bay Downs were terrific. He finished 2nd to Bluegrass Cat missing by a length on 2/18/06 and then turned the tables on Bluegrass Cat in the Tampa Bay Derby beating Bluegrass Cat by 2 lenghts. Ran a horrific race in the Wood Memorial when he displayed his hatred of mud. That race should be a throw-out. Dismissed as the longest shot on the board in the Ky. Derby (60-1), he finished a respectable 8th out of 20. His jockey, Jose Lezcano, took the overland route going 11 wide at the top of the Churchill Downs stretch. I thought he would wind up in the stands. Fortunately, the owner and trainer fired Lezcano and have replaced him with Edgar Prado. If the track is fast, this horse is a very live longshot and very playable. If the track is anything but fast, toss this horse since he hates mud.
8.
Jazil- His best finishes have come with Fernando Jara aboard and Jara is back in the saddle. That being said, Jazil is a one-run closer who comes from out of the clouds to win and that type of move wins fewer Belmonts than you would think. Jara will have to keep Jazil closer to the pace to have any chance of wearing down the front runners. A must use in your triples and superfectas.
9.
Bluegrass Cat- Not a bad horse; but, his last 3 races leave you scratching your head. Went off at 2-5 in the Tampa Bay Derby and got beat. Went off as the 9-5 favorite in the Blue Grass Stakes and finished 4th beaten 21 lenghts. That's why he got sent off at 30-1 in the Ky. Derby and, wouldn't you know it, he runs his best race that day and gets the distant 2nd to Barbaro. So, which horse shows up tomorrow? 3-1 morning line odds are not inviting and I'm expecting regression and looking elsewhere. That being said, if the crowd decides to make Sunriver the favorite and Bluegrass Cat goes off at 5-1 or higher--may be worth a few dollars "saver" bet, just in case.
10.
Double Galore- Was life and death to break his maiden on May 19th at Hollywood Park. What are these people thinking? A good "head to head" bet with Platinum Couple as to who will be last.
11.
Steppenwolfer- A one-run stone closer who has been in the money 8 out of his 9 races; so, hard to ignore. But, The Belmont is rarely won by a horse that closes from far back unless there is a lot of speed in the race and that speed doesn't hold up. That won't be the case tomorrow. The lack of speed means horses in the top 6 will be the ones that are around at the finish. For Steppenwolfer to have a chance, he will have to be closer to the pace which is not his natural style. Because he is a known name, he can likely be 7-2 or 4-1. If you like closers, I think Jazil is the better value.
12.
Sacred Light- I had been high on this horse early in the season. He had a chance to show what he was all about in the Santa Anita Derby; but, as the gates opened, he went down to his knees (perhaps to pray) and that compromised any chance he had. He finished last beaten 19 lenghths. That race is a throw-out. Yet, instead of running in a stake race, he was placed in a $54,000 allowance race at Churchill Downs where he was life and death to close for 2nd, beaten by the immortal Nolan's Cat. The outside post and the horse's running style don't fit this race. Afraid I'll pass.
Comments: This will be a jockey's race. Pace will make this race. If High Finance can set soft fractions, he may go all the way. If High Finance can't rate and the 1/2 mile goes swiftly, look for Sunriver, Deputy Glitters, Oh So Awesome, Jazil and Bluegrass Cat to be prominent.
Bets:$2 Exacta: #2 Sunriver & #5 High Finance OVER #2 Sunriver, #5 High Finance, #6 Oh So Awesome, #7 Deputy Glitters, #8 Jazil and #9 Bluegrass Cat ($20)$1 Trifecta: #5 High Finance OVER #2 Sunriver, #7 Deputy Glitters, #8 Jazil OVER #7 Deputy Glitters, #6 Oh So Awesome #8 Jazil ($9)$1 Trifecta: #2 Sunriver OVER #5 High Finance, #7 Deputy Glitters, #8 Jazil OVER #7 Deputy Glitters, #6 Oh So Awesome, #8 Jazil ($9)$5 WPS- #2 Sunriver ($15)$10 WPS- #5 High Finance ($30)Total Bets- $84---If I did the math right.NOTE: IF THE TRACK COMES UP MUDDY OR SLOPPY, REPLACE DEPUTY GLITTERS WITH HEMINGWAY'S KEY.Good luck!Racetrack Lenny
