Racetrack Lenny

Mint Julep Soup

If the Louisville weather forecast holds up, there will be a lot of slop on the track. Heavy showers and thunderstorms will add a new wrinkle to the mix. Most of the horses running tomorrow haven't raced on an "off" track. Well, you can't control the weather but you can control your bets.

I have keyed my interest amongst 5 horses: #9-Pyro; #8-Visionaire, #19-Gayego; #2 Tale of Ekati and #16-Denis of Cork. I have tossed out two of the more favored horses: #5-Eight Belles and the favorite #20-Big Brown. First, the toss outs:

1. Eight Belles: This filly is good; but, I don't think she's good enough to beat the boys in a cavalry charge. Eight Belles has had some sensational races against other fillies; however, when you look at the Racing Form, you'll see that she has run many of her opening quarter miles in 24 seconds or slower. That will not happen tomorrow. There is speed in the race and I wouldn't be surprised to see an opening quarter in 22-4/5ths or 23-1/5th seconds. If that happens, Eight Belles will be toast.

2. Big Brown: I particularly dislike trainers who boast all week of how their horse will "obliterate" the field. Richard Dutrow is already comparing his horse to Secretariat. Puhleeze. Yes, Big Brown has two sensational speed figures; however, let's remember the Derby will be only his 4th start (shades of Curlin last year). He broke his maiden last September, won an allowance race in March and then won the Florida Derby on March 28th. With such a light campaign and the fact that he has to come out of post position 20 is a very tall order. One thing in his favor, though, is he is sired by Danzig who loved the mud. In any case, I will try to beat Big Brown.

The Contenders:

1. Pyro: The early favorite to win it all lost favor when he finished a badly beaten 10th in the Blue Grass Stakes. However, that race was run on the polytrack (synthetic surface) at Keeneland and when you watch a replay of that race, you'll see that the horse never handled the surface. Why trainer Steve Asmussen decided to run Pyro in this race made me scratch my head. It didn't make sense. So, I am throwing that race out. Prior to the Blue Grass, Pyro had been in the money in EVERY race he ran. He's a strong closer and the Derby is loaded with speed. While I wish the trainer had selected a "name" jockey, Shaun Bridgmohan seems to truly fit this horse to a T and Pyro is my pick to win it all.

2. Gayego: Had raced on the West Coast on the polytrack and if it weren't for his impressive win in the Arkansas Derby, run on dirt, I may have tossed him out. However, the Arkansas Derby was an impressive win and he earned a 103 speed figure in the process. Gayego won stalking the pace which will come in handy tomorrow. So, if speed holds up tomorrow, Gayego is the speed horse you need to include in your betting.

3. Visionaire: This is a very live longshot. His speed figures are not impressive; but, this closer finds a way to get into the money in all but his last race. His last race was the Blue Grass and Visionaire showed a similar dislike of the polytrack as shown by Pyro. Visionaire's last race is a throw-out. The other thing I like about Visionaire is his win in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 8th. That race was run on a very rainy day with the track being a sea of mud. Visionaire relentlessly closed along the rail to get up and win by a nose over Texas Wildcatter. His speed figure in the mud was a 98; his best speed figure yet. Jockey Jose Lezcano really fits this horse well and I believe you'll see a big effort from Visionaire tomorrow.

4. Tale of Ekati: Beat War Pass in the Wood Memorial. Yes, they say it was the slowest win time for the Wood since 1952; however, the track was drying out from heavy rains earlier in the day and although the track was listed as "good", it was a heavy, tiring track and Tale of Ekati was all out to get by an exhausted War Pass. A similar effort tomorrow puts him in the thick of it.

5. Denis of Cork: Lightly raced colt who has raced and won at Churchill Downs. Has run and won in the slop. Picks up Calvin Borel as his jockey--the jockey who won last year's Derby aboard Street Sense. Borel is the leading rider at Churchill Downs and he can save ground at the rail and close in the stretch.

The Bets:

$5 WPS: #9 Pyro
$2 WPS: #8 Visionaire & #16 Denis of Cork

$2 Exacta: 8, 9, 16 with 2,8,9,16,19

$1 Trifecta Box: 2,8,9,16

$1 Superfecta: 8,9,16 with 8,9,16 with 2,19 with 2,19

Good Luck, may the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 7:04 PM