The Pretenders
2 major stakes today and several contenders exposed as pretenders. First, the Lexington Stakes, Grade 2 at Keeneland.
Over a very sloppy track, 3/5 favorite, Rockport Harbor, was within 3 lengths of the lead and at the 3/4 pole was making a menacing move. He flattened out when the real running began and finished 6th. Rockport Harbor has been plagued by one minor injury after another and his connections indicated that he would have to run well in this race in order to get to the Derby. If Derby fever does not strike them, it looks like Rockport Harbor will sit the Derby out. I think he will be a good sprinter.
Closer Sort It Out (Brice Blanc up) closed from dead last to get second 3 lenghts behind the winner. So, Sort it Out re-establishes his credentials as a legitimate closer that can get lucky in the Derby.
Todd Pletcher's Coin Silver (Javier Castellano up) won the Lexington at 13-1. He sat 5th most of the way and then began to pick off horses one by one to win going away by 3-1/2. Coin Silver has Conquistador Cielo in his bloodline which makes Coin Silver a superior mudder. I think Coin Silver got lucky with the off track today.
Going Wild's owners indicated he had to have a good race to be Derby bound. Going Wild (Gary Stevens up) actually got the lead at the 3/4 pole and then tired badly in the stretch to finish 5th. I don't think we'll see Going Wild in the Derby.
Next, the Frederico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico, an ungraded stakes race at a mile and an eighth. One thing is for certain: The winner of the Ky.Derby will not come out of the Tesio. The race was negotiated in a mule-like 1:53-1/5, one of the slowest Tesio's ever. Even though the track was listed as fast, there was moisture in the track which made for heavier going; but, that was a slow time. Favorite Byanosejoe, ridden by Jose Santos, was sent off as the 3/5 favorite and finished 3rd with no apparent excuse. He made a menacing move at the head of the strecth and just flattened out. The winner, Malibu Moonshine, won by 3/4 of a lenghth over pacesetter Hello Jerry.
So, as of today it seems Bellamy Road will be the Derby favorite and his odds will be dictated by post position in the Derby. We'll follow remaining workouts for the next week and see who shows up at the Derby Trial next Saturday.
May the horse be with you!
Racetrack Lenny
The Pre-Derby Mixed Bag
2 major stakes races this weekend that served to make muddier waters even murkier.
The Blue Grass Stakes (Grade 1) run at Keeneland yesterday saw trainer Todd Pletcher come into the Derby picture with a nice going-away win for Bandini (John Velasquez up). Bandini stalked the pace being set by Spanish Chestnut and took command at the top of the stretch to win by 6 lengths at 3-1. Bobby Frankel's horse, High Limit (Ramon Dominguez up) ran evenly all the way around to finish 2nd. Closing Argument ran evenly to just neck out Sun King for the show spot at 12-1. The big disappointment in the race was Sun King (Edgar Prado up). Sun King was facing legitimate competition for the first time. You may recall his romp in the Tampa Bay Derby where he got sent off at 1-20 (that's right, a nickle to the dollar). On that day, Sun King faced a glorified cheap allowance field, this was a bit different. Sun King got an uncharacteristic poor ride by Prado who went the overland route- 3 and 4 wide at times and while he did almost get 3rd, he did not show his usual punch in the stretch. D.Wayne Lukas' Consolidator ran near the back of the pack and could not improve his position finishing 5th.
All this being said, Sun King and High Limit really didn't have to show much yesterday. They already qualify on the basis of earnings to get into the Kentucky Derby field; so, why totally tax the horse when an "in the money" or close to "in the money" finish will do? It looks like Sun King, a legitimate closer, is also a trip horse. Without a good trip, he will finish off the board. As for High Limit, I don't think he was really pushed hard. So, don't overlook these 2 in the Derby.
Before you jump on the Bandini bandwagon, consider the time of this 1-1/8th mile race: 1:50. A full 3 seconds slower than Bellamy Road's Wood Memorial. 3 seconds is open lenghts.
