Saturday, February 14, 2009

Let The 2009 Games Begin

The prep race season has begun in anxious anticipation of the 2009 Derby on May 2nd. Gulfstream Park has had the Grade 3- Holy Bull Stakes at a mile and an eighth and the Grade 2-Hutcheson Stakes at 7 furlongs. The Fair Grounds has had its Grade 3- Risen Star Stakes at a mile and a sixteenth and Aqueduct has had its ungraded Whirlaway Stakes at a mile and a sixteenth. Let's take them in order.

1/30/09- The Hutcheson drew a small but competitive field of 6 with Hello Broadway being sent off as the 2/1 favorite. Under Edgar Prado, Hello Broadway cut fractions of 23-3/5 and 46 flat before being overtaken in the stretch by Capt. Candyman Can the 5/2 second choice under Julian Leparoux. Capt. Candyman Can looked good drawing away to win by a lenght and a half giving evidence that he wanted more than 7 furlongs. It was a useful race. A disappointment was New York's own Break Water Edison sent off at 5/2 under Alan Garcia. While settling in mid-pack throughout the race, when it came time to run, Edison shined like a 10 watt light bulb, finishing last beaten better than 10 lenghts.

1/31/09- The Holy Bull saw the much anticipated Danger To Society sent off at 9/5 under Robby Albarado. Danger To Society posed no danger to the 6 horses that finished ahead of him in a field of 10. He just never fired. 5/2 second choice West Side Bernie under Elvis Trujillo closed well to be 3rd; however, with a half in nearly 48 seconds, there wasn't a hot enough pace to run into. I'm still not sold on him; but, will watch his next start. The also oft mentioned Beethoven under Calvin Borel raced 3rd most of the way and just flattened out in the strecth to finish a non threatening 4th at 5/1 odds. Given the sluggish pace and the horse being a stalker, this was a disappointing result and it may have been due to his "needing a race". Let's see how he does in his next start and hope he doesn't draw post position 10 again. Ooops, forgot to mention the top two: Saratoga Sinner won by 3 parts of a length at 12/1 while Bear's Rocket got 2nd at 33/1. I suspect the owners of these longshots have Derby fever already.

2/7/09- The Whirlaway Stakes run over the inner winter track at beautiful Aqueduct saw 2/5 favorite Haynesfield romp to win by over 6 lenghts in front every step of the way under Ramon Dominguez. 7/2 second choice Peace Town (out of Peace Rules) prompted the pace but quickly wilted in the lane to finish 5th in a field of 6. An impressive win by Haynesfield against a lackluster field. We'll wait to see how he does against real competition.

2/7/09- The Risen Star was the race where we may have seen a potential Derby winner. A large field of 13 competitive horses proved to be excellent experience for the cavalry charge in May. Second choice Friesan Fire under Gabriel Saez stalked the pace 4th before swinging to the outside at the top of the stretch to prevail by 2 widening lengths at a good clip. 2/1 favorite Giant Oak under Edgar Prado was full of run but had nowhere to go after an awful trip. He was steadied twice, got shuffled back to 11th and managed to finish 5th after the rail opened up way too late. Giant Oak is eligible to improve. New York's Flying Pegasus was dismissed at 10/1 and took an overland journey to finish a strong 2nd. For those of you who relish longshots, Code of Honour was looking to pull off a colossal upset at 243/1--yes, two hundred forty three to 1. He held 2nd until the top of the stretch when he plummeted to last after prompting a fast pace.

The Derby Future Wager Pool 1 is now open and many of the horses named above are on the list. Beethoven: 15/1. Capt. Candyman Can: 10/1. Flying Pegasus: 30/1. Freisan Fire: 12/1. Giant Oak: 15/1. Haynesfield: 50/1. Hello Broadway: 50/1. West Side Bernie: 50/1. The current favorite at 5/2 is "all other 3 year olds". Considering that a "field" horse has won the Derby 4 out of the last 10 years, the "field" bet seems safe enough; but, I'm putting some money on Freisan Fire, Giant Oak & West Side Bernie.

Good luck, may the horse be with you!

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