Racetrack Lenny

All Hail Arrogate

For the first time since the Breeder's Cup began, I had an 0'fer.  Yes, I was 0 out of all the races run.  It was humbling and very maddening because in 4 consecutive races, my exacta boxes came in 1st and 3rd.  Had they been 1st, 2nd, the exacta would have paid quite well, thank you.  I hate days like that because you're all around it.  I'd rather get beat so badly that you scratch your head and ask "what didn't I see?"

Sentiero Italia in one of the turf races with Joel Rosario was my live longshot of the day.  I wonder if he was alive entering the race.  An inexplicable rear end finish.  My best bet of the day was Haveyougoneaway.  She answered the question emphatically- Yes, she has gone away...and with my money, to boot!

In the Classic, I felt Arrogate's Travers romp was a fluke considering before the Travers, the horse was running in $40,000 and $62,500 Optional Claiming races.  Then trainer Bob Baffert shot for the moon by entering him in the Travers, a mile and a quarter, Grade 1 stakes race.  I thought he was nuts.  He got listed 20/1 morning line and was sent off 11/1.  In all honesty, he should have been sent off at 50/1 or better.  He had post position #1 and took off and never looked back scoring a triple digit Beyer of 122, setting a stakes and track record for the distance.  Wow!  Who knew?  That dramatic an improvement told me he might have freaked for a day and he'd come back to earth.

California Chrome, meanwhile, was beating everything coming his way in California posting triple digit Beyers each and every time maxing out at 113.  Chromie drew post #4 for the Classic while Arrogate drew post #10.  So, Arrogate, if he was for real, needed to get out of the gate quick to establish position and had to run with California Chrome who was a legitimate speed horse.  Add to the mix Effinex who has had triple digit Beyer efforts along with Melatonin and Hoppertunity and this race was no "gimme".  It turned into one of the best races in Breeder's Cup history.

Arrogate wins by a half-length posting a Beyer of 120 and California Chrome was 2nd posting a Beyer of 119, his career best.  Keen Ice finished 3rd by a nose over Hoppertunity 18 lengths back.  That's how good the top two were.  It was a race that didn't deserve a loser.  You hoped for a California Chrome/Arrogate dead heat.

So, Arrogate appears to be the "real deal" and his connections say he'll race as a 4 year old next year.  If he keeps up the stamina he's shown in the Travers and yesterday, the horse will be unbeatable.  California Chrome will have one more race; then, it's off to stud.  He will have earned nearly $18 Million and given all of us some great racing thrills.  Thanks, Art Sherman for a wonderful training job and thank God for giving Art Sherman the ride of his life.

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 5:29 PM 0 bets placed

2016 Breeder's Cup Classic

This year's Classic has one of the deepest fields in memory.  California Chrome has been a gem of consistency year in and year out and will be the likely favorite at post time.  He can be on the lead, stalk or come from behind, a very versatile horse with a good turn of foot.

Arrogate is going to draw a lot of attention based on his absolutely sensational Travers victory.  He is very lightly raced and was sent off at 11/1 in the Travers.  He had post #1 and was gunned to the lead by Mike Smith and never looked back.  He set some blistering fractions for the mile and a quarter.  A 46-3/5 is a very fast half mile.  I thought he'd be cooked by the top of the stretch.  Instead, he opened up and ran away from the field and won by over a dozen lengths in 1:59-1/5.  That was a new stakes record and track record, previously held by General Assembly in 1979.  Can Arrogate duplicate his Travers run?  He set a Beyer figure of 129, easily the highest Beyer of any horse in the U.S. this year.  Was that real or was it a fluke?  If he doesn't draw the rail post, is he able to come from off the pace?  Lots of questions.  But, no question this is one talented dude.

Effinex has had a good year and beaten quite a few good horses this year.  He threw in a clunker in the West Virginia Derby with no excuses; but, rebounded to win his next start handily.  He has a good turn of foot and is a fighter, he doesn't give up easily.  With Arrogate, California Chrome, Frosted, Keen Ice and Nyquist in the field, Effinex can get overlooked and be an overlay at a possible 15/1 or better.  Would be worth a shot.

Frosted has been a tremendous horse this year after battling American Pharoah last year.  This year, he has truly matured into a running machine rattling off win after win.  His last race, the Woodward, was sub-par.  He did not break well, brushing the gate and found himself in mid-pack, a place he was not used to.  Somehow he got caught in traffic and had to come wide before he could split horses and duel down the stretch with stablemate Mubtahiij.  However, closer Shaman Ghost at 9/1 picked up all the pieces and nailed Mubtahiij at the wire with 2/5 Frosted coming in 3rd.  They say great horses overcome trouble and win.  I think Frosted just wasn't at his best that day and he's been raced so much this year that it's probably time for a rest.

Gun Runner is a speedy type; but, he has proven a number of times that he cannot get the mile and a quarter.  Yet, here he is at the same distance.  The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.  Can definitely be a pace factor; but, will see him wilting in the stretch.

Hoppertunity is one of those "tough luck" horses.  Runs well; rarely wins, always has an excuse.  However, he put everything together to win the $1 Million Jockey Club Gold Cup by a head over Effinex and Protonico with Mubtaahij in 4th.  John Velasquez gave Hoppertunity an incredible ride and beat a standout field.

