Racetrack Lenny

Finally Cash In--On A Show Bet!- Belmont Post-Mortem

You handicap for a fast track or for a sloppy track, you never, ever think that you'd have to handicap for a windy track. That's what happened yesterday. Yes, the week long rain was over. In its wake came blue skies, unusually cool weather and a west wind that was gusting up to 40 mph. Since the Belmont oval is east-west, that meant horses going down the backstrecth were going into a strong headwind and coming down the stretch, they got a strong tailwind.

Speed was not holding up at Belmont yesterday because those going into the wind in quick fractions were tiring at the end making it heaven for closers. However, since the Belmont was the 11th race on the card and since each jockey had raced at least 1 race during the day, the jockeys knew what they would encounter on the backstetch and would act accordingly. The race would go one of 2 ways: Someone would set a slow pace and last to the end or someone would set a blistering pace and closers would hold sway. Closers held sway. Congratulations to Jazil on a terrific race and to 18 year old jockey Fernando Jara who rode a masterful race with his 1 run closer.

I expected High Finance to make the lead. I also expected Eibar Coa would slow things down. I figured an opening quarter of about 25 seconds and a half in 50 seconds or a bit slower. Instead, jockey Garrett Gomez uncharacteristically gunned Bob & John to the front. He was joined by Deputy Glitters in the middle of the track and the longest shot on the board, Double Galore, joined them on the outside. High Finance made a bee line to the rail and was sitting 4th, which I thought was exactly where I wanted him. Then came the kiss of death, the quarter time was 23 seconds flat. I began kicking myself for not having put a substantial bet on Jazil. Even though he was 12th at the quarter and 20 lengths from the front, the race was setting up nicely for him.

The top 3 (Bob & John, Deputy Glitters, Double Galore) continued their pressured pace and Deputy Glitters drifted out a bit into the 2 path. For reasons unknown, jockey Eibar Coa gunned High Finance through the opening at the rail to now be a clear 2nd. The half mile went in 47-1/5 seconds. At that point, I knew my bets were toast. In today's news, I heard that Bob Baffert instructed Garrett Gomez to go for the lead with Bob & John and try to steal the race. However, you steal a race when you put the field to sleep through soft fractions; you don't do it by sprinting for a mile and a half. Somebody, please buy a stop watch for Garrett, he needs one embedded in his head.

Once mid-way up the backstretch, Bluegrass Cat joined the fray and Steppenwolfer was much closer than usual. Jazil was still last a good 20 or so lenghts back. Then Jara gave Jazil a love tap and off to the races went Jazil. 3/4 of a mile in 1:12- a sizzling pace and Jazil was now weaving his way through traffic picking off horses one by one. By the middle of the far turn, Bluegrass Cat had taken the lead. The early leaders had been cooked in their speed duel and now it was the stalkers and closers turn to do some running. The contest went to Jazil who went by Bluegrass Cat at the top of the stretch and was never seriously threatened thereafter. Sunriver began his close along the rail but could not get the place from Bluegrass Cat. It was Sunriver finishing 3rd that allowed me to cash my first ticket of this year's triple crown--a $6.10 show price. I guess it's better than a sharp stick in the eye.

The fast fractions and the strong headwind set the race up in picture perfect form for a closer and Jazil was the closer that I really liked. However, I could have handicapped that race a million times and I would never have thought that they would go a half mile in 47 seconds. That was sheer stupidity on the part of the front runner's owners/trainers and jockeys.

Well, we hope for better luck next year. It's been a bizarre triple crown series this year. A dominating Derby win for Barbaro; Barbaro then breaks down in the Preakness and Bernardini turns in a huge performance to win big--which was overshadowed by Barbaro's injury; and then Bernardini says "no, thank you" to the Belmont. Let's hope for some consistency next year.

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 5:32 PM