Racetrack Lenny

Wrong Bird Wins Belmont

2009-06-07T17:46:00.002-04:00

Yesterday's Belmont will be one of the more memorable ones for me simply because the way I thought the race would play out is pretty much how it unfolded. The end result was my saver bet on Summer Bird afforded a nice reward at 11.90/1. Had Mine That Bird hung on for 2nd, a nice exacta would have made for a very rewarding day. In any event, I collected more than I bet; so, that's a win.

In a race lacking speed, the experts were predicting that Charitable Man would go for the lead and go as far as he could. The same was predicted of Miner's Escape. Instead, it was stalker, Dunkirk, who changed tactics and went for the lead. And did he ever go for it! The opening quarter was 23-2/5ths and the half in 47, a very strong pace. I was sitting confident that my closers would save the day. At the far turn, Dunkirk continued his strong pace. Charitable Man & Mr. Hot Stuff, made a run at him; but, both began to wilt and Dunkirk was now joined by a fast coming Mine That Bird who was forced to go three wide to get into contention. Mine That Bird has a 1/2 length lead; but, somehow Dunkirk found another gear and remained a stubborn foe by coming on again in the stretch. What both horses didn't see was that jockey Kent Desormeaux had Summer Bird in 5th gear and he was closing powerfully with every stride. About 100 yards out, Summer Bird blew by and Mine That Bird had to settle for a heartbreaking 3rd as Dunkirk got 2nd by a little under a neck.

Dunkirk will need a rest now since the Belmont took a lot out of him. He had to be hosed down after the race since Dunkirk gave it all he had. For a horse to set the fractions he did and still finish 2nd was impressive. I didn't think he had it in him.

I felt bad, as did the crowd, for Calvin Borel. It would have been a great story for him to get his personal triple crown. He was gracious in defeat. However, you would have thought that Borel's agent or his trainer could have enticed an owner/trainer in one of the earlier races running a hopeless longshot to give Borel a mount just so he could get a feel for the track and know where things were. By not doing that, I believe Borel pushed the button too soon on Mine That Bird and the rest is history. Same thing happened in 2004 with Stewart Elliott on Smarty Jones. Doesn't anyone learn from past mistakes?

Well, it's now a waiting game for the Haskell at Monmouth and the Travers at Saratoga to see who turns up to keep this competitive year going.

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

The Belmont: 2009

2009-06-05T20:05:00.002-04:00

Well, tomorrow's the big day. I sure wish we hadn't had 3 days of rain; but, the forecast is for clearing skies tomorrow and we hope Craig Allen is right. If it clears early enough, maybe the track will be fast by post time.

1. Chocolate Candy- (Garrett Gomez) 10/1: His wins have come over the polytracks in California. He ran on dirt for the first time in the Derby and finished a respectable 5th. A couple of good workouts at Belmont Park. Running style is that of a stalker; however, in a field devoid of speed, he may be up much closer than usual. He has never had a speed figure in triple-digits; but, perhaps a fast dirt track will show us what he's made of. He has Seattle Slew in his bloodline. Not impossible; but, not probable.

2. Dunkirk- (John Velasquez) 4/1: A $3.7M yearling purchase who was not raced at age 2. As a 3 year old, the Belmont would be his 5th lifetime start. His owners are treating him more gently than their grandmother's china! Ran sensationally in the Florida Derby finishing 2nd to Quality Road, who was subsequently injured. In finishing 2nd, Dunkirk posted a speed figure of 108 which would get the job done here. His Ky. Derby was a disaster. He stumbled at the start, was advancing into 9th position on the backstretch when he had to steady twice. The end result was a lacklustre 11th place finish. I wish he had more seasoning. Of concern is 3 out of his 4 races show "stumbled leaving the gate". If he can't get out of the gate well, you expend energy trying to catch up. Too untested to take 4/1 on him.

3. Mr. Hot Stuff- (Edgar Prado) 15/1: Another West Coast polytrack specialist where he won his maiden in Feb. after 5 starts. His lone start on dirt was at the Ky. Derby and that didn't go so well. He was soundly bumped twice and was squeezed at the start. He also didn't care for mud and finished 15th. If you're willing to toss out the Derby, then he looks like someone that might hit the bottom of a superfecta ticket (i.e. finish 4th) as he does have some closing kick.

4. Summer Bird- (Kent Desormeaux) 12/1: His 3rd place finish in the Arkansas Derby earned him a 94 speed rating. He made up 15 lenghts in the stretch to get 3rd. In the Ky. Derby, he was wide throughout and was fanned 7 wide at the top of the stretch to finish 6th. He finished better than it looks on paper. Desormeaux is an improvement over Chris Rosier. Keep in mind, Desormeaux is seeking redemption from last year's brown-bagger performance by Big Brown. His bloodline includes both Birdstone and Grindstone; so, we know distance isn't a problem. A very live longshot.

5. Luv Guv- (Miguel Mena) 20/1: Named after N.Y. ex-Gov. Eliot Spitzer. Took him 10 races before winning his maiden. D. Wayne Lukas immediately threw him into the Preakness where he was beaten 9 lengths. A versatile runner, he can take the lead, stalk or close. He just can't seem to win. In over his head. It would be a riot if he did win and Gov. David Paterson handed the trophy to the horse named for his predecesor.

6. Charitable Man- (Alan Garcia) 3/1: Yes, he did win the Peter Pan Stakes 4 weeks ago and posted a 100 speed figure. He raced behind Hello Broadway who opened up by 8 lenghts at a suicidal pace and Charitable Man ran by him like Hello Broadway was standing still...because Hello Broadway WAS standing still. In the Peter Pan, Charitable Man toted 116 lbs. Tomorrow he carries 126. 10 lbs. makes a big difference. He's a front runner and I don't think he will get the distance after only 4 lifetime starts. At 3/1, he's a huge underlay.

7. Mine That Bird- (Calvin Borel) 2/1: I want in the worst kind of way to see Calvin Borel win his own jockey triple crown. I just don't think it will happen, despite Borel's guarantee. Mine That Bird has been a different horse since they changed tactics and have turned him into a one run closer. Deep closers rarely win the Belmont; but, it has happened. This week's rains will likely have the racetrack deeper than usual. Borel will go right to the rail and the rail may be the deepest part of the track tomorrow. Inexplicably, Borel is listed to ride in one earlier race---on the turf! How idiotic is that? His agent should have been able to coax some owner to allow Borel to ride at least a longshot in a dirt race so Calvin can get a feel for the track and know where he is at all times. Belmont is the only 1-1/2 mile track in the country and it is different than any other track. Borel not having an early mount is a mistake. That being said, Mine That Bird has proven that he belongs and I expect him to do well.

8. Flying Private- (Julien Leparoux) 12/1: A not too bad Arkansas Derby, a horrific Ky. Derby (last) and a dramatic improvement in the Preakness earning him his first triple-digit speed rating. Will he "bounce" after that effort or is he on an improving form cycle? I believe he's on the improve and he's playable underneath in your triples.

9. Miner's Escape- (Jose Lezcano) 15/1: His best speed rating is an 89 in the Frederico Tesio at Pimlico on May 2nd. He was on the lead through Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade fractions. His win would be one of the greatest upsets of all time.

10. Brave Victory- (Rajiv Maragh) 15/1: A Nick Zito horse that appears to be on an improving form cycle. His Peter Pan run wasn't bad...wasn't good; but, wasn't bad. He can close when he wants to or he can stalk when he can. Between Zito's Miner's Escape & Brave Victory, the latter has a better chance.

With no speed in this race, I think Charitable Man will inherit the lead with Miner's Escape pressing him. They'll be joined by Luv Guv who will try to stay 2 or 3 lenghts back hoping he can last the distance. I expect the track may be listed as "good" or "wet fast". It will be a tiring track. I expect the half mile to go in 49-4/5ths, a crawl. Chocolate Candy will be mid-pack stalking and begins to make his move approaching the far turn. Velasquez, Desormeaux and Prado will get busy on their mounts and Borel will bide his time with Mine That Bird. As they turn for home, Chocolate Candy will have a short lead with Flying Private getting closer and Dunkirk just a length behind. Summer Bird will be about 3 lenghts back; but, have dead aim on the leaders. Calvin Borel will realize the rail is dead and swing to the outside with Mine That Bird. Through the stretch, Dunkirk will fade leaving the "birds" to battle it out with Calvin Borel getting his personal triple crown and Summer Bird right there with him for a "tweet tweet" exacta. Flying Private flattens out a bit and gets 3rd while Mr. Hot Stuff closes belatedly for 4th.

BETS:

$2 exacta: 4,7 with 1,3,4,7,8 ($20)

$1 triple: 4,7 with 4,7 with 1,3,8 ($6)

$1 triple: 4,7 with 1,3,8 with 4,7 ($6)

$2 WPS: 4,7 ($12)

Total bet: $44

Good luck, may the horse be with you.

Racetrack Lenny

Preakness Gets Us Back--We Hope!

2009-05-15T20:01:00.002-04:00

Mine That Bird certainly didn't scare off the competition as a field of 13 will go in tomorrow's Preakness.

Tomorrow's wagers will all depend on the weather and track bias. There is a 50% chance of showers & thunderstorms tonight with a 40% chance for same tomorrow. The track can go from fast to sloppy with just one heavy shower. Pimlico is also a weird racetrack in that when it is well harrowed and made fast, it can create a heavy speed bias-meaning many races are won wire-to-wire. If the first 10 races are won by front runners, then my bets will tend towards speedsters. Tough race to handicap. Anyway, here goes:

1. Big Drama-John Velasquez (10/1): Likes to run on the front end and will have to tomorrow having drawn the rail. 7 lifetime starts and has been in the money in each of them. Won a Grade 3 stakes at a mile & a sixteenth back in December. Won the Grade 2 Swale Stakes at 7 furlongs in March. Has the look of a sprinter and I can't see him getting the 1-3/16th. Carries 126 lbs for the first time while being asked to go the longest he's been. Will be a pace factor; but, won't last.

2. Mine That Bird- Mike Smith (6/1): Impressive winning the Derby; but, when you look at his lifetime record, it makes the Derby seem like a fluke. Ran an impressive 105 speed rating in the Derby where previously his best had been 81. So, he literally improved by 20 lengths to take the Grade 1 Derby. Go figure. Maybe the horse loved the mud. Maybe Calvin Borel figured the horse was a one run closer who needed to make one sustained run to win. Whatever the case, Borel opts to ride the filly in this race. I think this horse has BOUNCE written all over him and a return to previous form puts him somewhere mid-pack. Bettable if 12/1 or higher. At 6/1 or less, no thanks.

3. Musket Man- Eibar Coa (8/1): 7 lifetime starts and in the money each time. Consistently runs speed ratings ranging from 91 to 98. Just got nosed out of the place spot in the Derby. If allowed to somehow get in the clear, he's very playable.

4. Luv Gov- Jamie Theriot (50/1): Just broke his maiden in his last out. In way over his head. For fans of Eliot Spitzer and his hookers.

5. Freisan Fire- Gabriel Saez (6/1): A dreadful trip in the Derby where he got hurt by getting a badly cut foot. Trainer Larry Jones says the injury is healed and Freisan Fire turned in a 5 furlong work in 58-2/5ths. Looks ready to me. This could be another Hansel. In the 1991 Derby, Hansel was the 5/2 favorite who finished 10th. He then rebounded in the Preakness to win by daylight. If you throw out the Derby, this horse stands out. We'll pick him for the win.

6. Terrain- Jeremy Rose (30/1): A 91 speed rating as his best won't get it done here. Doesn't sport a bad record; however, his best has come on synthetic surfaces and he hasn't shown an affinity for dirt. Running style is that of a closer; but, a closer who can't break 100 in speed rating. Really up against it here.

7. Papa Clem- Rafael Bejarano (12/1): Has run a race a month since Feb. finishing 2nd twice, winning the Arkansas Derby and getting bounced around like a pinball in the Derby where he finished 4th some 7 lenghts back. Does own a 101 speed rating from the Arkansas Derby. However, his 5 furlong workout over a fast track this week was a dreadfully slow 1:05. May be tired and may be starting to tail off. Signs aren't good.

8. General Quarters- Julien Leparoux (20/1): This horse is the most experienced in the field having 12 lifetime starts. He is a gem of consistency--he follows every good race with a bad race. The Derby was a bad race for him; so, if he runs to form, he should run well tomorrow. A lifetime speed best of 102 can put him in the thick of things and at 20/1, he's a live longshot.

9. Pioneer Of The Nile- Garrett Gomez (5/1): Wasn't going to win on Derby day; but, the fact that he held on for 2nd after being part of the suicidal pace in the Derby was impressive. Question is- did that suicidal pace take something out of him? Maybe not. He ran a 4 furlong workout in a strong 47-3/5ths. Except for the Derby, he is a synthetic track horse. The muddy track at Churchill Downs played more to his like of soft tracks. Pimlico does whatever they can to make sure their track is like concrete which I don't think Pioneer of The Nile will care for.

10. Flying Private- Alan Garcia (50/1): A mule in horse clothing. For D. Wayne Lukas fans only.

11. Take The Points- Edgar Prado (30/1): A 99 speed rating over the dirt in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park back in Jan. His next 2 races were sub-par over synthetic tracks. Is a stalker and if he can improve his speed rating into triple digit territory, he could be an overlooked longshot. The problem is an outside post which will make him have to shoot out of the gate like a cannon to get to his stalking position. That may take too much out of him. If he doesn't leave quickly and gets stuck mid-pack, it will be a new running style that may not be to his liking. Trainer Todd Pletcher all along has pointed this horse for the Preakness. Interesting.
At high odds, may be worth a $2 WPS saver bet just in case.

12. Tone It Down- Kent Desormeaux (50/1): EVERY Preakness has a "horse for the course" and this is this year's "horse for the course". Unlike past years, this horse has no chance. Up until 2 races ago, he was running in claiming races. He ran in the ungraded Federico Tesio stakes. With a rail trip and a 1/2 mile in a pedestrian 48-4/5ths, he was backing up in the stretch to have choked in the final sixteenth to finish a tiring 3rd. That effort got him a speed rating of 80. His owners will be able to say "We ran in the Preakness"....just plug in the word "last" after the word "ran".

13. Rachel Alexandra- Calvin Borel (8/5): The super-filly tests the boys. Some say the extreme outside post hurts. I think it helps. She won't get bounced around and Calvin Bo-rail will find a way to keep her out of trouble before he slips up the rail with her. Her last 4 speed ratings are 100, 103, 101, 108. All came with hand-rides. She's never been shown the whip. On the negative side, she's had 4-6 weeks rest between races and has never run back with only 2 weeks rest. That being said, she's a deserving favorite and her sire, Medaglia D'Oro, guarantees speed and stamina. The filly allowance of 5 lbs (121 vs. 126) is a factor in her favor. Very dangerous.

The Bets:

$1 Exacta #5, #8, #13 over #2, #3, #5, #8, #11, #13 (total $15)

$1 Triple: #5, #8, #13 with #2, #3, #8, #11 with #5, #8, #13 (total $20- I think--I suck at math)

$5 WPS #5 (total $15)

$5 WPS #8 (total $15)

$2 W #11 (total $2)

Total bet: $67

We're not taking the $210 bath we took in the Derby.

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

The Aftermath....

2009-05-03T16:23:00.002-04:00

Congratulations to jockey Calvin Borel (Bo-rail) on a masterful ride on 50/1 Mine That Bird. It was pretty obvious that Borel was elated at his improbable win. He is a truly American story. A hard scrabble life that has now reaped him rewards he thought never achievable. It is so nice to see someone who truly LOVES his job. My hat's off to him.

Now to the post-mortem. Once again, the luckiest horse wins the Derby because of too large a field, the weird positioning of the starting gate which only serves to encourage a roller-derby start, and a heavy muddy track that proved tiring in the ridiculously swift fractions set yesterday. The field was then helped by the unfortunate scratch of I Want Revenge who developed heat in an ankle and was properly withdrawn so as not to imperil the horse. A very humane and gutsy call by the connections of I Want Revenge. Of course, my handicapping fully included I Want Revenge as part of the pace scenario. I was expecting him to somehow get in the clear and be 4 or 5 lenghts off the front end. With the scratch, the complexion of the race changed.

You could handicap the race 1,000 times and there is no way you could make a logical case for a victory by Mine That Bird. The way he won makes me think that even if I Want Revenge had not scratched, we would have had the same outcome. Horses, like humans, have their good days and their bad days. Obviously, Mine That Bird had his best day on a day that mattered. For the others, bad luck intervened.

Freisan Fire, the post-time favorite, got the worst of it when he was soundly bumped on both sides, grabbed a quarter and suffered a gash that bled all through the race. You could tell the horse was in some measure of distress as he had his head sideways and was not making up ground. The horse was being evaluated today to determine how serious the injury is and to make sure no infection sets in.

Join In The Dance set a ridiculous fast pace, going 22-4/5 for the opening quarter in a mile and a quarter race. Of course, there were plenty others dumb enough to keep him company. As the field turned for home, the front end was inhaling fumes which allowed tired horses to drift out and the rail opened up for Calvin Bo-rail. The rest was history.

Pioneer of the Nile turned in an excellent effort given he had never raced on dirt and he was part of the suicidal speed duel. He may be the real deal and is a dangerous Preakness horse. Papa Clem & Musket Man fared quite well themselves.

So, we'll wait 2 weeks for an honest horse race at Pimlico called the Preakness.

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

Derby Day

2009-04-30T19:43:00.002-04:00

Well, we're just under 48 hours to Derby post time. The weather will be a factor as there is a 50% chance of showers on Friday and a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms on Derby day. We may not get a fast track and I have factored that into my "analysis".

As I say every year, the Derby is truly THE trip race of each year. In too big a field, the best horse doesn't necessarily win; the victory usually goes to the luckiest horse. If the field were limited to 12, we'd have an honest horse race; but, I don't think I'll ever see that.

Another pet peeve is not coupling horses with the same owner & trainer. West Side Bernie and Atomic Rain should run as an entry as should Regal Ransom and Desert Party. It's not fair to the betting public to have them try to figure out which horse is going to be sent. And now, my thoughts:

1. West Side Bernie- Last win came in the Ky. Cup Juvenile, a Grade 3 race for 2 year olds run last September over the synthetic track. Since then, has run against some of today's entries. West Side Bernie's stablemate Atomic Rain will likely set a lively pace to set things up for this closer. However, this horse's speed figures suggest there would have to be a complete collapse on the front-end for West Side Bernie to have a chance. Don't be fooled by the 2nd to I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial. Despite a pedestrian pace in a field of mediocrities (except for I Want Revenge), West Side Bernie couldn't close the sale. Finally, a closer in post position 1 is the kiss of death.

2. Musket Man- his last 3 races have been good. He scored his highest speed rating in his last race, the Illinois Derby which he won. Therein is the problem. The victory was such a dramatic improvement that this horse has "bounce" written all over him. Now, if the Illinois Derby wasn't a fluke, Musket Man looms an upset possibility.

3. Mr. Hot Stuff- Never raced on dirt with his only victory being a maiden win just 3 races ago. His breeding screams turf. Pass.

4. Advice- Stone closer who needs a fast pace to be able to close into. His lone dirt start was dismal. His victory in the Lexington was over a synthetic track and it was visually impressive as he closed from dead last in a field of 11 to win by a length. However, when you look at the fractions for that race, the front end totally collapsed and Advice was able to take advantage. He has yet to break 100 in his speed ratings and many in this field have their 100 or better. Can't see him sneaking into the top 4.

5. Hold Me Back- Lone dirt try at Aqueduct saw him defeated by 14 lenghts. Hold Me Back is a different animal on synthetic tracks. His breeding suggests a good turf horse. I don't think this horse will take kindly to dirt.

6. Freisan Fire- Last 3 races have been impressive. He seems to do just what he needs to do in order to win. He has raced exclusively on dirt and handled a sloppy track well. His A.P. Indy breeding suggests distance won't be a problem. He has had a 7 week layoff which is a bit of a concern; but, a 57 seconds 5 furlong work this past Monday was sensational. Is he ready to fire? or was the work too fast? Freisan Fire has the look of a winner. The pick.

7. Papa Clem- Has done his best with Rafael Bejarano who gets the mount. Set the pace in the Louisiana Derby (his only try on a sloppy track at a mile and a sixteenth) and tired in the stretch to get 2nd. He followed that up with a nice score in the Arkansas Derby. He got a great speed figure that day. However, when you look at his races, he follows a good speed rating with a mediocre one and that in & out form concerns me. But, I still think Papa Clem has the look of a live longshot and may be worth a stab at a price.

8. Mine That Bird- Looked terrific at Woodbine on the synthetic track. When switched to dirt, mediocre results. High speed rating of 92 has him in some mighty deep water. For bird lovers only.

9. Join In The Dance- We certainly won't be joining him in a victory dance because this "distance challenged" horse just cannot get a mile and a quarter. A victory would pay a boxcar price. Good chance for last place.

10. Regal Ransom- One of 2 Godolphin Stable entries, the other being Desert Party. Both should have been coupled. Caught a favorable pace in his last race in Dubai. 2 good workouts at Churchill Downs. How will the trip affect him? Traditionally, overseas speed figures are higher than those assigned in the U.S. Don't see him getting a relaxed pace. Pass.

11. Chocolate Candy- Seems to be peaking at the right time with him knocking on the door of a triple speed figure. That being said, he has exclusively raced on synthetic tracks and it is a crap shoot if he'll take to dirt in a racing situation. His last 3 starts were in fields of 7,6 and 7 respectively and 20 is a whole new ballgame. Even with veteran jockey Mike Smith getting the mount, seems up against it.

12. General Quarters- Maybe it's been the sentimental hype about 75 year old trainer Tom McCarthy; but, I like this horse's chances. I consider him a live longshot. He does have a triple digit speed figure and his racing style is that of a grinder. He's always mid-pack in large-ish fields and this is a horse that could pick up the pieces with luck.

13. I Want Revenge- Since switching to dirt, this animal has been a totally different horse. I witnessed him in the Gotham stakes where he drew away by 8 lenghts with ease under young 19 year-old Joe Talamo. I witnessed the Wood Memorial where I Want Revenge literally walked out of the starting gate, spotting the field at least half a dozen lenghts. Talamo did not panic and raced at the back of the pack. At the far turn, he made contact with the field and began weaving his way through. In mid-stretch, Talamo tried to get through a seam and got through at the last minute to post a 1-1/2 length win. It was impressive. It will do both horse and jockey well that they faced and overcame adversity. I wish the odds were more favorable; but, you leave this horse out of your bets at your own peril. Based on his current form, he will be in the top 3.

14. Atomic Rain- Will run like an atomic bomb. His name is speed and he will try to go as far as he can to set it up for his stablemate West Side Bernie (see #1). Another candidate to finish last.

15. Dunkirk- 3 lifetime starts and 4-1 odds make this horse a bad betting proposition. Yes, he's shown talent, finishing 2nd to Quality Road who withdrew from the Derby due to injury. But, even the great Curlin finished 3rd in the Derby. If Dunkirk somehow floats up to 10-1 or so, then you might want to put a few bucks on him. Demand value.

16. Pioneer of the Nile- 4 straight victories over synthetic tracks. Does just enough to win and has posted excellent speed ratings. His sire, Empire Maker, suggests this horse will get the distance and take to the mud. Concerns: Don't think he'll handle dirt well, has been running in small fields, outside post position. Seems nuts to toss out a horse with such a good record; but, I'm tossing him out.

17. Summer Bird- His owner and trainer will be able to say one day "we had a horse in the Derby", that's all.

18. Nowhere to Hide- His lone win was breaking his maiden, has been awful since. This horse may hide, but, not with my money.

19. Desert Party- the other half of the Godolphin entry which is running uncoupled from Regal Ransom. Won the Sandford at Saratoga as a 2 year old on a muddy track as the 4/5 favorite. Hugged the rail and romped home by 4 lenghts to post a 100 speed figure. Followed that up a month later with a 6th place finish in the Hopeful, beaten by 10 lenghts. Puzzling. Shipped off to Dubai where he has a decent record. His breeding by Street Cry and Tabasco Cat suggest speed and stamina. Workouts have been impressive and I believe this is the half of the Godolphin entry that is truly going to be sent. Interesting that owner/trainer left regular rider, Frankie Dettori, behind and went with Ramon Dominguez. May press a hard pace...and may last. Can't ignore him at 15-1.

20. Flying Private- As recently as 4 races ago, this horse was running in claiming races. Got a suck-up 2nd on the synthetic track in the Lanes End, which got him just enough earnings to back his way into this race. For D. Wayne Lukas fans only. A win would prompt the headline "Mule Wins Kentucky Derby".

My bets:

$10 WPS- #6 -Freisan Fire

$5 WPS- #13- I Want Revenge

$2 WPS- #12- General Quarters & #19- Desert Party

$2 Win- #7- Papa Clem

$2 Exacta Part Wheel: #6- Freisan Fire & #13- I Want Revenge over #6- Freisan Fire, #7- Papa Clem, #12- General Quarters, #13- I Want Revenge, #19- Desert Party

$1 Triple Part Wheel: #6,#13 with #6,#7, #12, #13, #19 with #6, #13

$1 Superfecta Part Wheel: #6, #13 with #6,#7,#12, #13, #19 with #6, #13 with #2, #6, #7, #12, #13, #19

Good Luck! May the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

Friesan's on Fire

2009-03-15T20:40:00.002-04:00

4 major prep races this weekend and Friesan Fire is well positioned to be the Derby favorite.

