Racetrack Lenny

Weak Tea, Indeed

A bunch of prep races for the Derby and it's a weak bunch going to the post tomorrow.

Bay Shore-Grade 3: Run at the Big A (Aqueduct-New York). In the past considered a good prep, this race has become a showplace for sprinters and it looks like this year is no different. What is different is that Lost In The Fog is in this race and on paper, towers over the field. Posting triple-digit Beyers in his 4 outings, look for him to get sent off at 1-10 or lower. The only other horse that could conceivably threaten if Lost In The Fog falters is Attila's Storm. Attila's Storm broke his maiden in January posting a 97 Beyer. A repeat of that could put him within a few lengths of the favorite. This is a nice race to watch and not bet.

Wood Memorial- Grade 1: the featured race at Aqueduct, the Wood comes up like a cup of weak tea. All the rage is about Bellamy Road, another Zito trainee, who is Zito's 4th string. He won by 15 last out; but, that was an allowance race at Gulfstream Park against an even weaker field. That win, with a 96 Beyer will make Bellamy Road a huge underlay. So, we'll look to beat him. Scrappy T picks up Rafael Bejarano and will have post position 1. With his speed, he will go right to the front. If he can get rated properly and have enough at the end, he can wire the field--at a decent price. There are 2 other speed horses in the field- Going Wild (pp 5) and Galloping Grocer (PP 7). Going Wild ships in from Santa Anita where the track is rock hard. West Coast horses seem to have a tough time with the deeper East Coast tracks; so, I'll take a shot against him. Galloping Grocer has real talent; but, his Beyers have been on the decline and I think he will definitely be a factor; but, I don't expect him to be there at the end. I will go with the closers- Survivalist, Pavo and Naughty New Yorker. Pavo may get overbet since he has attracted the services of Jerry Bailey. However, Naughty New Yorker may get totally overlooked and could go off at double digit odds. The bet: $2 Exacta: Survivalist, Pavo, Naughty New Yorker over Scrappy T for a total of $6. $5 WPS- Naughty New Yorker.

Illinois Derby- Grade 2: Run at Hawthorne, this came up a really weak race. Rikman (pp 4) is stepping up from an optional claiming race into a Grade 2 stakes race and is 5-1. That gives you an idea of how weak this race really is. However, Rikman does have a chance to be on or close to the lead and will be in the thick of things. Monarch Lane is listed at 6-1 and is making only his 3rd career start. He's another that likes to be close to the front. Kansas City Boy can be on the lead or come off the pace, he's listed at 7/2; however, he breaks from PP 9 which is a disadvantage because he will either have to be hustled to the front or held back and close--which would be something new for him. The bet: $2 Exacta Box: Monarch Lane, Rikman and Kansas City Boy (total $12). $2 WPS on Rikman.

Santa Anita Derby- Grade 1: This is Sweet Catomine's coming out party. The filly against the boys who has won 5 in a row against fillies. She does have one outstanding Beyer at 102 last October; but, she has been so-so since then. The 5 victories in a row and the filly against the boys angle will have her wildly overbet. Her owners have also publicly stated that they would run her in the Derby even if she finished in the top 4. So, one questions if they are really looking to win the race or just want to run well enough to get into the Derby.

The race doesn't shape up well for her. She comes from off the pace and the Santa Anita has come up as a paceless race. General John B, PP-6, is the lone speed in the race and if things set up right, he could be a live longshot. His Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park was dismal; but, if you throw out that race and look at his form at Santa Anita, this horse has the look of a longshot with a chance, at 20-1, I'll take a shot. Giacomo, PP-1, is a stalker and could be well positioned to pounce at the head of the stretch. 4-1 on him is generous. Don't Get Mad is a closer that can sometimes race mid-pack if he has to. If he does that tomorrow, look for him to get into the exotics. If you're looking for a real longshot, consider A.P. Arrow. He is wonderfully bred and trained by D. Wayne Lukas. He is still a maiden, having run only 1 race; so he is stepping up, to put it mildly. However, stranger things have happened and this isn't a field with standouts. The bet: $2 Exacta: General John B, Giacomo over General John B, Giacomo, Don't Get Mad & A.P. Arrow (total $12). $2 WPS each on General John B and A.P. Arrow.

National Pick 3: There is a National Pick 3 tomorrow combining the winners of the Carter Handicap at Aqueduct, the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct and the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne. I will make a $2 Pick 3 as follows: Carter Hdcp: Unforgettable Max, Medallist & Don Six. Wood Memorial: Scrappy T, Pavo, Naughty New Yorker. Illinois Derby: Rikman & Kansas City Boy (3x3x2=18x$2=$36) If the Pick 3 comes up- Unforgettable Max, Naughty New Yorker and Kansas City Boy, get ready to fill out a 1099, and bring a wheelbarrow.

Good luck,

Racetrack lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 10:18 PM