As for Spanish Chestnut, he once again proved he is at best a one mile horse. I think he would be a much better sprinter with 6 furlongs being his game. He does not belong in the Derby; but, his owners have a bad case of Derby fever and will likely get the Chestnut in where he will be a pace factor and nothing else.
At Oaklawn Park, the Arkansas Derby (Grade 2) was run and for those who loved Greater Good's big win in his last out at Oaklawn, you were rewarded with a 5th place finish. In his defense, Greater Good had post 10 which is hard to overcome at Oaklawn. Having to hustle a bit just to get good positioning may have tired him a bit. He was 8th most of the way and improved his position to finish a non-threatning 5th.
Afleet Alex (Jeremy Rose up) won the race by 8 widening lenghts showing that his lung infection is all cleared up. His time of 1:48-4/5 was quite decent; but, not quite the Wood Memorial time of 1:47. The connections of Afleet Alex had announced that John Velasquez would ride the horse during the triple crown races; however, Velasquez said yesterday that he will ride Bandini in the Derby. So, Afleet Alex's owners are now faced with keeping the kid, Jeremy Rose, or looking for a "name" rider. That will be a huge factor in Afleet Alex's playability in the Derby.
Todd Pletcher's lightly raced Flower Alley got 2nd after his win in the Lane's End. He just got outrun by a more experienced horse. Nick Zito's 5th string horse, Andromeda's Hero ran evenly at 10-1 to get 3rd.
As of now, it looks like Bellamy Road will be the Derby favorite off his win in the Wood. Sun King may be a 2nd or 3rd choice as will Afleet Alex. It will be a good betting race.
May the horse be with you!
Racetrack Lenny
WOW
Well, we finally got one of those breakthrough performances we were looking for in this pre-Derby season, and it came out of the Wood Memorial at New York's Aqueduct Racetrack. Bellamy Road (5/2) with Javier Castellano broke like a rocket and never looked back. He won by 17-1/2 (yes, seventeen and a half) widening lenghts setting a stakes record-the fastest Wood run in its 81 year history. Bellamy Road also tied the 1-1/8 mile track record set by Riva Ridge in 1973. It was IMPRESSIVE. Bellamy Road looks like the real deal and will likely be the Derby favorite. Survivalist just had enough to edge out a game Scrappy T who tried to keep up with Bellamy Road early and yet hung on for the show spot at 12-1. As for the others, none belong in the Derby. My pick, Naughty New Yorker, looked very common staggering home 5th.
The Bay Shore at 7 furlongs at Aqueduct, saw Lost In The Fog go off at .15 to the dollar and cruise home for the easy victory. His connections have already said they have no Derby plans. They will keep their horse sprinting. He is a good one.
The Illinois Derby at Hawthorne saw Greeley's Galaxy, Kent Desormeaux up, win by 9-1/2 lengths in 1:49-2/5. Before we get too excited, Bellamy Road covered the same distance in 1:47 flat over a super fast track at the Big A. One of my picks, Monarch Lane ran evenly to be 2nd. My pick, Rikman, went off just shy of 6/1 and raced mid-pack all the way around to get 4th. A disappointing performance. The biggest disappointment was Kansas City Boy. Prompting the pace being set by longshot Daddy Joe, K.C. Boy just ran out of gas on the far turn and staggered home last. Goodbye Derby for him.
At Santa Anita, we confirmed that there will not be a girl against the boys in the Derby. Sweet Catomine, off as the even money favorite with Corey Nakatani up, could do no better than 5th with no excuses. Yes, she was soundly bumped on the backstretch; but, as the field turned for home, she was 5th just 3 lengths off the lead and making a menacing move before flattening out. She just got tired. It was a paceless race and for those who bet my longshot special- General John B, you got rewarded when he finished 2nd at 64-1. He paid $40.40 to place and $15.60 to show.
Wilko ran a nice race with Frankie Dettori back on board. He was 8th in the early going and closed to get 3rd, just missing by a 1/2 length. However, keep in mind that the Santa Anita was covered in 1:49 while the Wood got negotiated in 1:47. Big difference.