In the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby run yesterday at a mile and a sixteenth, favorite Hello Broadway (2/1-Eibar Coa) stalked the pace set by 135/1 longshot Perfect Bull and looked like a threat at the 3/4 pole before flattening out to finish a dismal 7th. No excuses for the favorite given parade-like fractions of 24, 48-2/5ths and 1:12-2/5ths. 2nd choice, the 5/2 General Quarters ran last and closed belatedly to pass tired rivals and finish 5th. We can excuse his lacklustre finish given the slow fractions. The third choice in the wagering at nearly 6/1 was Musket Man (Daniel Centeno up) ran mid-pack, then faded to next to last before making one strong, sustained run to get up by a neck over 35/1 longshot Join In The Dance. I don't think the Derby winner was in this race.

At Oaklawn Park, the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes was run featuring the much-heralded Old Fashioned who was sent off as the prohibitive 2/5 choice under Ramon Dominguez. Old Fashioned suffers from the "Big Brown" problem: the horse must have an outside post to do well. Saddled with post position 1, Old Fashioned got suckered into a suicidal speed duel with 6/1 Silver City. After cutting fractions of 22-2/5ths and 46 flat, both horses were sucking wind at the head of the stretch. That gave 56/1 longshot Win Willy the chance to circle the field from last to score by 2 widening lengths. Unless the connections of Old Fashioned can figure out a way to get their horse to rate, he will be an "also ran" in the Derby. A disappointing finish.

At Santa Anita, the San Felipe Stakes (Grade 2, 1-1/16th miles), drew a small field of 6 over the "all weather" track. The highly regarded Pioneer of the Nile was sent to the post as the overwhelming 1/4 favorite and did not disappoint; although, the fractions were pretty pedestrian and the competition was what you might find in an allowance race. Until I see the horse dominate rivals on dirt, I'm skeptical.

The real show of the weekend was at the Fair Grounds in Louisiana where the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby was run. 2/1 favorite, Friesan Fires (Gabriel Saez up) took off in the sloppy stretch under a hand-ride to score by over 7 lenghts at the wire. 2/1 was a true gift! Papa Clem (Rafael Bejarano) was sent off at 5/1 and cut the fractions over a very sloppy track but could not compete with the winner; although, he did hold off the late running Terrain (8/1 under Julien Leparoux). Giant Oak, Flying Pegasus, Uno Mas and Patena finished 4th, 6th, 7th and 8th respectively. None of them really fired and you wonder if they just didn't care for the mud.

So, right now, Friesan Fire has won on fast tracks, around one turn, at 7 furlongs, on a sloppy track, at a mile and a sixteenth and looks like the real deal. Hopefully, luck remains with him to stay healthy and bring us our just rewards on the first Saturday in May.

May the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

The Gotham

2009-03-08T19:28:00.002-04:00

Move over Haynesfield, the new star in town is I Want Revenge who shipped east off the synthetic tracks and pulled away under jockey Joe Talamo to score by 8-1/2 widening lenghts. Sent off as the 2nd choice at 3/1, I Want Revenge stalked 2/1 favorite, Mr. Fantasy (Alan Garcia, up) as Mr. Fantasy tired through the lane. 7/2 third choice, Imperial Council, under Rajiv Maragh, closed strongly to just nip Mr. Fantasy for the place spot. No one was going to catch I Want Revenge.

Haynesfield was sent off at 5/1, despite having won his last 3 starts; however, all wins came over the Aqueduct winter track and against suspect competition. Being the high weight at 120 lbs. did not help. Haynesfield was never really a factor, even though he moved up to 5th after 3 quarters in 1:12-3/5ths just 4 lengths off the leader. However, he proceeded to flatten out beating just one horse, 82/1 Giant Ryan who just didn't belong.

The connections of I Want Revenge were so impressed with his dirt debut that they've already committed to the April 4th Wood Memorial. Looks like the real deal.

May the horse be with you.

Racetrack Lenny

Let The 2009 Games Begin

2009-02-14T20:38:00.005-05:00

The prep race season has begun in anxious anticipation of the 2009 Derby on May 2nd. Gulfstream Park has had the Grade 3- Holy Bull Stakes at a mile and an eighth and the Grade 2-Hutcheson Stakes at 7 furlongs. The Fair Grounds has had its Grade 3- Risen Star Stakes at a mile and a sixteenth and Aqueduct has had its ungraded Whirlaway Stakes at a mile and a sixteenth. Let's take them in order.

1/30/09- The Hutcheson drew a small but competitive field of 6 with Hello Broadway being sent off as the 2/1 favorite. Under Edgar Prado, Hello Broadway cut fractions of 23-3/5 and 46 flat before being overtaken in the stretch by Capt. Candyman Can the 5/2 second choice under Julian Leparoux. Capt. Candyman Can looked good drawing away to win by a lenght and a half giving evidence that he wanted more than 7 furlongs. It was a useful race. A disappointment was New York's own Break Water Edison sent off at 5/2 under Alan Garcia. While settling in mid-pack throughout the race, when it came time to run, Edison shined like a 10 watt light bulb, finishing last beaten better than 10 lenghts.

1/31/09- The Holy Bull saw the much anticipated Danger To Society sent off at 9/5 under Robby Albarado. Danger To Society posed no danger to the 6 horses that finished ahead of him in a field of 10. He just never fired. 5/2 second choice West Side Bernie under Elvis Trujillo closed well to be 3rd; however, with a half in nearly 48 seconds, there wasn't a hot enough pace to run into. I'm still not sold on him; but, will watch his next start. The also oft mentioned Beethoven under Calvin Borel raced 3rd most of the way and just flattened out in the strecth to finish a non threatening 4th at 5/1 odds. Given the sluggish pace and the horse being a stalker, this was a disappointing result and it may have been due to his "needing a race". Let's see how he does in his next start and hope he doesn't draw post position 10 again. Ooops, forgot to mention the top two: Saratoga Sinner won by 3 parts of a length at 12/1 while Bear's Rocket got 2nd at 33/1. I suspect the owners of these longshots have Derby fever already.

2/7/09- The Whirlaway Stakes run over the inner winter track at beautiful Aqueduct saw 2/5 favorite Haynesfield romp to win by over 6 lenghts in front every step of the way under Ramon Dominguez. 7/2 second choice Peace Town (out of Peace Rules) prompted the pace but quickly wilted in the lane to finish 5th in a field of 6. An impressive win by Haynesfield against a lackluster field. We'll wait to see how he does against real competition.

2/7/09- The Risen Star was the race where we may have seen a potential Derby winner. A large field of 13 competitive horses proved to be excellent experience for the cavalry charge in May. Second choice Friesan Fire under Gabriel Saez stalked the pace 4th before swinging to the outside at the top of the stretch to prevail by 2 widening lengths at a good clip. 2/1 favorite Giant Oak under Edgar Prado was full of run but had nowhere to go after an awful trip. He was steadied twice, got shuffled back to 11th and managed to finish 5th after the rail opened up way too late. Giant Oak is eligible to improve. New York's Flying Pegasus was dismissed at 10/1 and took an overland journey to finish a strong 2nd. For those of you who relish longshots, Code of Honour was looking to pull off a colossal upset at 243/1--yes, two hundred forty three to 1. He held 2nd until the top of the stretch when he plummeted to last after prompting a fast pace.

The Derby Future Wager Pool 1 is now open and many of the horses named above are on the list. Beethoven: 15/1. Capt. Candyman Can: 10/1. Flying Pegasus: 30/1. Freisan Fire: 12/1. Giant Oak: 15/1. Haynesfield: 50/1. Hello Broadway: 50/1. West Side Bernie: 50/1. The current favorite at 5/2 is "all other 3 year olds". Considering that a "field" horse has won the Derby 4 out of the last 10 years, the "field" bet seems safe enough; but, I'm putting some money on Freisan Fire, Giant Oak & West Side Bernie.

Good luck, may the horse be with you!

More Brown Fallout

2008-06-22T12:39:00.002-04:00

Now that we're two weeks past the Belmont Stakes, the "blame game" has settled down because there are other distractions taking people's attention.

It didn't take long for the owner to blame the trainer; the trainer to blame the jockey; and the jockey blamed the weather, and, and, and.......

Big Brown's connections have pointed him to the Haskell Handicap at Monmouth Park on August 3rd. Michael Iavarone of IEAH Stables said: "We'll race in the Haskell because Saratoga is so hot & humid and Monmouth being on the Jersey Shore is a lot cooler". Puhleeeze. The Haskell generally turns out to be a "stand out" horse racing against a few Monmouth regulars--with maybe another or two legitimate contenders coming down. It is not what the Haskell used to be. I'll get some heat for this; but, in my mind, the Haskell should be downgraded in class. It truly is not a Grade 1 stake race. Owner Iavarone may not have been to Monmouth too many times during a heat wave. It can be just as oppressive--perhaps even more so than Saratoga.

A few facts are clear: Except for his 1st race, Big Brown miraculously drew the outside post in his races except for the Belmont. The horse was hard to rate needing to be on or close to the lead--in the clear. This meant the horse always raced wide (in the 3 or 4 path) and never, ever took turns well--always veering to the outside. You never saw Big Brown race along the rail. That's a training issue and it cost the horse plenty on June 7th. In addition, the fact that the horse had not been administered his steroid, Winstrol, had to have something to do with his form reversal. Finally, let's not forget that up until June 7th, the warmest day had gotten to 80 degrees with low humidity. On Friday, June 6th, the weather was showery and the high temperature was 67 degrees. On Belmont day, the high temperature was a record-breaking 96 degrees with oppressive humidity. Some animals, like humans, have a hard time quickly acclimating to that type of temperature change. Case closed.

Now we move on to see if in the Haskell, Big Brown can prove the Belmont was a fluke--or not.

May the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

The Agony of De-Feet

2008-06-08T14:58:00.003-04:00

The racing gods do not like owners/trainers that like to brag and consider a victory a "foregone conclusion". The IEAH Stable and Dick Dutrow are having a dish of crow today...a dish best served cold.

For as much as racing fans wanted to see a Triple Crown yesterday, they were sorely disappointed when Big Brown threw in an absolute clunker of a race in finishing last in the Belmont Stakes. He was eased in the stretch by jockey Kent Desormeaux and in the official chart of the race, they couldn't estimate how many lengths Big Brown lost by--one word said it all: "distanced".

The headline award goes to New York Newsday which read: "Burned At The Stakes". In my 37 consecutive years of going to the Belmont, I can't remember the last time the weather was as hot, humid and oppressive as it was yesterday. There was no way to get cool and you needed to drink a lot of water because sweat just poured off you even sitting still. With spring temperatures having been cooler than normal right up until Friday (when the high as 63), the emergence of the "dog days of August" on June 7th may have proven to be Big Brown's undoing.

Even though Big Brown had suffered a quarter crack to his hoof, the crack was healing nicely and his handlers applied an acrylic patch to make sure the crack didn't get worse or that dirt would get into the crack. I really would like to believe that the owners/trainers would not have risked their horse if they didn't think he was 100%. Why? Because they already have a $50 MILLION stud deal and they were not going to mess around with risking that money by having their horse get hurt.

On paper, the only horse that was going to give Big Brown a run for the money was Casino Drive the Japanese import who ran a huge race in Belmont's Peter Pan stakes 3 weeks ago. Casino Drive showed a Beyer speed rating of 107 which is right up there with Big Brown. Casino Drive's jockey in the Peter Pan was none other than Big Brown's rider, Kent Desormeaux. Desormeaux had publicly stated that that was the one horse he feared.

Earlier this week, Casino Drive must have stepped on a stone or some other hard object and bruised his left rear hoof. The owner/trainer monitored the bruise and the bruise was showing heat--an indication of a possible infection. They began treating the horse with antibiotics; but, the trainer/owner did not think it wise to run Casino Drive at anything less than 100% so as to avoid any injury or discomfort to the horse. In major stake races, trainers have up to 4 hours before post time to call the track stewards and racing secretary to declare the scratch. Up until the scratch got announced yesterday, Casino Drive was a solid 9/2 second choice in the wagering. When they announced the scratch at the track, it literally had the audience gasp. They had wanted to see the test between the two horses; but, it was not to be. My hat goes off to Casino Drive's owner and trainer for making the right call in doing what was right by the horse instead of opting to take any chances. Believe me, they had to be bitterly disappointed because they traveled 7,000 miles from Tokyo pointing Casino Drive to the Belmont. I hope they decide to keep him in the U.S. and have him run in some of the summer classics at Saratoga.

With the scratch of Casino Drive, there wasn't a person at the track that didn't think Big Brown would be wearing the crown. Why? The lone speed in the race was an animal named Da'Tara who had finished 2nd in the Barbaro Stakes at Pimlico on May 17th and earned his best speed figure yet--a 92. A 92 speed rating versus Big Brown's 114 would mean Da'Tara would be in the 212 area code while Big Brown was in the 516 area code. It wouldn't even be close. The rest of the field were a bunch of plodders--all closers who would all try to pass the "front runners" at the end. Of all the closers, the only horse you could really make a case for an upset was Denis of Cork. Big Brown got sent off at a generous 30 cents to the dollar. With the scratch of Casino Drive, Denis of Cork became the 7-1 second choice. A few surprises in the wagering: Tale of Ekati got sent off as the 3rd betting choice at 14-1 having had 2 victories at Belmont Park. He was the "horse for the course". The closers out of the Preakness- Macho Again and Icabad Crane were both sent off at 17-1. The Belmont also drew a maiden horse- Guadalcanal who should have been 1,000-1 and somehow was sent off at 25-1. The controlling speed in the race, Da'Tara got dismissed as the longest shot in the field at 38-1.

In the post parade, the fans were wildly cheering Big Brown and Kent Desormeaux acknowledged the applause with a wave of his hand. Big Brown looked pretty relaxed to me and I thought he so outclassed his competition that the question would be how many lengths he would win by. When the gate opened, Da'Tara came out like a shot out of a cannon and immediately went to the front. Big Brown at the rail got away second as Tale of Ekati came away third. Kent Desormeaux let Tale of Ekati overtake him and get into 2nd position in order for Desormeaux to get Big Brown out into the clear in the 3 or 4 path off the rail--his customary position. As the field circled the clubhouse turn and made its way onto the long Belmont backstretch, Da'Tara had established a tenuous one length lead with Tale of Ekati 2nd by a length and Big Brown settled into 3rd just biding his time. There was a gap of 5 lengths to the plodding Anak Nakal and then a gap of a dozen lengths to the other 5 closers with Denis of Cork being the last of them all.

The fractions for the race were sensible. 23-4/5ths for the opening quarter and 48-1/5th for the half mile. The field raced this way until the far turn. At that point, Da'Tara was still in front and had now opened up by 2 lengths and you could see that Tale of Ekati was starting to struggle to keep pace. Big Brown was still on the far outside and fans were wondering when would Kent Desormeaux say "go". However, you could see on the infield screen how hard Kent Desormeaux was hand-urging Big Brown to go and Big Brown was just throwing his head left and right fighting his jockey's instructions. At that point, I turned to my 3 friends Les, Jerry and Kyle and told them- no Triple Crown today. Belmont's track announcer Tom Durkin said it all when he said "Big Brown is laboring and is not responding". The crowd was now getting silent. The unthinkable was about to happen. Big Brown was not only going to lose, he was going to lose big.

At the top of the stretch, jockey Alan Garcia opened up 5 lengths with Da'Tara who had plenty left in the tank given the sensible pace for the mile and a half race. Anak Nakal had momentarily taken 2nd with Macho Again looming on the outside 3rd and then a gap of about 6 lengths and Denis of Cork had re-connected with the field and was coming up the rail 4th. Big Brown went very, very wide on the turn and was now 5th and dropping back steadily. Kent Desormeaux did the right thing and began to ease the horse as there was no point going to the whip. Why abuse the horse when it's crystal clear he isn't going to win? I applaud Kent for being kind because he could have used the whip out of frustration that he would not win the Triple Crown. Desormeaux showed real class.

At the finish, Da'Tara was still in front by 5 lengths but he was drifting to the middle of the track, a sure sign of a tired horse; however, he struggled across the finish line 1st and win the 140th Belmont in 2:29-3/5ths--one of the slowest Belmont Stakes in history. Denis of Cork took 2nd by 3 lengths while Anak Nakal and Ready's Echo dead-heated for 3rd. The crowd was in shock. The impossible had happened. Big Brown got soundly beaten--by a field he should have totally dominated. What went wrong?

My theory is the horse did not react well to the heat and humidity. Some horses relish the heat; others don't. Was the hoof an issue? Maybe; but, it seemed like Big Brown was jogging fine which he couldn't do if he were lame. When Big Brown struggled to the finish line last, you could see he was "lathered up" which is a tell-tale sign of a horse who has spent a lot of energy. Obviously, something went wrong because his performance was such a reversal of form that it was just too bad to be true. While there had been some question as to whether he could get the mile and a half distance, the field he was facing was so inferior that even a tiring Big Brown would still win.

Owners and trainer will go over every inch of the horse to determine what went wrong; but, I think 96 degrees, high humidity and no so much as a breeze yesterday proved to be Big Brown's undoing.

Well, history got made...not the kind you want to see. So, we now go into the 31st year of a Triple Crown drought and we'll start seeing which 2 year old begins racing at Saratoga this summer might become the next contestant for the Triple Crown.

Until next time,

Racetrack Lenny

Triple Crown

2008-06-07T08:06:00.002-04:00

I really do want to see a Triple Crown-we've waited 30 years, I just wish trainer Rich Dutrow wasn't such a bumptious braggart! Poor Big Brown having to listen to Dutrow's blathering.

Oh well, you will not pay your kids' college tuition betting on Big Brown who already is 1-9 in the wagering. With the hoof problem and hot, humid weather, we'll see if we can make a few bucks.

I'll box Denis of Cork, Macho Again and Tale of Ekati in an exacta and triple box. I will also put those 3 horses underneath Big Brown in an exacta as a "saver wager". Any exacta with Big Brown on top will pay peanuts. In the early wagering, a Big Brown/Casino Drive exacta would pay $3.20. Doesn't that get your motor running? NOT. Another saver bet is $2 show on each horse and hope Big Brown runs 4th or worse. That would guarantee triple-digit show prices. That would cost $18. If Big Brown wins or finishes in the money, you'll get back $6.30- so, not a total loss.

Let's see if history gets made.

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

"Don't Give Up Your Day Job" Preakness

2008-05-16T22:19:00.002-04:00

Of all the Triple Crown races, the Preakness is the one race that has been won by the most closers. Since Pimlico plays well to speed, the opening fractions tend to be fast and speed duels develop allowing for a "come from behind" type to take it all. Gate Dancer and Deputed Testamony come to mind.

Tomorrow's Preakness field is one of the sorriest fields I've ever seen in this race. Many of the horses entered are still eligible for "allowance non-winners of 1 race lifetime" conditions. But, bet we must or it wouldn't be fun.

Big Brown is likely to go off as one of the shortest-priced favorites to run this race. I'm expecting Big Brown will go off at 1/5 odds. Do you really want to bet $2 to get a $2.40 payoff? The problem is Big Brown towers over this field--on paper, at least. I just don't see anyone outright beating him. Big Brown is a very versatile horse. He can win being on the lead. He can win stalking the pace and he can win closing from behind. He is a legitimate contender for the Triple Crown after a 30 year drought. So, we'll bet this race as a triple play to try and get better than 1/5.

The race does get more interesting when you're handicapping for 2nd and 3rd place. Here's my play.

In the 2nd spot, I will use #6-Racecar Rhapsody; #8-Kentucky Bear and #12-Gayego.

I like Racecar Rhapsody because he is a legitimate one-run closer who has run well on dirt and has Beyer speed figures in the mid-90's (as a comparison, Big Brown's speed figures are between 106 and 109--get the picture?). If a suicidal pace develops, Racecar Rhapsody can close from far back to perhaps get a suck-up 2nd. Kentucky Bear is the "wise guy" horse. He comes in after only 3 lifetime starts and each race is an improvement. He tends to hang mid-pack and then make a move turning for home. His last 4 workouts have been sensational; so, I'm expecting a big effort--unless his workouts have already exhausted his energy. Gayego's run in the Ky. Derby was too bad to be true. When you view an isolated replay of the race, Gayego got a nightmare trip and finished 17th. However, owner & trainer looked over this horse with a fine tooth comb and couldn't come up with anything wrong. Gayego was eagerly eating the very next day and all signs show that he's ready. If he runs to what he did in the Arkansas Derby on April 12th--where he earned a speed figure of 103, he could make Big Brown work up a sweat to win.

Now for the 3rd spot: I'll put the 6, 8 and 12 in third; but, I'll also include #1- Macho Again; #2- Tres Borrachos and #13- Hey Byrn. Macho Again runs his best late and his last race got him his best lifetime speed figure. However, that was in a 7-1/2 furlong sprint and the flow of this race will be different. That being said, he has the rail and can save ground all the way into the stretch and then close to nail 3rd. Tres Borrachos (Spanish for "Three Drunks") is a horse on the improve showing speed figures of 71, 90 and 95. In the Arkansas Derby he set the pace, weakened to 4th in the stretch and then found another gear to regain the show spot. He did that at 37-1. So, expect him to be on or near the front and maybe he hangs on for 3rd. Finally, Hey Byrn has had some good races in allowance company getting speed figures of 90 and 97. His last effort was a win in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. While he beat a very weak field, he did it by stalking the pace and then edging away late. I like the fact that his trainer has put a one mile workout into him preparing him for the 1-3/16th mile Preakness.

The Bet:

$2 Trifecta: 7 with 6,8,12 with 1,2,6,8,12,13. Total bet $30.

May the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

Derby Post-Mortem

2008-05-04T12:58:00.002-04:00

I was going to do a humorous and cynical entry today; but, given the tragic ending of Eight Belle's life, I will honor her by keeping all humor out of this. My thoughts and prayers are with the connections of the wonderful filly who ran her heart out yesterday and did much better than I ever could have imagined.

Those that followed my advice yesterday at least salvaged an $11.60 show price on Denis of Cork who closed from 20th and last at the top of the stretch to be a rail-skimming 3rd at the end. At least it wasn't a total monetary loss for us.

Big Brown appears to be the real deal. After being so lightly raced and running such a grueling race in the Florida Derby AND drawing post position 20 for yesterday's Derby, I just didn't think Big Brown could do it. Well, he did it and with complete authority. If he stays healthy over the next 5 weeks, we may be looking at a Triple Crown winner. It's been 30 years since Affirmed; so, let's hope Big Brown can pull off the hat trick. Let's also congratulate jockey Kent Desormeaux who rode a masterful race yesterday. He kept Big Brown in the 5 path totally in the clear and had a snug hold on him to keep him relaxed. When Desormeaux gave Big Brown the signal, he took off--much like Street Sense last year. He was much the best.

Runner-up Eight Belles ran one hell of a race. She was in the top 5 all the way around the track running through some very demanding fractions and she did not wilt in the stretch. She fought valiantly on to hold the place spot safely. I didn't think she could do it; but, she did. As with any sport, there is always the potential for injury and yesterday's Derby was no different. I watched the race at Belmont Park and did not know what had happened to the brilliant filly until I got home and wanted to get the race replay on the internet. I pulled up nbc sports and the headline was "Eight Belles Put Down". I couldn't believe what I was reading. I was literally in tears. I've heard of bizarre injuries (Barbaro comes to mind); but, I've never heard of any horse breaking both front ankles. It's truly freakish. I guess we'll never know how that happened. I hope the trainer, owner and jockey don't blame themselves for this tragic ending. They are all in my prayers.

Ok, now I'll comment on my picks:

1. Pyro raced 18th most of the way and closed belatedly to get 8th place. Pyro was soundly bumped twice and was steadied getting into the far turn. At the top of the stretch, jockey Shaun Bridgmohan fanned 4 wide into the stretch; but, Pyro did not have a second gear and he just proceeded to pass tiring horses. Yes, Pyro did not get a good trip; but, now the Blue Grass debacle of 3 weeks ago doesn't seem as much of a fluke as it did. I'm sure owner and trainer will have Pyro totally looked over to see if there is a breathing problem or some other physical reason for this horse's sudden reversal of good form.

2. Visionaire- If any horse got a horrible trip, it was Visionaire. He stumbled leaving the gate and nearly unseated jockey Jose Lezcano. Lezcano was lucky to not have been thrown to the ground. As Visionaire was trying to get to mid-pack coming by the stands the first time, he was bumped twice and had to steady going into the first turn in very tight quarters. As he was making a move down the backstretch, Big Truck started making a move and Visionaire had to take up to avoid colliding with Big Truck. Visionaire once again began making a move on the far turn, got caught in traffic and had to steady for a 3rd time. At the head of the stretch, Lezcano fanned Visionaire 6 wide and made a very belated rally in the stretch to finish 12th. Visionaire just had nothing left with all his energy spent. Horses are not cars where you can accelerate and brake at will. My guess is Visionaire will be negatively affected by this race.

3. Denis of Cork- As usual, Denis of Cork walked out of the gate immediately being 20th and last. At the half mile pole, he was 25 lenghts off the lead. At the head of the stretch he had established contact with the field but was still last 20 lenghts off the lead and then jockey Calvin Borel angled to the rail and Denis of Cork closed powerfully to be third. The connections of Denis of Cork will continue to work on this horse's penchant for sleepwalking during the early stages of a race. However, this horse is a strong closer and a little more conditioning makes him a threat in both the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes.