Found and Highland Reel are 2 Irish imports who can get the distance; but, they are both also entered in the turf races, which is their surface.  I could bet them on dirt only because they've carried more weight and they've gone longer distances; but, they'd be a definite bet on turf.

Shaman Ghost made his way into the Classic by winning the Woodward, defeating Frosted and Mubtaahij in the process, at odds of 9/1.  A nice win for trainer Jimmy Jerkens who inherits his father's claim to fame "the giant killer".  A good shot on his best race if a fast pace develops and it sets up nicely for a closer.

Nyquist the Kentucky Derby winner hasn't done much since and shows up here.  Will get bet by many in the Breeder's Cup crowd who turn out once per year, will look at the Racing Form see that Nyquist won the Kentucky Derby and run to the windows to overbet him.  He'll be an underlay and isn't worth putting a whole lot of money on.

Keen Ice was last year's Travers' upsetter at 18/1 when he beat American Pharoah after Frosted went on a kamikaze mission against American Pharoah allowing Keen Ice to close and beat the Triple Crown winner by a half length.  Does his best running late, from far back.  Needs a pace meltdown to be in the thick of it.

Check in later next week when the actual field gets clearer.

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 8:22 PM 0 bets placed

The 2015 Crop

Will a Triple Crown winner emerge from this year's crop of three-year olds?  I think it highly doubtful.

In 45 years of following the ponies, I can't remember when I have stumbled upon such an undistinguished crop of three year olds than 2015.  Can you name a single standout that has dominated the news the way Secretariat did in 1973 or Seattle Slew in 1975 or even California Chrome last year?  Don't worry, neither can I.  And therein lies the rub.  No one has run so consistently well against top ranked competition that he or she has caught the imagination of the racing public.  It does not bode well for the 47th year without a Triple Crown winner.

Dortmund is currently ranked #1 in points earned (171).  Only the top 20 horses in points earned get into the Kentucky Derby.  The Derby continues to be the most dishonest of horse races because you not only have to show stamina; you have to pray for a good post position and then you have to hope you're not caught in the cavalry charge and get bumped like a pinball during the race.  It is not an honest horse race.  It should be limited to 12 horses, tops.  Dortmund has been facing so-so competition being the odds-on favorite and winning all his races.  He's been facing fields of 5 or 6 horses.  Facing 20 will be a whole new world for Dortmund.  His running style is being in front.  The Derby has the quickest first quarter of the 3 Triple Crown races which is why it is so rare to see a "gate to wire" score.  The race goes not to the fastest horse; but, to the horse that can sit the trip.  It's the ultimate trip race.

Carpe Diem won the Kentucky Blue Grass in good fashion.  He proved he does not need the lead to pounce and win by open lengths.  He faced a fairly honest field and still demolished them at 3/5, has the look of a good contender.  Can he sit the trip?

Frosted was good early on, then began regressing to finish 4th in the Florida Derby causing his connections to become very concerned.  He was entered in the Wood Memorial where favored El Kabeir was a suspect favorite and Frosted rebounded strongly to take the Wood in good order over 21-1 Tencendur who ran the race of his life to be a solid 2nd some 6 lengths ahead of El Kabeir.

Mubtaahij is in the picture solely off his 100 points gained in winning the UAE Derby overseas.  Sheikh Mohammed made sure his UAE Derby would be a 100 point race just to get someone over here.  The horse is vastly overrated.

Materiality is real good when he's good and really bad when he's not so good.  He's won some impressive races; but, managed to throw a few clunkers in for good measure.  Which Materiality shows up on May 2nd?

El Kabeir took the New York route to the Derby and his record over his last 3 races doesn't exactly get the blood racing.  He led until 100 yards out in the Withers when Far From Over went by to win at a mile.  His next start in the mile and a sixteenth Gotham was an improved performance being life and death to prevail by a nose after shaking off 3 legitimate contenders.  Yesterday in the Wood Memorial, a change in tactics.  40 MPH wind gusts were blowing down the backstretch and any speed horse would have been cooked trying to go fast into that headwind.  So, El Kabeir took back and trailed the field gambling he'd come on at the end.  Problem was, the front end was reasonable going 24-1/5 for the opening quarter and 49 flat for the half.  As they entered the stretch, long shot Tencendur had the lead with Frosted coming hard on the outside.  El Kabeir put in a belated run finishing 3rd six lengths behind Tencendur.  The lustre is off.

That's it for the top contenders, more on the others later.

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 8:29 PM 0 bets placed

Belmont 2013- A Palatial Upset

The Belmont Stakes has become one of the most unpredictable races in the Triple Crown trio.  Horses that have the breeding to go the distance fail; while others who appear to be "distance challenged" can win such as in Saturday's Belmont when Palace Malice staggered home in 2:30-4/5ths to win at 13-1.  Don't worry Secretariat, your record will forever be safe.

I boxed 4 horses in my exacta: Overanalyze, Orb, Incognito and Revolutionary.  I threw out Frac Daddy, Giant Finish, Midnight Taboo, Vyjack and Unlimited Budget as horses who just could not get the distance.  I threw out Palace Malice given his incredibly rapid pace in the Ky. Derby and the fact that his only win came last year at 6-1/2 furlongs at Saratoga.  I felt he was a sprinter who could never get a mile and a half.  As soon as the track was upgraded from muddy to good, then to fast, I threw out Freedom Child as I saw him as a sloppy track freak who needed slop to help him win.  His fast track form was dismal.  I threw out Oxbow because he needs to be on or right off the lead and I didn't think he would get away with the theft he pulled off in the Preakness.  I was very impressed that he ran through swift fractions and still finished second. 

