Racetrack Lenny

There's A Reason They Call It Gambling

Credit a friend from Connecticut with this entry's title. His wife had Giacomo across the board, as did my sister. At least I got to visit the cashier's window after the race. I also collected some minor consoloation money on Afleet Alex's show pay-off.

The question on many minds: What the #$#$ happened? Let's see if we can figure it out.

Bellamy Road had been coronated before the race was run. Sent off as the 5/2 favorite, there was a lot of money on Bellamy given that there was $26 Million in the win pool. As I mentioned in previous posts, the Derby is the only race in America where the horse that gets the trip wins the race. The best horse doesn't necessarily win or even get close. The only horse who ran the race of his career was Closing Argument who was up close to the torrid pace; yet, managed to get 2nd just missing by a 1/2 length.

As expected, Spanish Chestnut, who had no chance of winning, went out and slugged it out with Going Wild for a mile. The 1st quarter in 22-1/5 immediately told me a closer was going to win. At that point, I liked where my horses were sitting: Sun King had settled into 9th, Noble Causeway was 12th, Afleet Alex was 11th and Wilko was 13th-all off the pace. But, Bellamy Road was 3rd just a length off the leaders and no matter how much a wonder horse you are, a 22-1/5 quarter will take its toll in a mile and a quarter race. At this point in the race, Giacomo had 2 horses beat- Don't Get Mad and Greater Good.

The half mile went in 45-1/5, a suicidal pace. Still Spanish Chestnut and Going Wild. Bellamy Road had taken back to 5th as jockey Javier Castellano realized they were blazing. It would turn out that the first quarter split was going to come back to haunt him. My 4 horses were still settled in the same position as at the quarter mile. I was cautiously optimistic.

3/4's of a mile in 1:09-2/5 would be a good 6 furlong time; yet, there was a distance to go. Spanish Chestnut was still hanging on; Going Wild was starting to back up and, surprisingly, it was Flower Alley who now was going to try to match strides with the Chestnut. High Fly was in gear and moved up to 3rd while Bellamy Road was still biding his time in 5th. My horses were still in the back of the pack; but, there was time to get moving. Keep in mind that at this split, Giacomo was 18th with 15 lenghts to make up.

At the top of the stretch, 71-1 Closing Argument was threatening to pull off the huge upset. But, Afleet Alex was in gear along the rail with Bellamy Road now pulling off the rail to be 4 wide and 3rd just a head off the lead. Wilko was now moving on the outside into 10th and I was starting to have some hope that I would catch an Afleet Alex/Wilko exacta. What I didn't see as a blur 10 wide on the outside was Giacomo surging from 18th, circling the field and being set down for the drive.

Bellamy Road took the lead for about 3 seconds in mid-stretch when that opening 22-1/5 quarter began to take its toll. Shockingly, Closing Argument was not folding his tent and Jeremy Rose was all over Afleet Alex asking for one last burst of energy. But, it was not to be as Giacomo shocked them all to pull off the 50-1 upset. You could handicap this race all day and never come up with him as a legitimate contender. That's why they call it gambling.

As long as Churchill Downs allows 20 horses into the starting gate, you will never have an honest horserace. Form goes out the window because luck takes over. It becomes a case of the horse that has the best trip, gets the win. If you look at the replay, Giacomo had the cleanest trip of all. If you read the chart of the race, Bellamy Road and Noble Causeway were both soundly bumped a few times during the race. Bellamy Road also didn't handle the huge crowd well--he was pretty lathered up in the paddock, never a good sign. Bandini was jittery as well and he was, perhaps, the race's biggest disappointment being sent off as the 3rd choice and finishing 19th. Perhaps it serves his owner's right- They owned both Bandini and Spanish Chestnut and the knuckleheads at Churchill Downs allowed them to run uncoupled in the wagering. The Chestnut's mission was to set a suicidal pace to allow Bandini to close from off the pace. Bandini was 7th early and steadily went backwards from there. So much for strategy.

As for the Racing Form, a waste of $5. When you examined every angle of the race, you couldn't have possibly come up with the top 2. Both from a speed rating point of view and experience, they just did not figure. Go figure!

Congratulations to those who had Giacomo. With his record, you needed to get a huge price for the risk being taken and you were handsomely rewarded. To whomever had the superfecta which paid $1.7 Million, congratulations. Remember me in your will, please. How the winning person came up with that combination will be the talk of the coming year.

As they say in racing, turn the page. It's off to the Preakness. Afleet Alex's trainer has already committed to running. Giacomo will have no choice but to run to see if there is the slimmest hope of a triple crown. The Preakness, in two weeks, could attract a big field as the best of the spring went from mortal locks to mere mortals. Should be interesting.

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 10:09 AM