4. Gayego- Perhaps the most disappointing performance of all. While I had been ready to dismiss Gayego in my handicapping because he had run only on synthetic surfaces, I was drawn to him when he won the Arkansas Derby in impressive style--on the dirt. So, I knew dirt would not be a problem. However, it looks like the size of the field, the noise and all the hoopla surrounding the race took its toll. Gayego was difficult to load into the gate and he was lathered up--never a good sign. It a sign of a horse whose anxiety level is high and a horse in this state expends a lot of energy. Gayego wasn't his usual self leaving the gate. He usually gets a speedy beginning but he came out sluggishly and jockey Mike Smith proceeded to get him into contention bringing him up to 7th as they entered the first turn. Gayego tried to bolt towards the fence coming out of the clubhouse turn and onto the backstretch and Mike Smith had to use his whip lightly to keep Gayego's mind on the race. As they were midway into the far turn, Gayego's early waste of energy took its toll as Gayego steadily faded to finish a weary 17th. I wouldn't dismiss him in the Preakness since the Preakness typically has 12 or fewer horses in it; but, if I were the trainer, I would try blinkers, a hood and ear plugs--much as was done for Gate Dancer many years ago.

5. Tale of Ekati- This horse is a closer and he was much closer to the pace than usual. Jockey Eibar Coa kept Tale of Ekati in a stalking mode during the early stages of the race running 7th most of the way before he began his bid at the top of the stretch. Unfortunately, Coa encountered all sorts of traffic problems; but, he did manage to close and get 4th. For those who used Tale of Ekati in their superfecta wagers, getting 39-1 odds on him was quite generous. Look for this horse in the remaining two Triple Crown events.

As I do each year, I will once again urge Churchill Downs to change the rules and allow only the top 12 horses in earnings a berth in the Derby. A 12 horse field produces much more consistency in terms of a horse running his/her best race. When you have a field of 20, there is much too much dependant upon luck than skill. Clearly, many horses capable of better were compromised by bad luck yesterday. It's time to end the cavalry charge nature of this race once and for all.

Again, my sympathy to the connections of Eight Belles on the tragic loss of their horse.

Racetrack Lenny

Mint Julep Soup

2008-05-02T19:04:00.002-04:00

If the Louisville weather forecast holds up, there will be a lot of slop on the track. Heavy showers and thunderstorms will add a new wrinkle to the mix. Most of the horses running tomorrow haven't raced on an "off" track. Well, you can't control the weather but you can control your bets.

I have keyed my interest amongst 5 horses: #9-Pyro; #8-Visionaire, #19-Gayego; #2 Tale of Ekati and #16-Denis of Cork. I have tossed out two of the more favored horses: #5-Eight Belles and the favorite #20-Big Brown. First, the toss outs:

1. Eight Belles: This filly is good; but, I don't think she's good enough to beat the boys in a cavalry charge. Eight Belles has had some sensational races against other fillies; however, when you look at the Racing Form, you'll see that she has run many of her opening quarter miles in 24 seconds or slower. That will not happen tomorrow. There is speed in the race and I wouldn't be surprised to see an opening quarter in 22-4/5ths or 23-1/5th seconds. If that happens, Eight Belles will be toast.

2. Big Brown: I particularly dislike trainers who boast all week of how their horse will "obliterate" the field. Richard Dutrow is already comparing his horse to Secretariat. Puhleeze. Yes, Big Brown has two sensational speed figures; however, let's remember the Derby will be only his 4th start (shades of Curlin last year). He broke his maiden last September, won an allowance race in March and then won the Florida Derby on March 28th. With such a light campaign and the fact that he has to come out of post position 20 is a very tall order. One thing in his favor, though, is he is sired by Danzig who loved the mud. In any case, I will try to beat Big Brown.

The Contenders:

1. Pyro: The early favorite to win it all lost favor when he finished a badly beaten 10th in the Blue Grass Stakes. However, that race was run on the polytrack (synthetic surface) at Keeneland and when you watch a replay of that race, you'll see that the horse never handled the surface. Why trainer Steve Asmussen decided to run Pyro in this race made me scratch my head. It didn't make sense. So, I am throwing that race out. Prior to the Blue Grass, Pyro had been in the money in EVERY race he ran. He's a strong closer and the Derby is loaded with speed. While I wish the trainer had selected a "name" jockey, Shaun Bridgmohan seems to truly fit this horse to a T and Pyro is my pick to win it all.

2. Gayego: Had raced on the West Coast on the polytrack and if it weren't for his impressive win in the Arkansas Derby, run on dirt, I may have tossed him out. However, the Arkansas Derby was an impressive win and he earned a 103 speed figure in the process. Gayego won stalking the pace which will come in handy tomorrow. So, if speed holds up tomorrow, Gayego is the speed horse you need to include in your betting.

3. Visionaire: This is a very live longshot. His speed figures are not impressive; but, this closer finds a way to get into the money in all but his last race. His last race was the Blue Grass and Visionaire showed a similar dislike of the polytrack as shown by Pyro. Visionaire's last race is a throw-out. The other thing I like about Visionaire is his win in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 8th. That race was run on a very rainy day with the track being a sea of mud. Visionaire relentlessly closed along the rail to get up and win by a nose over Texas Wildcatter. His speed figure in the mud was a 98; his best speed figure yet. Jockey Jose Lezcano really fits this horse well and I believe you'll see a big effort from Visionaire tomorrow.

4. Tale of Ekati: Beat War Pass in the Wood Memorial. Yes, they say it was the slowest win time for the Wood since 1952; however, the track was drying out from heavy rains earlier in the day and although the track was listed as "good", it was a heavy, tiring track and Tale of Ekati was all out to get by an exhausted War Pass. A similar effort tomorrow puts him in the thick of it.

5. Denis of Cork: Lightly raced colt who has raced and won at Churchill Downs. Has run and won in the slop. Picks up Calvin Borel as his jockey--the jockey who won last year's Derby aboard Street Sense. Borel is the leading rider at Churchill Downs and he can save ground at the rail and close in the stretch.

The Bets:

$5 WPS: #9 Pyro
$2 WPS: #8 Visionaire & #16 Denis of Cork

$2 Exacta: 8, 9, 16 with 2,8,9,16,19

$1 Trifecta Box: 2,8,9,16

$1 Superfecta: 8,9,16 with 8,9,16 with 2,19 with 2,19

Good Luck, may the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

B.C. Juvenile: The Jinx Returns!

2008-04-20T13:20:00.002-04:00

Well, Street Sense had been thought to erase the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Jinx for all time; but, it's baaacck!!!

Sadly, leading Derby contender War Pass, winner of the Breeder's Cup Juvenile last year, is out of the Derby--and possibly the Triple Crown picture. War Pass was discovered to have a fracture of his left front pastern and will need at least 60-90 days rest for the fracture to heal. The Bolton Clinic will be examining the injury to see if surgery might be an option. It is believed the injury may have occurred during the running of the grueling Wood Memorial several weeks ago.

Yesterday featured one major prep race leading up to the Derby- The Lexington Stakes run at Keeneland at a mile and a sixteenth over the all-weather polytrack. With no standout in the field, the fans bestowed lukewarm favoritism to Peruvian "wonder horse" Tomcito. Tomcito, sent off at 3-1 and ridden by Jorge Chavez, was not a factor during the race as he ran evenly to finish 6th, just 4 lengths off the winner. Without finishing in the money, Tomcito doesn't have the earnings he needs to draw into the Derby. Instead, it was a Todd Pletcher trainee, Behindatthebar, ridden by David Flores, who closed from next to last to win by a length at odds of just under 6-1. The win almost guarantees Behindatthebar a spot on May 3rd. The other two major Derby contenders ran up the track. Atoned, sent off as the 9/2 second choice, finished 8th while Salute The Sarge, sent off at 5-1, could do no better than 7th. Both are now in the "not enough earnings" category.

Once again, the synthetic polytrack played a role in the Lexington. Some horses just don't take to it and I'm amazed that trainers elect to race their Derby hopefuls on a surface not utilized on the first Saturday in May.

Well, just two weeks to go. May the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

Even Muddier

2008-04-13T16:47:00.002-04:00

Wow! If you were hoping that the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn would clear up the Derby picture yesterday, you came away disappointed.

The Blue Grass at a mile and an eighth over the sponge-like Polytrak saw even money Pyro (Shaun Bridgmohan up) finish 10th. He was a non-factor every step of the way. However, when you look at the fractions, there was nothing to close into. The opening quarter when just shy of 25 seconds with the half in 49 seconds--trotter-like. Monba an 8-1 shot with Edgar Prado aboard stalked the pace and won by a long neck. He was followed by another 8-1 shot, Cowboy Cal with John Velasquez up. Cowboy Cal led every step of the way except at the wire. 27-1 longshot Kentucky Bear, ridden by Jamie Theriot, got up for third. Derby hopeful Cool Coal Man, sent off at 6-1, ran third most of the way and then tired to finish 9th.

Polytrack surfaces suck! They make mediocre horses look like the next coming of Secretariat and it takes horses like Pyro and makes them look like maiden claimers. In my mind, you have to throw this race out for both Pyro and Cool Coal Man. Both have proven they are capable of much better on dirt and I was surprised that their connections decided to contest the Blue Grass over a sponge.

At Oaklawn, the race was also a mile and an eighth; but, it was run on dirt--like a real horse race should! The race was more formful as 2-1 favorite Gayego, Mike Smith up, stalked 37-1 Tres Borrachos to take the lead at the top of the stretch and prevail by 3 parts of a lenghth over 6-1 Z Fortune and the aforementioned Tres Borrachos who hung on for 3rd. Actually, Tres Borrachos had dropped back to 4th and came back again late to get the show spot. The race chart states that Tres Borrachos set a "moderate pace". Well, I don't know which race they were watching since the opening quarter went in 22-3/5ths and the half went in 46-3/5ths--that is a suicidal pace for a mile and an eighth. So, for Tres Borrachos to still be around at the end was quite impressive. Other Derby hopefuls: My Pal Charlie off at 7-1 finished 5th. Blackberry Road (Calvin Bo-rail up) closed belatedly from last to land 7th place.

From here, it looks like the first Saturday in May will make for an outstanding betting race.

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

Clear As Mud

2008-04-06T19:10:00.002-04:00

3 major prep races yesterday and no clarity emerging from those races.

Wood Memorial: Aqueduct's (New York) premier race drew a field of 9. I was there to watch the race which had been tough to handicap because the forecast had been for heavy rain. Instead, the rains came late Friday into Friday evening and the sun was out by 9 A.M. yesterday. By the time the Wood was run, the track had been upgraded to "fast"; however, by watching the winning times all day yesterday, the track should have been listed as "good" since the surface was really dull and was producing slow winning times. The Wood, run at a mile and an eighth, provided War Pass (Cornelio Velasquez up) a chance to atone for his dreadful finish in the Tampa Bay Derby where he finished last beaten 23 lengths. Sent off at 4/5, he got into a speed duel with Inner Light (Chuck Lopez up) whose only reason for being in the race was to act as a rabbit for his stablemate, Court Vision (Garrett Gomez up). War Pass & Inner Light raced nose to nose for 3/4 of a mile going the opening quarter in a suicidal 22-1/5 seconds. Despite that, War Pass looked like he might just pull it off. However, by the sixteenth pole, you could see that War Pass was getting leg-weary and was drifting out badly. That allowed 8-1 Tale of Ekati (Edgar Prado up), trained by Barclay Tagg to swing to the inside rail and close to defeat War Pass. Court Vision managed to close from far back to get 3rd. Of the other Derby contenders, only Giant Moon showed some interest late finishing 4th. Texas Wildcatter (Eibar Coa up) who lost the Gotham Stakes by the slimmest of noses was sent off as the 7/2 third choice and seemed like he was making a middle move on the far turn before he sputtered in the stretch finishing 8th of 9 horses.

Santa Anita Derby: My choice turned out to be the 9/5 favorite El Gato Malo (David Flores up). In a race that featured a lot of bumping, El Gato Malo never really fired and he struggled home a sorry 5th. Instead, it was 5/2 second choice Colonel John (Corey Nakatani up) who got the prize winning by a half-length at the very last jump. Jockey Richard Migliore almost pulled off the "wire to wire" upset with 6-1 Bob Black Jack.

Illinois Derby: This race was run at a mile and an eighth at Hawthorne and was billed as a horse race. Instead, a parade broke out. Favored Denis of Cork (Julian Leparoux up) was sent off as the even money favorite and proceeded to run 5th all the way through. In fact, from the start, the first 5 finishers never changed position--a truly unusual thing in racing. The race went to the unheralded Recapture The Glory (E.T. Baird up) at 15-1. The other 2 Derby hopefuls Z Humor at 9/2 and Atoned at 7/2 finished 3rd and 4th respectively in a rather dull effort.

So, no clear cut favorite for the Derby in my mind.

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

Florida Derby

2008-04-06T18:45:00.002-04:00

I got so busy last week between jobs that I didn't get to make a post last week; but, here goes.

The buzz at Gulfstream was that no horse entered in a mile and an eighth race or longer had never been won from an outside post. That fact pertains to Gulfstreams new track. In the Florida Derby last week, Big Brown (Kent Desormeaux up) drew the unfavorable post 12 yet was sent off as the 3/2 favorite. He beat the jinx and ran true to his odds with a commanding win in which he was drawing away with authority at the end. The race went in 1:48 flat which is pretty darn good. Peruvian wonder horse Tomcito (Jorge Chavez up) was dead last to the head of the stretch and closed well to get a non-threatening third. Not bad for his first U.S. showing; but, is he Derby caliber? I don't think so. Other Derby hopefuls in the Florida Derby included the 5/2 Elysium Fields (Eibar Coa up) who was racing 5th to the 3/4 pole and proceeded to steadily back-pedal finishing 11th--beating one horse- 59-1 longshot B.B. Frank. Majestic Warrior (Rene Douglas up) was sent off at 13-1 and raced near the back of the pack most of the way closing belatedly finishing 6th while passing tiring rivals. The buzz is that Big Brown will be the Derby favorite based off the Florida Derby; but, this has been an inconsistent year at best. Stay tuned.

May the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

The Bridge Jumpers!

2008-03-16T13:34:00.002-04:00

In races where there is an absolute standout on paper, I will usually pass up the race or bet $2 on every horse in the race to show, hoping the heavy favorite runs out of the money. For those who followed the latter strategy in the mile and a sixteenth Tampa Bay Derby yesterday, you were rewarded with a profit of $115!

On paper, War Pass, (Cornelio Velasquez up) figured to toy with his competition. His Beyer speed ratings were well above any of his competitors. In fact, his competition would be coming to the head of the stretch while War Pass was crossing the finish line. Well, the fans at Tampa Bay Downs certainly bought into the concept. Sent off as the prohibitive choice at 1-20, that's right, folks, a nickel to the dollar, the bridge jumpers began jumping when War Pass proceeded to run out of gas at the far turn and finish a mind-numbing last in the field of 7. He was beaten better than 20 lenghts. Obviously, a lot of attention will be devoted to War Pass in the coming days as it is really puzzling why this horse stopped so badly. In the meantime, the Barclay Tagg trained Big Truck (Eibar Coa up) made the most of his opportunity to prevail by a neck at 7-1 over the tiring Atoned (John Velasquez up) at 9-1. The show prices were $25.20; $27.80 and $76.40-- a nice reward for show bets.

The Rebel Stakes, also at a mile and a sixteenth, at Oaklawn Park provided a similar result. The 3-5 odds on choice, Z Fortune, (Garrett Gomez up) showed nothing in the race running an even 5th most of the way to finish 5th. Instead, it was local horse Sierra Sunset (Chris Emigh up) who stalked Sacred Journey (Calvin Borel up) to prevail at 4-1. Longshots King's Silver Son & Isabull rounded out the $1,105 trifecta.

The San Felipe Stakes at a mile and a sixteenth at Santa Anita Park proved to be the formful race of the three. Georgie Boy (Michael Baze up) stalked the pace at 7-5 and swung out in the stretch to just get up in the final strides over 7-2 Gayego (Mike Smith up). Speedball Bob Black Jack (David Flores up) cut the fractions and was able to keep the fractions sensible. Despite that, he still was running out of gas at the end showing he may need a bit more maturity or he just cannot get the distance.

That's all for now. Looks like Pyro is the Derby favorite at this juncture. More races to come.

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

Fog, Cloudy, Clear

2008-03-09T18:20:00.002-04:00

Yesterday's prep races put on display everything Mother Nature could throw at horses and more.

The Gotham Stakes (Grade 3) contested at a mile and a sixteenth at Aqueduct Race Track in New York caught the worse of it. The area had a major nor'easter that dumped up to 4 inches of rain. In between torrential downpours, there was dense fog in which you could not see any of the action. In fact, if you look at the chart of the race, all you see is the word "fog" thoroughout. Before the forecast for bad weather, Giant Moon, was expected to be the favorite. However, since the track was a sea of slop, the bettors went wild over Saratoga Russell whose previous race had been a 10+ length score in the slop at 6 furlongs. So, a horse that legitimately should have been about 6/1 to 10/1, got sent off the 8/5 favorite--even on the stretch out from 6 furlongs to the mile and a sixteenth. Visionaire, who had run third to Pyro last out, was dismissed as a 9/2 proposition because of the outside post position (post 10). Oh ye of little faith!

There were two things going against Saratoga Russell: 1. He had never been around two turns and never been beyond 6 furlongs; so, he had every right to regress and 2. His pedigree suggested a sprinter versus a distance runner. My hunch proved correct as Saratoga Russell, under Eibar Coa, managed to set the pace and then tire badly in the strecth to be defeated by better than 40 lenghts, OUCH! I boxed #3 Roman Emperor; #7, Texas Wildcatter and #10 Visionaire (despite rider Jose Lescano). Roman Emperor had run evenly last time out, had good "mud" breeding and I figured he just might get close enough to figure in the exactas. Texas Wilcatter is a Todd Pletcher trainee who loves to gawk at the crowd when racing. Pletcher added blinkers for this outing and I thought that would pay off. It nearly did as Texas Wildcatter literally came up a nose short to Visionaire. The exacta paid $84.50 proving that even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. Despite the fog, Visionaire was closing fast and I like to see that in a horse. Look for him in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.

Also run yesterday was the mile and a sixteenth Louisiana Derby (Grade2) at The Fair Grounds in Louisiana. This was a deeply talented field which included Pyro, Blackberry Road, Tale of Ekati, Majestic Warrior and J Be K. Of those, Pyro truly impressed. He showed another dimension yesterday by stalking the slow pace being set by longshot My Pal Charlie, who at 60/1 almost pulled off the upset, instead finishing 2nd. Pyro (Shaun Bridgmohan up), took over in mid-stretch and won by 3 lenghts going away. Blackberry Road, making his first start in a while raced an even 3rd most of the way and when the time came to get running, he could do no better than 4th. Very disappointing. Tale of Ekati, trained by Barclay Tagg, was not a factor, racing 7th most of the way and finishing 6th. Majestic Warrior, so impressive last year raced 5th most of the way and then flattened out to be a very non threatening 7th. J Be K was the horse being touted as the "wise guy" horse with every chance to improve. He prompted the pace and then stopped badly in the lane to finish next to last. Pyro seems to be the real deal.

Finally, Bay Meadows had its El Camino Real Derby (Grade 3) run at a mile and a sixteenth at Bay Meadows Race Track. Derby hopefuls Nikki's Golden Steed, Behind At The Bar, and Coast Guard ran. Only Nikki's Golden Steed (Jon Court up) managed to be on or near the lead to hold 2nd beaten by 62/1 longshot Autism Awareness. Behind At The Bar raced a dismal 7th all the way before coming on a bit at the end to take 5th place. Favorite Coast Guard (Aaron Gryder up) was a dreadful 8th showing nothing in the race.

Well, that's it for now. It's now wait until next week for the upcoming preps.

May the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

The Bad Cat

2008-03-02T18:42:00.002-05:00

El Gato Malo, Spanish for "The Bad Cat" turned out to be a bad cat in the Sham Stakes run at Santa Anita yesterday at a mile and an eighth. The race, run on the all-weather track, had two scratches. Both scratched horses were speed types; so, the race was now deprived of a legitimate pacesetter leaving limited chance for a closer like El Gato Malo. Ridden by jockey David Flores, El Gato Malo was sent off at 3/5, and was the victim of a paceless race. The quarter went in just shy of 25 seconds with a half in 50 seconds. When it came time for the real running to begin, the other Derby hopeful in the race, Colonel John, Garrett Gomez up, stalked the pacesetter, Victory Pete, and had enough left to hold off the late run by El Gato Malo, who was steadily gaining but running out of racetrack.

Meanwhile at Turfway Park in Kentucky, three Derby hopefuls ran in the John Battaglia Stakes run at a mile and a sixteenth on their all-weather track. Favorite Briarwood Circle, Patrick Husbands up, threw in a real clunker and was wide throughout finishing last. Big Glen, James Lopez up, sat mid-pack throughout, began making his move but had to steady when Halo's King began to back up. I don't think that cost Big Glen the win; but, it may have gotten him third had he not been impeded. The stewards did not flash an inquiry. Big Glen wound up finishing 4th. The other Derby hopeful, Your Round, ridden by Victor Lebron, was went off 7/2 and actually had a 2 length lead at the top of the stretch and was beaten by nearly 2 lenghts when longshot Absolutely Cindy went by to score at 19/1.

So, like last year at this time, the Derby picture is very fuzzy. We'll try to clear it up some next time.

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

Two Major Preps This Weekend

2008-02-24T19:24:00.002-05:00

Oaklawn Park started the prep weekend with the Southwest Stakes, a Grade 3 race run at one mile on the dirt for a purse of $250K. Favored Turf War (Calvin Borel up) showed nothing racing at the back of the pack and then offering a very mild rally into 7th before flattening out to finish 9th in a field of 11. Perhaps as his name suggests, he may be more at home on turf. The well-earned victory went to Denis of Cork (Robby Albarado up) who was the 9/2 third choice of the betting public. Sitting mid-pack through demanding fractions of 22-3/5ths, 45-1/5th, Denis of Cork commenced a strong rally at the 3/4 pole and was moving like a freight train by the top of the stretch. He scored by 2-1/4 lengths going away. Denis of Cork has stamped himself as a legitimate contender.

Meanwhile today at Gulfstream Park, War Pass (Cornelio Velasquez up) made his 2008 debut in a $60K allowance race, skipping the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. The allowance race run at a mile on the dirt saw War Pass sent off at 1/20 (yes, a nickel to the dollar) and he toyed with the short field of 5. The second choice was 9/1 and the exacta returned a paltry $2.60! When you win like this against inferior competition, it doesn't prove anything.

The Fountain of Youth, run at a mile and an eighth was a competitive affair with a $350K purse that attracted a full field of 12. Favored Monba (Edgar Prado up) at 7/2 put in a dismal performance finishing last while never a factor. Instead it was Cool Coal Man (Kent Desormeaux up) who got sent off at 7/1 who stalked the pace from 4th and had enough left to win by a hard fought 1/2 length. Another Derby hopeful Elysium Fields (Eibar Coa up) went off 8/1 and finished a strong 2nd. Court Vision (Garrett Gomez up), sent off at 4/1 closed from last to get a non-threatening third. The much touted Z Humor (Cornelio Velasquez up) went off at 14/1 and closed mildly to finish a very non-threatening fourth. Somehow, I don't think the Derby winner is coming out of this race.

That's it for now. May the horse be with you.

Racetrack Lenny

Bettor Beware!

2008-02-17T12:58:00.003-05:00

Ah, the Derby prep races! It's the annoying time of year when a Derby contender gets overbet and proceeds to put in a dull performance. You wonder sometimes if such performances should have been expected.

The Derby literally has thousands of horses nominated with only a maximum of 20 making it to the starting gate on May 3rd. When the race gets oversubscribed, entries are determined on the basis of earnings not races won. So, a contender may race in a $250,000 purse race, finish 3rd and earn more money than a horse running for a $25,000 purse and finishing 2nd. The bettor is left to decide if the Derby contender is going to be sent full-throttle or if it's a highly paid public workout. I treat those contenders as the latter for this reason: I would rather bet a middle priced longshot who is trying to get enough earnings to qualify than bet an "odds-on" favorite who will disappoint. In other words, hardly a man is still alive that paid the mortgage at 4/5.

Two races yesterday I believe prove the point. At Tampa Bay Downs, the Sam F. Davis Stakes was run at a mile and a sixteenth. This dirt race had a guaranteed purse of $200,000. Derby hopeful Z Humor, ridden by Garrett Gomez, was sent off as the 6/5 choice. The fractions were honest enough and Z Humor stalked the pacesetter, 24-1 longshot Honey Honey Honey, until the far turn when Z Humor took command and seemed to be on his way to an easy score. An easy score had the finish line been at the sixteenth pole. Z Humor ran out of gas and finished 5th beaten more than 5 lengths. The 5th place finish did get him $5,250 anyway. Since he has fairly high earnings, he is still a contender for the Derby; however, it appears this horse may be "distance challenged". Another Derby hopeful, Smooth Air, ridden by Manoel Cruz, sat 5th most of the way on the rail and when the time came for real running, he did make a mild gain to get third but was outkicked by both Fierce Wind and Big Truck. At least Smooth Air was sent off at 4-1 which made him playable.

Meanwhile at Gulfstream Park, The Hallandale Stakes was run on the turf at a mile and a sixteenth. Here the purse was $100,000 and Derby hopeful Cowboy Cal, John Velasquez up, was sent off as the prohibitive 1/2 favorite. Here, the fractions were very demanding (22-4/5ths, 46 flat) with Cowboy Cal out in front cutting those fractions. He was caught late by the other Derby hopeful Why Tonto ridden by Edgar Prado at almost 6-1. If you were a fan of the series "The Lone Ranger", you likely had the Cowboy/Tonto exacta. My question is: If you're prepping for the premiere dirt race in the world, why are you prepping on grass? In any event, I won't discount Cowboy Cal given his strong run up front. I am concerned that he may not be ratable--like Hard Spun last year. Why Tonto was impressive in that he stalked the fast pace and was pulling away at the end to score by a length and a half.