I thought Overanalyze, as an "in & outer" was now due for a win and his breeding suggested distance.  Upon further review after the race, I would have been given pause to see just one 4 furlong workout when you're about to race a mile and a half.  Overanalyze didn't lift a hoof.  Orb was far, far back and put in a good, strong run to finish a close up third.  He just ran out of steam in the last 100 yards suggesting that a mile and a half was just a wee bit too far for him.  There certainly was a fast pace to close into; unfortunately, the pace setters weren't backing up.  I used Incognito because of the very favorable jockey change from Mike Luzzi to Irad Ortiz, Jr.  I discounted his Peter Pan Stakes performance to the fact that this horse does not take to the mud.  Of all the new faces, I thought he could hit the board and he did round out the superfecta finishing 4th.  Revolutionary was the true disappointment of the day.  His breeding suggested the distance wouldn't be a problem.  His record was one of a strong closer who had always been in the money.  Revolutionary made a strong middle move on the far turn; but, couldn't sustain his bid and hung in the stretch to finish a non-threatening 5th. 

The early stages of the race played out exactly as I had thought.  Frac Daddy would be sent to the front with Oxbow and Freedom Child giving chase and Palace Malice sitting 4th or 5th if Mike Smith would be able to ratchet back his speed.  Obviously, the elimination of blinkers had a very beneficial effect.  When I saw the opening quarter of 23-1/5 seconds, I was feeling good about my exacta box.  Oxbow then took the lead, got passed by Freedom Child between calls and then Oxbow got the front again through a half in a grueling 46-4/5 seconds.  At the far turn, Oxbow had a clear lead of about a length; but, the horse now challenging was the distance-limited Palace Malice.  I didn't think Palace Malice could sustain his bid and then saw Orb coming from way back along with Revolutionary.  At the top of the stretch, my race prediction went out the window.  Palace Malice took the lead and was never to look back.  Orb flattened out to finish 3rd while my other two ran out, except for Incognito ending up 4th.

Given the Ky. Derby performance, I thought Palace Malice would be a 20-1 proposition or higher.  He was an underlay at 13-1.  Well, that's why they call it gambling; you turn the page and wait for the next race.

Will I see a Triple Crown before I die?  Well, I'm 60 and it better happen soon.  However, today's breeding tactics just don't make for a schedule that calls for a mile and a quarter the first Saturday in May, a mile and three sixteenths just two weeks later and a mile and a half 3 weeks after that.  Maybe it's time to space the races out a bit and allow 3 or 4 weeks between each.  But, if they did that, the Belmont wouldn't be the "Test of the Champion".

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 9:04 PM 0 bets placed

Wrong Bird Wins Belmont

Yesterday's Belmont will be one of the more memorable ones for me simply because the way I thought the race would play out is pretty much how it unfolded. The end result was my saver bet on Summer Bird afforded a nice reward at 11.90/1. Had Mine That Bird hung on for 2nd, a nice exacta would have made for a very rewarding day. In any event, I collected more than I bet; so, that's a win.

In a race lacking speed, the experts were predicting that Charitable Man would go for the lead and go as far as he could. The same was predicted of Miner's Escape. Instead, it was stalker, Dunkirk, who changed tactics and went for the lead. And did he ever go for it! The opening quarter was 23-2/5ths and the half in 47, a very strong pace. I was sitting confident that my closers would save the day. At the far turn, Dunkirk continued his strong pace. Charitable Man & Mr. Hot Stuff, made a run at him; but, both began to wilt and Dunkirk was now joined by a fast coming Mine That Bird who was forced to go three wide to get into contention. Mine That Bird has a 1/2 length lead; but, somehow Dunkirk found another gear and remained a stubborn foe by coming on again in the stretch. What both horses didn't see was that jockey Kent Desormeaux had Summer Bird in 5th gear and he was closing powerfully with every stride. About 100 yards out, Summer Bird blew by and Mine That Bird had to settle for a heartbreaking 3rd as Dunkirk got 2nd by a little under a neck.

Dunkirk will need a rest now since the Belmont took a lot out of him. He had to be hosed down after the race since Dunkirk gave it all he had. For a horse to set the fractions he did and still finish 2nd was impressive. I didn't think he had it in him.

I felt bad, as did the crowd, for Calvin Borel. It would have been a great story for him to get his personal triple crown. He was gracious in defeat. However, you would have thought that Borel's agent or his trainer could have enticed an owner/trainer in one of the earlier races running a hopeless longshot to give Borel a mount just so he could get a feel for the track and know where things were. By not doing that, I believe Borel pushed the button too soon on Mine That Bird and the rest is history. Same thing happened in 2004 with Stewart Elliott on Smarty Jones. Doesn't anyone learn from past mistakes?

Well, it's now a waiting game for the Haskell at Monmouth and the Travers at Saratoga to see who turns up to keep this competitive year going.

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 5:46 PM 0 bets placed

The Belmont: 2009

Well, tomorrow's the big day. I sure wish we hadn't had 3 days of rain; but, the forecast is for clearing skies tomorrow and we hope Craig Allen is right. If it clears early enough, maybe the track will be fast by post time.

