Racetrack Lenny

The Pre-Derby Mixed Bag

2 major stakes races this weekend that served to make muddier waters even murkier.

The Blue Grass Stakes (Grade 1) run at Keeneland yesterday saw trainer Todd Pletcher come into the Derby picture with a nice going-away win for Bandini (John Velasquez up). Bandini stalked the pace being set by Spanish Chestnut and took command at the top of the stretch to win by 6 lengths at 3-1. Bobby Frankel's horse, High Limit (Ramon Dominguez up) ran evenly all the way around to finish 2nd. Closing Argument ran evenly to just neck out Sun King for the show spot at 12-1. The big disappointment in the race was Sun King (Edgar Prado up). Sun King was facing legitimate competition for the first time. You may recall his romp in the Tampa Bay Derby where he got sent off at 1-20 (that's right, a nickle to the dollar). On that day, Sun King faced a glorified cheap allowance field, this was a bit different. Sun King got an uncharacteristic poor ride by Prado who went the overland route- 3 and 4 wide at times and while he did almost get 3rd, he did not show his usual punch in the stretch. D.Wayne Lukas' Consolidator ran near the back of the pack and could not improve his position finishing 5th.

All this being said, Sun King and High Limit really didn't have to show much yesterday. They already qualify on the basis of earnings to get into the Kentucky Derby field; so, why totally tax the horse when an "in the money" or close to "in the money" finish will do? It looks like Sun King, a legitimate closer, is also a trip horse. Without a good trip, he will finish off the board. As for High Limit, I don't think he was really pushed hard. So, don't overlook these 2 in the Derby.

Before you jump on the Bandini bandwagon, consider the time of this 1-1/8th mile race: 1:50. A full 3 seconds slower than Bellamy Road's Wood Memorial. 3 seconds is open lenghts.

As for Spanish Chestnut, he once again proved he is at best a one mile horse. I think he would be a much better sprinter with 6 furlongs being his game. He does not belong in the Derby; but, his owners have a bad case of Derby fever and will likely get the Chestnut in where he will be a pace factor and nothing else.

At Oaklawn Park, the Arkansas Derby (Grade 2) was run and for those who loved Greater Good's big win in his last out at Oaklawn, you were rewarded with a 5th place finish. In his defense, Greater Good had post 10 which is hard to overcome at Oaklawn. Having to hustle a bit just to get good positioning may have tired him a bit. He was 8th most of the way and improved his position to finish a non-threatning 5th.

Afleet Alex (Jeremy Rose up) won the race by 8 widening lenghts showing that his lung infection is all cleared up. His time of 1:48-4/5 was quite decent; but, not quite the Wood Memorial time of 1:47. The connections of Afleet Alex had announced that John Velasquez would ride the horse during the triple crown races; however, Velasquez said yesterday that he will ride Bandini in the Derby. So, Afleet Alex's owners are now faced with keeping the kid, Jeremy Rose, or looking for a "name" rider. That will be a huge factor in Afleet Alex's playability in the Derby.

Todd Pletcher's lightly raced Flower Alley got 2nd after his win in the Lane's End. He just got outrun by a more experienced horse. Nick Zito's 5th string horse, Andromeda's Hero ran evenly at 10-1 to get 3rd.

As of now, it looks like Bellamy Road will be the Derby favorite off his win in the Wood. Sun King may be a 2nd or 3rd choice as will Afleet Alex. It will be a good betting race.

May the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 2:16 PM