Racetrack Lenny

Belmont Picks

On paper, Afleet Alex will win tomorrow, pay about $3.00 and everybody goes home a winner. So, the Belmont shapes up as a poor betting race. The value will be in the exotic bets such as the trifecta and superfecta. However, I am not convinced that Afleet Alex is the mortal lock he is being made out to be. For the sake of racing, I surely hope he does win, it would be an emotional win after what this horse has endured this year.

When you look at Afleet Alex's record, every time he has posted a triple-digit speed rating, he has followed it up with a high double digit speed rating. Even with his every other race regression, he has still won or finished in the money. Tomorrow brings 3 new challenges: 1) Has his incident in the Preakness taken something out of him? 2) Can Afleet Alex get the 1-1/2 mile distance and 3) Can Jeremy Rose not get too nervous and push the button too soon in a long race? I think Afleet Alex will be beaten.

My picks are Southern Africa and Andromeda's Hero. Southern Africa has raced in various stakes races and is a horse on the improve. His speed ratings have been on the upswing with his last effort, a win in the Lone Star Derby, recording a speed rating of 96. If Southern Africa improves off that race and Afleet Alex regresses, Southern Africa may be able to pull off an upset. He has tactical speed and the question will be distance. I also wish his owners/trainers had decided to go with a jockey who has raced in the Belmont before. They have kept Jon Court as the jockey. But, I think back to 1990 when Go and Go won with Michael Kinane who had never raced at Belmont.

Andromeda's Hero ran 8th in the Ky. Derby which sounds awful but it was actually better than it looked. He was far back early and when he was finally able to shake loose in mid-stretch, he closed from 14th to 8th, being beaten 7 lengths. Nick Zito decided to give him 5 weeks rest and have him train at Saratoga's Oklahoma Training Track which has a very deep surface, much like Belmont. He is a one-run closer; but, he has shown in the past that he can be within 8 lenghts of the front; so, a strong effort tomorrow can put him in the picture.

Giacomo merits some respect because he is a grinder type horse that always runs a speed figure of between 95 to 100 which will be good enough to allow him to get a suck up 3rd or 4th. He's a must-use in the exotic bets.

I can't see Afleet Alex finishing worse than 4th; so, he is thrown into the mix at the bottom of the exotics.

For superfecta betting purposes, we can throw in a few deep closing longshots such as Nolan's Cat, Indy Storm and Chekhov.

My bets:

$5WPS- #4-Southern Africa and #7- Andromeda's Hero

$2 Exacta- #4-Southern Africa, #7-Andromeda's Hero OVER #4-Southern Africa, #5- Giacomo, #7- Andromeda's Hero and #9- Afleet Alex

$2 Trifecta- #4-Southern Africa, #7- Andromeda's Hero OVER #4- Southern Africa, #5- Giacomo, #7- Andromeda's Hero, #9- Afleet Alex OVER #1- Nolan's Cat, #5- Giacomo, #9- Afleet Alex, #10- Indy Storm, #11- Chekhov.

$1 Superfecta- 4,7 OVER 4,7 OVER 1,5,9,10,11 OVER 1,5,9,10,11

Good luck, may the horse be with you.

Racetrack Lenny

racetrack lenny went to the post at @ 8:33 PM