So, when handicapping the prep races, take a look at a horses earnings going into the race and make a judgment call as to whether the horse is running or merely exercising.

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

Off To The Races

2008-02-10T14:45:00.000-05:00

Congratulations to the New York Giants for their thrilling win in the Super Bowl. Their win ushered in the season I live for- the Triple Crown Races!

As in 2007, there appears to be a talented bunch of 3 year olds going into the prep race season. Pyro was a most impressive winner of the Risen Star Stakes, a Grade 3 race run at a mile and an sixteenth at the Fair Grounds in Louisiana. Sent off as the 4/5 favorite, Pyro under jockey Shaun Bridgmohan, looked hopelessly beaten at the three-quarter pole given the pedestrian pace of a 24-2/5ths for the opening quarter and 1:14-3/5ths for three quarters. Despite that, Pyro closed like a roaring freight train to win going away. He looked like he could have gone around one more time. It was impressive and it stamps Pyro as a major player.

Second choice, Z Fortune, (Garrett Gomez up), ran a good race by stalking the pace and taking command at the head of the stretch. Don't discount him. He lost because Pyro was clearly better and because I don't think Garrett Gomez ever saw Pyro coming.

Visionaire, the third place finisher, stalked the pace all the way but ran an even race and couldn't sustain a bid in the stretch despite the slow fractions.

Another Derby hopeful, Blackberry Road, under jockey Calvin Borel, was closing from far back; however, the rail never opened up for Calvin Bo-rail and Blackberry Road had to settle for a 5th place finish.

So, those 4 are truly in the mix and there are a lot of races to go. A new wrinkle to this year's handicapping mix is the surface horses will run on. With new "cushioned tracks" being used at several major racetracks around the country, many Derby hopefuls will train and/or race on those surfaces and the Derby may be their first time on dirt. Bettor beware! I'm always wary of betting a horse to do something he's never done before. We'll keep an eye out for you.

All for now, may the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

Alternate Blog

2007-03-17T21:43:00.000-04:00

You may also see Racetrack Lenny's alternate blog at the following:

http://prognosticationsonthesportofkings.blogspot.com/

We'll see how the spirit moves me.

Thanks to Bluegrass Mama for being much more of a tekkie!

Racetrack Lenny

Let The Games Begin

2007-03-04T15:19:00.000-05:00

It's that time of year again, the "run up" to the Run For The Roses. We begin the season with a $20 loss on the Fountain of Youth (Gr. 2) run at a mile and an eighth at Gulfstream Park.

Since one never knows who is going to be serious about winning Derby prep races, I decided to just put my toes in the water. I bet a $2 exacta box using NoBiz Like ShoBiz, Scat Daddy and Adore The Gold. I then went $2 WPS on Adore The Gold. I anticipated NoBiz and Scat Daddy getting into a speed duel and Adore The Gold making a run from mid-pack to run them both down. I still have a bad habit of betting a race very early and not letting the odds affect my thought process. I will have to do better to get this habit out of the way.

NoBiz Like ShoBiz, the expected favorite, was sent off at 3/5. I hate betting very short priced favorites, especially at this time of year. However, my bet was in and that was that. Scat Daddy went off at a very generous 5-1 and Adore The Gold got off at a juicy 9-1. The end result was Scat Daddy winning by a nose over Stormello who ran a super race. I threw Stormello out since I didn't think he could get the distance and because I have never been a big fan of Kent Desormeoux. Well, Stormello nearly pulled it off. Scat Daddy improved off his 3rd place finish in his last race and looked good doing it. NoBiz Like ShoBiz ran an even race and just didn't look as sharp as he did his last time out. His halo has been knocked off. As for Adore The Gold, he stalked in 2nd place most of the way, took the lead between calls and then tired in the stretch to miss by a length. Don't know if it was the distance or if he wasn't kept far enough off the pace. He deserves a second chance.

While the Derby prep races are fun to watch, they are tough to bet. You need to figure out who is going to really compete and who is really out for a glorified public workout. You also have to contend with several horses in a race trained by the same trainer and running uncoupled in the wagering. I hate to see that because you need to decide which one the trainer is really going to send. The game is tough enough. I know racetracks like to run as many betting interests as possible in order to maximize their revenue on exotic bets; however, horses trained by the same trainer should run as an entry- period.

So, at this time of the year, I just try to determine who I think can spring an upset--even if a modest one.

That's all for now. May the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

Finally Cash In--On A Show Bet!- Belmont Post-Mortem

2006-06-11T17:32:00.000-04:00

You handicap for a fast track or for a sloppy track, you never, ever think that you'd have to handicap for a windy track. That's what happened yesterday. Yes, the week long rain was over. In its wake came blue skies, unusually cool weather and a west wind that was gusting up to 40 mph. Since the Belmont oval is east-west, that meant horses going down the backstrecth were going into a strong headwind and coming down the stretch, they got a strong tailwind.

Speed was not holding up at Belmont yesterday because those going into the wind in quick fractions were tiring at the end making it heaven for closers. However, since the Belmont was the 11th race on the card and since each jockey had raced at least 1 race during the day, the jockeys knew what they would encounter on the backstetch and would act accordingly. The race would go one of 2 ways: Someone would set a slow pace and last to the end or someone would set a blistering pace and closers would hold sway. Closers held sway. Congratulations to Jazil on a terrific race and to 18 year old jockey Fernando Jara who rode a masterful race with his 1 run closer.

I expected High Finance to make the lead. I also expected Eibar Coa would slow things down. I figured an opening quarter of about 25 seconds and a half in 50 seconds or a bit slower. Instead, jockey Garrett Gomez uncharacteristically gunned Bob & John to the front. He was joined by Deputy Glitters in the middle of the track and the longest shot on the board, Double Galore, joined them on the outside. High Finance made a bee line to the rail and was sitting 4th, which I thought was exactly where I wanted him. Then came the kiss of death, the quarter time was 23 seconds flat. I began kicking myself for not having put a substantial bet on Jazil. Even though he was 12th at the quarter and 20 lengths from the front, the race was setting up nicely for him.

The top 3 (Bob & John, Deputy Glitters, Double Galore) continued their pressured pace and Deputy Glitters drifted out a bit into the 2 path. For reasons unknown, jockey Eibar Coa gunned High Finance through the opening at the rail to now be a clear 2nd. The half mile went in 47-1/5 seconds. At that point, I knew my bets were toast. In today's news, I heard that Bob Baffert instructed Garrett Gomez to go for the lead with Bob & John and try to steal the race. However, you steal a race when you put the field to sleep through soft fractions; you don't do it by sprinting for a mile and a half. Somebody, please buy a stop watch for Garrett, he needs one embedded in his head.

Once mid-way up the backstretch, Bluegrass Cat joined the fray and Steppenwolfer was much closer than usual. Jazil was still last a good 20 or so lenghts back. Then Jara gave Jazil a love tap and off to the races went Jazil. 3/4 of a mile in 1:12- a sizzling pace and Jazil was now weaving his way through traffic picking off horses one by one. By the middle of the far turn, Bluegrass Cat had taken the lead. The early leaders had been cooked in their speed duel and now it was the stalkers and closers turn to do some running. The contest went to Jazil who went by Bluegrass Cat at the top of the stretch and was never seriously threatened thereafter. Sunriver began his close along the rail but could not get the place from Bluegrass Cat. It was Sunriver finishing 3rd that allowed me to cash my first ticket of this year's triple crown--a $6.10 show price. I guess it's better than a sharp stick in the eye.

The fast fractions and the strong headwind set the race up in picture perfect form for a closer and Jazil was the closer that I really liked. However, I could have handicapped that race a million times and I would never have thought that they would go a half mile in 47 seconds. That was sheer stupidity on the part of the front runner's owners/trainers and jockeys.

Well, we hope for better luck next year. It's been a bizarre triple crown series this year. A dominating Derby win for Barbaro; Barbaro then breaks down in the Preakness and Bernardini turns in a huge performance to win big--which was overshadowed by Barbaro's injury; and then Bernardini says "no, thank you" to the Belmont. Let's hope for some consistency next year.

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

The Belmont

2006-06-09T18:01:00.000-04:00

Tough race to handicap because it is so wide open. You can make a case for 10 out of the 12 horses to win the race. Comments on each:

1. Platinum Couple- Plodder whose best Beyer speed rating is 82. That makes him a candidate to be last or next to last. No chance.

2. Sunriver- Finished 3rd behind Barbaro in the Florida Derby and won the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park just 3 weeks ago. He won that race coming from off a stalking pace and earned a 102 speed rating. Has a stalking style that plays very well in the Belmont. Will have a huge say in the outcome and is very playable. May likely be the favorite at post time.

3. Hemingway's Key- Actually ran a good race in the Preakness finishing 3rd, beaten 11 lenghts and earning his career best speed figure of 95. Would have to improve off that in order to be competitive here. He is a deep closer and this race doesn't have a ton of speed. Since he is devoid of early foot, he may not be in a good position to pounce at the end. Perhaps rounding out the Superfecta is the best he can hope for.

4. Bob and John- Was doing very well on the West Coast, shipped out East for the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, run on a sloppy track, and won that race in impressive style. Ran in the Ky. Derby and never lifted a hoof, finishing 17th out of 20. What went wrong? Who knows? His workouts since the Derby have been very sharp--but they have been out at Santa Anita which favors speed. Shipping back to California from Kentucky and then back to New York in a 4 week stretch may prove a bit much for this one. At 5-1, the odds aren't particularly appetizing.

5. High Finance- The real lone speed in the race. The question is will Eibar Coa be able to rate him and get a 1/2 mile in 50 seconds or so. If he does, I believe it's High Finance's race to lose. If he can't rate, and he goes the 1/2 mile in 48 seconds or faster, look for a closer. Tough to figure what he will do; but, very dangerous given the lack of speed in this race. A very live longshot.

6. Oh So Awesome- Had been racing long distances on the turf in France and shipped to Belmont for a May 19th turf race that got rained off onto the main track. The horse took to the mud and finished 3rd, beaten only 3 lengths. The speed rating of 91 is of concern and we don't know how he might handle a fast track. His workouts since 5/19 have been on the sluggish side; however, Mother Nature hasn't been cooperating in the Northeast with 2 weeks of rain. A minor check is the top aspiration for this one; however, we know he can get the distance.

7. Deputy Glitters- His 2 races at Tampa Bay Downs were terrific. He finished 2nd to Bluegrass Cat missing by a length on 2/18/06 and then turned the tables on Bluegrass Cat in the Tampa Bay Derby beating Bluegrass Cat by 2 lenghts. Ran a horrific race in the Wood Memorial when he displayed his hatred of mud. That race should be a throw-out. Dismissed as the longest shot on the board in the Ky. Derby (60-1), he finished a respectable 8th out of 20. His jockey, Jose Lezcano, took the overland route going 11 wide at the top of the Churchill Downs stretch. I thought he would wind up in the stands. Fortunately, the owner and trainer fired Lezcano and have replaced him with Edgar Prado. If the track is fast, this horse is a very live longshot and very playable. If the track is anything but fast, toss this horse since he hates mud.

8. Jazil- His best finishes have come with Fernando Jara aboard and Jara is back in the saddle. That being said, Jazil is a one-run closer who comes from out of the clouds to win and that type of move wins fewer Belmonts than you would think. Jara will have to keep Jazil closer to the pace to have any chance of wearing down the front runners. A must use in your triples and superfectas.

9. Bluegrass Cat- Not a bad horse; but, his last 3 races leave you scratching your head. Went off at 2-5 in the Tampa Bay Derby and got beat. Went off as the 9-5 favorite in the Blue Grass Stakes and finished 4th beaten 21 lenghts. That's why he got sent off at 30-1 in the Ky. Derby and, wouldn't you know it, he runs his best race that day and gets the distant 2nd to Barbaro. So, which horse shows up tomorrow? 3-1 morning line odds are not inviting and I'm expecting regression and looking elsewhere. That being said, if the crowd decides to make Sunriver the favorite and Bluegrass Cat goes off at 5-1 or higher--may be worth a few dollars "saver" bet, just in case.

10. Double Galore- Was life and death to break his maiden on May 19th at Hollywood Park. What are these people thinking? A good "head to head" bet with Platinum Couple as to who will be last.

11. Steppenwolfer- A one-run stone closer who has been in the money 8 out of his 9 races; so, hard to ignore. But, The Belmont is rarely won by a horse that closes from far back unless there is a lot of speed in the race and that speed doesn't hold up. That won't be the case tomorrow. The lack of speed means horses in the top 6 will be the ones that are around at the finish. For Steppenwolfer to have a chance, he will have to be closer to the pace which is not his natural style. Because he is a known name, he can likely be 7-2 or 4-1. If you like closers, I think Jazil is the better value.

12. Sacred Light- I had been high on this horse early in the season. He had a chance to show what he was all about in the Santa Anita Derby; but, as the gates opened, he went down to his knees (perhaps to pray) and that compromised any chance he had. He finished last beaten 19 lenghths. That race is a throw-out. Yet, instead of running in a stake race, he was placed in a $54,000 allowance race at Churchill Downs where he was life and death to close for 2nd, beaten by the immortal Nolan's Cat. The outside post and the horse's running style don't fit this race. Afraid I'll pass.

Comments: This will be a jockey's race. Pace will make this race. If High Finance can set soft fractions, he may go all the way. If High Finance can't rate and the 1/2 mile goes swiftly, look for Sunriver, Deputy Glitters, Oh So Awesome, Jazil and Bluegrass Cat to be prominent.

Bets:

$2 Exacta: #2 Sunriver & #5 High Finance OVER #2 Sunriver, #5 High Finance, #6 Oh So Awesome, #7 Deputy Glitters, #8 Jazil and #9 Bluegrass Cat ($20)

$1 Trifecta: #5 High Finance OVER #2 Sunriver, #7 Deputy Glitters, #8 Jazil OVER #7 Deputy Glitters, #6 Oh So Awesome #8 Jazil ($9)

$1 Trifecta: #2 Sunriver OVER #5 High Finance, #7 Deputy Glitters, #8 Jazil OVER #7 Deputy Glitters, #6 Oh So Awesome, #8 Jazil ($9)

$5 WPS- #2 Sunriver ($15)

$10 WPS- #5 High Finance ($30)

Total Bets- $84---If I did the math right.

NOTE: IF THE TRACK COMES UP MUDDY OR SLOPPY, REPLACE DEPUTY GLITTERS WITH HEMINGWAY'S KEY.

Good luck!

Racetrack Lenny

Prayers Are With Barbaro

2006-05-21T20:42:00.000-04:00

Horse racing is a sport with dizzying heights and bottomless lows. Two weeks after Barbaro's authoritative truimph in the Kentucky Derby giving his owners/trainer the high of their lifetime, Barbaro suffered which might be a life threatening injury in front of millions watching worldwide. Barbaro appeared to be full of energy as he even broke through the starting gate creating a false start. He was collared about 100 feet from the gate and escorted back to the gate to be re-loaded so the race could begin. What transpired once the gates open is now widely known. Not even 100 yards into the race, something went drastically wrong and jockey Edgar Prado pulled up the reins trying to restrain Barbaro who was going sideways. Barbaro's right hing leg was flopping aimlessly as the hurt animal struggled to stay upright. Prado did a masterful job of preventing further injury. Some observations:

1. Many say the injury occurred when Barbaro broke through the gate. From any replay I saw, that seems unlikely since the horse, upon being led back to the starting gate, seemed to be putting pressure on his right hind leg and was in no apparent distress. That being said, I was amazed that the stewards just decided to load him in and go. In New York and New Jersey, a false start delays post time by 10 minutes and all horses are unloaded from the gate. The reason for that is two-fold. 1) It gives all other horses 10 minutes to warm up again so they are ready for a new start and 2) It allows the track veterinarians to do more than a cursory examination to see if there was any injury. These measures are in place to protect both horses and the betting public. Why Pimlico did not do this is a mystery to me.

2. Breaking through the gate is not as uncommon as one would think. The gates are held together with strong magnets and when the signal is given, the gate is de-magnetized thus opening the doors. Sometimes, the magnets aren't as strong as they should be and a horse can break through. All they know is that when the gate opens, they go. Barbaro tried to do that; but, credit jockey Edgar Prado to know that no one else was going and he quickly got Barbaro under control. The gate should be gone over with a fine tooth comb to make sure it is functioning properly.

3. Many say Barbaro was uncharacteristically "hyped up" for the race. I think that had as much to do with the zoo at Pimlico yesterday than with any foreboding of an injury.

4. I commented to a friend that I was amazed that the maintenance crews did not harrow the stretch after the tractor brought the starting gate to the head of the strecth. I expected to see the tractors with their harrows making the surface even--or the crew with rakes covering up the tire track marks left by both the tractor and the starting gate wheels. If you look at the slow motion replay, it seems Barbaro suffered his injury when he caught the wheel indentation in the track. Maybe I'm making more of this than I should; but, I can't imagine I was the only one who saw this.

5. The entire incident lends itself to an independent inquiry as to what went wrong. This was a horrific development that cannot be chalked up to "well, that's horse racing". We should be sure everything that could have been done to make this a safe race was done. If things could have been done better, then let's adopt those improvements so we minimize the risk of this ever happening again.

Our thoughts and prayers are with Barbaro, Michael Matz and the owners of Barbaro.

A sad day for racing and a very somber Preakness.

Racetrack Lenny

Preakness

2006-05-19T18:03:00.000-04:00

Who would have thought only 3 Derby contenders would show up for the Preakness? No matter, we still have to try to pick a winner in what is a combination stakes and allowance race. Some of the new faces just don't belong in this race; but, track management must be thrilled to have a field of 9 which will allow for all the exotic wagers. Here's my thoughts on the field by post position:

1. Like Now- Pimlico plays well to front runners with its hard surface, tight turns and short stretch. Speed at the rail is dangerous at Pimlico. Like Now needs the lead to do his best and the question is whether he can get the 1-3/16th mile distance. The owner/trainer must also like their chances since they have replaced regular rider, 18 year old Fernando Jara, with journeyman Garrett Gomez, who has been hot of late. This is a live longshot who might wire the field or be tiring and still get in the money. At morning line odds of 12-1, a win is not out of the question. He could be this year's Scrappy T.

2. Platinum Couple- Top Beyer speed figure is an 82, this horse will likely be last.

3. Hemingway's Key- George Steinbrenner wants the spotlight and this is his best chance to get it. Unfortunately, his horse's chances of being in the spotlight are slim. He would need a complete pace meltdown in order to plod home first. Another candidate to be last.

4. Greeley's Legacy- Ran a strong Gotham at Aqueduct in March when he closed to get 4th, beaten a length and a quarter over a dead rail. He posted a 103 Beyer that day but has significantly regressed in his 2 subsequent races. The field's legitimate closer on his best day. Not impossible.

5. Brother Derek- Likely to be the 2nd choice in the wagering behind Barbaro. Cursed with a far outside post in the Derby, this speedster still accounted well for himself finishing a dead-heated 4th with Jazil. This race will be much more to his liking with the much shorter field and a hard track similar to what he's raced on out West. Certainly one of the top horses.

6. Barbaro- Ran the race of his life in the Derby posting a crushing 111 Beyer speed rating and beating the field by 6 widening lengths under a brisk hand ride. A very deserving Preakness favorite. For the bettor, getting 2/5 or 3/5 isn't an enticing proposition. My uncle Al used to say "Hardly a man is still alive that paid the mortgage at 3/5". If you're looking for money, go to the bank. Getting $3 for betting $5? Not for me. Also keep in mind that Barbaro's races have always been well spaced apart to allow for at least 30 days rest between starts. The Preakness comes just 2 weeks after the Derby. Great horse; but, vulnerable. The pace scenario will be different and I don't think he will win.

7. Sweetnorthernsaint- Had what must have been one of the top 5 worst trips in Derby history. Horse is capable of much better, the question is "will the memory of the demolition derby still be in his head?" If so, he may not fire his best. If not, he will rebound nicely and will be right there. Will likely be the 3rd choice in the wagering and anything above 4-1 would be good value.

8. Bernardini- The Preakness will represent this horse's 4th career start. Beyer speed figures are going the right way and his Withers Stakes victory was legit-albeit in a field of 4 horses. He seems to me to be too lightly raced to win this; but, a top 4 finish at decent odds is not out of the realm of possibility.

9. Diabolical- A nice allowance horse who needs the lead to win. Problem is that outside post will have him wide outside both Like Now and Bernardini. Wide speed trips seldom get the job done and he might be a pace factor that will be backing up in the stretch.

The Bets:

The only value play in this race is the exacta. You will be able to not bet your head off and still have a chance of capturing a nice price. If you believe the 3 Derby contenders will finish 1,2,3; then, the triple and superfecta will pay $200 or less making boxing 4 horses in those bets an unappetizing gamble. So, here is my value play:

$2 Exacta Wheel: #1 Like Now over ALL. ($16)
$2 Exacta Back Wheel: ALL over #1 Like Now ($16)

Here's hoping Like Now finishes 1st or 2nd.

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

Maybe 10 Will Go

2006-05-16T20:15:00.000-04:00

Just 3 days to go before the Preakness is run. Hopefully handicapping redemption will come after my Derby debacle.

Up until today it looked like a field of 6 starters; but, a few horses are coming out of the woodwork and we may have 9 or 10 entries by the time the field is drawn. Out of the Derby, only Barbaro, Brother Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint will run in the Preakness. All other entries will be new to the Triple Crown trail. It will make for an interesting mix.

I haven't quite given up on Sweetnorthernsaint since he seems to be working well and came out of the Derby in reasonably good order. When you view the Derby replay, you will see that Sweetnorthernsaint got the worst trip of all the starters. He was trapped on a dead rail. That shouldn't happen on Saturday.

Of the newcomers, Like Now is someone with a good shot at springing an upset. He has speed and Pimlico is very friendly to front-runners. Diabolical also fits that same pattern. I'm surprised that neither Jazil nor Steppenwolfer are not planning to run in the Preakness. There is tons of speed in the race and no legitimate closer. Interesting.

Stay tuned,

Racetrack Lenny

They Are Animals After All- Derby Post-Mortem

2006-05-07T13:14:00.000-04:00

OUCH! On any given Saturday...! Well, back to work tomorrow since all I have are a batch of losing tickets and once again my pick got victimized by a horrible trip. It is what it is. Like humans, some animals take to being surrounded by 157,000 drunken fans and tons of noise; others get freaked out by it and it showed in yesterday's 132nd running of the Derby.

Congratulations to Barbaro who settled in very nicely on the outside in the 2nd tier of horses, avoided traffic and clearly was much the best winning with authority by nearly 7 lengths. I'm very happy for jockey, Edgar Prado, who got his first Derby. He has labored for many years and has shown what a good rider he is, yesterday's win for him was much deserved and long overdue.

I thought the long rest between the Florida Derby and the Ky. Derby would be Barbaro's undoing. And, I was not alone in that observation. The "wise guy" handicappers just couldn't see how Barbaro could come in with rust on him and win this huge race. Well, Mike Matz (trainer) got it right and the first horse since 1956 to win with 5 weeks or more rest got the roses.

Congratulations as well to Bluegrass Cat, who I thought was a much under-rated horse. He showed his mettle yesterday running truer to his 2 year old form than this years. However, he was 2nd best; but catching him at 30-1 provided some very nice place and show prices.

Of the stone closers, both Steppenwolfer and Jazil hit the board. Steppenwolfer rounded out the triple while Jazil and Brother Derek rounded out the twin superfecta. Steppenwolfer had fewer traffic problems than Jazil and clearly got 3rd; with Jazil closing fast. Up until the 3/4 mark, Jazil was last behind some 15 lengths. Nice effort for him in a ton of traffic.

What happened to my other picks? Sweetnorthernsaint had the worst start of all the horses in the race. Just out of the gate, Sweetnorthernsaint was soundly bumped by Private Vow, who had no business in the race. Private Vow's jockey, Shaun Bridgmohan, came out of the gate and made a bee line to the rail; but, did it at the expense of Sweetnorthernsaint. To avoid going down, Kent Desormeaux, had to steady Sweetnorthernsaint, causing him to lose valuable ground right at the start. Desormeaux now had no other choice but to high-tail it to the rail and he was now 11th, a place he never wanted to be. As they made their run up the backstretch, there was a very narrow opening at the rail and Desormeaux squeezed Sweetnorthernsaint through it to reach contention on the far turn now getting into 3rd. However, when you take the rail trip, you run the risk of being behind tiring speed and that is exactly what happened. Sinister Minister had taken the lead; but was beginning to tire and was now backing up. Desormeaux had no choice but to steady Sweetnorthernsaint yet again and cutting off his momentum. Horses are not cars where you can switch gears at will. Sweetnorthernsaint was now tiring from his efforts and likely "spooked" by what was going on. One of the worst Derby trips I've seen.

Sinister Minister, my other pick, went as far as he could in a brutal pace. Now I know why Garrett Gomez opted to go elsewhere allowing Victor Espinoza the mount. Yesterday proved that Sinister Minister cannot rate. This was one of my picks where I felt he would either win or be last. Speed kills--in route races.

A.P. Warrior- Got bumped at the start and was in a ton of traffic. This horse was spooked and he never handled the deeper surface of Churchill Downs. This was just not to be A.P. Warrior's day and credit to Corey Nakatani to not use the whip on this horse as he just never fired.

The one horse I did not use in my bets that I had feared was Bob & John. There was no need to fear. This horse looked like a totally different animal than what raced in the Wood Memorial. An inexplicably no-show performance.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: The Derby should be restricted to the top 12 horses on the basis of earnings--with their earnings being rated on a point system. A 20 horse field is a cavalry charge that never has form holding up. However, this will never happen as Churchill Downs is not about to let $36Million bet in the win pool to slip away. Luck is as good as skill in the Derby- proven yet again.