1. Chocolate Candy- (Garrett Gomez) 10/1: His wins have come over the polytracks in California. He ran on dirt for the first time in the Derby and finished a respectable 5th. A couple of good workouts at Belmont Park. Running style is that of a stalker; however, in a field devoid of speed, he may be up much closer than usual. He has never had a speed figure in triple-digits; but, perhaps a fast dirt track will show us what he's made of. He has Seattle Slew in his bloodline. Not impossible; but, not probable.

2. Dunkirk- (John Velasquez) 4/1: A $3.7M yearling purchase who was not raced at age 2. As a 3 year old, the Belmont would be his 5th lifetime start. His owners are treating him more gently than their grandmother's china! Ran sensationally in the Florida Derby finishing 2nd to Quality Road, who was subsequently injured. In finishing 2nd, Dunkirk posted a speed figure of 108 which would get the job done here. His Ky. Derby was a disaster. He stumbled at the start, was advancing into 9th position on the backstretch when he had to steady twice. The end result was a lacklustre 11th place finish. I wish he had more seasoning. Of concern is 3 out of his 4 races show "stumbled leaving the gate". If he can't get out of the gate well, you expend energy trying to catch up. Too untested to take 4/1 on him.

3. Mr. Hot Stuff- (Edgar Prado) 15/1: Another West Coast polytrack specialist where he won his maiden in Feb. after 5 starts. His lone start on dirt was at the Ky. Derby and that didn't go so well. He was soundly bumped twice and was squeezed at the start. He also didn't care for mud and finished 15th. If you're willing to toss out the Derby, then he looks like someone that might hit the bottom of a superfecta ticket (i.e. finish 4th) as he does have some closing kick.

4. Summer Bird- (Kent Desormeaux) 12/1: His 3rd place finish in the Arkansas Derby earned him a 94 speed rating. He made up 15 lenghts in the stretch to get 3rd. In the Ky. Derby, he was wide throughout and was fanned 7 wide at the top of the stretch to finish 6th. He finished better than it looks on paper. Desormeaux is an improvement over Chris Rosier. Keep in mind, Desormeaux is seeking redemption from last year's brown-bagger performance by Big Brown. His bloodline includes both Birdstone and Grindstone; so, we know distance isn't a problem. A very live longshot.

5. Luv Guv- (Miguel Mena) 20/1: Named after N.Y. ex-Gov. Eliot Spitzer. Took him 10 races before winning his maiden. D. Wayne Lukas immediately threw him into the Preakness where he was beaten 9 lengths. A versatile runner, he can take the lead, stalk or close. He just can't seem to win. In over his head. It would be a riot if he did win and Gov. David Paterson handed the trophy to the horse named for his predecesor.

6. Charitable Man- (Alan Garcia) 3/1: Yes, he did win the Peter Pan Stakes 4 weeks ago and posted a 100 speed figure. He raced behind Hello Broadway who opened up by 8 lenghts at a suicidal pace and Charitable Man ran by him like Hello Broadway was standing still...because Hello Broadway WAS standing still. In the Peter Pan, Charitable Man toted 116 lbs. Tomorrow he carries 126. 10 lbs. makes a big difference. He's a front runner and I don't think he will get the distance after only 4 lifetime starts. At 3/1, he's a huge underlay.

7. Mine That Bird- (Calvin Borel) 2/1: I want in the worst kind of way to see Calvin Borel win his own jockey triple crown. I just don't think it will happen, despite Borel's guarantee. Mine That Bird has been a different horse since they changed tactics and have turned him into a one run closer. Deep closers rarely win the Belmont; but, it has happened. This week's rains will likely have the racetrack deeper than usual. Borel will go right to the rail and the rail may be the deepest part of the track tomorrow. Inexplicably, Borel is listed to ride in one earlier race---on the turf! How idiotic is that? His agent should have been able to coax some owner to allow Borel to ride at least a longshot in a dirt race so Calvin can get a feel for the track and know where he is at all times. Belmont is the only 1-1/2 mile track in the country and it is different than any other track. Borel not having an early mount is a mistake. That being said, Mine That Bird has proven that he belongs and I expect him to do well.

8. Flying Private- (Julien Leparoux) 12/1: A not too bad Arkansas Derby, a horrific Ky. Derby (last) and a dramatic improvement in the Preakness earning him his first triple-digit speed rating. Will he "bounce" after that effort or is he on an improving form cycle? I believe he's on the improve and he's playable underneath in your triples.

9. Miner's Escape- (Jose Lezcano) 15/1: His best speed rating is an 89 in the Frederico Tesio at Pimlico on May 2nd. He was on the lead through Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade fractions. His win would be one of the greatest upsets of all time.

10. Brave Victory- (Rajiv Maragh) 15/1: A Nick Zito horse that appears to be on an improving form cycle. His Peter Pan run wasn't bad...wasn't good; but, wasn't bad. He can close when he wants to or he can stalk when he can. Between Zito's Miner's Escape & Brave Victory, the latter has a better chance.

