2016 Breeder's Cup Classic
This year's Classic has one of the deepest fields in memory. California Chrome has been a gem of consistency year in and year out and will be the likely favorite at post time. He can be on the lead, stalk or come from behind, a very versatile horse with a good turn of foot.Arrogate is going to draw a lot of attention based on his absolutely sensational Travers victory. He is very lightly raced and was sent off at 11/1 in the Travers. He had post #1 and was gunned to the lead by Mike Smith and never looked back. He set some blistering fractions for the mile and a quarter. A 46-3/5 is a very fast half mile. I thought he'd be cooked by the top of the stretch. Instead, he opened up and ran away from the field and won by over a dozen lengths in 1:59-1/5. That was a new stakes record and track record, previously held by General Assembly in 1979. Can Arrogate duplicate his Travers run? He set a Beyer figure of 129, easily the highest Beyer of any horse in the U.S. this year. Was that real or was it a fluke? If he doesn't draw the rail post, is he able to come from off the pace? Lots of questions. But, no question this is one talented dude.
Effinex has had a good year and beaten quite a few good horses this year. He threw in a clunker in the West Virginia Derby with no excuses; but, rebounded to win his next start handily. He has a good turn of foot and is a fighter, he doesn't give up easily. With Arrogate, California Chrome, Frosted, Keen Ice and Nyquist in the field, Effinex can get overlooked and be an overlay at a possible 15/1 or better. Would be worth a shot.
Frosted has been a tremendous horse this year after battling American Pharoah last year. This year, he has truly matured into a running machine rattling off win after win. His last race, the Woodward, was sub-par. He did not break well, brushing the gate and found himself in mid-pack, a place he was not used to. Somehow he got caught in traffic and had to come wide before he could split horses and duel down the stretch with stablemate Mubtahiij. However, closer Shaman Ghost at 9/1 picked up all the pieces and nailed Mubtahiij at the wire with 2/5 Frosted coming in 3rd. They say great horses overcome trouble and win. I think Frosted just wasn't at his best that day and he's been raced so much this year that it's probably time for a rest.
Gun Runner is a speedy type; but, he has proven a number of times that he cannot get the mile and a quarter. Yet, here he is at the same distance. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Can definitely be a pace factor; but, will see him wilting in the stretch.
Hoppertunity is one of those "tough luck" horses. Runs well; rarely wins, always has an excuse. However, he put everything together to win the $1 Million Jockey Club Gold Cup by a head over Effinex and Protonico with Mubtaahij in 4th. John Velasquez gave Hoppertunity an incredible ride and beat a standout field.
Found and Highland Reel are 2 Irish imports who can get the distance; but, they are both also entered in the turf races, which is their surface. I could bet them on dirt only because they've carried more weight and they've gone longer distances; but, they'd be a definite bet on turf.
Shaman Ghost made his way into the Classic by winning the Woodward, defeating Frosted and Mubtaahij in the process, at odds of 9/1. A nice win for trainer Jimmy Jerkens who inherits his father's claim to fame "the giant killer". A good shot on his best race if a fast pace develops and it sets up nicely for a closer.
Nyquist the Kentucky Derby winner hasn't done much since and shows up here. Will get bet by many in the Breeder's Cup crowd who turn out once per year, will look at the Racing Form see that Nyquist won the Kentucky Derby and run to the windows to overbet him. He'll be an underlay and isn't worth putting a whole lot of money on.
Keen Ice was last year's Travers' upsetter at 18/1 when he beat American Pharoah after Frosted went on a kamikaze mission against American Pharoah allowing Keen Ice to close and beat the Triple Crown winner by a half length. Does his best running late, from far back. Needs a pace meltdown to be in the thick of it.
Check in later next week when the actual field gets clearer.
May the horse be with you,
Racetrack Lenny
racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 8:22 PM
0 bets placed
