Racetrack Lenny

Derby Day

Well, we're just under 48 hours to Derby post time. The weather will be a factor as there is a 50% chance of showers on Friday and a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms on Derby day. We may not get a fast track and I have factored that into my "analysis".



As I say every year, the Derby is truly THE trip race of each year. In too big a field, the best horse doesn't necessarily win; the victory usually goes to the luckiest horse. If the field were limited to 12, we'd have an honest horse race; but, I don't think I'll ever see that.



Another pet peeve is not coupling horses with the same owner & trainer. West Side Bernie and Atomic Rain should run as an entry as should Regal Ransom and Desert Party. It's not fair to the betting public to have them try to figure out which horse is going to be sent. And now, my thoughts:



1. West Side Bernie- Last win came in the Ky. Cup Juvenile, a Grade 3 race for 2 year olds run last September over the synthetic track. Since then, has run against some of today's entries. West Side Bernie's stablemate Atomic Rain will likely set a lively pace to set things up for this closer. However, this horse's speed figures suggest there would have to be a complete collapse on the front-end for West Side Bernie to have a chance. Don't be fooled by the 2nd to I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial. Despite a pedestrian pace in a field of mediocrities (except for I Want Revenge), West Side Bernie couldn't close the sale. Finally, a closer in post position 1 is the kiss of death.



2. Musket Man- his last 3 races have been good. He scored his highest speed rating in his last race, the Illinois Derby which he won. Therein is the problem. The victory was such a dramatic improvement that this horse has "bounce" written all over him. Now, if the Illinois Derby wasn't a fluke, Musket Man looms an upset possibility.



3. Mr. Hot Stuff- Never raced on dirt with his only victory being a maiden win just 3 races ago. His breeding screams turf. Pass.



4. Advice- Stone closer who needs a fast pace to be able to close into. His lone dirt start was dismal. His victory in the Lexington was over a synthetic track and it was visually impressive as he closed from dead last in a field of 11 to win by a length. However, when you look at the fractions for that race, the front end totally collapsed and Advice was able to take advantage. He has yet to break 100 in his speed ratings and many in this field have their 100 or better. Can't see him sneaking into the top 4.



5. Hold Me Back- Lone dirt try at Aqueduct saw him defeated by 14 lenghts. Hold Me Back is a different animal on synthetic tracks. His breeding suggests a good turf horse. I don't think this horse will take kindly to dirt.



6. Freisan Fire- Last 3 races have been impressive. He seems to do just what he needs to do in order to win. He has raced exclusively on dirt and handled a sloppy track well. His A.P. Indy breeding suggests distance won't be a problem. He has had a 7 week layoff which is a bit of a concern; but, a 57 seconds 5 furlong work this past Monday was sensational. Is he ready to fire? or was the work too fast? Freisan Fire has the look of a winner. The pick.



7. Papa Clem- Has done his best with Rafael Bejarano who gets the mount. Set the pace in the Louisiana Derby (his only try on a sloppy track at a mile and a sixteenth) and tired in the stretch to get 2nd. He followed that up with a nice score in the Arkansas Derby. He got a great speed figure that day. However, when you look at his races, he follows a good speed rating with a mediocre one and that in & out form concerns me. But, I still think Papa Clem has the look of a live longshot and may be worth a stab at a price.



8. Mine That Bird- Looked terrific at Woodbine on the synthetic track. When switched to dirt, mediocre results. High speed rating of 92 has him in some mighty deep water. For bird lovers only.



9. Join In The Dance- We certainly won't be joining him in a victory dance because this "distance challenged" horse just cannot get a mile and a quarter. A victory would pay a boxcar price. Good chance for last place.



10. Regal Ransom- One of 2 Godolphin Stable entries, the other being Desert Party. Both should have been coupled. Caught a favorable pace in his last race in Dubai. 2 good workouts at Churchill Downs. How will the trip affect him? Traditionally, overseas speed figures are higher than those assigned in the U.S. Don't see him getting a relaxed pace. Pass.



