The Belmont Stakes has become one of the most unpredictable races in the Triple Crown trio. Horses that have the breeding to go the distance fail; while others who appear to be "distance challenged" can win such as in Saturday's Belmont when Palace Malice staggered home in 2:30-4/5ths to win at 13-1. Don't worry Secretariat, your record will forever be safe.
I boxed 4 horses in my exacta: Overanalyze, Orb, Incognito and Revolutionary. I threw out Frac Daddy, Giant Finish, Midnight Taboo, Vyjack and Unlimited Budget as horses who just could not get the distance. I threw out Palace Malice given his incredibly rapid pace in the Ky. Derby and the fact that his only win came last year at 6-1/2 furlongs at Saratoga. I felt he was a sprinter who could never get a mile and a half. As soon as the track was upgraded from muddy to good, then to fast, I threw out Freedom Child as I saw him as a sloppy track freak who needed slop to help him win. His fast track form was dismal. I threw out Oxbow because he needs to be on or right off the lead and I didn't think he would get away with the theft he pulled off in the Preakness. I was very impressed that he ran through swift fractions and still finished second.
I thought Overanalyze, as an "in & outer" was now due for a win and his breeding suggested distance. Upon further review after the race, I would have been given pause to see just one 4 furlong workout when you're about to race a mile and a half. Overanalyze didn't lift a hoof. Orb was far, far back and put in a good, strong run to finish a close up third. He just ran out of steam in the last 100 yards suggesting that a mile and a half was just a wee bit too far for him. There certainly was a fast pace to close into; unfortunately, the pace setters weren't backing up. I used Incognito because of the very favorable jockey change from Mike Luzzi to Irad Ortiz, Jr. I discounted his Peter Pan Stakes performance to the fact that this horse does not take to the mud. Of all the new faces, I thought he could hit the board and he did round out the superfecta finishing 4th. Revolutionary was the true disappointment of the day. His breeding suggested the distance wouldn't be a problem. His record was one of a strong closer who had always been in the money. Revolutionary made a strong middle move on the far turn; but, couldn't sustain his bid and hung in the stretch to finish a non-threatening 5th.
The early stages of the race played out exactly as I had thought. Frac Daddy would be sent to the front with Oxbow and Freedom Child giving chase and Palace Malice sitting 4th or 5th if Mike Smith would be able to ratchet back his speed. Obviously, the elimination of blinkers had a very beneficial effect. When I saw the opening quarter of 23-1/5 seconds, I was feeling good about my exacta box. Oxbow then took the lead, got passed by Freedom Child between calls and then Oxbow got the front again through a half in a grueling 46-4/5 seconds. At the far turn, Oxbow had a clear lead of about a length; but, the horse now challenging was the distance-limited Palace Malice. I didn't think Palace Malice could sustain his bid and then saw Orb coming from way back along with Revolutionary. At the top of the stretch, my race prediction went out the window. Palace Malice took the lead and was never to look back. Orb flattened out to finish 3rd while my other two ran out, except for Incognito ending up 4th.
Given the Ky. Derby performance, I thought Palace Malice would be a 20-1 proposition or higher. He was an underlay at 13-1. Well, that's why they call it gambling; you turn the page and wait for the next race.
Will I see a Triple Crown before I die? Well, I'm 60 and it better happen soon. However, today's breeding tactics just don't make for a schedule that calls for a mile and a quarter the first Saturday in May, a mile and three sixteenths just two weeks later and a mile and a half 3 weeks after that. Maybe it's time to space the races out a bit and allow 3 or 4 weeks between each. But, if they did that, the Belmont wouldn't be the "Test of the Champion".
May the horse be with you,
Racetrack Lenny
racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 9:04 PM
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