Racetrack Lenny

"Don't Give Up Your Day Job" Preakness

Of all the Triple Crown races, the Preakness is the one race that has been won by the most closers. Since Pimlico plays well to speed, the opening fractions tend to be fast and speed duels develop allowing for a "come from behind" type to take it all. Gate Dancer and Deputed Testamony come to mind.

Tomorrow's Preakness field is one of the sorriest fields I've ever seen in this race. Many of the horses entered are still eligible for "allowance non-winners of 1 race lifetime" conditions. But, bet we must or it wouldn't be fun.

Big Brown is likely to go off as one of the shortest-priced favorites to run this race. I'm expecting Big Brown will go off at 1/5 odds. Do you really want to bet $2 to get a $2.40 payoff? The problem is Big Brown towers over this field--on paper, at least. I just don't see anyone outright beating him. Big Brown is a very versatile horse. He can win being on the lead. He can win stalking the pace and he can win closing from behind. He is a legitimate contender for the Triple Crown after a 30 year drought. So, we'll bet this race as a triple play to try and get better than 1/5.

The race does get more interesting when you're handicapping for 2nd and 3rd place. Here's my play.

In the 2nd spot, I will use #6-Racecar Rhapsody; #8-Kentucky Bear and #12-Gayego.

I like Racecar Rhapsody because he is a legitimate one-run closer who has run well on dirt and has Beyer speed figures in the mid-90's (as a comparison, Big Brown's speed figures are between 106 and 109--get the picture?). If a suicidal pace develops, Racecar Rhapsody can close from far back to perhaps get a suck-up 2nd. Kentucky Bear is the "wise guy" horse. He comes in after only 3 lifetime starts and each race is an improvement. He tends to hang mid-pack and then make a move turning for home. His last 4 workouts have been sensational; so, I'm expecting a big effort--unless his workouts have already exhausted his energy. Gayego's run in the Ky. Derby was too bad to be true. When you view an isolated replay of the race, Gayego got a nightmare trip and finished 17th. However, owner & trainer looked over this horse with a fine tooth comb and couldn't come up with anything wrong. Gayego was eagerly eating the very next day and all signs show that he's ready. If he runs to what he did in the Arkansas Derby on April 12th--where he earned a speed figure of 103, he could make Big Brown work up a sweat to win.

Now for the 3rd spot: I'll put the 6, 8 and 12 in third; but, I'll also include #1- Macho Again; #2- Tres Borrachos and #13- Hey Byrn. Macho Again runs his best late and his last race got him his best lifetime speed figure. However, that was in a 7-1/2 furlong sprint and the flow of this race will be different. That being said, he has the rail and can save ground all the way into the stretch and then close to nail 3rd. Tres Borrachos (Spanish for "Three Drunks") is a horse on the improve showing speed figures of 71, 90 and 95. In the Arkansas Derby he set the pace, weakened to 4th in the stretch and then found another gear to regain the show spot. He did that at 37-1. So, expect him to be on or near the front and maybe he hangs on for 3rd. Finally, Hey Byrn has had some good races in allowance company getting speed figures of 90 and 97. His last effort was a win in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. While he beat a very weak field, he did it by stalking the pace and then edging away late. I like the fact that his trainer has put a one mile workout into him preparing him for the 1-3/16th mile Preakness.

The Bet:

$2 Trifecta: 7 with 6,8,12 with 1,2,6,8,12,13. Total bet $30.

May the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 10:19 PM