Well, now it's off to the Preakness, which is in 2 weeks and is a much formful race. Rarely do you have more than 10 entrants in the Preakness; so, form holds up much more. Remember last year when Giacomo stunned in the Derby and he came crashing to earth in the Preakness. Barbaro looks like a horse that could be Triple Crown material; but, he won't have things as easy in the Preakness.

May the horse be with you---next time,

Racetrack Lenny

Derby Handicap

2006-05-05T13:06:00.000-04:00

After last year's Derby debacle, the phrase "On any given Saturday, any horse can win" was given new meaning. Form went out the window and we had the flukiest Derby in history. That's what makes handicapping this one so tough--everyone is trying to find this year's Giacomo. While you might think it can't happen again; well, think again. This race has too many entrants at 20 and luck is as good as skill in such a cavalry charge. Here are my thoughts on each of the entries:

1. Jazil- One run closer gets buried at the rail which is where you do not want a closer; however, this horse is SO slow out of the gate that it might not matter. His 2nd place finish in the Wood Memorial was visually impressive and he was dead last 20 lenghts off the lead at the 1/2 mile mark. He got 2nd missing by 1-1/2 lengths. If Fernando Jara can keep his horse out of traffic and get a rail skimming ride, this is a live longshot closer who can pick up the pieces. Definitely worth playing underneath in exacta, trifecta and superfecta bets.

2. Steppenwolfer- Another stone closer buried at the rail. Looked good closing in the Arkansas Derby; but, I think the competition in that race was less than what raced in the Wood. Another with a shot if a pace meltdown occurs.

3. Keyed Entry- Very speedy horse who has 2 triple-digit Beyers under his belt. However, Edgar Prado had a choice between this horse and #8 Barbaro, and he chose Barbaro. Keyed Entry got caught in the 1 mile Gotham, finished a staggering 3rd in the Wood Memorial. Nothing here to make me think he can get a mile and a quarter under his belt.

4. Sinister Minister- Was clearly going to win the California Derby when jockey Martin Garcia kept whipping the horse right handed causing the horse to lug in and hit the rail twice. That idiocy cost Sinister Minister the race. The owner/trainer had the smarts to fire Garcia and replace him with Garrett Gomez for the Blue Grass, which Sinister Minister won with authority posting a 116 Beyer in the process. And, therein lies the problem. The California Derby speed rating came back a 91 despite the rail mishap. Had the horse gone a straight course, I believe he might have hit a 100. Sinister's prior career best Beyer was a 102. So, is he a candidate to regress and bounce off the Blue Grass or is he at the top of his form cycle? We'll know tomorrow. Garrett Gomez had his choice of either Sinister Minister or #7 Bob & John; and he selected Bob & John. Sinister Minister will either wire the field or be among the last 3--still hard to toss out.

5. Point Determined- West Coast based horse who has run consistently well. However, in none of his races was he able to get past #18 Brother Derek or #10 A.P. Warrior. Those two are here tomorrow. With Bob & John, you have a West Coast based horse who came East and won. West Coast tracks tend to be much harder than their softer, sandier East Coast counterparts and I have a feeling Point Determined will not take to the surface, much like his daddy, Point Given.

6. Showing Up- With only 3 career starts under his belt, pass.

7. Bob & John- Garrett Gomez's choice and I can see why. Just a cut below his West Coast competition, he came East and won the Wood Memorial over a sloppy track. He sat 2nd most of the way in the 2 path behind Keyed Entry. When Keyed Entry got rubbery-legged, Bob & John just kept grinding it out to score the win. It's these kind of "grinders" that get the roses. However, Bob & John's wins have come when he has been no worse than 3rd during the race. If he tries that tomorrow, he'll be cooked in a speed duel. If he goes off less than 10-1, you're not getting value. Anything above 10-1--make a "saver" wager.

8. Barbaro- Winner of 5 in a row; yet, I'm unconvinced. The long layoff since the Florida Derby concerns me as does the level of competition in the Fla. Derby. This horse will get lots of play and will be a huge underlay. Not enough value for the money.

9. Sharp Humor- Speedball who needs the lead to win. Was a tiring 2nd in the Fla. Derby when they hit a half mile in 47-1/5. Tomorrow's half mile split will be faster. Once Sharp Humor engages Sinister Minister and Keyed Entry, you can close the curtains. Pass.

10. A.P. Warrior- Seems to be at the peak of his current form cycle posting a 100 and 101 Beyer rating in his last 2 starts. A one-run closer with a good post position and a good jockey in Corey Nakatani. Very playable.

11. Sweetnorthernsaint- With all the hype surrounding Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron; plus, the sudden attention being given to Point Determined, #11 could get "lost in the shuffle". That is good for the bettor because this is my pick. His last 4 races at different racetracks have resulted in Beyers of 102, 104, 104, and 109--consistently good. At the top of his form cycle and with his consistency, I believe this is the horse to beat. He displayed that he could rate in his last 2 races. Anything at 5-1 or higher on this entrant is an overlay. The winner.

12. Private Vow- This horse has more excuses than George W. Bush. He's always in the mix but caves in when it counts. His recent form suggests he is in a down cycle. Pass.

13. Bluegrass Cat- 2 year old form was sensational; 3 year old form leaves a lot to be desired. However, for some reason, I happen to think he can have a big say tomorrow. His form is nearly identical to Thunder Gulch, the winner of the 1995 Derby at 24-1. Thunder Gulch had 2 horrible efforts coming into the Derby and looked like his 2 year old self in the Derby. Could history repeat? Maybe not; but, I'm making a saver wager on this one just in case. 30-1 odds or higher are likely.

14. Deputy Glitters- Impressive winner of the Tampa Bay Derby at 8-1. Scored a 102 Beyer that day despite weak competition. His Wood Memorial effort was horrific over a sloppy track; however, a fast track is a guarantee tomorrow. If you throw out the Wood, his efforts this year don't make this an impossible choice. I wish the owners/trainer would have gotten a name jockey instead of Jose Lezcano; however, another "saver" wager potential. Not out of it.

15. Seaside Retreat- If this horse wins, you will be able to vacation at a Seaside Retreat for about a month as this one would pay boxcars of money. Excellent candidate to be last.

16. Cause To Believe- A versatile horse; however, his best speed figure is a 98 in the California Derby which he won by 4. The far outside post is a killer. Can't see him overcoming that.

17. Lawyer Ron- The most experienced horse in the field making the Derby his 13th career start. Has reeled off 6 in a row in Louisiana and Arkansas. Generally has the lead; but, he can rate when he has to. While he has a 106 Beyer, that came 4 races ago and his subsequent efforts have been in the mid to upper 90's. While consistent, he hasn't beaten much and post 17 really compromises this one's chances. Another factor to consider is he's been racing hard practically once a month and maybe he's about to tail off.

18. Brother Derek- The morning line favorite. Last 4 race Beyers have ranged between 102 and 108. His races have come against short fields- The San Rafael had 4 entries and the Santa Anita Derby had 5 entries. In each case, Brother Derek was the controlling speed. With 19 others in the race, this is unchartered territory for this horse and his connections aren't thrilled with the extreme outside post. He'll have to be hustled very hard out of the gate to get good position and that will take some starch out of him. At 3-1, not worth the risk for your money. Very beatable.

19. Storm Treasure- Suck-up 2nd in the Blue Grass to Sweetnorthernsaint (someone had to be 2nd) at 65-1. Before you bet the mortgage, his 95 Beyer was his career best and that left him 12 lengths back in 2nd. 'Nuff said.

20. Flashy Bull- Mediocre Beyers and the far outside post really compromise this one's chances. Mike Smith (last year's winning jockey) takes the mount; but, I don't see lightning striking twice for Mike. No factor at all.

Bets:

$10 WPS- # 11- Sweetnorthernsaint
$2 WPS- #4- Sinister Minister
$1 WPS- #10- A.P. Warrior
$2 Win- #13- Bluegrass Cat
$2 Win- # 14- Deputy Glitters

$2 Exacta Box: (#1) Jazil, (#4) Sinister Minister,(#10) A.P. Warrior, (#11) Sweetnorthernsaint (simplified: $2 Exacta Box- 1/4/10/11)

$2 Triple-Part Wheel: (#11) Sweetnorthernsaint & (#4) Sinister Minister over (#11) Sweetnorthernsaint & (#4) Sinister Minister over (#10) A.P. Warrior, (#1) Jazil, (#14) Deputy Glitters & (#13) Bluegrass Cat. (simplified: $2 Triple: 4/11 with 4/11 with 1/10/13/14)

$1 Superfecta Part Wheel: #11 Sweetnorthernsaint & #4 Sinister Minister over #11 Sweetnorthernsaint & #1 Jazil, #4 Sinister Minister over #1 Jazil, #10 A.P. Warrior, #13 Bluegrass Cat over #10 A.P. Warrior, #13 Bluegrass Cat, #14 Deputy Glitters. (simplified:$2 Superfecta: 4/11 with 1/4/11 with 1/10/13 with 10/13/14)

Good luck everyone, may the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

One Week Away

2006-04-29T20:11:00.000-04:00

Last week's Lexington Stakes at Keeneland and the Frederico Tesio at Pimlico didn't put the fear of God into those going in the Derby. The Lexington was won by Showing Up, trained by Barclay Tagg--he of Funny Cide fame. Cornelio Velasquez was up and stalked the pace mid-pack before making his move at the top of the stretch. Sent of as the 3/2 favorite, he did not disappoint winning by a comfortable lenghth and a quarter. Gotham Stakes winner, Like Now, Fernando Jara up, alternated on the lead with Fast Parade and Bear Character. That effort, along with a bit of bumping in the lane, took some starch out of the 4-1 shot; but, he did hold the place spot. Derby hopeful, Greeley's Legacy, finished 5th while racing 5 wide in a dull effort.

The Tesio was won on a sealed, sloppy track by Ah Day, the 2-1 favorite. Ridden by Pimlico regular, Ryan Fogelsonger, he was on or close to the lead and prevailed by 5 widening lenghts. The only other Derby hopeful in this contest was Scanlon's Song, who had raced in the Wood Memorial. Sent off at 7-2, the off track compromised his chances. Speed was holding up in the slop and the best Scanlon's Song could do was pass tiring rivals.

Churchill Downs opened today and they got their first stake race of their season with the Derby Trial. Favorite (9-5) Noonmark, Shaun Bridgmohan up, is going nowhere. He finished a well beaten 6th--beating only 1 horse, Protagonus; who, unfortunately, broke down at the 5/16th mark. With the description of what happened (a right front leg break), it would appear the horse may have been put down. The winner was 5-1 Record, Rafael Bejarano up. Record just got up in the final stride to catch the very tenacious 54-1 longshot Spotsgone with veteran rider, Earlie Fires up. Spotsgone was almost gone just missing by a neck.

Well, the Derby field will be announced Wednesday. I'll put on my thinking cap and do the best I can.

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

Bellamy Road Redux?

2006-04-16T16:07:00.000-04:00

Blue Grass Stakes: For those that backed Sinister Minister based on my convoluted logic, congratulations. You were rewarded with nearly 9-1 for the effort. I must admit, when I saw 22-4/5 for the opening quarter, I was thinking Sinister Minister would sink in the stretch. Oh, ye of little faith! Garrett Gomez was a huge upgrade in rider for this front runner. Gomez thought he had the horse and he would find out by zipping on the lead and play "catch me if you can". In response, Sinister Minister freaked and won by better than a dozen lengths--shades of Bellamy Road. The difference is that Sinister Minister ran a strong race in the California Derby and a stronger race yesterday. The big question is: Did the effort take too much out of him and will he be a "bounce" candidate? We'll find out on May 6th, won't we?

As for other Derby hopefuls, we spotted some pretenders who just don't belong. Bluegrass Cat, sent off as the 9-5 favorite despite his tepid Tampa Bay Derby performance, was a rather distant 2nd early and ran a rather lacklustre race finishing 4th, beaten a solid 20 lengths. First Samurai, sent off the 5-2 second choice, was suspect coming in. The word was that he is a sprinter and that 1-1/8th miles was beyond his capability. That question got answered with a 5th place finish, beaten 25 lengths. He was rather prominent up to the 3/4 pole and then it was a steady tiring. Look for him in 6f or 7f sprints. The lightly raced Strong Contender, needed at least a 2nd place finish to have enough earnings to get into the Derby. Strong Contender ran evenly througout and was a tiring 3rd. No Derby for him.

Arkansas Derby: 1-2 favorite Lawyer Ron did not disappoint. However, jockey John McKee had to move much earlier than usual with his horse. McKee had elected to go the shortest route to the wire--riding the rail. However, with High Cotton showing the way and Superfly & Private Vow both very close to his outside, McKee looked like he was going to get pinned down at the rail. McKee sensed this and began some brisk urging to get Lawyer Ron to run into a hole ahead of him to take the lead just after an opening quarter in 23 flat. Lawyer Ron is a one run horse and the question was could he handle a sustained run to the wire? The answer was yes; but, he was a tiring horse nearing the wire drifting out noticeably. I wonder if this effort will take some starch out of him in 3 weeks. Other Derby contenders: Steppenwolfer was the only horse, at 7-1, that was doing any serious running at the end. He closed from 11th to get 2nd from a tiring Private Vow. Private Vow, off at 5-1, ran an even race, made a mild bid in the stretch and just wasn't good enough. Private Vow's connections need to rethink if rider Shaun Bridgmohan is the right jock for this horse. Bridgmohan doesn't seem to fit Private Vow. One-run closer, Red Raymond, off at 13-1, galloped at the back of the pack and never reached contention.

So, with 3 weeks to go to the Derby, it looks like someone could take the race running wire to wire. It all depends on post position. The serious contenders appear to be Brother Derek, Barbaro, Sinister Minister, Lawyer Ron, Sweetnorthernsaint and Bob & John. Could be a very interesting betting race.

All for now, may the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

Blue Grass & Arkansas Derby

2006-04-14T21:57:00.000-04:00

Blue Grass Stakes: To be run at Keeneland at 1-1/8th miles. First Samurai gets the 8/5 morning line favorite tag; however, I think he can be beaten. The sleeper of the deck is Sinister Minister. He's in at 15-1, which is a huge overlay. He ran 2nd in the California Derby as the 9/5 second choice to Cause to Believe. Jockey Martin Garcia made the lead then hit the rail twice during the strecth run and was overtaken by Cause to Believe. Sinister Minister held 2nd by 14 lenghts. He gets a huge upgrade in rider with Garrett Gomez. This horse has a solid chance.

Nick Zito's Little Cliff also gets a jockey change from Jeremy Rose to Corey Nakatani. He will be handled a bit more aggressively and with the rail post position, he could make some noise tomorrow at 10/1.

As much as I have liked Bluegrass Cat, the effort in the Tampa Bay Derby was so dull that I would want more than 5/2 to bet him. Sent off at Tampa Bay at 2/5, Bluegrass Cat ran against a uninspired bunch and was life & death to hold second. Will pass.

Bet: $2 Exacta Box: Little Cliff, Sinister Minister, Strong Contender
$5 WPS: Sinister Minister

Arkansas Derby- To be run at 1-1/8th miles at Oaklawn. This race is nearly a rematch of the Rebel Stakes. Lawyer Ron at 7/5 looks unbeatable on paper. Those thought to have a chance against him are With A City, Private Vow, Red Raymond, Simon Pure, Superfly and Sayhellotolarry. Comments: With A City's win at 48/1 in the Lane's End at Turfway Park is suspect. He came from way out of it to win it on Turfway's Polytrack--which is a rubberized type surface that is deep, easy on the feet and produces some remarkable results for horses who haven't run well before. He's listed morning line at 15/1 and you'd have to get that or better to take a stab at him. I'm siding against. Private Vow, was sent off at 2/1 in the Lane's End and came up empty. Private Vow just likes to go and jockey Shaun Bridgmohan had a strangle hold on the horse in the Lane's End. When it came time to run, Private Vow was empty. If Bridgmohan rates him better tomorrow, he has a chance. Red Raymond closed from way back in the Rebel Stakes (also at Oaklawn) at 22/1. The pace scenario seems likely to be the same--fast fractions that can be closed into. He's not a throw out. Simon Pure, a Wayne Lukas trainee, set the fast pace in the San Felipe Stakes last month and failed to last. With more patient handling, perhaps he lasts to get a check. Superfly, was dull in the Lane's End, and gets a positive jockey change to Willie Martinez. Sayhellotolarry last won as the favorite in an $62K Optional Claiming race. While his win was impressive, this is a big step up in class.

Bet: $2 Exacta Part Wheel: Lawyer Ron & Red Raymond over Lawyer Ron, Red Raymond, Simon Pure and Private Vow.

$2 WPS- Red Raymond

$5 WPS- Lawyer Ron

May the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

What To Make of Yesterday

2006-04-09T17:56:00.000-04:00

3 major stakes and the picture is getting clearer. At Santa Anita, Brother Derek, (1/2- Alex Solis) had everything his own way. With the scratch of Indy Wildcat, the only other early speed in the race was gone and Brother Derek took advantage winning wire to wire by 3-1/4 lengths. The final time was an excellent 1:48 flat. Point Determined (7/2- Rafael Bejarano) and A.P. Warrior (4/1- Corey Nakatani) came in 2nd and 3rd respectively. Closer Sacred Light stumbled badly at the start and lost all chance right as the gates opened. Brother Derek has established himself as the one to beat on May 6th. But, before the coronation, the race must be run.

Meanwhile at Hawthorne, the Illinois Derby was run at a mile and an eighth. Sweetnorthernsaint (6/5-Kent Desormeaux) was a runaway winner by nearly 10 lenghts in 1:49:4/5. While a slower time than the Santa Anita Derby, Sweetnorthernsaint had to overcome the far outside post and he tracked pace-setter Mister Triester ( 27/1- Brice Blanc). Blanc really slowed things down in the 2nd quarter which is why Mister Triester was able to safely hold the place spot. Other Ky. Derby hopefuls: Cause to Believe was sent off at 2-1 and ran evenly to capture 3rd. Racketeer, off at 4-1 and My Golden Song, off at 6-1 ran with the pace but came up empty in the stretch. Not a good sign when they want (and need) to go a mile and a quarter.

Aqueduct's Wood Memorial turned into a slop-fest as heavy rain, wet snow and sleet made for a most un-springlike day. Keyed Entry, who just got beat in the shorter distance Gotham, got sent off as the prohibitive 4/5 choice under Edgar Prado. Keyed Entry went right for the lead and set very swift fractions over the slop. Longshot Marco's Tale (20/1- Norberto Arroyo) applied steady pressure before tiring. At that point, 2-1 Bob and John took up the chase. Although West Coast based, Bob and John had no problem handling the off going and drew on even terms with Keyed Entry and began to pull away at the wire. Jazil (15-1, Fernando Jara), was dead last at the head of the stretch and closed like a bat out of hell to nail the place spot when he passed a rubbery-legged Keyed Entry. Deputy Glitters (9-1, Jose Lezcano) who has Derby hopes just didn't handle the off track and finished a tiring 6th after running 4th most of the way. Don't throw him out of your Derby wagers just yet.

That's it for now, may the horse be with you.

Racetrack Lenny

The Big 3

2006-04-07T21:30:00.000-04:00

Tomorrow brings 3 major Derby prep races.

Illinois Derby- Run at 1-1/8th miles at Hawthorne Park, this race has attracted a field of 10 and, in some ways, is a better "betting" race than the Wood Memorial or the Santa Anita Derby. Malameeze (8/1), off his latest form, gets the rail which will help. John McKee also stays aboard. Closer Itsallaboutthechase (12/1) gets an inside post and if he can't close tomorrow, forget the Derby. However, he will be overbet since it's a name a lot of people will recognize. This will be an interesting race. The speed drew all the outside post positions. Racketeer (5/1), My Golden Song (5/1) and Cause to Believe (5/2) will be hustled out of the gate quickly. Kent Desormeaux aboard Sweetnorthernsaint (4/1) will have to do the same but just keep off those three in order to have something left in the stretch. Remember, Sweetnorthernsaint ran 3rd in the Gotham having the outside post there as well. He looked better than he finished: Bets: $2 exacta box: Malameeze, My Golden Song, Sweetnorthernsaint. $5 WPS: Sweetnorthernsaint.

Santa Anita Derby: Not a great betting race. On paper, a 4 horse race. Brother Derek, a deserving favorite, just presents no value at 3/5. As my late uncle Al was fond of saying: "Hardly a man is still alive that paid the mortgage at 3/5". Also, the trainer and owner are pointing to the first Saturday in May and they may not be running all out to capture this race. I will throw him out of my bets. With good speed in this race, look for 2 closers to be winging at the end: A.P. Warrior (7/2) and Sacred Light (9/2). In a 6 horse field, not a lot of money to be made: Bet: $5 Exacta Wheel Sacred Light over ALL.

Wood Memorial: Run at 1-1/8th miles at New York's Aqueduct Racetrack. Forecast is for rain or drizzle so an off track is a certainty. Another poor betting event. 4 contenders and 5 pretenders. Speed figures on Deputy Glitters (7/2), Keyed Entry (5/2), Greeley's Legacy (6/1) and Bob & John (2/1) are 115, 114, 112 and 105 respectively. Despite having the 4th highest speed rating, Bob & John has been installed at the lukewarm favorite. All 4 had tough races their last out; so, I'm looking at 2 horses that are poised to improve and take advantage if the top 4 falter. They are: Platinum Couple (30/1) and Marco's Tale (15/1). Although their speed ratings are in the high 90's, an improvement by them and a regression by the top 4 puts them right in the thick of things. The other 3- Jazil, Scanlon's Song and Niagara Causeway just have much too much to improve to be a factor.

Bets: $2 Exacta Box: Deputy Glitters, Marco's Tale, Platinum Couple. $10 WPS: Marco's Tale.

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

March Madness- Part II

2006-04-02T19:18:00.000-04:00

Barbaro is a grass horse. Barbaro has never run on a fast track. Barbaro only ran once on a sloppy track when a race was rained off the turf. What is Barbaro doing in the Florida Derby? Winning it is what he was doing. Sent off as the 8/5 favorite under Edgar Prado, Barbaro stalked the swift pace made by Sharp Humor (6-1 with Mark Guidry) and prevailed by a 1/2 length after a very long drive. Sharp Humor was not disgraced in any way. Thought to be only a 7 furlong sprinter, he held well at the 1-1/8 mile distance nearly pulling it off wire to wire. So, grass or no grass pedigree, Barbaro seems to be a legit contender a month from now.

Other Derby hopefuls in the Florida Derby were Sunriver, 4-1, who finished 3rd 3-1/2 lenghts off the lead. Hesanoldsalt, sent off at 39-1 and running an even 4th before retreating to finish a tiring 5th. Flashy Bull (4-1, Rafael Bejarano) showed nothing cantering about the track to finish a very non-threatening 7th. Finally, stone closer Rehoboth, under new jock Javier Castellano and sent off at 9-1, broke slowly and then got slower as the race progressed finishing dead last. Rehoboth's last race was a troubled 5th when he was making a move; maybe that effort took something out of him. The horse is regressing at the wrong time.

Meanwhile at the WinStar Derby at Sunland Park, 4/5 favorite Wanna Runner (Victor Espinoza) ran off with it by 4 widening lenghts. Doctor Decherd, a prominent Derby hopeful earlier this year, turned in a dismal effort finishing 8th beaten 28 lenghts. Sent off at 7/2 and sitting behind a blistering pace, there was nothing in the tank when it came time to run. Maybe there is something physically wrong. It was just too bad an effort to be true.

Well, I thought I would have some money for Derby day. Alas, LSU could not get around the UCLA defense and LSU went down to defeat. So, I will have to find betting monies elsewhere.

May the horse be with you.

Racetrack Lenny

Bettor, Beware!

2006-03-26T16:53:00.000-05:00

Coming from way back, With a City (Brice Blanc) upset Turfway Park's Lane's End Stakes at 48-1. Owner, trainer and jockey have caught Derby fever. Some legitimate Derby contenders (More Than Regal, Sharp Attack, Laity and Silent Times) finished 4th, 8th, 10th and 11th respectively. While the fractions were honest, the front end just stopped proving that a mile and an eighth was beyond their capability. With A City took advantage of the stopping speed to circle 4 wide and surge home winning by a lenghth and a quarter. Before you go putting real money on With A City, keep in mind that Turfway has that funky Polytrack. It is an all-weather surface that is a mixture of sand, rubber and other synthetic materials. It makes for a very spongy track that is very good for horse's hooves and durability. However, it tends to be a tiring track because it is so deep. Churchill Downs still runs on dirt; so, on a faster surface, speed may hold up a little longer. Horses that run well on the Polytrack surface, tend to run well on off-tracks elsewhere (i.e. tracks listed as good, muddy or sloppy). So, keep an eye on the weather for Derby day.

Laurel Park in Maryland ran the Private Terms Stakes at a mile. The winner was the longest shot on the board, Our Peak who closed from way back to win by a neck at odds of 73-1. Fast fractions set up the perfect scenario for this closer. However, look for the entries in this contest to be around for the Frederico Tesio at Pimlico next month. Generally, Maryland horses are looking at the Preakness, not the Derby.

