Racetrack Lenny

A Yankee In The Winner's Circle??

Could very well be. George Steinbrenner may have spent millions on his slumping Yankees; but, his $84,000 investment in Bellamy Road looks poised to give him a big return. That is, of course, if Bellamy Road wins as is now expected.

As of today, it looks like the full field of 20 will go in the Derby. In alphabetical order they are: Afleet Alex (Jeremy Rose); Andromeda's Hero (TBD); Bandini (John Velasquez); Bellamy Road (Javier Castellano); Buzzard's Bay (Mark Guidry); Closing Argument (Cornelio Velasquez); Coin Silver (Patrick Valenzuela); Consolidator (Rafael Bejarano); Flower Alley (Jorge Chavez); Giacomo (Mike Smith); Going Wild (TBD); Greater Good (John McKee); Greeley's Galaxy (Kent Desormeaux); High Fly (Jerry Bailey); High Limit (Ramon Dominguez); Noble Causeway (Gary Stevens); Sort It Out (Brice Blanc); Spanish Chestnut (Joe Bravo); Sun King (Edgar Prado) and Wilko (Corey Nakatani). If there are some defections, look for Don't Get Mad to try to get in off his impressive Derby Trial.

Bellamy Road is expected to be the post time favorite off his sensational run in the Wood Memorial where he tied the track record for the 1-1/8 mile distance and broke the Wood Memorial record. The track record is now shared with Riva Ridge who set the mark at Aqueduct in 1973. However, keep a few things in mind. Bellamy Road is lightly raced. He broke his maiden at 2 at first asking and then won another race before finishing 7th in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile at Keeneland. He emerged at Gulfstream Park on March 12th in an allowance race where he won for fun by 15 lengths with a speed rating of 96. He shows up in early April at the Wood Memorial and is sent off as the 2nd choice and ran the race of his young career winning by 17 widening lenghts and setting a speed rating of 120. That is sensational. But, the Wood was his 5th lifetime start and the improvement was so dramatic that one wonders if it took a little bit out of him. In my mind, he is the ultimate candidate to bounce off his Wood performance. However, even if he comes down to earth to a 100 or so speed rating, that is what some of the others in the race have been doing; so, an off day could still keep Bellamy Road very much in the picture. That's a scenario I hate--you want to beat the horse because he will offer no value at the expected low odds; yet, you have to use him because he is a legitimate contender.

Post position will play a huge factor in Bellamy Road's odds. If he gets post 1 through 10, you have the real possibility of an even money favorite or better. Post 11 through 20 may put him at 5/2 or higher making him worth a wager. We'll know on Thursday of this week.

Another reminder: The best horse does not always win the roses. The Derby is the world's ultimate trip race. A good trip, being in the right place at the right time can put you in the winner's circle.

I'll comment on the others during the week; but, you get the picture: I think Bellamy Road is beatable this coming Saturday.

Keep your mortgage money safe!

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 4:16 PM