Racetrack Lenny

The 2015 Crop

Will a Triple Crown winner emerge from this year's crop of three-year olds?  I think it highly doubtful.

In 45 years of following the ponies, I can't remember when I have stumbled upon such an undistinguished crop of three year olds than 2015.  Can you name a single standout that has dominated the news the way Secretariat did in 1973 or Seattle Slew in 1975 or even California Chrome last year?  Don't worry, neither can I.  And therein lies the rub.  No one has run so consistently well against top ranked competition that he or she has caught the imagination of the racing public.  It does not bode well for the 47th year without a Triple Crown winner.

Dortmund is currently ranked #1 in points earned (171).  Only the top 20 horses in points earned get into the Kentucky Derby.  The Derby continues to be the most dishonest of horse races because you not only have to show stamina; you have to pray for a good post position and then you have to hope you're not caught in the cavalry charge and get bumped like a pinball during the race.  It is not an honest horse race.  It should be limited to 12 horses, tops.  Dortmund has been facing so-so competition being the odds-on favorite and winning all his races.  He's been facing fields of 5 or 6 horses.  Facing 20 will be a whole new world for Dortmund.  His running style is being in front.  The Derby has the quickest first quarter of the 3 Triple Crown races which is why it is so rare to see a "gate to wire" score.  The race goes not to the fastest horse; but, to the horse that can sit the trip.  It's the ultimate trip race.

Carpe Diem won the Kentucky Blue Grass in good fashion.  He proved he does not need the lead to pounce and win by open lengths.  He faced a fairly honest field and still demolished them at 3/5, has the look of a good contender.  Can he sit the trip?

Frosted was good early on, then began regressing to finish 4th in the Florida Derby causing his connections to become very concerned.  He was entered in the Wood Memorial where favored El Kabeir was a suspect favorite and Frosted rebounded strongly to take the Wood in good order over 21-1 Tencendur who ran the race of his life to be a solid 2nd some 6 lengths ahead of El Kabeir.

Mubtaahij is in the picture solely off his 100 points gained in winning the UAE Derby overseas.  Sheikh Mohammed made sure his UAE Derby would be a 100 point race just to get someone over here.  The horse is vastly overrated.

Materiality is real good when he's good and really bad when he's not so good.  He's won some impressive races; but, managed to throw a few clunkers in for good measure.  Which Materiality shows up on May 2nd?

El Kabeir took the New York route to the Derby and his record over his last 3 races doesn't exactly get the blood racing.  He led until 100 yards out in the Withers when Far From Over went by to win at a mile.  His next start in the mile and a sixteenth Gotham was an improved performance being life and death to prevail by a nose after shaking off 3 legitimate contenders.  Yesterday in the Wood Memorial, a change in tactics.  40 MPH wind gusts were blowing down the backstretch and any speed horse would have been cooked trying to go fast into that headwind.  So, El Kabeir took back and trailed the field gambling he'd come on at the end.  Problem was, the front end was reasonable going 24-1/5 for the opening quarter and 49 flat for the half.  As they entered the stretch, long shot Tencendur had the lead with Frosted coming hard on the outside.  El Kabeir put in a belated run finishing 3rd six lengths behind Tencendur.  The lustre is off.

That's it for the top contenders, more on the others later.

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 8:29 PM