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

March Madness

2006-03-19T16:04:00.000-05:00

4 major stake races this weekend with one Derby hopeful turning in the expected performance. So, let's start with him: Lawyer Ron. Sent off as the 9/5 favorite in a field of 10, Lawyer Ron, with John McKee up, settled into a stalking trip, swung 5 wide turning for home and drew away to win by 3 authoritative lengths. Fellow Derby hopeful Private Vow, sent off as the close 2nd choice at 2/1 under Shaun Bridgmohan was hard held all through the race. When Bridgmohan wanted to unleash Private Vow, there was nothing there and Private Vow finished a very unthreatening 7th. Perhaps too much energy expended fighting the jockey. Don't toss out Private Vow just yet. The other Derby hopeful, Steppenwolfer with Robby Albarado, was sent off at 5/2 and was closing at the end but started to run out of steam to just miss the place spot.

In the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park, even money favorite Bob & John, Victor Espinoza up, was soundly bumped at the start, was steadied along the rail, swung 5 wide for the drive and while closing, seemed to flatten out a bit to be beaten by 3 lenghts. Meanwhile, 7/1 A.P. Warrier under Corey Nakatani took advantage by racing off the rail and in a 4 wide move, ground it out on the front end to prevail by a 1/2 length over 7/2 Point Determined. Point Determined ran an even race and just could not outrun the winner.

Meanwhile, in Florida's Tampa Bay Derby, Bluegrass Cat (John Velasquez) was sent off as the prohibitive 2/5 favorite and had to settle for 2nd to 8/1 Deputy Glitters under Jose Lezcano. Deputy Glitters sat off the pacesetter 65/1 Winnies Tigger Too who held on to be 3rd. Storm Treasure with Mike Smith up was the other Derby hopeful thought to be able to give Bluegrass Cat a run for the money. He raced evenly and was never a threat at 6/1.

Back East, Aqueduct ran the Gotham Stakes, contested for the first time around 2 turns. The betting public settled on co-favorites. Achilles of Troy, with Ramon Dominguez, was sent off at 3/2. Keyed Entry, Edgar Prado up, was sent off at 8/5. After spectacular victories in the Count Fleet and Whirlaway stakes, Achilles of Troy clearly did not fire yesterday. He raced mid pack and when it came time to run, there was nothing there. In fact, the horse was vanned off after the race and we hope there is nothing seriously wrong--but, it's not a good sign. Taking advantage of the situation was sprinter Like Now sent off at 36/1 with Fernando Jara. Like Now led wire to wire and just lasted to win by a neck over Keyed Entry who was inching up at the end but just ran out of racing room. Sweet Northern Saint, sent off at 4/1 under Kent Desormeaux, raced well from the outside but got a puzzling ride. He was wide on both turns and made a decent bid to miss by less than a length.

Interesting day at the races with Lawyer Ron performing as expected and stamping himself as a true contender.

Racetrack Lenny

March Madness Begins

2006-03-05T18:59:00.000-05:00

On the 4th of March, there were 4 major stake races all across the country.

At Gulfstream Park, the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth was run at 1-1/8th miles. A field of 10 contested the event run over a fast track. First Samurai under Edgar Prado was sent off as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite. There was much hype before the race about First Samurai never having gone 2 turns in a race and how would he handle it. Well, he handled it pretty well; but, the race was not without controversy and a DQ that worked to place First Samurai in first place. What happened?

First Samurai was winging on the front end setting fractions of 23.86; 48:30; 1:12.36 before 7-1 Corinthian (Javier Castellano) took a slim lead. Corinthian then proceeded to lug in putting a resurging First Samurai in tight quarters forcing Prado to steady First Samurai and swing to the outside for clear running room. But, Corinthian was now bearing out forcing First Samurai to go wide. Corinthian crossed the finish line first by a length and the Inquiry sign went right up. Prado also claimed foul. Result: Corinthian was taken down and placed 3rd moving up First Samurai and Flashy Bull (10-1, Rafael Bejarano) moved to 2nd. The stewards call was the right one.

The good news is that First Samurai showed he could handle 2 turns and, he showed some true grit by coming on again at the end. However, it looks like First Samurai needs the lead and is tough to rate. Let's see how he does in upcoming races.

Of the other Derby hopefuls in this race, Itsallaboutthechase (21-1, Mark Guidry) should be cured of Derby fever. He finished a well beaten 9th and never threatened. Great Point (4-1, Jeremy Rose) was a huge disappointment never lifting a hoof and finishing dead last. Not a good sign. Local horse Rehoboth was in over his head in terms of class, was sent off at 66-1 but did not do that badly. He was mid-pack and raced evenly; putting in a mild rally at the end to get 5th.

Gulfstream also had the Grade 2 Swale Stakes at 7 furlongs. One Derby hopeful, Catcominatcha broke down and was vanned off. I don't know the outcome but I hope the horse was not put down. Sharp Humor, Mark Guidry up, won by a hard fought neck at 13-1. The favorite, Noonmark, was closing down the lane but ran out of track and just missed. I don't think any Derby hopefuls will be coming out of this sprint.

Out West, Santa Anita held the Grade 2 Santa Catalina Stakes run at 1-1/16th miles. Brother Derek (1-2, Alex Solis) prompted the pace from 3rd and gradually moved up to win by 1-3/4 lenghts under steady hand-urging. Looks like his last race was for real. The lone closer in the field, Sacred Light (19-1, Aaron Gryder) swung to the outside and put in a strong close to clearly get 2nd. Pace setter Latent Heat went off 3-1 under Patrick Valenzuela and had to settle for a tiring 3rd. Quick fractions of 23.27; 46.31; 1:10.31 did this Derby hopeful in. Compared to the Fountain of Youth, I would argue Brother Derek's win was more impressive. Brother Derek will be one of the favorites the 1st Saturday in May.

Kentucky's Turfway Park held the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at 1-1/16th miles. 6-1 Laity under Corey Lanerie had the early lead, relinquished it after the opening quarter mile in 23.75 and then commenced a rally up the rail to get up by a half length. Longshot Pair of Kings (33-1, Richard Bracho) closed from dead last to get 2nd and was coming like gangbusters on the outside. Keep in mind that Turfway's surface is the new polytrack that uses a rubberized product making it easy on the horses feet and making it a bit deeper than the traditional dirt surface.

A good weekend of racing. Next weekend, the California Derby will be run at Golden Gate Fields. Followed by 4 more stakes on March 18th.

Racetrack Lenny

2 More Preps

2006-02-26T20:13:00.000-05:00

The Southwest Stakes was run yesterday at Oaklawn Park. This race was originally scheduled for President's Day; but, the track came up frozen and racing was called for the day. This gave the entrants the benefit of 5 extra days rest. Derby hopeful Lawyer Ron, John McKee up, was sent off as the prohibitive 1/2 favorite and did not disappoint. Lawyer Ron was being rated hard by jockey McKee and always led by a length or better in winning wire to wire. Instead of opening him up in the stretch, McKee knew he had the best horse and he did just enough to win. Smart move in conserving energy for another day. Nice race for this hopeful, keep an eye on him.

Meanwhile out west, Sunland Park had the Borderland Derby today. Derby hopefuls Doctor Decherd and Plagiarist, sent off 6/5 and 9/5 respectively, showed little in this mile and a sixteenth contest. Shaun Bridgmohan,in to ride Dr. Decherd, kept the good Dr.with the pace in 4th position and was done by the 3/4 mark. The fractions were very swift- 22.74; 45:69; 1:10.62 with the final time in 1:44:82. 9-1 shot Indy Wildcat, Michael Baze up, stalked the leading Diasppearing Trick (5-1); and, in an all out drive, won by a head. Derby fever may strike Indy Wildcat's connections; but, this was a grueling race for Indy. Let's see where his next start is and whether he will bounce off this good effort.

4 major stakes races next weekend: The Santa Catalina at Santa Anita Park; the Swale at Gulfstream; the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream; and the John Battaglia at Turfway Park. With these 4 stakes, the Derby season is officially open.

Racetrack Lenny

2006 Triple Crown Journey

2006-02-19T13:26:00.000-05:00

With the first daffodils poking their heads through the ground, thoughts turn to that first Saturday in May.

Thus far, Stevie Wonderboy, First Samurai, Brother Derek, and Achilles of Troy have stamped themselves as legitimate contenders on the triple crown trail. This weekend, one more can be added to the list: Bluegrass Cat. Bluegrass Cat, Johnny Velasquez up, won Saturday's Sam F. Davis Stakes run at a mile and a sixteenth at Tampa Bay Downs. Sent off as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite, Bluegrass Cat eked out a hard fought victory just starting to pull away about 100 feet from the wire to beat 63-1 Deputy Glitters. The time of the race was on the slowish side. Four other Derby contenders ran in this event: Laptop Computer, Hesanoldsalt, Pegasusbystorm and Blazing Rate. Of the four, Hesanoldsalt was the best. However, he finished 6th passing tiring rivals and showed little at 6/1. Laptop Computer, sent off at 9-1, set the pace and wilted in the stretch--not a good sign for a horse looking to go the Derby distance. Pegasusbystorm, off at 33-1, finished 8th and was never a factor. Blazing Rate, off at 9-1, showed nothing running last all the way until he passed a badly tiring Sweet Grass Creek. Off this race, I don't think the Derby winner will be coming out of Tampa Bay.

At Sam Houston Park, the Jim's Orbit was run at a mile. Derby hopeful Upstream off at 3/5, set the pace and tired to get 3rd. Given that the fractions were 24.18 and 48.66, it would seem Upstream will be up against it. Brick Fight, off at 41-1 won the race after running second all the way until pulling away in the stretch to win by 3-1/2 widening lenghts. Brick Fight's connections must be getting Derby fever by now.

Stay tuned. March promises a slew of prep races and that's when things start to get serious.

May the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

Belmont Picks

2005-06-10T20:33:00.000-04:00

On paper, Afleet Alex will win tomorrow, pay about $3.00 and everybody goes home a winner. So, the Belmont shapes up as a poor betting race. The value will be in the exotic bets such as the trifecta and superfecta. However, I am not convinced that Afleet Alex is the mortal lock he is being made out to be. For the sake of racing, I surely hope he does win, it would be an emotional win after what this horse has endured this year.

When you look at Afleet Alex's record, every time he has posted a triple-digit speed rating, he has followed it up with a high double digit speed rating. Even with his every other race regression, he has still won or finished in the money. Tomorrow brings 3 new challenges: 1) Has his incident in the Preakness taken something out of him? 2) Can Afleet Alex get the 1-1/2 mile distance and 3) Can Jeremy Rose not get too nervous and push the button too soon in a long race? I think Afleet Alex will be beaten.

My picks are Southern Africa and Andromeda's Hero. Southern Africa has raced in various stakes races and is a horse on the improve. His speed ratings have been on the upswing with his last effort, a win in the Lone Star Derby, recording a speed rating of 96. If Southern Africa improves off that race and Afleet Alex regresses, Southern Africa may be able to pull off an upset. He has tactical speed and the question will be distance. I also wish his owners/trainers had decided to go with a jockey who has raced in the Belmont before. They have kept Jon Court as the jockey. But, I think back to 1990 when Go and Go won with Michael Kinane who had never raced at Belmont.

Andromeda's Hero ran 8th in the Ky. Derby which sounds awful but it was actually better than it looked. He was far back early and when he was finally able to shake loose in mid-stretch, he closed from 14th to 8th, being beaten 7 lengths. Nick Zito decided to give him 5 weeks rest and have him train at Saratoga's Oklahoma Training Track which has a very deep surface, much like Belmont. He is a one-run closer; but, he has shown in the past that he can be within 8 lenghts of the front; so, a strong effort tomorrow can put him in the picture.

Giacomo merits some respect because he is a grinder type horse that always runs a speed figure of between 95 to 100 which will be good enough to allow him to get a suck up 3rd or 4th. He's a must-use in the exotic bets.

I can't see Afleet Alex finishing worse than 4th; so, he is thrown into the mix at the bottom of the exotics.

For superfecta betting purposes, we can throw in a few deep closing longshots such as Nolan's Cat, Indy Storm and Chekhov.

My bets:

$5WPS- #4-Southern Africa and #7- Andromeda's Hero

$2 Exacta- #4-Southern Africa, #7-Andromeda's Hero OVER #4-Southern Africa, #5- Giacomo, #7- Andromeda's Hero and #9- Afleet Alex

$2 Trifecta- #4-Southern Africa, #7- Andromeda's Hero OVER #4- Southern Africa, #5- Giacomo, #7- Andromeda's Hero, #9- Afleet Alex OVER #1- Nolan's Cat, #5- Giacomo, #9- Afleet Alex, #10- Indy Storm, #11- Chekhov.

$1 Superfecta- 4,7 OVER 4,7 OVER 1,5,9,10,11 OVER 1,5,9,10,11

Good luck, may the horse be with you.

Racetrack Lenny

Belmont Field of 11

2005-06-08T16:58:00.000-04:00

The drawing was held this afternoon for Saturday's Belmont Stakes. 11 horses are entered. Although the track handicapper has yet to assign the morning-line odds, figure on Afleet Alex being, at best, even money. The field is:

1. Nolan's Cat- Norberto Arroyo, Jr.
2. Pinpoint- John Velasquez
3. A.P. Arrow- Jerry Bailey
4. Southern Africa- Jon Court
5. Giacomo- Mike Smith
6. Watchmon- Javier Castellano
7. Andromeda's Hero- Rafael Bejarano
8. Reverberate- Jose Santos
9. Afleet Alex- Jeremy Rose
10.Indy Storm- Edgar Prado
11.Chekhov- Gary Stevens

It's an interesting field. The supporting card on Belmont Stakes Saturday is nothing short of sensational. If you get the chance, you should come out.

Picks later in the week.

Racetrack Lenny

Belmont A Week Away

2005-06-05T18:40:00.000-04:00

With no triple crown to draw out the crowds, Belmont Park has scaled back its expected attendance from 100,000 to 70,000. Last year, a record throng of 123,000 showed up only to see Smarty Jones get passed by Birdstone (34-1) in the final strides.

Afleet Alex will be Saturday's stand-out and likely will be odds-on. Figure on 4/5 to 7/5. Can the amazing Afleet Alex be beat? I think so. When you look at Afleet Alex's racing record, he follows a sensational performance with a less stellar one. While he still finishes in the money, I will look to side with others, especially given Afleet Alex's low odds. We'll see what the field looks like when it gets announced this coming Wednesday.

Giacomo will attract some money because his will be a familiar name. He won the Derby and finished a non-threatening 3rd in the Preakness. I doubt Giacomo can win the Belmont since the Belmont has never been kind to deep closers like Giacomo. The Belmont usually goes to a horse that is in the top 4 or 5 at every call of the race. Many Belmonts have been won in gate to wire fashion.

A.P. Arrow is an interesting entry. He broke his maiden at Churchill Downs after the Derby. He won his first race at a mile and a quarter and won in faster time than the Derby. He came out of that race well and the horse is bred to run all day. However, he has never run against top caliber horses that he will face on Saturday. So, an interesting possibility. We'll see where his odds are.

Nick Zito will have a three-some in the Belmont: Andromeda's Hero (8th in the Derby), Pinpoint (winner of the Sir Barton at Pimlico) and a surprise entry in Indy Storm, winner of an allowance race at Belmont. Indy Storm's only credential is that he is bred to run all day having A.P. Indy bloodlines.

Scrappy T will not run in the Belmont. The owner and trainer conceded that he just cannot get that distance. So, we won't have to worry about Scrappy T going wide on the turns.

For the first time in a long time, a maiden will run in the Belmont: Nolan's Cat. Whatever the owner/trainer are thinking is impossible to decipher. The horse has no chance.

Racetrack Lenny

"The Strangles"- An Unexpected Belmont Entry

2005-05-29T17:50:00.000-04:00

"The Strangles" has surfaced at Belmont Park. No, not the horse-the strep related infection that affects a horses lymph nodes. The infection, which is highly contagious, swells a horse's lymph nodes thus restricting the airways. The horse seems to be fighting for breath and can be heard wheezing; hence, the name "the strangles".

One horse came up sick this week and has been sent to the University of Illinois Equine Clinic where vets will try to determine how this illness progresses and if there might be a way to create a vaccine to keep horses healthy, especially at the height of horse racing's season. Thus far, Belmont has quarantined 3 barns, the barn which housed the infected horse, and the 2 barns adjoining the affected barn. In addition, Belmont has frozen any entries from Churchill Downs and Delaware Park where "the Strangles" has been confirmed. The net effect is short fields and a lot of fear that this could be a summer of slim pickings.

Will this affect the Belmont Stakes? I think so, it already has. Tim Ritchey, trainer of Afleet Alex, had planned to ship his charge to Belmont yesterday in order to train him there and get him acclimated to Belmont's wide sweeping turns. Instead, Ritchey has decided to keep Afleet Alex in training at Pimlico, the track where Afleet Alex showed his amazing athleticism in the Preakness. While the New York Racing Association (NYRA) will try to bill the Belmont as a showdown between Giacomo and Afleet Alex, there is the possibility that neither will come to race if the illness becomes widespread. That would also apply to horses that would ship in. Would you ship in a valuable horse to have him get sick? I don't think so.

The incubation period for "the strangles" appears to be 10-14 days and the illness itself lasts about 7 days. The horse struggles to breathe, runs a fever and loses appetite. While it appears it can be treated with antibiotics, the illness is similar to a bad flu in humans. Once a horse recovers, it takes as long as 3 months before the horse is back to its old self. This was the case when "the strangles" first made its appearance during the winter at Gulfstream Park.

Right now, we'll take a wait and see approach.

Racetrack Lenny

Miracles Do Happen- Afleet Feet!

2005-05-22T16:08:00.000-04:00

What could have ended as one of the most horrific incidents in the Triple Crown series turned into a fairy tale ending that just took one's breath away. Yesterday's victory by Afleet Alex was the greatest display of athleticism I have ever seen or probably will see. Anything negative I've ever said about Jeremy Rose is taken back and officially retracted! He showed his incredible athleticism by hanging on for dear life (and, yes, he could have been killed) and somehow getting Afleet Alex to right himself up--and go on to win by nearly 5 widening lengths.

For those that missed the race, here's what happened. Scrappy T (Ramon Dominguez up) had convincingly taken over the lead from High Limit midway on the far turn. As the field turned for home, Scrappy T had the lead and Afleet Alex was commencing a powerful rally on the outside passing horses one by one. Just when Afleet Alex was getting poised to surpass Scrappy T, Ramon Dominguez went to the whip and Scrappy T ducked away from the whip by swerving sharply to the right cutting off Afleet Alex. They clipped heels with the result being that Afleet Alex went down on his knees with his nose just barely off the track and Jeremy Rose hanging onto Afleet Alex's mane for dear life. Somehow, Afleet Alex managed not to fall and Jeremy Rose somehow managed to hang on. Once Afleet Alex was back up, Jeremy Rose went to the whip, angled Afleet Alex to the inside of Scrappy T and Afleet Alex took command and drew off for the victory. What could have been a tragedy will become the stuff of legend.

To the immense credit of both jockeys, they displayed unbelievable class about the incident. Jeremy Rose admitted he thought this was where everything would end; but, he didn't fault Ramon Dominguez. He knew Ramon would never do something like this on purpose. That's the good thing about both these jockeys having raced in the Maryland, Pennsylvania and New Jersey circuits. They know each other and have a great respect for one another. For his part, Ramon Dominguez felt awful that he imperiled another rider for a situation he had little ability to control. This was Dominguez's first time aboard Scrappy T and, for whatever reason, the horse got spooked causing him to blow the far turn--exactly as Scrappy T had done in the Withers Stakes in April. Norberto Arroyo was aboard in the Withers and the failure to negotiate the turn caused him to be dumped in favor of Dominguez. Now we know it's not the jockey, it's the horse. Dominguez apologized profusely to Jeremy Rose and showed real class.

As for Scrappy T, thoroughbred racing should have a rule similar to what harness racing has. In harness racing, if a horse breaks stride in 2 races, he has to run a qualifying race in order to demonstrate that his bad habits have been overcome. Thoroughbred racing should consider a similar rule. Things worked out great yesterday; but, what if they didn't? Scrappy T has blown turns in his career and obviously isn't over his tendency to continue to do it. He should have to demonstrate in some form of qualifying race that his bad habits have been cured.

For those that followed my win, place, show and exacta bets, congratulations. It was a nice payoff that made up for the fluky Derby.

Now, on to Belmont on June 11th. Stay tuned.

Racetrack Lenny

One Hit Wonder? Preakness is Here

2005-05-20T17:45:00.000-04:00

If someone had told you early Derby day morning that a horse running a speed rating of 100 would win the roses, you would have cut off his mint juleps right then and there. Well, that's what happened. Giacomo ran a 100 speed rating and captured the roses. Hey, he won it fair and square. He was the best horse that day. When you see isolated replays of that race, Giacomo had the trip of a lifetime. Everytime he needed a seam to run through, it just opened up. When the front runners melted down like a nuclear reactor, Giacomo picked up the pieces.

Can the same thing happen in the Preakness? Well, anything is possible; but, I don't think it's likely. 1) Pimlico plays kinder to speed with its hard surface and very tight turns. 2) The Preakness is a 16th of a mile shorter and 3) Pimlico has a shorter stretch.

The pace is likely to be very fast once again. Going Wild, who has no chance of winning this race, will set fast fractions out of post position 14. High Limit in post 11 will be right up close to the pace and if he slugs it out with Going Wild, the same last place finish for him can result. High Fly, Greeley's Galaxy, Scrappy T and Galloping Grocer are the other speed horses.

My picks: Scrappy T, Noble Causeway, Wilko, Afleet Alex.

Scrappy T- comes into the race as a fresh face and on the improve. His last race was the Grade 3 Withers at Aqueduct where he showed a speed rating of 102 and won after stalking the pace. He showed in that race that he could rate and not need the lead. My one concern is that Scrappy T's connections have dumped Norberto Arroyo in favor of Ramon Dominguez. I think Arroyo is the better rider; but, we'll see how this works out. Scrappy T is a hard knocker and just grinds it out. His worst showing was a distant 3rd in the Wood Memorial when Bellamy Road freaked that day and won by 17 lenghts. Scrappy T is a legit contender and will at least have a say in the outcome. Expect Scrappy T to go off between 15-1 and 20-1.

Afleet Alex- He got beaten a length in the Derby when Jeremy Rose tried to come up the rail when the rail was dead all day at Churchill Downs. That was a jockey mistake. Afleet Alex was full of run but he just started to tire with about 100 yards left to go. If you go back to his Arkansas Derby speed rating of 108, you know he has the speed to close from not too far off the pace. The trick is for this novice jockey to be patient and keep the horse in the 2 or 3 path coming down the stretch. Afleet Alex just got outkicked in the Derby; but, his pattern is that he bounces back strongly after a lesser effort. Because Giacomo will be a name everyone in the crowd will know, Afleet Alex may go off at 5/2 which would be a square price on him.

Noble Causeway- Watching isolated replays of the race, Noble Causeway's journey in the Derby was the total opposite of Giacomo's trip. Noble Causeway was soundly bumped twice, was twice in close quarters forcing Gary Stevens to take up with him and when it looked like there was a hole to run through, the hole closed. The question is "Did that trip spook him or did it make him a tougher horse?" We'll see tomorrow. I am willing to toss out the Derby and go back to his earlier form. If he runs to his Florida Derby form, he will be coming hard at the end. His 14th place finish in the Derby may give you double digit odds. I think he could go off at 10-1 to 12-1.

Wilko- Someday, someday this horse has got to break through again. He was closing fast in the Derby closing from 16th to 6th after being trapped behind a wall of horses with nowhere to go. On his best, he is dangerous and he can close from way back or stalk the pace depending on what's needed. A very versatile horse that somehow finds every excuse in the book to not win. Still, he has been in the money 5 out of his 8 races and it's hard to make him a throw out. Expect 6-1 to 10-1 on him.

TRIFECTA AND SUPERFECTA: For 3rd and 4th, a good case can be made for Greeley's Galaxy who may have the lead but be fading near the end. Also, the local "horse for the course" is Malibu Moonshine. Malibu Moonshine has run 5 times over the Pimlico strip last winning the Frederico Tesio stakes in a carriage horse time earning a speed rating of 82. However, he knows the course, Steve Hamilton knows Pimlico and someone is bound to get a suck-up 4th. Malibu Moonshine would not be the worst longshot stab in the world.

MY BETS:

I'll do a $2 Exacta part wheel: Scrappy T, Noble Causeway, Afleet Alex OVER Scrappy T, Noble Causeway, Afleet Alex and Wilko. (total cost $18)

$5 WPS- Scrappy T, Afleet Alex. (total cost $30)

$1 Trifecta: Scrappy T, Afleet Alex OVER Scrappy T, Afleet Alex OVER Noble Causeway, Wilko, Greeley's Galaxy, Malibu Moonshine. (total cost $8)

$1 Superfecta: Scrappy T, Afleet Alex OVER Scrappy T, Afleet Alex OVER Noble Causeway, Wilko, Greeley's Galaxy, Malibu Moonshine OVER Noble Causeway, Wilko, Greeley's Galaxy, Malibu Moonshine. (total cost $16- I think)

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

Preakness Watch

2005-05-14T18:36:00.000-04:00

It still appears there will be a full field of 14 for the Preakness this coming Saturday at Pimlico. As of today, it appears the field will consist of Giacomo, Closing Argument, Afleet Alex, Wilko, Greeley's Galaxy, High Limit, Malibu Moonshine, Scrappy T, Hal's Image, Galloping Grocer, High Fly, Noble Causeway, Sun King and Going Wild.

High Limit who fared poorly in the Derby picks up Edgar Prado. Prado is the regular rider for Sun King and has deserted that one. Obviously, he's lost a bit of confidence in Sun King who appears to be regressing at the wrong time. However, High Limit's Derby was such a clunker that one has to wonder if there isn't something wrong. Greeley's Galaxy's connections were quick to give Kent Desormeaux the hook replacing him with David Flores.