With no speed in this race, I think Charitable Man will inherit the lead with Miner's Escape pressing him. They'll be joined by Luv Guv who will try to stay 2 or 3 lenghts back hoping he can last the distance. I expect the track may be listed as "good" or "wet fast". It will be a tiring track. I expect the half mile to go in 49-4/5ths, a crawl. Chocolate Candy will be mid-pack stalking and begins to make his move approaching the far turn. Velasquez, Desormeaux and Prado will get busy on their mounts and Borel will bide his time with Mine That Bird. As they turn for home, Chocolate Candy will have a short lead with Flying Private getting closer and Dunkirk just a length behind. Summer Bird will be about 3 lenghts back; but, have dead aim on the leaders. Calvin Borel will realize the rail is dead and swing to the outside with Mine That Bird. Through the stretch, Dunkirk will fade leaving the "birds" to battle it out with Calvin Borel getting his personal triple crown and Summer Bird right there with him for a "tweet tweet" exacta. Flying Private flattens out a bit and gets 3rd while Mr. Hot Stuff closes belatedly for 4th.

BETS:

$2 exacta: 4,7 with 1,3,4,7,8 ($20)

$1 triple: 4,7 with 4,7 with 1,3,8 ($6)

$1 triple: 4,7 with 1,3,8 with 4,7 ($6)

$2 WPS: 4,7 ($12)

Total bet: $44

Good luck, may the horse be with you.

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 8:05 PM 0 bets placed

Preakness Gets Us Back--We Hope!

Mine That Bird certainly didn't scare off the competition as a field of 13 will go in tomorrow's Preakness.

Tomorrow's wagers will all depend on the weather and track bias. There is a 50% chance of showers & thunderstorms tonight with a 40% chance for same tomorrow. The track can go from fast to sloppy with just one heavy shower. Pimlico is also a weird racetrack in that when it is well harrowed and made fast, it can create a heavy speed bias-meaning many races are won wire-to-wire. If the first 10 races are won by front runners, then my bets will tend towards speedsters. Tough race to handicap. Anyway, here goes:

1. Big Drama-John Velasquez (10/1): Likes to run on the front end and will have to tomorrow having drawn the rail. 7 lifetime starts and has been in the money in each of them. Won a Grade 3 stakes at a mile & a sixteenth back in December. Won the Grade 2 Swale Stakes at 7 furlongs in March. Has the look of a sprinter and I can't see him getting the 1-3/16th. Carries 126 lbs for the first time while being asked to go the longest he's been. Will be a pace factor; but, won't last.

2. Mine That Bird- Mike Smith (6/1): Impressive winning the Derby; but, when you look at his lifetime record, it makes the Derby seem like a fluke. Ran an impressive 105 speed rating in the Derby where previously his best had been 81. So, he literally improved by 20 lengths to take the Grade 1 Derby. Go figure. Maybe the horse loved the mud. Maybe Calvin Borel figured the horse was a one run closer who needed to make one sustained run to win. Whatever the case, Borel opts to ride the filly in this race. I think this horse has BOUNCE written all over him and a return to previous form puts him somewhere mid-pack. Bettable if 12/1 or higher. At 6/1 or less, no thanks.

3. Musket Man- Eibar Coa (8/1): 7 lifetime starts and in the money each time. Consistently runs speed ratings ranging from 91 to 98. Just got nosed out of the place spot in the Derby. If allowed to somehow get in the clear, he's very playable.

4. Luv Gov- Jamie Theriot (50/1): Just broke his maiden in his last out. In way over his head. For fans of Eliot Spitzer and his hookers.

5. Freisan Fire- Gabriel Saez (6/1): A dreadful trip in the Derby where he got hurt by getting a badly cut foot. Trainer Larry Jones says the injury is healed and Freisan Fire turned in a 5 furlong work in 58-2/5ths. Looks ready to me. This could be another Hansel. In the 1991 Derby, Hansel was the 5/2 favorite who finished 10th. He then rebounded in the Preakness to win by daylight. If you throw out the Derby, this horse stands out. We'll pick him for the win.

6. Terrain- Jeremy Rose (30/1): A 91 speed rating as his best won't get it done here. Doesn't sport a bad record; however, his best has come on synthetic surfaces and he hasn't shown an affinity for dirt. Running style is that of a closer; but, a closer who can't break 100 in speed rating. Really up against it here.

7. Papa Clem- Rafael Bejarano (12/1): Has run a race a month since Feb. finishing 2nd twice, winning the Arkansas Derby and getting bounced around like a pinball in the Derby where he finished 4th some 7 lenghts back. Does own a 101 speed rating from the Arkansas Derby. However, his 5 furlong workout over a fast track this week was a dreadfully slow 1:05. May be tired and may be starting to tail off. Signs aren't good.

8. General Quarters- Julien Leparoux (20/1): This horse is the most experienced in the field having 12 lifetime starts. He is a gem of consistency--he follows every good race with a bad race. The Derby was a bad race for him; so, if he runs to form, he should run well tomorrow. A lifetime speed best of 102 can put him in the thick of things and at 20/1, he's a live longshot.

9. Pioneer Of The Nile- Garrett Gomez (5/1): Wasn't going to win on Derby day; but, the fact that he held on for 2nd after being part of the suicidal pace in the Derby was impressive. Question is- did that suicidal pace take something out of him? Maybe not. He ran a 4 furlong workout in a strong 47-3/5ths. Except for the Derby, he is a synthetic track horse. The muddy track at Churchill Downs played more to his like of soft tracks. Pimlico does whatever they can to make sure their track is like concrete which I don't think Pioneer of The Nile will care for.

