Racetrack Lenny

One Hit Wonder? Preakness is Here

If someone had told you early Derby day morning that a horse running a speed rating of 100 would win the roses, you would have cut off his mint juleps right then and there. Well, that's what happened. Giacomo ran a 100 speed rating and captured the roses. Hey, he won it fair and square. He was the best horse that day. When you see isolated replays of that race, Giacomo had the trip of a lifetime. Everytime he needed a seam to run through, it just opened up. When the front runners melted down like a nuclear reactor, Giacomo picked up the pieces.

Can the same thing happen in the Preakness? Well, anything is possible; but, I don't think it's likely. 1) Pimlico plays kinder to speed with its hard surface and very tight turns. 2) The Preakness is a 16th of a mile shorter and 3) Pimlico has a shorter stretch.

The pace is likely to be very fast once again. Going Wild, who has no chance of winning this race, will set fast fractions out of post position 14. High Limit in post 11 will be right up close to the pace and if he slugs it out with Going Wild, the same last place finish for him can result. High Fly, Greeley's Galaxy, Scrappy T and Galloping Grocer are the other speed horses.

My picks: Scrappy T, Noble Causeway, Wilko, Afleet Alex.

Scrappy T- comes into the race as a fresh face and on the improve. His last race was the Grade 3 Withers at Aqueduct where he showed a speed rating of 102 and won after stalking the pace. He showed in that race that he could rate and not need the lead. My one concern is that Scrappy T's connections have dumped Norberto Arroyo in favor of Ramon Dominguez. I think Arroyo is the better rider; but, we'll see how this works out. Scrappy T is a hard knocker and just grinds it out. His worst showing was a distant 3rd in the Wood Memorial when Bellamy Road freaked that day and won by 17 lenghts. Scrappy T is a legit contender and will at least have a say in the outcome. Expect Scrappy T to go off between 15-1 and 20-1.

Afleet Alex- He got beaten a length in the Derby when Jeremy Rose tried to come up the rail when the rail was dead all day at Churchill Downs. That was a jockey mistake. Afleet Alex was full of run but he just started to tire with about 100 yards left to go. If you go back to his Arkansas Derby speed rating of 108, you know he has the speed to close from not too far off the pace. The trick is for this novice jockey to be patient and keep the horse in the 2 or 3 path coming down the stretch. Afleet Alex just got outkicked in the Derby; but, his pattern is that he bounces back strongly after a lesser effort. Because Giacomo will be a name everyone in the crowd will know, Afleet Alex may go off at 5/2 which would be a square price on him.

Noble Causeway- Watching isolated replays of the race, Noble Causeway's journey in the Derby was the total opposite of Giacomo's trip. Noble Causeway was soundly bumped twice, was twice in close quarters forcing Gary Stevens to take up with him and when it looked like there was a hole to run through, the hole closed. The question is "Did that trip spook him or did it make him a tougher horse?" We'll see tomorrow. I am willing to toss out the Derby and go back to his earlier form. If he runs to his Florida Derby form, he will be coming hard at the end. His 14th place finish in the Derby may give you double digit odds. I think he could go off at 10-1 to 12-1.

Wilko- Someday, someday this horse has got to break through again. He was closing fast in the Derby closing from 16th to 6th after being trapped behind a wall of horses with nowhere to go. On his best, he is dangerous and he can close from way back or stalk the pace depending on what's needed. A very versatile horse that somehow finds every excuse in the book to not win. Still, he has been in the money 5 out of his 8 races and it's hard to make him a throw out. Expect 6-1 to 10-1 on him.

TRIFECTA AND SUPERFECTA: For 3rd and 4th, a good case can be made for Greeley's Galaxy who may have the lead but be fading near the end. Also, the local "horse for the course" is Malibu Moonshine. Malibu Moonshine has run 5 times over the Pimlico strip last winning the Frederico Tesio stakes in a carriage horse time earning a speed rating of 82. However, he knows the course, Steve Hamilton knows Pimlico and someone is bound to get a suck-up 4th. Malibu Moonshine would not be the worst longshot stab in the world.

MY BETS:

I'll do a $2 Exacta part wheel: Scrappy T, Noble Causeway, Afleet Alex OVER Scrappy T, Noble Causeway, Afleet Alex and Wilko. (total cost $18)

$5 WPS- Scrappy T, Afleet Alex. (total cost $30)

$1 Trifecta: Scrappy T, Afleet Alex OVER Scrappy T, Afleet Alex OVER Noble Causeway, Wilko, Greeley's Galaxy, Malibu Moonshine. (total cost $8)

$1 Superfecta: Scrappy T, Afleet Alex OVER Scrappy T, Afleet Alex OVER Noble Causeway, Wilko, Greeley's Galaxy, Malibu Moonshine OVER Noble Causeway, Wilko, Greeley's Galaxy, Malibu Moonshine. (total cost $16- I think)

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 5:45 PM