I think trainer Nick Zito will at most run 2 of his horses on Saturday. Sun King, Noble Causeway and High Fly are scheduled to work early this coming week and Zito will make up his mind. I think Sun King will get rested until the late summer. High Fly seems the likely starter. Noble Causeway's Derby was so bad it is indicative of something wrong or it could be the horse just didn't care for the track and you can toss out the race.

The Preakness is well known for always having the "horse for the course". This year, that horse is Malibu Moonshine who won the Frederico Tesio in a very tepid time. Still, a win is a win and Malibu Moonshine could have a say in the outcome. The gutsy New York based Scrappy T will go in the Preakness after his victory in the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct in New York. Scrappy T showed a new dimension in the Withers, rating off the pace to come on and win by 3. A surprise is Galloping Grocer who appears to be distance challenged; however, he will ensure a lively pace.

Giacomo will not be the favorite; but, he will get some action at the windows since he is now a well known name. If he goes off double-digit odds, he may be worth a few bucks. The Preakness has been won more than a few times by a closer (remember Gate Dancer and Deputed Testamony). Even though Bellamy Road and Bandini are both injured and unable to race, there is still a lot of speed in the Preakness with Going Wild likely being the pacesetter. With that type of speed, it could be set up again for a closer. As of today, I am liking Afleet Alex's chances if he can get a clean trip.

Racetrack Lenny

D. Wayne Lukas-Give Giacomo A Break, Will Ya?

2005-05-10T21:16:00.000-04:00

Leave it to D. Wayne Lukas who has a nose for a camera to state the obvious that Giacomo will not be a triple crown winner this year. Could he at least allow Giacomo's connections to enjoy one day in the sun dreaming their triple crown dream? D. Wayne Lukas- a keen sense of the obvious. Or, is it that obvious?

The Preakness promises to attract a big field because all of a sudden the unbeatables seem quite ordinary. Can lightning strike twice? Yes it can. If the full field materializes and there is a pace meltdown, you might very well see little Giacomo gobbling up horses in the stretch. Stranger things have happened. And what does D. Wayne Lukas have in the Preakness? Drumroll, please: A.P. Arrow, a horse that has yet to break his maiden. That's right, folks. Lukas' great hope is a maiden. 'Nuff said.

By the way, should both Bandini and Spanish Chestnut try again in the Preakness, they will be coupled in the wagering so that the fraud perpetrated by Churchill Downs on the gambling public won't be duplicated. Shame on Churchill Downs management to allow such a farce.

New York based Scrappy T, winner of the Withers at Aqueduct, is being pointed to the Preakness. He has the tactical speed to be a factor. A fresh horse for the course.

All for now,

Racetrack Lenny

There's A Reason They Call It Gambling

2005-05-08T10:09:00.000-04:00

Credit a friend from Connecticut with this entry's title. His wife had Giacomo across the board, as did my sister. At least I got to visit the cashier's window after the race. I also collected some minor consoloation money on Afleet Alex's show pay-off.

The question on many minds: What the #$#$ happened? Let's see if we can figure it out.

Bellamy Road had been coronated before the race was run. Sent off as the 5/2 favorite, there was a lot of money on Bellamy given that there was $26 Million in the win pool. As I mentioned in previous posts, the Derby is the only race in America where the horse that gets the trip wins the race. The best horse doesn't necessarily win or even get close. The only horse who ran the race of his career was Closing Argument who was up close to the torrid pace; yet, managed to get 2nd just missing by a 1/2 length.

As expected, Spanish Chestnut, who had no chance of winning, went out and slugged it out with Going Wild for a mile. The 1st quarter in 22-1/5 immediately told me a closer was going to win. At that point, I liked where my horses were sitting: Sun King had settled into 9th, Noble Causeway was 12th, Afleet Alex was 11th and Wilko was 13th-all off the pace. But, Bellamy Road was 3rd just a length off the leaders and no matter how much a wonder horse you are, a 22-1/5 quarter will take its toll in a mile and a quarter race. At this point in the race, Giacomo had 2 horses beat- Don't Get Mad and Greater Good.

The half mile went in 45-1/5, a suicidal pace. Still Spanish Chestnut and Going Wild. Bellamy Road had taken back to 5th as jockey Javier Castellano realized they were blazing. It would turn out that the first quarter split was going to come back to haunt him. My 4 horses were still settled in the same position as at the quarter mile. I was cautiously optimistic.

3/4's of a mile in 1:09-2/5 would be a good 6 furlong time; yet, there was a distance to go. Spanish Chestnut was still hanging on; Going Wild was starting to back up and, surprisingly, it was Flower Alley who now was going to try to match strides with the Chestnut. High Fly was in gear and moved up to 3rd while Bellamy Road was still biding his time in 5th. My horses were still in the back of the pack; but, there was time to get moving. Keep in mind that at this split, Giacomo was 18th with 15 lenghts to make up.

At the top of the stretch, 71-1 Closing Argument was threatening to pull off the huge upset. But, Afleet Alex was in gear along the rail with Bellamy Road now pulling off the rail to be 4 wide and 3rd just a head off the lead. Wilko was now moving on the outside into 10th and I was starting to have some hope that I would catch an Afleet Alex/Wilko exacta. What I didn't see as a blur 10 wide on the outside was Giacomo surging from 18th, circling the field and being set down for the drive.

Bellamy Road took the lead for about 3 seconds in mid-stretch when that opening 22-1/5 quarter began to take its toll. Shockingly, Closing Argument was not folding his tent and Jeremy Rose was all over Afleet Alex asking for one last burst of energy. But, it was not to be as Giacomo shocked them all to pull off the 50-1 upset. You could handicap this race all day and never come up with him as a legitimate contender. That's why they call it gambling.

As long as Churchill Downs allows 20 horses into the starting gate, you will never have an honest horserace. Form goes out the window because luck takes over. It becomes a case of the horse that has the best trip, gets the win. If you look at the replay, Giacomo had the cleanest trip of all. If you read the chart of the race, Bellamy Road and Noble Causeway were both soundly bumped a few times during the race. Bellamy Road also didn't handle the huge crowd well--he was pretty lathered up in the paddock, never a good sign. Bandini was jittery as well and he was, perhaps, the race's biggest disappointment being sent off as the 3rd choice and finishing 19th. Perhaps it serves his owner's right- They owned both Bandini and Spanish Chestnut and the knuckleheads at Churchill Downs allowed them to run uncoupled in the wagering. The Chestnut's mission was to set a suicidal pace to allow Bandini to close from off the pace. Bandini was 7th early and steadily went backwards from there. So much for strategy.

As for the Racing Form, a waste of $5. When you examined every angle of the race, you couldn't have possibly come up with the top 2. Both from a speed rating point of view and experience, they just did not figure. Go figure!

Congratulations to those who had Giacomo. With his record, you needed to get a huge price for the risk being taken and you were handsomely rewarded. To whomever had the superfecta which paid $1.7 Million, congratulations. Remember me in your will, please. How the winning person came up with that combination will be the talk of the coming year.

As they say in racing, turn the page. It's off to the Preakness. Afleet Alex's trainer has already committed to running. Giacomo will have no choice but to run to see if there is the slimmest hope of a triple crown. The Preakness, in two weeks, could attract a big field as the best of the spring went from mortal locks to mere mortals. Should be interesting.

Racetrack Lenny

Tougher Than It Looks

2005-05-06T12:06:00.000-04:00

A week ago, you would have put all your money on Bellamy Road and your handicapping was over. But, Bellamy Road drew Post Position 16 and it makes things both interesting and hard to handicap.

Bellamy Road is certainly a deserving favorite. His breakthrough performance in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 9th was the stuff of legend. He ran a 120 speed figure, the fastest for any Derby prep race ever. However, I was there and Aqueduct was souped up more than the track at the Indy 500. Earlier races that day by maidens at 6 furlongs were being run in near record time. That doesn't take anything away from Bellamy Road because he was just dominant in that race. Going Wild tried to stay with him and was beaten 41 lengths. Post 16 may allow you to get better than even money odds and at 5-2 morning line, that would be a gift.

The question remains: Did the Wood take something out of Bellamy Road, could he bounce off that effort? I think the answer is yes; but, even if he regresses to run a speed figure of between 100-105, he still is in the picture. He's tough to throw out.

Who can beat Bellamy Road? I'll make a case for 4 horses.

1) Sun King: He certainly ran a great race at Gulfstream Park in his 3 year old debut, putting up a speed figure of 104 at one mile. He stalked the pace and drew off in the stretch. He next surfaced at Tampa Bay Downs in the Tampa Bay Derby, got sent off at 1-20 (yes, a nickle to the dollar) led all the way to win by 3 and showed a speed rating of 91 against a very, very weak field. He then ran in the Blue Grass, was 6 lenghts back throughout and finished 4th beaten 9 lenghts while posting his 2nd lowest speed rating of his career-88. In the Blue Grass, he raced wide throughout and he may not have cared for Keeneland's deeper surface. While he certainly seems to be regressing and does not instill confidence, his record is eerily similar to 1995 Derby winner, Thunder Gulch. Thunder Gulch seemed to be regressing after brilliant early races, got sent off at 25-1 in the 1995 Derby and won. Why do I like him: He has Edgar Prado, an excellent veteran jockey who has ridden in high-pressure situations. He also comes out of Post 3 which will allow him to secure a ground saving trip at the rail and be in the 1st 6 or 7 horses. Finally, we know he can get a triple digit speed rating on his best--maybe tomorrow we see his best.

2) Wilko- Has not had a triple digit speed rating; but, he's going in the right direction having last closed to get 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby-missing by 1/2 a length. That impressed me because Wilko closed into a slow pace set by Buzzard's Bay. Wilko won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile last year which automatically jinxed him for the Derby. No BCJ winner has won the Derby. This could be the race that breaks the jinx. If the Red Sox did it, so can Wilko. One drawback is Post 14; but, if jockey Corey Nakatani can get him away in good order and secure a position in mid-pack, he could be heard from at the end, especially with the expected hot pace.

3) Afleet Alex: A gem of consistency with his out of the money finish in the Rebel Stakes being a complete throwout. In that race, he finished 6th beaten 12 lenthts; but, he came out of that race the next day with a lung infection. After rest and anti-biotics, he came back strong in the Arkansas Derby winning by 8 widening lengths and posting his best ever speed rating (108). That being said, his form cycle shows that he had always run a high double digit speed figure after each triple digit effort. However, he has won even the high double digit races. Another concern of mine is the inexperienced Jeremy Rose as the jockey--but, the kid seems to really know this horse; so, I will let it go. Finally, Afleet Alex fits the profile of a Derby winner. He is a closer from off the pace; but, he never comes from out of the clouds to win it. He is no worse than mid-pack and if the pace meltdown happens, Afleet could be picking up the pieces. Jeremy Rose has to be very patient and very careful not to let Afleet Alex duck in or drift out in the stretch which Afleet Alex is fond of doing. If he does and interferes with another runner, you could see your first Derby DQ in a long time.

4) Noble Causeway: With Giant's Causeway of Ireland as his daddy, we know Noble Causeway can get the distance. The horse is bred to run all day. His last race was a nice 2nd in the Florida Derby where he got a speed rating of 100. His speed ratings in 2005 have been 77, 85, 96 and 100. Clearly, a horse moving in the right direction. He is at the peak of a form cycle and is hard to leave out as he is another closer who can pick up the pieces at the end. Veteran Gary Stevens rides which is a huge plus. He is a patient rider with a good clock in his head and will know when to make his move.

For the Superfecta, is there a bomb that can get 4th? Absolutely. Buzzard's Bay can be in that mix as can Giacomo and Sort it Out.

So, how do you bet this? Here's what I'm doing:

$1 Exacta: Sun King/Wilko/Noble Causeway/Afleet Alex OVER Sun King/Wilko/Noble Causeway/Afleet Alex/Bellamy Road. ($20- 20 combinations).

$10 Exacta: Bellamy Road OVER Afleet Alex/Wilko/Noble Causeway/Sun King ($40- 4 combinations)

$1 Trifecta: Sun King/Noble Causeway/Afleet Alex OVER Sun King/Wilko/Noble Causeway/Afleet Alex/Bellamy Road OVER Bellamy Road/Giacomo/Buzzard's Bay/Sort It Out ( $36- 36 combinations-if I did my math right)

$1 Superfecta: Sun King/Wilko OVER Sun King/Wilco OVER Bellamy Road, Afleet Alex, Noble Causeway OVER Giacomo/Sort it Out/Buzzard's Bay ($18- 18 combinations if I did my math right).

$5 WPS- Sun King/Wilko ($30)

$10 WPS- Bellamy Road/Afleet Alex ($60)

Total Bets: $194.

Good luck, bet with your head, not over it. If you're smashed, let someone sober manage your money.

May the horse be with you.

Racetrack Lenny

Consolidator- Out

2005-05-03T20:05:00.000-04:00

Consolidator, D. Wayne Lukas' hope for the Roses, has been retired from racing after fracturing a sesamoid while training. Fortunately, the injury was not life threatening and the horse will be fine, just won't be able to race.

All this works well for Greeley's Galaxy, the Illinois Derby winner, who was on the outside looking in and now appears in--should his connections make the supplemental payment.

Buzzard's Bay, Closing Argument, Coin Silver and Sort It Out all had useful workouts today. All were sharp and they look primed for Saturday.

Let's toss out a few pretenders here while we're at it. Spanish Chestnut is a throw-out and has no chance of winning. He will be a pace factor; but, he cannot get a mile and a quarter. Save your money for a mint julep, if you must imbibe this most foul tasting drink.

Buzzard's Bay had a lucky win in the Santa Anita Derby that was totally devoid of speed. There is no way that Buzzard's Bay will get away with having the lead and setting fractions of 24, 48, etc. Without an easy pace, Buzzard's Bay will be used up by the far turn.

Flower Alley is coming along nicely, but is too lightly raced and has to improve a lot to be near the winner's circle. Yes, he did get a suck-up 2nd in the Arkansas Derby; but, he was 8 lenghts back and Afleet Alex was pulling away.

Finally, we can dispatch Coin Silver from the mix. Yes, he won the Lexington by 3-1/2 lengths; but, he beat a weak field in a slow time. He will be facing Grade 1 stakes placed horses and this will not be the field he faced in the Lexington.

More to come tomorrow.

Racetrack Lenny

There Ought To Be A Law!

2005-05-02T20:21:00.000-04:00

Years ago, if a trainer or owner had more than one horse entered in a race, they were forced to couple them as an entry in the wagering. About 10 years ago or so, the law was changed so that if there was bonafide separate ownership interests with the same trainer, the horses would run uncoupled. The reasoning was that each owner wants to win the race and thus the betting public is not harmed.

That won't be the case on Saturday if Spanish Chestnut does indeed run for the Roses. There is some tie-in between the connections of Spanish Chestnut and Bandini. In fact, the trainer of Spanish Chestnut has publicly stated that Spanish Chestnut may serve as a rabbit for his uncoupled entrymate, Bandini. Well, at least we know the strategy before the race. If Spanish Chestnut draws an inside post, he will set the pace until he runs out of gas at the 3/4 pole. Churchill Downs officials should run them as 1 and 1A- an entry. As for Spanish Chestnut, the owners have a bad case of Derby fever. This horse cannot get the distance, he is a 6 furlong sprinter and has no chance of winning the Derby. He does not belong.

Other doings: High Fly worked 5 furlongs in 1:00:2/5; Noble Causeway went the 5 furlongs in 1:00 flat. Bellamy Road worked 5 furlongs in 1:00:2/5. Nick Zito was quite pleased with the results showing his stable of horses is razor sharp for Saturday.

Other works: Bandini worked 5 furlongs in 1:00-4/5, while stablemate Flower Alley worked the same distance in 1:00-3/5. D. Wayne Lukas' trained Going Wild went 5 furlongs in 59:1/5- a bullet work showing the horse is razor sharp. But, Going Wild was up the track in the Wood and I think he is a distance challenged horse. Jose Valdivia, Jr. has been named to ride.

As of today, no defections from the Derby field which keeps Don't Get Mad on the outside looking in. Don't Get Mad's owners have already made plans for the Preakness and are hoping for one defection from the Derby field to get Don't Get Mad in the run for the Roses. Don't get too excited as it is rare these days to have a horse come back with a super effort with only 6 days rest.

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny

A Yankee In The Winner's Circle??

2005-05-01T16:16:00.000-04:00

Could very well be. George Steinbrenner may have spent millions on his slumping Yankees; but, his $84,000 investment in Bellamy Road looks poised to give him a big return. That is, of course, if Bellamy Road wins as is now expected.

As of today, it looks like the full field of 20 will go in the Derby. In alphabetical order they are: Afleet Alex (Jeremy Rose); Andromeda's Hero (TBD); Bandini (John Velasquez); Bellamy Road (Javier Castellano); Buzzard's Bay (Mark Guidry); Closing Argument (Cornelio Velasquez); Coin Silver (Patrick Valenzuela); Consolidator (Rafael Bejarano); Flower Alley (Jorge Chavez); Giacomo (Mike Smith); Going Wild (TBD); Greater Good (John McKee); Greeley's Galaxy (Kent Desormeaux); High Fly (Jerry Bailey); High Limit (Ramon Dominguez); Noble Causeway (Gary Stevens); Sort It Out (Brice Blanc); Spanish Chestnut (Joe Bravo); Sun King (Edgar Prado) and Wilko (Corey Nakatani). If there are some defections, look for Don't Get Mad to try to get in off his impressive Derby Trial.

Bellamy Road is expected to be the post time favorite off his sensational run in the Wood Memorial where he tied the track record for the 1-1/8 mile distance and broke the Wood Memorial record. The track record is now shared with Riva Ridge who set the mark at Aqueduct in 1973. However, keep a few things in mind. Bellamy Road is lightly raced. He broke his maiden at 2 at first asking and then won another race before finishing 7th in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile at Keeneland. He emerged at Gulfstream Park on March 12th in an allowance race where he won for fun by 15 lengths with a speed rating of 96. He shows up in early April at the Wood Memorial and is sent off as the 2nd choice and ran the race of his young career winning by 17 widening lenghts and setting a speed rating of 120. That is sensational. But, the Wood was his 5th lifetime start and the improvement was so dramatic that one wonders if it took a little bit out of him. In my mind, he is the ultimate candidate to bounce off his Wood performance. However, even if he comes down to earth to a 100 or so speed rating, that is what some of the others in the race have been doing; so, an off day could still keep Bellamy Road very much in the picture. That's a scenario I hate--you want to beat the horse because he will offer no value at the expected low odds; yet, you have to use him because he is a legitimate contender.

Post position will play a huge factor in Bellamy Road's odds. If he gets post 1 through 10, you have the real possibility of an even money favorite or better. Post 11 through 20 may put him at 5/2 or higher making him worth a wager. We'll know on Thursday of this week.

Another reminder: The best horse does not always win the roses. The Derby is the world's ultimate trip race. A good trip, being in the right place at the right time can put you in the winner's circle.

I'll comment on the others during the week; but, you get the picture: I think Bellamy Road is beatable this coming Saturday.

Keep your mortgage money safe!

Racetrack Lenny

The Pretenders

2005-04-23T19:29:00.000-04:00

2 major stakes today and several contenders exposed as pretenders. First, the Lexington Stakes, Grade 2 at Keeneland.

Over a very sloppy track, 3/5 favorite, Rockport Harbor, was within 3 lengths of the lead and at the 3/4 pole was making a menacing move. He flattened out when the real running began and finished 6th. Rockport Harbor has been plagued by one minor injury after another and his connections indicated that he would have to run well in this race in order to get to the Derby. If Derby fever does not strike them, it looks like Rockport Harbor will sit the Derby out. I think he will be a good sprinter.

Closer Sort It Out (Brice Blanc up) closed from dead last to get second 3 lenghts behind the winner. So, Sort it Out re-establishes his credentials as a legitimate closer that can get lucky in the Derby.

Todd Pletcher's Coin Silver (Javier Castellano up) won the Lexington at 13-1. He sat 5th most of the way and then began to pick off horses one by one to win going away by 3-1/2. Coin Silver has Conquistador Cielo in his bloodline which makes Coin Silver a superior mudder. I think Coin Silver got lucky with the off track today.

Going Wild's owners indicated he had to have a good race to be Derby bound. Going Wild (Gary Stevens up) actually got the lead at the 3/4 pole and then tired badly in the stretch to finish 5th. I don't think we'll see Going Wild in the Derby.

Next, the Frederico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico, an ungraded stakes race at a mile and an eighth. One thing is for certain: The winner of the Ky.Derby will not come out of the Tesio. The race was negotiated in a mule-like 1:53-1/5, one of the slowest Tesio's ever. Even though the track was listed as fast, there was moisture in the track which made for heavier going; but, that was a slow time. Favorite Byanosejoe, ridden by Jose Santos, was sent off as the 3/5 favorite and finished 3rd with no apparent excuse. He made a menacing move at the head of the strecth and just flattened out. The winner, Malibu Moonshine, won by 3/4 of a lenghth over pacesetter Hello Jerry.

So, as of today it seems Bellamy Road will be the Derby favorite and his odds will be dictated by post position in the Derby. We'll follow remaining workouts for the next week and see who shows up at the Derby Trial next Saturday.

May the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

The Pre-Derby Mixed Bag

2005-04-17T14:16:00.000-04:00

2 major stakes races this weekend that served to make muddier waters even murkier.

The Blue Grass Stakes (Grade 1) run at Keeneland yesterday saw trainer Todd Pletcher come into the Derby picture with a nice going-away win for Bandini (John Velasquez up). Bandini stalked the pace being set by Spanish Chestnut and took command at the top of the stretch to win by 6 lengths at 3-1. Bobby Frankel's horse, High Limit (Ramon Dominguez up) ran evenly all the way around to finish 2nd. Closing Argument ran evenly to just neck out Sun King for the show spot at 12-1. The big disappointment in the race was Sun King (Edgar Prado up). Sun King was facing legitimate competition for the first time. You may recall his romp in the Tampa Bay Derby where he got sent off at 1-20 (that's right, a nickle to the dollar). On that day, Sun King faced a glorified cheap allowance field, this was a bit different. Sun King got an uncharacteristic poor ride by Prado who went the overland route- 3 and 4 wide at times and while he did almost get 3rd, he did not show his usual punch in the stretch. D.Wayne Lukas' Consolidator ran near the back of the pack and could not improve his position finishing 5th.

All this being said, Sun King and High Limit really didn't have to show much yesterday. They already qualify on the basis of earnings to get into the Kentucky Derby field; so, why totally tax the horse when an "in the money" or close to "in the money" finish will do? It looks like Sun King, a legitimate closer, is also a trip horse. Without a good trip, he will finish off the board. As for High Limit, I don't think he was really pushed hard. So, don't overlook these 2 in the Derby.

Before you jump on the Bandini bandwagon, consider the time of this 1-1/8th mile race: 1:50. A full 3 seconds slower than Bellamy Road's Wood Memorial. 3 seconds is open lenghts.

As for Spanish Chestnut, he once again proved he is at best a one mile horse. I think he would be a much better sprinter with 6 furlongs being his game. He does not belong in the Derby; but, his owners have a bad case of Derby fever and will likely get the Chestnut in where he will be a pace factor and nothing else.

At Oaklawn Park, the Arkansas Derby (Grade 2) was run and for those who loved Greater Good's big win in his last out at Oaklawn, you were rewarded with a 5th place finish. In his defense, Greater Good had post 10 which is hard to overcome at Oaklawn. Having to hustle a bit just to get good positioning may have tired him a bit. He was 8th most of the way and improved his position to finish a non-threatning 5th.

Afleet Alex (Jeremy Rose up) won the race by 8 widening lenghts showing that his lung infection is all cleared up. His time of 1:48-4/5 was quite decent; but, not quite the Wood Memorial time of 1:47. The connections of Afleet Alex had announced that John Velasquez would ride the horse during the triple crown races; however, Velasquez said yesterday that he will ride Bandini in the Derby. So, Afleet Alex's owners are now faced with keeping the kid, Jeremy Rose, or looking for a "name" rider. That will be a huge factor in Afleet Alex's playability in the Derby.

Todd Pletcher's lightly raced Flower Alley got 2nd after his win in the Lane's End. He just got outrun by a more experienced horse. Nick Zito's 5th string horse, Andromeda's Hero ran evenly at 10-1 to get 3rd.

As of now, it looks like Bellamy Road will be the Derby favorite off his win in the Wood. Sun King may be a 2nd or 3rd choice as will Afleet Alex. It will be a good betting race.

May the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

WOW

2005-04-10T18:50:00.000-04:00

Well, we finally got one of those breakthrough performances we were looking for in this pre-Derby season, and it came out of the Wood Memorial at New York's Aqueduct Racetrack. Bellamy Road (5/2) with Javier Castellano broke like a rocket and never looked back. He won by 17-1/2 (yes, seventeen and a half) widening lenghts setting a stakes record-the fastest Wood run in its 81 year history. Bellamy Road also tied the 1-1/8 mile track record set by Riva Ridge in 1973. It was IMPRESSIVE. Bellamy Road looks like the real deal and will likely be the Derby favorite. Survivalist just had enough to edge out a game Scrappy T who tried to keep up with Bellamy Road early and yet hung on for the show spot at 12-1. As for the others, none belong in the Derby. My pick, Naughty New Yorker, looked very common staggering home 5th.

The Bay Shore at 7 furlongs at Aqueduct, saw Lost In The Fog go off at .15 to the dollar and cruise home for the easy victory. His connections have already said they have no Derby plans. They will keep their horse sprinting. He is a good one.