11. Chocolate Candy- Seems to be peaking at the right time with him knocking on the door of a triple speed figure. That being said, he has exclusively raced on synthetic tracks and it is a crap shoot if he'll take to dirt in a racing situation. His last 3 starts were in fields of 7,6 and 7 respectively and 20 is a whole new ballgame. Even with veteran jockey Mike Smith getting the mount, seems up against it.



12. General Quarters- Maybe it's been the sentimental hype about 75 year old trainer Tom McCarthy; but, I like this horse's chances. I consider him a live longshot. He does have a triple digit speed figure and his racing style is that of a grinder. He's always mid-pack in large-ish fields and this is a horse that could pick up the pieces with luck.



13. I Want Revenge- Since switching to dirt, this animal has been a totally different horse. I witnessed him in the Gotham stakes where he drew away by 8 lenghts with ease under young 19 year-old Joe Talamo. I witnessed the Wood Memorial where I Want Revenge literally walked out of the starting gate, spotting the field at least half a dozen lenghts. Talamo did not panic and raced at the back of the pack. At the far turn, he made contact with the field and began weaving his way through. In mid-stretch, Talamo tried to get through a seam and got through at the last minute to post a 1-1/2 length win. It was impressive. It will do both horse and jockey well that they faced and overcame adversity. I wish the odds were more favorable; but, you leave this horse out of your bets at your own peril. Based on his current form, he will be in the top 3.



14. Atomic Rain- Will run like an atomic bomb. His name is speed and he will try to go as far as he can to set it up for his stablemate West Side Bernie (see #1). Another candidate to finish last.



15. Dunkirk- 3 lifetime starts and 4-1 odds make this horse a bad betting proposition. Yes, he's shown talent, finishing 2nd to Quality Road who withdrew from the Derby due to injury. But, even the great Curlin finished 3rd in the Derby. If Dunkirk somehow floats up to 10-1 or so, then you might want to put a few bucks on him. Demand value.



16. Pioneer of the Nile- 4 straight victories over synthetic tracks. Does just enough to win and has posted excellent speed ratings. His sire, Empire Maker, suggests this horse will get the distance and take to the mud. Concerns: Don't think he'll handle dirt well, has been running in small fields, outside post position. Seems nuts to toss out a horse with such a good record; but, I'm tossing him out.



17. Summer Bird- His owner and trainer will be able to say one day "we had a horse in the Derby", that's all.



18. Nowhere to Hide- His lone win was breaking his maiden, has been awful since. This horse may hide, but, not with my money.



19. Desert Party- the other half of the Godolphin entry which is running uncoupled from Regal Ransom. Won the Sandford at Saratoga as a 2 year old on a muddy track as the 4/5 favorite. Hugged the rail and romped home by 4 lenghts to post a 100 speed figure. Followed that up a month later with a 6th place finish in the Hopeful, beaten by 10 lenghts. Puzzling. Shipped off to Dubai where he has a decent record. His breeding by Street Cry and Tabasco Cat suggest speed and stamina. Workouts have been impressive and I believe this is the half of the Godolphin entry that is truly going to be sent. Interesting that owner/trainer left regular rider, Frankie Dettori, behind and went with Ramon Dominguez. May press a hard pace...and may last. Can't ignore him at 15-1.



20. Flying Private- As recently as 4 races ago, this horse was running in claiming races. Got a suck-up 2nd on the synthetic track in the Lanes End, which got him just enough earnings to back his way into this race. For D. Wayne Lukas fans only. A win would prompt the headline "Mule Wins Kentucky Derby".

My bets:

$10 WPS- #6 -Freisan Fire

$5 WPS- #13- I Want Revenge

$2 WPS- #12- General Quarters & #19- Desert Party

$2 Win- #7- Papa Clem

$2 Exacta Part Wheel: #6- Freisan Fire & #13- I Want Revenge over #6- Freisan Fire, #7- Papa Clem, #12- General Quarters, #13- I Want Revenge, #19- Desert Party

$1 Triple Part Wheel: #6,#13 with #6,#7, #12, #13, #19 with #6, #13

$1 Superfecta Part Wheel: #6, #13 with #6,#7,#12, #13, #19 with #6, #13 with #2, #6, #7, #12, #13, #19

Good Luck! May the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 7:43 PM