10. Flying Private- Alan Garcia (50/1): A mule in horse clothing. For D. Wayne Lukas fans only.

11. Take The Points- Edgar Prado (30/1): A 99 speed rating over the dirt in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park back in Jan. His next 2 races were sub-par over synthetic tracks. Is a stalker and if he can improve his speed rating into triple digit territory, he could be an overlooked longshot. The problem is an outside post which will make him have to shoot out of the gate like a cannon to get to his stalking position. That may take too much out of him. If he doesn't leave quickly and gets stuck mid-pack, it will be a new running style that may not be to his liking. Trainer Todd Pletcher all along has pointed this horse for the Preakness. Interesting.
At high odds, may be worth a $2 WPS saver bet just in case.

12. Tone It Down- Kent Desormeaux (50/1): EVERY Preakness has a "horse for the course" and this is this year's "horse for the course". Unlike past years, this horse has no chance. Up until 2 races ago, he was running in claiming races. He ran in the ungraded Federico Tesio stakes. With a rail trip and a 1/2 mile in a pedestrian 48-4/5ths, he was backing up in the stretch to have choked in the final sixteenth to finish a tiring 3rd. That effort got him a speed rating of 80. His owners will be able to say "We ran in the Preakness"....just plug in the word "last" after the word "ran".

13. Rachel Alexandra- Calvin Borel (8/5): The super-filly tests the boys. Some say the extreme outside post hurts. I think it helps. She won't get bounced around and Calvin Bo-rail will find a way to keep her out of trouble before he slips up the rail with her. Her last 4 speed ratings are 100, 103, 101, 108. All came with hand-rides. She's never been shown the whip. On the negative side, she's had 4-6 weeks rest between races and has never run back with only 2 weeks rest. That being said, she's a deserving favorite and her sire, Medaglia D'Oro, guarantees speed and stamina. The filly allowance of 5 lbs (121 vs. 126) is a factor in her favor. Very dangerous.

The Bets:

$1 Exacta #5, #8, #13 over #2, #3, #5, #8, #11, #13 (total $15)

$1 Triple: #5, #8, #13 with #2, #3, #8, #11 with #5, #8, #13 (total $20- I think--I suck at math)

$5 WPS #5 (total $15)

$5 WPS #8 (total $15)

$2 W #11 (total $2)

Total bet: $67

We're not taking the $210 bath we took in the Derby.

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 8:01 PM 0 bets placed

The Aftermath....

Congratulations to jockey Calvin Borel (Bo-rail) on a masterful ride on 50/1 Mine That Bird. It was pretty obvious that Borel was elated at his improbable win. He is a truly American story. A hard scrabble life that has now reaped him rewards he thought never achievable. It is so nice to see someone who truly LOVES his job. My hat's off to him.

Now to the post-mortem. Once again, the luckiest horse wins the Derby because of too large a field, the weird positioning of the starting gate which only serves to encourage a roller-derby start, and a heavy muddy track that proved tiring in the ridiculously swift fractions set yesterday. The field was then helped by the unfortunate scratch of I Want Revenge who developed heat in an ankle and was properly withdrawn so as not to imperil the horse. A very humane and gutsy call by the connections of I Want Revenge. Of course, my handicapping fully included I Want Revenge as part of the pace scenario. I was expecting him to somehow get in the clear and be 4 or 5 lenghts off the front end. With the scratch, the complexion of the race changed.

You could handicap the race 1,000 times and there is no way you could make a logical case for a victory by Mine That Bird. The way he won makes me think that even if I Want Revenge had not scratched, we would have had the same outcome. Horses, like humans, have their good days and their bad days. Obviously, Mine That Bird had his best day on a day that mattered. For the others, bad luck intervened.

Freisan Fire, the post-time favorite, got the worst of it when he was soundly bumped on both sides, grabbed a quarter and suffered a gash that bled all through the race. You could tell the horse was in some measure of distress as he had his head sideways and was not making up ground. The horse was being evaluated today to determine how serious the injury is and to make sure no infection sets in.

Join In The Dance set a ridiculous fast pace, going 22-4/5 for the opening quarter in a mile and a quarter race. Of course, there were plenty others dumb enough to keep him company. As the field turned for home, the front end was inhaling fumes which allowed tired horses to drift out and the rail opened up for Calvin Bo-rail. The rest was history.

Pioneer of the Nile turned in an excellent effort given he had never raced on dirt and he was part of the suicidal speed duel. He may be the real deal and is a dangerous Preakness horse. Papa Clem & Musket Man fared quite well themselves.

So, we'll wait 2 weeks for an honest horse race at Pimlico called the Preakness.

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 4:23 PM 0 bets placed

Derby Day

Well, we're just under 48 hours to Derby post time. The weather will be a factor as there is a 50% chance of showers on Friday and a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms on Derby day. We may not get a fast track and I have factored that into my "analysis".



As I say every year, the Derby is truly THE trip race of each year. In too big a field, the best horse doesn't necessarily win; the victory usually goes to the luckiest horse. If the field were limited to 12, we'd have an honest horse race; but, I don't think I'll ever see that.



