Racetrack Lenny

A Good Betting Derby Coming Up

And it can't come soon enough; but, we have to wait.

Declan's Moon did not come out of his last race in good shape. The heat that was detected in his knee turns out to be a bone chip. With rest, it may take care of itself. If it doesn't resolve itself, it would require surgery. In either case, he will need at least 60 days rest and that knocks him out of the 1st Saturday in May. Those that bet him with gusto in the Futures Pools are crying in their beers.

Some intersting races this past weekend with equally interesting results. The big races were the Louisiana Derby at the Fairgrounds and the Santa Anita Oaks at Santa Anita. First, the Cajun Country roundup:

High Limit made his 1st start of the year and made a smashing debut for trainer Bobby Frankel. High Limit wired the field to win by 4 widening lengths in near track record time. Looks like High Limit may be the real deal. Storm Surge, another Derby hopeful, could get no closer than 3rd and was nearly 8 lenghts behind High Limit with no apparent excuse. The 2 closers in the race, Sort It Out and Scipion both turned in clunkers. Scipion finished 6th beaten 9 lenghts and Sort It Out was 8th beaten nearly a dozen lengths. Both ran well their prior start. If you like consistency in performance; then, these 2 are not for you. They need a pace meltdown to get the money and that just didn't happen Saturday.

The Santa Anita Oaks went to 1/5 favorite Sweet Catomine. A very nice win and the papers are all gushing about how she will cream the boys when the time comes. Ok, hold on. Take a look at that race a bit more closely and you will see her competition was not exactly world caliber. The fractions were so/so. Yes, she was impressive closing strongly into a lifeless pace; but, I'll wait until she runs against the boys in the Santa Anita Derby. If she finishes in the top 4; then, she belongs in the big race.

The Rebel Stakes is coming up at Oaklawn and it should be a very interesting race if Rockport Harbor starts against Afleet Alex. Rockport has been nursing a very sore hoof and is said to be about 75%. That could be hype or "downing expectations". We'll see if he can carry his speed. Afleet Alex will get his chance to prove he can close like he did last year. Thankfully, John Velasquez will ride.

My early Derby horse, Sun King, will run in the Tampa Bay Derby. That's a puzzling choice as I think Sun King needs a little better competition to be tightened up properly for Derby Day. However, Nick Zito seems to be doing everything right with this horse; so, I will keep the faith.

If you are into the Futures Pools, the current pool has the Field as the favorite at 6/1. That'a a ton better than 2/1 just 2 weeks ago. At 6/1, I'll take a $20 stab at the field. Afleet Alex is the 2nd choice at 8/1; not very appetizing considering he closes from far back and would need a good trip to get the roses. The Derby is the ultimate trip race. Sun King is 10/1 in the futures and will get another $10 on him in addition to the other $10 I put on him at 13/1. Remember, in the futures pools, you get the odds that were in place for that pool regardless of what happens thereafter. However, your horse must start in the Derby and needs to win the Derby. That's a taller order than you would think. That's why when betting these pools, you need to demand value for your dollar.

All for now. Thanks to all who've responded to the call for jockey Gary Boulanger and his financial need during his recovery from very serious injuries.

Bet with your head, not over it!

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 9:03 PM