Racetrack Lenny

Bellamy Road Redux?

Blue Grass Stakes: For those that backed Sinister Minister based on my convoluted logic, congratulations. You were rewarded with nearly 9-1 for the effort. I must admit, when I saw 22-4/5 for the opening quarter, I was thinking Sinister Minister would sink in the stretch. Oh, ye of little faith! Garrett Gomez was a huge upgrade in rider for this front runner. Gomez thought he had the horse and he would find out by zipping on the lead and play "catch me if you can". In response, Sinister Minister freaked and won by better than a dozen lengths--shades of Bellamy Road. The difference is that Sinister Minister ran a strong race in the California Derby and a stronger race yesterday. The big question is: Did the effort take too much out of him and will he be a "bounce" candidate? We'll find out on May 6th, won't we?

As for other Derby hopefuls, we spotted some pretenders who just don't belong. Bluegrass Cat, sent off as the 9-5 favorite despite his tepid Tampa Bay Derby performance, was a rather distant 2nd early and ran a rather lacklustre race finishing 4th, beaten a solid 20 lengths. First Samurai, sent off the 5-2 second choice, was suspect coming in. The word was that he is a sprinter and that 1-1/8th miles was beyond his capability. That question got answered with a 5th place finish, beaten 25 lengths. He was rather prominent up to the 3/4 pole and then it was a steady tiring. Look for him in 6f or 7f sprints. The lightly raced Strong Contender, needed at least a 2nd place finish to have enough earnings to get into the Derby. Strong Contender ran evenly througout and was a tiring 3rd. No Derby for him.

Arkansas Derby: 1-2 favorite Lawyer Ron did not disappoint. However, jockey John McKee had to move much earlier than usual with his horse. McKee had elected to go the shortest route to the wire--riding the rail. However, with High Cotton showing the way and Superfly & Private Vow both very close to his outside, McKee looked like he was going to get pinned down at the rail. McKee sensed this and began some brisk urging to get Lawyer Ron to run into a hole ahead of him to take the lead just after an opening quarter in 23 flat. Lawyer Ron is a one run horse and the question was could he handle a sustained run to the wire? The answer was yes; but, he was a tiring horse nearing the wire drifting out noticeably. I wonder if this effort will take some starch out of him in 3 weeks. Other Derby contenders: Steppenwolfer was the only horse, at 7-1, that was doing any serious running at the end. He closed from 11th to get 2nd from a tiring Private Vow. Private Vow, off at 5-1, ran an even race, made a mild bid in the stretch and just wasn't good enough. Private Vow's connections need to rethink if rider Shaun Bridgmohan is the right jock for this horse. Bridgmohan doesn't seem to fit Private Vow. One-run closer, Red Raymond, off at 13-1, galloped at the back of the pack and never reached contention.

So, with 3 weeks to go to the Derby, it looks like someone could take the race running wire to wire. It all depends on post position. The serious contenders appear to be Brother Derek, Barbaro, Sinister Minister, Lawyer Ron, Sweetnorthernsaint and Bob & John. Could be a very interesting betting race.

All for now, may the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 4:07 PM