Another pet peeve is not coupling horses with the same owner & trainer. West Side Bernie and Atomic Rain should run as an entry as should Regal Ransom and Desert Party. It's not fair to the betting public to have them try to figure out which horse is going to be sent. And now, my thoughts:



1. West Side Bernie- Last win came in the Ky. Cup Juvenile, a Grade 3 race for 2 year olds run last September over the synthetic track. Since then, has run against some of today's entries. West Side Bernie's stablemate Atomic Rain will likely set a lively pace to set things up for this closer. However, this horse's speed figures suggest there would have to be a complete collapse on the front-end for West Side Bernie to have a chance. Don't be fooled by the 2nd to I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial. Despite a pedestrian pace in a field of mediocrities (except for I Want Revenge), West Side Bernie couldn't close the sale. Finally, a closer in post position 1 is the kiss of death.



2. Musket Man- his last 3 races have been good. He scored his highest speed rating in his last race, the Illinois Derby which he won. Therein is the problem. The victory was such a dramatic improvement that this horse has "bounce" written all over him. Now, if the Illinois Derby wasn't a fluke, Musket Man looms an upset possibility.



3. Mr. Hot Stuff- Never raced on dirt with his only victory being a maiden win just 3 races ago. His breeding screams turf. Pass.



4. Advice- Stone closer who needs a fast pace to be able to close into. His lone dirt start was dismal. His victory in the Lexington was over a synthetic track and it was visually impressive as he closed from dead last in a field of 11 to win by a length. However, when you look at the fractions for that race, the front end totally collapsed and Advice was able to take advantage. He has yet to break 100 in his speed ratings and many in this field have their 100 or better. Can't see him sneaking into the top 4.



5. Hold Me Back- Lone dirt try at Aqueduct saw him defeated by 14 lenghts. Hold Me Back is a different animal on synthetic tracks. His breeding suggests a good turf horse. I don't think this horse will take kindly to dirt.



6. Freisan Fire- Last 3 races have been impressive. He seems to do just what he needs to do in order to win. He has raced exclusively on dirt and handled a sloppy track well. His A.P. Indy breeding suggests distance won't be a problem. He has had a 7 week layoff which is a bit of a concern; but, a 57 seconds 5 furlong work this past Monday was sensational. Is he ready to fire? or was the work too fast? Freisan Fire has the look of a winner. The pick.



7. Papa Clem- Has done his best with Rafael Bejarano who gets the mount. Set the pace in the Louisiana Derby (his only try on a sloppy track at a mile and a sixteenth) and tired in the stretch to get 2nd. He followed that up with a nice score in the Arkansas Derby. He got a great speed figure that day. However, when you look at his races, he follows a good speed rating with a mediocre one and that in & out form concerns me. But, I still think Papa Clem has the look of a live longshot and may be worth a stab at a price.



8. Mine That Bird- Looked terrific at Woodbine on the synthetic track. When switched to dirt, mediocre results. High speed rating of 92 has him in some mighty deep water. For bird lovers only.



9. Join In The Dance- We certainly won't be joining him in a victory dance because this "distance challenged" horse just cannot get a mile and a quarter. A victory would pay a boxcar price. Good chance for last place.



10. Regal Ransom- One of 2 Godolphin Stable entries, the other being Desert Party. Both should have been coupled. Caught a favorable pace in his last race in Dubai. 2 good workouts at Churchill Downs. How will the trip affect him? Traditionally, overseas speed figures are higher than those assigned in the U.S. Don't see him getting a relaxed pace. Pass.



11. Chocolate Candy- Seems to be peaking at the right time with him knocking on the door of a triple speed figure. That being said, he has exclusively raced on synthetic tracks and it is a crap shoot if he'll take to dirt in a racing situation. His last 3 starts were in fields of 7,6 and 7 respectively and 20 is a whole new ballgame. Even with veteran jockey Mike Smith getting the mount, seems up against it.



12. General Quarters- Maybe it's been the sentimental hype about 75 year old trainer Tom McCarthy; but, I like this horse's chances. I consider him a live longshot. He does have a triple digit speed figure and his racing style is that of a grinder. He's always mid-pack in large-ish fields and this is a horse that could pick up the pieces with luck.



13. I Want Revenge- Since switching to dirt, this animal has been a totally different horse. I witnessed him in the Gotham stakes where he drew away by 8 lenghts with ease under young 19 year-old Joe Talamo. I witnessed the Wood Memorial where I Want Revenge literally walked out of the starting gate, spotting the field at least half a dozen lenghts. Talamo did not panic and raced at the back of the pack. At the far turn, he made contact with the field and began weaving his way through. In mid-stretch, Talamo tried to get through a seam and got through at the last minute to post a 1-1/2 length win. It was impressive. It will do both horse and jockey well that they faced and overcame adversity. I wish the odds were more favorable; but, you leave this horse out of your bets at your own peril. Based on his current form, he will be in the top 3.



14. Atomic Rain- Will run like an atomic bomb. His name is speed and he will try to go as far as he can to set it up for his stablemate West Side Bernie (see #1). Another candidate to finish last.



15. Dunkirk- 3 lifetime starts and 4-1 odds make this horse a bad betting proposition. Yes, he's shown talent, finishing 2nd to Quality Road who withdrew from the Derby due to injury. But, even the great Curlin finished 3rd in the Derby. If Dunkirk somehow floats up to 10-1 or so, then you might want to put a few bucks on him. Demand value.



