Racetrack Lenny

Blue Grass & Arkansas Derby

Blue Grass Stakes: To be run at Keeneland at 1-1/8th miles. First Samurai gets the 8/5 morning line favorite tag; however, I think he can be beaten. The sleeper of the deck is Sinister Minister. He's in at 15-1, which is a huge overlay. He ran 2nd in the California Derby as the 9/5 second choice to Cause to Believe. Jockey Martin Garcia made the lead then hit the rail twice during the strecth run and was overtaken by Cause to Believe. Sinister Minister held 2nd by 14 lenghts. He gets a huge upgrade in rider with Garrett Gomez. This horse has a solid chance.

Nick Zito's Little Cliff also gets a jockey change from Jeremy Rose to Corey Nakatani. He will be handled a bit more aggressively and with the rail post position, he could make some noise tomorrow at 10/1.

As much as I have liked Bluegrass Cat, the effort in the Tampa Bay Derby was so dull that I would want more than 5/2 to bet him. Sent off at Tampa Bay at 2/5, Bluegrass Cat ran against a uninspired bunch and was life & death to hold second. Will pass.

Bet: $2 Exacta Box: Little Cliff, Sinister Minister, Strong Contender
$5 WPS: Sinister Minister

Arkansas Derby- To be run at 1-1/8th miles at Oaklawn. This race is nearly a rematch of the Rebel Stakes. Lawyer Ron at 7/5 looks unbeatable on paper. Those thought to have a chance against him are With A City, Private Vow, Red Raymond, Simon Pure, Superfly and Sayhellotolarry. Comments: With A City's win at 48/1 in the Lane's End at Turfway Park is suspect. He came from way out of it to win it on Turfway's Polytrack--which is a rubberized type surface that is deep, easy on the feet and produces some remarkable results for horses who haven't run well before. He's listed morning line at 15/1 and you'd have to get that or better to take a stab at him. I'm siding against. Private Vow, was sent off at 2/1 in the Lane's End and came up empty. Private Vow just likes to go and jockey Shaun Bridgmohan had a strangle hold on the horse in the Lane's End. When it came time to run, Private Vow was empty. If Bridgmohan rates him better tomorrow, he has a chance. Red Raymond closed from way back in the Rebel Stakes (also at Oaklawn) at 22/1. The pace scenario seems likely to be the same--fast fractions that can be closed into. He's not a throw out. Simon Pure, a Wayne Lukas trainee, set the fast pace in the San Felipe Stakes last month and failed to last. With more patient handling, perhaps he lasts to get a check. Superfly, was dull in the Lane's End, and gets a positive jockey change to Willie Martinez. Sayhellotolarry last won as the favorite in an $62K Optional Claiming race. While his win was impressive, this is a big step up in class.

Bet: $2 Exacta Part Wheel: Lawyer Ron & Red Raymond over Lawyer Ron, Red Raymond, Simon Pure and Private Vow.

$2 WPS- Red Raymond

$5 WPS- Lawyer Ron

May the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 9:57 PM