So, my early Derby favorite- Sun King-has some real competition and may get sent off as the 3rd or 4th choice. Winning the Tampa Bay Derby at 1-20 odds against a cheap allowance field may not have been the tightener he needed. Bellamy Road got a real test and passed it with an A+.
All I could say when I saw Bellamy Road's performance yesterday was WOW. Wow, indeed.
Be well,
Racetrack Lenny
Weak Tea, Indeed
A bunch of prep races for the Derby and it's a weak bunch going to the post tomorrow.
Bay Shore-Grade 3: Run at the Big A (Aqueduct-New York).
In the past considered a good prep, this race has become a showplace for sprinters and it looks like this year is no different. What is different is that Lost In The Fog is in this race and on paper, towers over the field. Posting triple-digit Beyers in his 4 outings, look for him to get sent off at 1-10 or lower. The only other horse that could conceivably threaten if Lost In The Fog falters is Attila's Storm. Attila's Storm broke his maiden in January posting a 97 Beyer. A repeat of that could put him within a few lengths of the favorite. This is a nice race to watch and not bet.
Wood Memorial- Grade 1: the featured race at Aqueduct, the Wood comes up like a cup of weak tea. All the rage is about Bellamy Road, another Zito trainee, who is Zito's 4th string. He won by 15 last out; but, that was an allowance race at Gulfstream Park against an even weaker field. That win, with a 96 Beyer will make Bellamy Road a huge underlay. So, we'll look to beat him. Scrappy T picks up Rafael Bejarano and will have post position 1. With his speed, he will go right to the front. If he can get rated properly and have enough at the end, he can wire the field--at a decent price. There are 2 other speed horses in the field- Going Wild (pp 5) and Galloping Grocer (PP 7). Going Wild ships in from Santa Anita where the track is rock hard. West Coast horses seem to have a tough time with the deeper East Coast tracks; so, I'll take a shot against him. Galloping Grocer has real talent; but, his Beyers have been on the decline and I think he will definitely be a factor; but, I don't expect him to be there at the end. I will go with the closers- Survivalist, Pavo and Naughty New Yorker. Pavo may get overbet since he has attracted the services of Jerry Bailey. However, Naughty New Yorker may get totally overlooked and could go off at double digit odds. The bet: $2 Exacta: Survivalist, Pavo, Naughty New Yorker over Scrappy T for a total of $6. $5 WPS- Naughty New Yorker.
Illinois Derby- Grade 2: Run at Hawthorne, this came up a really weak race. Rikman (pp 4) is stepping up from an optional claiming race into a Grade 2 stakes race and is 5-1. That gives you an idea of how weak this race really is. However, Rikman does have a chance to be on or close to the lead and will be in the thick of things. Monarch Lane is listed at 6-1 and is making only his 3rd career start. He's another that likes to be close to the front. Kansas City Boy can be on the lead or come off the pace, he's listed at 7/2; however, he breaks from PP 9 which is a disadvantage because he will either have to be hustled to the front or held back and close--which would be something new for him. The bet: $2 Exacta Box: Monarch Lane, Rikman and Kansas City Boy (total $12). $2 WPS on Rikman.
Santa Anita Derby- Grade 1: This is Sweet Catomine's coming out party. The filly against the boys who has won 5 in a row against fillies. She does have one outstanding Beyer at 102 last October; but, she has been so-so since then. The 5 victories in a row and the filly against the boys angle will have her wildly overbet. Her owners have also publicly stated that they would run her in the Derby even if she finished in the top 4. So, one questions if they are really looking to win the race or just want to run well enough to get into the Derby.
