Racetrack Lenny

Tougher Than It Looks

A week ago, you would have put all your money on Bellamy Road and your handicapping was over. But, Bellamy Road drew Post Position 16 and it makes things both interesting and hard to handicap.

Bellamy Road is certainly a deserving favorite. His breakthrough performance in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 9th was the stuff of legend. He ran a 120 speed figure, the fastest for any Derby prep race ever. However, I was there and Aqueduct was souped up more than the track at the Indy 500. Earlier races that day by maidens at 6 furlongs were being run in near record time. That doesn't take anything away from Bellamy Road because he was just dominant in that race. Going Wild tried to stay with him and was beaten 41 lengths. Post 16 may allow you to get better than even money odds and at 5-2 morning line, that would be a gift.

The question remains: Did the Wood take something out of Bellamy Road, could he bounce off that effort? I think the answer is yes; but, even if he regresses to run a speed figure of between 100-105, he still is in the picture. He's tough to throw out.

Who can beat Bellamy Road? I'll make a case for 4 horses.

1) Sun King: He certainly ran a great race at Gulfstream Park in his 3 year old debut, putting up a speed figure of 104 at one mile. He stalked the pace and drew off in the stretch. He next surfaced at Tampa Bay Downs in the Tampa Bay Derby, got sent off at 1-20 (yes, a nickle to the dollar) led all the way to win by 3 and showed a speed rating of 91 against a very, very weak field. He then ran in the Blue Grass, was 6 lenghts back throughout and finished 4th beaten 9 lenghts while posting his 2nd lowest speed rating of his career-88. In the Blue Grass, he raced wide throughout and he may not have cared for Keeneland's deeper surface. While he certainly seems to be regressing and does not instill confidence, his record is eerily similar to 1995 Derby winner, Thunder Gulch. Thunder Gulch seemed to be regressing after brilliant early races, got sent off at 25-1 in the 1995 Derby and won. Why do I like him: He has Edgar Prado, an excellent veteran jockey who has ridden in high-pressure situations. He also comes out of Post 3 which will allow him to secure a ground saving trip at the rail and be in the 1st 6 or 7 horses. Finally, we know he can get a triple digit speed rating on his best--maybe tomorrow we see his best.

2) Wilko- Has not had a triple digit speed rating; but, he's going in the right direction having last closed to get 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby-missing by 1/2 a length. That impressed me because Wilko closed into a slow pace set by Buzzard's Bay. Wilko won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile last year which automatically jinxed him for the Derby. No BCJ winner has won the Derby. This could be the race that breaks the jinx. If the Red Sox did it, so can Wilko. One drawback is Post 14; but, if jockey Corey Nakatani can get him away in good order and secure a position in mid-pack, he could be heard from at the end, especially with the expected hot pace.

3) Afleet Alex: A gem of consistency with his out of the money finish in the Rebel Stakes being a complete throwout. In that race, he finished 6th beaten 12 lenthts; but, he came out of that race the next day with a lung infection. After rest and anti-biotics, he came back strong in the Arkansas Derby winning by 8 widening lengths and posting his best ever speed rating (108). That being said, his form cycle shows that he had always run a high double digit speed figure after each triple digit effort. However, he has won even the high double digit races. Another concern of mine is the inexperienced Jeremy Rose as the jockey--but, the kid seems to really know this horse; so, I will let it go. Finally, Afleet Alex fits the profile of a Derby winner. He is a closer from off the pace; but, he never comes from out of the clouds to win it. He is no worse than mid-pack and if the pace meltdown happens, Afleet could be picking up the pieces. Jeremy Rose has to be very patient and very careful not to let Afleet Alex duck in or drift out in the stretch which Afleet Alex is fond of doing. If he does and interferes with another runner, you could see your first Derby DQ in a long time.

4) Noble Causeway: With Giant's Causeway of Ireland as his daddy, we know Noble Causeway can get the distance. The horse is bred to run all day. His last race was a nice 2nd in the Florida Derby where he got a speed rating of 100. His speed ratings in 2005 have been 77, 85, 96 and 100. Clearly, a horse moving in the right direction. He is at the peak of a form cycle and is hard to leave out as he is another closer who can pick up the pieces at the end. Veteran Gary Stevens rides which is a huge plus. He is a patient rider with a good clock in his head and will know when to make his move.

For the Superfecta, is there a bomb that can get 4th? Absolutely. Buzzard's Bay can be in that mix as can Giacomo and Sort it Out.

So, how do you bet this? Here's what I'm doing:

$1 Exacta: Sun King/Wilko/Noble Causeway/Afleet Alex OVER Sun King/Wilko/Noble Causeway/Afleet Alex/Bellamy Road. ($20- 20 combinations).

$10 Exacta: Bellamy Road OVER Afleet Alex/Wilko/Noble Causeway/Sun King ($40- 4 combinations)

$1 Trifecta: Sun King/Noble Causeway/Afleet Alex OVER Sun King/Wilko/Noble Causeway/Afleet Alex/Bellamy Road OVER Bellamy Road/Giacomo/Buzzard's Bay/Sort It Out ( $36- 36 combinations-if I did my math right)

$1 Superfecta: Sun King/Wilko OVER Sun King/Wilco OVER Bellamy Road, Afleet Alex, Noble Causeway OVER Giacomo/Sort it Out/Buzzard's Bay ($18- 18 combinations if I did my math right).

$5 WPS- Sun King/Wilko ($30)

$10 WPS- Bellamy Road/Afleet Alex ($60)

Total Bets: $194.

Good luck, bet with your head, not over it. If you're smashed, let someone sober manage your money.

May the horse be with you.

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 12:06 PM