16. Pioneer of the Nile- 4 straight victories over synthetic tracks. Does just enough to win and has posted excellent speed ratings. His sire, Empire Maker, suggests this horse will get the distance and take to the mud. Concerns: Don't think he'll handle dirt well, has been running in small fields, outside post position. Seems nuts to toss out a horse with such a good record; but, I'm tossing him out.



17. Summer Bird- His owner and trainer will be able to say one day "we had a horse in the Derby", that's all.



18. Nowhere to Hide- His lone win was breaking his maiden, has been awful since. This horse may hide, but, not with my money.



19. Desert Party- the other half of the Godolphin entry which is running uncoupled from Regal Ransom. Won the Sandford at Saratoga as a 2 year old on a muddy track as the 4/5 favorite. Hugged the rail and romped home by 4 lenghts to post a 100 speed figure. Followed that up a month later with a 6th place finish in the Hopeful, beaten by 10 lenghts. Puzzling. Shipped off to Dubai where he has a decent record. His breeding by Street Cry and Tabasco Cat suggest speed and stamina. Workouts have been impressive and I believe this is the half of the Godolphin entry that is truly going to be sent. Interesting that owner/trainer left regular rider, Frankie Dettori, behind and went with Ramon Dominguez. May press a hard pace...and may last. Can't ignore him at 15-1.



20. Flying Private- As recently as 4 races ago, this horse was running in claiming races. Got a suck-up 2nd on the synthetic track in the Lanes End, which got him just enough earnings to back his way into this race. For D. Wayne Lukas fans only. A win would prompt the headline "Mule Wins Kentucky Derby".

My bets:

$10 WPS- #6 -Freisan Fire

$5 WPS- #13- I Want Revenge

$2 WPS- #12- General Quarters & #19- Desert Party

$2 Win- #7- Papa Clem

$2 Exacta Part Wheel: #6- Freisan Fire & #13- I Want Revenge over #6- Freisan Fire, #7- Papa Clem, #12- General Quarters, #13- I Want Revenge, #19- Desert Party

$1 Triple Part Wheel: #6,#13 with #6,#7, #12, #13, #19 with #6, #13

$1 Superfecta Part Wheel: #6, #13 with #6,#7,#12, #13, #19 with #6, #13 with #2, #6, #7, #12, #13, #19

Good Luck! May the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 7:43 PM 0 bets placed

Friesan's on Fire

4 major prep races this weekend and Friesan Fire is well positioned to be the Derby favorite.

In the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby run yesterday at a mile and a sixteenth, favorite Hello Broadway (2/1-Eibar Coa) stalked the pace set by 135/1 longshot Perfect Bull and looked like a threat at the 3/4 pole before flattening out to finish a dismal 7th. No excuses for the favorite given parade-like fractions of 24, 48-2/5ths and 1:12-2/5ths. 2nd choice, the 5/2 General Quarters ran last and closed belatedly to pass tired rivals and finish 5th. We can excuse his lacklustre finish given the slow fractions. The third choice in the wagering at nearly 6/1 was Musket Man (Daniel Centeno up) ran mid-pack, then faded to next to last before making one strong, sustained run to get up by a neck over 35/1 longshot Join In The Dance. I don't think the Derby winner was in this race.

At Oaklawn Park, the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes was run featuring the much-heralded Old Fashioned who was sent off as the prohibitive 2/5 choice under Ramon Dominguez. Old Fashioned suffers from the "Big Brown" problem: the horse must have an outside post to do well. Saddled with post position 1, Old Fashioned got suckered into a suicidal speed duel with 6/1 Silver City. After cutting fractions of 22-2/5ths and 46 flat, both horses were sucking wind at the head of the stretch. That gave 56/1 longshot Win Willy the chance to circle the field from last to score by 2 widening lengths. Unless the connections of Old Fashioned can figure out a way to get their horse to rate, he will be an "also ran" in the Derby. A disappointing finish.

At Santa Anita, the San Felipe Stakes (Grade 2, 1-1/16th miles), drew a small field of 6 over the "all weather" track. The highly regarded Pioneer of the Nile was sent to the post as the overwhelming 1/4 favorite and did not disappoint; although, the fractions were pretty pedestrian and the competition was what you might find in an allowance race. Until I see the horse dominate rivals on dirt, I'm skeptical.

The real show of the weekend was at the Fair Grounds in Louisiana where the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby was run. 2/1 favorite, Friesan Fires (Gabriel Saez up) took off in the sloppy stretch under a hand-ride to score by over 7 lenghts at the wire. 2/1 was a true gift! Papa Clem (Rafael Bejarano) was sent off at 5/1 and cut the fractions over a very sloppy track but could not compete with the winner; although, he did hold off the late running Terrain (8/1 under Julien Leparoux). Giant Oak, Flying Pegasus, Uno Mas and Patena finished 4th, 6th, 7th and 8th respectively. None of them really fired and you wonder if they just didn't care for the mud.

So, right now, Friesan Fire has won on fast tracks, around one turn, at 7 furlongs, on a sloppy track, at a mile and a sixteenth and looks like the real deal. Hopefully, luck remains with him to stay healthy and bring us our just rewards on the first Saturday in May.

May the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 8:40 PM 0 bets placed