The race doesn't shape up well for her. She comes from off the pace and the Santa Anita has come up as a paceless race. General John B, PP-6, is the lone speed in the race and if things set up right, he could be a live longshot. His Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park was dismal; but, if you throw out that race and look at his form at Santa Anita, this horse has the look of a longshot with a chance, at 20-1, I'll take a shot. Giacomo, PP-1, is a stalker and could be well positioned to pounce at the head of the stretch. 4-1 on him is generous. Don't Get Mad is a closer that can sometimes race mid-pack if he has to. If he does that tomorrow, look for him to get into the exotics. If you're looking for a real longshot, consider A.P. Arrow. He is wonderfully bred and trained by D. Wayne Lukas. He is still a maiden, having run only 1 race; so he is stepping up, to put it mildly. However, stranger things have happened and this isn't a field with standouts. The bet: $2 Exacta: General John B, Giacomo over General John B, Giacomo, Don't Get Mad & A.P. Arrow (total $12). $2 WPS each on General John B and A.P. Arrow.
National Pick 3: There is a National Pick 3 tomorrow combining the winners of the Carter Handicap at Aqueduct, the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct and the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne. I will make a $2 Pick 3 as follows:
Carter Hdcp: Unforgettable Max, Medallist & Don Six.
Wood Memorial: Scrappy T, Pavo, Naughty New Yorker.
Illinois Derby: Rikman & Kansas City Boy (3x3x2=18x$2=$36) If the Pick 3 comes up- Unforgettable Max, Naughty New Yorker and Kansas City Boy, get ready to fill out a 1099, and bring a wheelbarrow.
Good luck,
Racetrack lenny
They're Running For Real
Most seasons, you don't know if your Derby hopeful is out for a workout or is running for real. With some of the favorites knocked out of the Derby picture (e.g. Declan's Moon), a huge field is expected and so earnings become a factor. The only way to get earnings is to win races.
The Grade 1 Florida Derby showed that Nick Zito's High Fly is for real. Now 5 of 6, he stalked a brisk pace, grabbed the lead at the head of the stretch and looked good crossing the finish line at 6/5. He then ran on about another 1/8th of a mile to get that 1-1/4 under him. Zito now plans to rest High Fly right up to Derby day. Interesting tactic; however, everything Zito has tried with him has worked out beautifully. Another Zito trainee, Noble Causeway, ran a nice race, closing at the end and continued on past the finish line with good energy. This race helped him immensely. B.B. Best once again went to the lead, just as he did in the Fountain of Youth, and just as he did then, he gave way late. B.B. Best will be a good 7F horse.
Todd Pletcher had to be disappointed with Vicarage. Sent off at 7-1, he sat in 4th tracking the pace intently and was backing up at the end. If you're looking for an excuse, Vicarage hit the gate hard at the start and jockey John Velasquez moved him up aggressively while 4 wide and could not sustain that bid.
Maiden Papi Chullo is still a maiden and ran his worst race yet. He's had sensational workouts; but, he can't transfer those workouts onto the track. He was a real underlay at 9-1. It's time for his connections to put Papi Chullo in a maiden race so the horse can win and gain some confidence.
My longshot pick, Park Avenue Ball, sat on the rail saving ground under Ramon Dominguez. The rail was kind of dead at the Gulf yesterday; however, Park Ave. Ball was gaining along the rail. Only problem was that B.B. Best and High Fly were not tiring and drifting out. So, with no hole at the rail, Dominguez had to pull out for a late charge on the outside. It may have taken a little out of Park Ave. Ball as he tired late. At 26-1, he was worth a wager. This horse needs a pace meltdown to have any chance. Look for him in the Derby.
SunLand Park offered the WinStar Derby for a $500,000 purse. Southern Africa was sent off as the 8/5 favorite under Jon Court. He pressured the pace setter, Thor's Echo, ridden by Corey Nakatani. Southern Africa actually grabbed the lead briefly at the 3/4 pole; but, Thor's Echo came back to win by a length at 2-1. Pretty impressive. Sort It Out was closing from far back to just miss getting second at 2-1. In my mind, Sort it Out's close was more impressive than Park Ave. Ball. Are you getting the idea that I like closers?
You've got to admit, Nick Zito has a good hand of cards. Sun King, High Fly, Noble Causeway- I think he can smell roses.
Is that a crocus I see blooming???
Racetrack Lenny
