Derby Post-Mortem
I was going to do a humorous and cynical entry today; but, given the tragic ending of Eight Belle's life, I will honor her by keeping all humor out of this. My thoughts and prayers are with the connections of the wonderful filly who ran her heart out yesterday and did much better than I ever could have imagined.Those that followed my advice yesterday at least salvaged an $11.60 show price on Denis of Cork who closed from 20th and last at the top of the stretch to be a rail-skimming 3rd at the end. At least it wasn't a total monetary loss for us.
Big Brown appears to be the real deal. After being so lightly raced and running such a grueling race in the Florida Derby AND drawing post position 20 for yesterday's Derby, I just didn't think Big Brown could do it. Well, he did it and with complete authority. If he stays healthy over the next 5 weeks, we may be looking at a Triple Crown winner. It's been 30 years since Affirmed; so, let's hope Big Brown can pull off the hat trick. Let's also congratulate jockey Kent Desormeaux who rode a masterful race yesterday. He kept Big Brown in the 5 path totally in the clear and had a snug hold on him to keep him relaxed. When Desormeaux gave Big Brown the signal, he took off--much like Street Sense last year. He was much the best.
Runner-up Eight Belles ran one hell of a race. She was in the top 5 all the way around the track running through some very demanding fractions and she did not wilt in the stretch. She fought valiantly on to hold the place spot safely. I didn't think she could do it; but, she did. As with any sport, there is always the potential for injury and yesterday's Derby was no different. I watched the race at Belmont Park and did not know what had happened to the brilliant filly until I got home and wanted to get the race replay on the internet. I pulled up nbc sports and the headline was "Eight Belles Put Down". I couldn't believe what I was reading. I was literally in tears. I've heard of bizarre injuries (Barbaro comes to mind); but, I've never heard of any horse breaking both front ankles. It's truly freakish. I guess we'll never know how that happened. I hope the trainer, owner and jockey don't blame themselves for this tragic ending. They are all in my prayers.
Ok, now I'll comment on my picks:
1. Pyro raced 18th most of the way and closed belatedly to get 8th place. Pyro was soundly bumped twice and was steadied getting into the far turn. At the top of the stretch, jockey Shaun Bridgmohan fanned 4 wide into the stretch; but, Pyro did not have a second gear and he just proceeded to pass tiring horses. Yes, Pyro did not get a good trip; but, now the Blue Grass debacle of 3 weeks ago doesn't seem as much of a fluke as it did. I'm sure owner and trainer will have Pyro totally looked over to see if there is a breathing problem or some other physical reason for this horse's sudden reversal of good form.
2. Visionaire- If any horse got a horrible trip, it was Visionaire. He stumbled leaving the gate and nearly unseated jockey Jose Lezcano. Lezcano was lucky to not have been thrown to the ground. As Visionaire was trying to get to mid-pack coming by the stands the first time, he was bumped twice and had to steady going into the first turn in very tight quarters. As he was making a move down the backstretch, Big Truck started making a move and Visionaire had to take up to avoid colliding with Big Truck. Visionaire once again began making a move on the far turn, got caught in traffic and had to steady for a 3rd time. At the head of the stretch, Lezcano fanned Visionaire 6 wide and made a very belated rally in the stretch to finish 12th. Visionaire just had nothing left with all his energy spent. Horses are not cars where you can accelerate and brake at will. My guess is Visionaire will be negatively affected by this race.
3. Denis of Cork- As usual, Denis of Cork walked out of the gate immediately being 20th and last. At the half mile pole, he was 25 lenghts off the lead. At the head of the stretch he had established contact with the field but was still last 20 lenghts off the lead and then jockey Calvin Borel angled to the rail and Denis of Cork closed powerfully to be third. The connections of Denis of Cork will continue to work on this horse's penchant for sleepwalking during the early stages of a race. However, this horse is a strong closer and a little more conditioning makes him a threat in both the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes.
4. Gayego- Perhaps the most disappointing performance of all. While I had been ready to dismiss Gayego in my handicapping because he had run only on synthetic surfaces, I was drawn to him when he won the Arkansas Derby in impressive style--on the dirt. So, I knew dirt would not be a problem. However, it looks like the size of the field, the noise and all the hoopla surrounding the race took its toll. Gayego was difficult to load into the gate and he was lathered up--never a good sign. It a sign of a horse whose anxiety level is high and a horse in this state expends a lot of energy. Gayego wasn't his usual self leaving the gate. He usually gets a speedy beginning but he came out sluggishly and jockey Mike Smith proceeded to get him into contention bringing him up to 7th as they entered the first turn. Gayego tried to bolt towards the fence coming out of the clubhouse turn and onto the backstretch and Mike Smith had to use his whip lightly to keep Gayego's mind on the race. As they were midway into the far turn, Gayego's early waste of energy took its toll as Gayego steadily faded to finish a weary 17th. I wouldn't dismiss him in the Preakness since the Preakness typically has 12 or fewer horses in it; but, if I were the trainer, I would try blinkers, a hood and ear plugs--much as was done for Gate Dancer many years ago.
5. Tale of Ekati- This horse is a closer and he was much closer to the pace than usual. Jockey Eibar Coa kept Tale of Ekati in a stalking mode during the early stages of the race running 7th most of the way before he began his bid at the top of the stretch. Unfortunately, Coa encountered all sorts of traffic problems; but, he did manage to close and get 4th. For those who used Tale of Ekati in their superfecta wagers, getting 39-1 odds on him was quite generous. Look for this horse in the remaining two Triple Crown events.
As I do each year, I will once again urge Churchill Downs to change the rules and allow only the top 12 horses in earnings a berth in the Derby. A 12 horse field produces much more consistency in terms of a horse running his/her best race. When you have a field of 20, there is much too much dependant upon luck than skill. Clearly, many horses capable of better were compromised by bad luck yesterday. It's time to end the cavalry charge nature of this race once and for all.
Again, my sympathy to the connections of Eight Belles on the tragic loss of their horse.
Racetrack Lenny
racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 12:58 PM
1 Comments:
As you know, we did have the exacta (in fact, we would have had the triple if we'd bet it). We were still celebrating our win when we saw that Eight Belles was down. It immediately put the race in perspective.
I'm thinking of just wheeling Big Brown in the Preakness exacta and praying that a long shot comes in second!
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