The Illinois Derby at Hawthorne saw Greeley's Galaxy, Kent Desormeaux up, win by 9-1/2 lengths in 1:49-2/5. Before we get too excited, Bellamy Road covered the same distance in 1:47 flat over a super fast track at the Big A. One of my picks, Monarch Lane ran evenly to be 2nd. My pick, Rikman, went off just shy of 6/1 and raced mid-pack all the way around to get 4th. A disappointing performance. The biggest disappointment was Kansas City Boy. Prompting the pace being set by longshot Daddy Joe, K.C. Boy just ran out of gas on the far turn and staggered home last. Goodbye Derby for him.

At Santa Anita, we confirmed that there will not be a girl against the boys in the Derby. Sweet Catomine, off as the even money favorite with Corey Nakatani up, could do no better than 5th with no excuses. Yes, she was soundly bumped on the backstretch; but, as the field turned for home, she was 5th just 3 lengths off the lead and making a menacing move before flattening out. She just got tired. It was a paceless race and for those who bet my longshot special- General John B, you got rewarded when he finished 2nd at 64-1. He paid $40.40 to place and $15.60 to show.

Wilko ran a nice race with Frankie Dettori back on board. He was 8th in the early going and closed to get 3rd, just missing by a 1/2 length. However, keep in mind that the Santa Anita was covered in 1:49 while the Wood got negotiated in 1:47. Big difference.

So, my early Derby favorite- Sun King-has some real competition and may get sent off as the 3rd or 4th choice. Winning the Tampa Bay Derby at 1-20 odds against a cheap allowance field may not have been the tightener he needed. Bellamy Road got a real test and passed it with an A+.

All I could say when I saw Bellamy Road's performance yesterday was WOW. Wow, indeed.

Be well,

Racetrack Lenny

Weak Tea, Indeed

2005-04-08T22:18:00.000-04:00

A bunch of prep races for the Derby and it's a weak bunch going to the post tomorrow.

Bay Shore-Grade 3: Run at the Big A (Aqueduct-New York). In the past considered a good prep, this race has become a showplace for sprinters and it looks like this year is no different. What is different is that Lost In The Fog is in this race and on paper, towers over the field. Posting triple-digit Beyers in his 4 outings, look for him to get sent off at 1-10 or lower. The only other horse that could conceivably threaten if Lost In The Fog falters is Attila's Storm. Attila's Storm broke his maiden in January posting a 97 Beyer. A repeat of that could put him within a few lengths of the favorite. This is a nice race to watch and not bet.

Wood Memorial- Grade 1: the featured race at Aqueduct, the Wood comes up like a cup of weak tea. All the rage is about Bellamy Road, another Zito trainee, who is Zito's 4th string. He won by 15 last out; but, that was an allowance race at Gulfstream Park against an even weaker field. That win, with a 96 Beyer will make Bellamy Road a huge underlay. So, we'll look to beat him. Scrappy T picks up Rafael Bejarano and will have post position 1. With his speed, he will go right to the front. If he can get rated properly and have enough at the end, he can wire the field--at a decent price. There are 2 other speed horses in the field- Going Wild (pp 5) and Galloping Grocer (PP 7). Going Wild ships in from Santa Anita where the track is rock hard. West Coast horses seem to have a tough time with the deeper East Coast tracks; so, I'll take a shot against him. Galloping Grocer has real talent; but, his Beyers have been on the decline and I think he will definitely be a factor; but, I don't expect him to be there at the end. I will go with the closers- Survivalist, Pavo and Naughty New Yorker. Pavo may get overbet since he has attracted the services of Jerry Bailey. However, Naughty New Yorker may get totally overlooked and could go off at double digit odds. The bet: $2 Exacta: Survivalist, Pavo, Naughty New Yorker over Scrappy T for a total of $6. $5 WPS- Naughty New Yorker.

Illinois Derby- Grade 2: Run at Hawthorne, this came up a really weak race. Rikman (pp 4) is stepping up from an optional claiming race into a Grade 2 stakes race and is 5-1. That gives you an idea of how weak this race really is. However, Rikman does have a chance to be on or close to the lead and will be in the thick of things. Monarch Lane is listed at 6-1 and is making only his 3rd career start. He's another that likes to be close to the front. Kansas City Boy can be on the lead or come off the pace, he's listed at 7/2; however, he breaks from PP 9 which is a disadvantage because he will either have to be hustled to the front or held back and close--which would be something new for him. The bet: $2 Exacta Box: Monarch Lane, Rikman and Kansas City Boy (total $12). $2 WPS on Rikman.

Santa Anita Derby- Grade 1: This is Sweet Catomine's coming out party. The filly against the boys who has won 5 in a row against fillies. She does have one outstanding Beyer at 102 last October; but, she has been so-so since then. The 5 victories in a row and the filly against the boys angle will have her wildly overbet. Her owners have also publicly stated that they would run her in the Derby even if she finished in the top 4. So, one questions if they are really looking to win the race or just want to run well enough to get into the Derby.

The race doesn't shape up well for her. She comes from off the pace and the Santa Anita has come up as a paceless race. General John B, PP-6, is the lone speed in the race and if things set up right, he could be a live longshot. His Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park was dismal; but, if you throw out that race and look at his form at Santa Anita, this horse has the look of a longshot with a chance, at 20-1, I'll take a shot. Giacomo, PP-1, is a stalker and could be well positioned to pounce at the head of the stretch. 4-1 on him is generous. Don't Get Mad is a closer that can sometimes race mid-pack if he has to. If he does that tomorrow, look for him to get into the exotics. If you're looking for a real longshot, consider A.P. Arrow. He is wonderfully bred and trained by D. Wayne Lukas. He is still a maiden, having run only 1 race; so he is stepping up, to put it mildly. However, stranger things have happened and this isn't a field with standouts. The bet: $2 Exacta: General John B, Giacomo over General John B, Giacomo, Don't Get Mad & A.P. Arrow (total $12). $2 WPS each on General John B and A.P. Arrow.

National Pick 3: There is a National Pick 3 tomorrow combining the winners of the Carter Handicap at Aqueduct, the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct and the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne. I will make a $2 Pick 3 as follows: Carter Hdcp: Unforgettable Max, Medallist & Don Six. Wood Memorial: Scrappy T, Pavo, Naughty New Yorker. Illinois Derby: Rikman & Kansas City Boy (3x3x2=18x$2=$36) If the Pick 3 comes up- Unforgettable Max, Naughty New Yorker and Kansas City Boy, get ready to fill out a 1099, and bring a wheelbarrow.

Good luck,

Racetrack lenny

They're Running For Real

2005-04-03T19:04:00.000-04:00

Most seasons, you don't know if your Derby hopeful is out for a workout or is running for real. With some of the favorites knocked out of the Derby picture (e.g. Declan's Moon), a huge field is expected and so earnings become a factor. The only way to get earnings is to win races.

The Grade 1 Florida Derby showed that Nick Zito's High Fly is for real. Now 5 of 6, he stalked a brisk pace, grabbed the lead at the head of the stretch and looked good crossing the finish line at 6/5. He then ran on about another 1/8th of a mile to get that 1-1/4 under him. Zito now plans to rest High Fly right up to Derby day. Interesting tactic; however, everything Zito has tried with him has worked out beautifully. Another Zito trainee, Noble Causeway, ran a nice race, closing at the end and continued on past the finish line with good energy. This race helped him immensely. B.B. Best once again went to the lead, just as he did in the Fountain of Youth, and just as he did then, he gave way late. B.B. Best will be a good 7F horse.

Todd Pletcher had to be disappointed with Vicarage. Sent off at 7-1, he sat in 4th tracking the pace intently and was backing up at the end. If you're looking for an excuse, Vicarage hit the gate hard at the start and jockey John Velasquez moved him up aggressively while 4 wide and could not sustain that bid.

Maiden Papi Chullo is still a maiden and ran his worst race yet. He's had sensational workouts; but, he can't transfer those workouts onto the track. He was a real underlay at 9-1. It's time for his connections to put Papi Chullo in a maiden race so the horse can win and gain some confidence.

My longshot pick, Park Avenue Ball, sat on the rail saving ground under Ramon Dominguez. The rail was kind of dead at the Gulf yesterday; however, Park Ave. Ball was gaining along the rail. Only problem was that B.B. Best and High Fly were not tiring and drifting out. So, with no hole at the rail, Dominguez had to pull out for a late charge on the outside. It may have taken a little out of Park Ave. Ball as he tired late. At 26-1, he was worth a wager. This horse needs a pace meltdown to have any chance. Look for him in the Derby.

SunLand Park offered the WinStar Derby for a $500,000 purse. Southern Africa was sent off as the 8/5 favorite under Jon Court. He pressured the pace setter, Thor's Echo, ridden by Corey Nakatani. Southern Africa actually grabbed the lead briefly at the 3/4 pole; but, Thor's Echo came back to win by a length at 2-1. Pretty impressive. Sort It Out was closing from far back to just miss getting second at 2-1. In my mind, Sort it Out's close was more impressive than Park Ave. Ball. Are you getting the idea that I like closers?

You've got to admit, Nick Zito has a good hand of cards. Sun King, High Fly, Noble Causeway- I think he can smell roses.

Is that a crocus I see blooming???

Racetrack Lenny

Easter Weekend Longshot Parade

2005-03-27T20:06:00.000-05:00

The Kentucky Derby will be one of the better betting races in recent memory. No one is dominating thus far and everyone will want a shot at the roses. Might we have another year where the favorite is 6/1? We might!

Proud Accolade ran Saturday (3/26) in the Rushaway Stakes, an ungraded 1-1/16th mile event at Turfway Park. Better to run in a glorified allowance race than try real competition in the Grade 2 Lane's End Stakes. Sent off as the prohibitive public choice at 2/5, with Jerry Bailey aboard, Proud Accolade faced a muddy track. Longshot Daddy Joe (15-1) set the pace and just got nipped at the wire by late running Cat Shaker who lit up the board with a $79.80 win mutuel. Nice exacta at $887. The fractions were smoking for a muddy track (22.4, 46.2, 1.11.1); yet, Daddy Joe nearly wired the field. Proud Accolade was a menacing 4th at the 3/4 pole and loomed boldly at the far turn before he gave way and finished a well beaten 6th--beaten by better than 12 lenghts. To those who backed Proud Accolade with reckless abandon at 2/5, remember: "hardly a man is still alive who made the mortgage at 2/5". One never knows if Derby bound horses are out for real or out for a real workout. I think we are discovering that Proud Accolade has problems getting beyond a mile. He also may not have cared for the off-track. One more chance; but, his chances are fading.

The Lane's End, run on the same card at 1-1/8th miles, gave us a look at Mr. Sword, Magna Graduate, Andromeda's Hero, Texcess and Spanish Chestnut. Spanish Chestnut was sent off as the 2-1 favorite and, just as he did last time out, he led the field through some decent fractions before giving way at the top of the stretch. He finished 6th beaten a dozen lengths. It's becoming pretty obvious that this horse is a sprinter. Mr. Sword was 6th most of the way, made a sweeping move on the far turn, took the lead at the 3/4 pole, led by 2 lenghts in the stretch and tired late. Maybe the muddy track took a bit out of him. The others finished out of the money with Texcess finishing last beaten over 30 lenghts. Instead, previously unmentioned Flower Alley, off at 10-1, got into the Derby picture with a nice come from behind win.

Other races- Malibu Moonshine won the Private Terms Stakes at Laurel Park by a neck. High Standards won the San Pedro Stakes at Santa Anita by a little more than a length.

Good news- Afleet Alex was not injured in his loss last week. He came out of the race with a respiratory tract infection and is on antibiotics. He is expected to be back in some light training by the middle to end of this coming week. So, ignore his last race. With the last race thrown out, Afleet Alex has been in the money in every one of his starts.

Happy Easter to all,

Racetrack Lenny

Wha' Happened?

2005-03-20T18:04:00.000-05:00

that's the question on my mind after following this weekend's 4 stakes races.

In New York, there was the Gotham Stakes, a Grade 3 race run at Aqueduct over a fast track. A very strange race is the best way to put it. First, Jockey Alan Garcia lost his irons and had his saddle slip as soon as they left the gate. You would think that spelled the end of Pavo's chances. Wrong. Garcia put on quite a show managing to stay on his horse and nearly winning the whole thing. He finished 2nd at 17/1. However, the stewards took him down and placed him 4th for Garcia accidentally hitting Naughty New Yorker who was closing at that point. I watched the replay and the stewards got it wrong. Garcia's whip did hit Naughty New Yorker; but, the contact was incidental and accidental. I don't think Naughty New Yorker would have done any better than he did. As it was, he finished 4th and got moved up to 3rd. Look for Pavo to be in the Wood Memorial--he belongs.

The Gotham saw the 2 longest shots on the board set suicidal fractions of 22-1/5 and 44-2/5 with 6/5 favorite Galloping Grocer sitting the rail trip 3rd. The Grocer got the lead at the head of the stretch but got run down by both Survivalist (the race winner at 3/1) and Pavo. Because of the steward's actions, the Grocer got moved up to 2nd. Galloping Grocer may be a miler--despite sitting 3rd, he was tiring at the end. Survivalist closed from far back to win; but, there was a pace meltdown and he was the lucky horse.

At Oaklawn Park, the Grade 3 Rebel Stakes was run. This was the race Smarty Jones used last year to begin his march to the Derby. Smarty's connections are trying to do the same with Rockport Harbor and they nearly pulled it off at 8/5. Despite somewhat sluggish fractions and being loose on the lead (Rockport had a 3-1/2 length lead at the half), he got run down by Greater Good (John McKee up) who won by a half length at 9/2. Look for Greater Good to go on to greater things. Rockport may have needed this race--remember, he's been troubled by a sore hoof for weeks. However, I think he's a miler and may be distance challenged at the classic distances. The huge surprise in the Rebel was the poor performance by Afleet Alex. Sent off the 3/5 favorite, he was 2nd at the 3/4 pole and was making his patented late run but he literally stopped at the head of the stretch. That kind of stoppage suggests something went wrong; I just hope it isn't serious because Afleet Alex is one of my favs for the Derby.

The Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita was probably the best race of the weekend. A very competitive race considering the favorite (Roman Ruler) went off the tepid 3/1 choice. The Ruler showed nothing. He was actually being eased in the stretch. No Derby for Roman Ruler. Consolidator, the 7/1 race winner, showed he belonged in the Derby hunt with a going-away 6 length win through some swift fractions. Put him in your Derby picture. Wilko went off at 4/1 and ran an even 4th all the way around. He may be just a cut below these.

The Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby had to be the weakest field ever assembled. Sun King, a legitimate Derby contender, literally had a public workout. Sent of at 1/20--that's right, folks- a nickle for every dollar. He toyed with the field to win by 3 widening lengths paying $2.10 across the board. The track got dealt its biggest show pool deficit in its history. I'm surprised they allowed show betting. The value in this race turned out to be the exacta and trifecta pool. With a 27/1 shot finishing 2nd and a 62/1 shot finishing 3rd, the trifecta paid $158. Not bad with a 1/20 shot on top. I would have liked to have seen Sun King in a more competitive race; but, the final time was not too bad and maybe this strategy will work.

If Alan Garcia is reading my blog- You have earned my great respect with the heady ride on Pavo despite all that went wrong! Congrats!

Bet with your head, not over it!

Racetrack Lenny

A Good Betting Derby Coming Up

2005-03-14T21:03:00.000-05:00

And it can't come soon enough; but, we have to wait.

Declan's Moon did not come out of his last race in good shape. The heat that was detected in his knee turns out to be a bone chip. With rest, it may take care of itself. If it doesn't resolve itself, it would require surgery. In either case, he will need at least 60 days rest and that knocks him out of the 1st Saturday in May. Those that bet him with gusto in the Futures Pools are crying in their beers.

Some intersting races this past weekend with equally interesting results. The big races were the Louisiana Derby at the Fairgrounds and the Santa Anita Oaks at Santa Anita. First, the Cajun Country roundup:

High Limit made his 1st start of the year and made a smashing debut for trainer Bobby Frankel. High Limit wired the field to win by 4 widening lengths in near track record time. Looks like High Limit may be the real deal. Storm Surge, another Derby hopeful, could get no closer than 3rd and was nearly 8 lenghts behind High Limit with no apparent excuse. The 2 closers in the race, Sort It Out and Scipion both turned in clunkers. Scipion finished 6th beaten 9 lenghts and Sort It Out was 8th beaten nearly a dozen lengths. Both ran well their prior start. If you like consistency in performance; then, these 2 are not for you. They need a pace meltdown to get the money and that just didn't happen Saturday.

The Santa Anita Oaks went to 1/5 favorite Sweet Catomine. A very nice win and the papers are all gushing about how she will cream the boys when the time comes. Ok, hold on. Take a look at that race a bit more closely and you will see her competition was not exactly world caliber. The fractions were so/so. Yes, she was impressive closing strongly into a lifeless pace; but, I'll wait until she runs against the boys in the Santa Anita Derby. If she finishes in the top 4; then, she belongs in the big race.

The Rebel Stakes is coming up at Oaklawn and it should be a very interesting race if Rockport Harbor starts against Afleet Alex. Rockport has been nursing a very sore hoof and is said to be about 75%. That could be hype or "downing expectations". We'll see if he can carry his speed. Afleet Alex will get his chance to prove he can close like he did last year. Thankfully, John Velasquez will ride.

My early Derby horse, Sun King, will run in the Tampa Bay Derby. That's a puzzling choice as I think Sun King needs a little better competition to be tightened up properly for Derby Day. However, Nick Zito seems to be doing everything right with this horse; so, I will keep the faith.

If you are into the Futures Pools, the current pool has the Field as the favorite at 6/1. That'a a ton better than 2/1 just 2 weeks ago. At 6/1, I'll take a $20 stab at the field. Afleet Alex is the 2nd choice at 8/1; not very appetizing considering he closes from far back and would need a good trip to get the roses. The Derby is the ultimate trip race. Sun King is 10/1 in the futures and will get another $10 on him in addition to the other $10 I put on him at 13/1. Remember, in the futures pools, you get the odds that were in place for that pool regardless of what happens thereafter. However, your horse must start in the Derby and needs to win the Derby. That's a taller order than you would think. That's why when betting these pools, you need to demand value for your dollar.

All for now. Thanks to all who've responded to the call for jockey Gary Boulanger and his financial need during his recovery from very serious injuries.

Bet with your head, not over it!

Racetrack Lenny

A Racing Industry Disgrace

2005-03-13T09:39:00.000-05:00

Sorry, folks. I'm departing from the run up to the Derby to write about one of the more unknown facts of horse racing and how it is totally unaddressed. The issue- lack of health insurance for the jockeys who give us the product we so enjoy.

To the casual observer who will hear of the Jerry Baileys or the Pat Days of the world, the impression is that all jockeys are financially well off and can afford any medical expenses that come their way. Well, think again. The vast majority of jockeys toiling at racetracks across the U.S. are paid a pittance for their services and many hold second jobs just to be able to put food on the table for their families. Jockeys are considered "independent contractors" rather than racetrack employees. In an independent contractor scenario, health insurance is not provided. And, the independent contractor is not eligible for Workers' Compensation insurance because they are not employees. It's the ultimate Catch-22.

Gulfstream Park regular rider, Gary Boulanger, was severely injured last Sunday, 3/6 when his mount, In Hand, took a bad step in the final turn of a turf race and went down. Boulanger was thrown from his mount and trampled by horses following behind. Boulanger suffered a ruptured spleen and a blood clot on his brain, the effects of which remain unknown. Boulanger was upgraded yesterday from critical condition to serious condition at Memorial Regional Hospital in Hollywood, FL. However, he faces the reconstruction of part of his skull that had to be removed to relieve pressure on the brain and deal with the blood clot. He faces months of surgeries and lots of physical therapy just to be able to carry out the simple functions of everyday life, let alone get back in the saddle which, sadly, will not happen.

Gary Boulanger has NO health coverage. His expenses are literally being taken care of out of family savings, help from friends, and the establishment of a fund in his name by fellow rider Rosemary Homeister. How sad and disgraceful is that? The owners of tracks around the country get wealthy while the very people who allow their "show" to go on rely on luck to stay healthy.

Please contribute to the Gary Boulanger Fund if you are able. Any checks should be made payable to "Gary Boulanger Fund, Inc." and sent to Ms. Rosemary Homeister, P.O. Box 327595, Pembroke Pines, FL 33332.

You should also write to you local legislators and congressional representatives demanding that the long ignored jockeys be given, at the very least, basic catastrophic health care cover.

Racetrack Lenny

March Madness

2005-03-06T16:53:00.000-05:00

No, not that March Madness, the horse kind March Madness. The major stake races leading up to the first Saturday in May have begun.

Lost In The Fog, the new sensation that hadn't been made triple crown eligible, won the Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park yesterday. Sent off as the 1/2 favorite, Lost In The Fog tracked the leaders and took over at the head of the stretch to win by 4-3/4 widening lengths. The race was a 7 furlong event; so, at least we know we have a good sprinter. Lost In The Fog's connections will pay the $6,000 now needed to make Lost In The Fog triple crown eligible. Derby fever is contagious!

At Oaklawn Park, Afleet Alex ran in the Mountain Valley Stakes against much lesser competition. Sent off at 1/5 and ridden by Jeremy Rose, Afleet Alex took over with authority in the stretch and continued beyond the 6 furlongs getting 7 furlongs in 1:22. A nice race and a nice work. Jockey John Velasquez was not available for the race as he had a prior committment; however, Velasquez will ride as things get closer to the Derby.

The Fountain of Youth, a 1-1/8 mile affair at Gulfstream Park, turned out a very nice field of horses. Many established their credentials quite nicely. Nick Zito's High Fly won in impressive fashion taking over in deep stretch and looking visually impressive. His workouts hinted he was ready and he was. Local Derby hopeful, B.B. Best set a very pressured pace and took 3rd at 16-1. I don't think we've seen the last of B.B. Best. Bandini made a good run at High Fly and seemed to be gaining late; but, he was all out to do that while High Fly looked like he had something left. Bandini's race was a good one and he has established himself as a contender.

Those who backed Defer came away disappointed with a 7th place finish with no apparent excuse. Didn't see anything in the papers or news today that might give a clue as to why the lacklustre effort. Another highly touted horse, Papi Chullo, remained a maiden. Sent off at 4-1 despite being a maiden, Papi Chullo was far back early and closed a ton to get 4th. The connections of Papi Chullo will have to work at getting a little more "gate" speed for Papi. Despite this, the Derby is the one race where there can be a pace meltdown and a closer (with good traffic luck) can get all the marbles.

Finally, out on the West Coast, The Santa Catalina Stakes was run at Santa Anita. At a 1-1/16th miles, Declan's Moon was sent off as the 4/5 favorite. On paper, this was a 3 horse race- Declan's Moon, Going Wild and Spanish Chestnut. That's exactly how it happened. I like it when that happens. Spanish Chestnut set a very pressured pace and gave way late. With more patient handling, Spanish Chestnut might have lasted the whole way. Going Wild was going really well late. Declan's Moon looked totally soaked at the end. He was fractious in the paddock area and was lathered up; however, as he gains more experience, he may get over that. However, I think the early Derby favorite is beatable and we just have to figure out who will beat him.

The sad news in the Santa Catalina was that highly regarded Snack took a bad step and broke down. He was vanned off; however, I don't know what the injury was or if it was life threatening. Will be checking to see. In any event, he is definitely out of the Derby picture.

This should be a heavy workout week and we'll be following for any clues.

Remember, bet with your head, not over it!

Racetrack lenny

Work, Work, Work

2005-02-27T19:51:00.000-05:00

Lots of workouts this weekend, March is just around the corner. Declan's Moon, a Derby favorite, worked 7 furlongs at Hollywood Park in 1:25-3/5. Nice to see a long workout in preparation for the Derby distance. Nick Zito's High Fly drilled a bullet workout-5 furlongs in 59 seconds & change. Scipion worked 6 furlongs in 1:14-4/5 at Santa Anita. Filly hopeful Sweet Catomine worked 5 furlongs in 59-3/5 seconds, quite an impressive turn of speed for the filly. Sweet Catomine is a nice filly; I just think there is a pretty good crop of 3 year olds that it may be tough for Sweet Catomine to beat the boys; but, you never know. At least Sweet Catomine has a name you can sing the Neil Diamond hit "Sweet Caroline" to!

Bet with your head, not over it!

Racetrack Lenny

Oh, Those Allowance Races

2005-02-26T19:37:00.000-05:00

Derby hopefuls continue to workout and actually race in preparation for the roses on the first Saturday in May.

Sun King ran his 1st race of the season at Gulfstream Park. In the 10th race one mile allowance event, Sun King (Edgar Prado up) was sent off as the 4/5 favorite. 2 other Derby potentials also raced in the same event. Survivalist (Jerry Bailey up) and Monarch Lane (John Velasquez up) who both went off at 5/2. Everything else in the race was a double digit longshot. Sun King, out of Charismatic, was much the best pulling away impressively after circling the top runners on the turn. Sun King won by nearly 6 widening lengths. Survivalist and Monarch Lane ran 2, 3 and completed a trifecta that paid a whopping $9.40. The good news out of this race was that Sun King, one of my early picks for the Derby, showed some versatility. Last year, Sun King always rode the rail and waited for a seam to open up. Today, he got off the rail, circled horses and pulled away. Being out of Charismatic, he should have the stamina to last a long distance. He could be the sleeper horse of the Derby.

A good number of workouts this week. Afleet Alex worked 6 furlongs in 1:13-3/5; not earth-shattering but a good tightener as he readies himself for the upcoming Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Rockport Harbor also had his first workout in over a month, and after suffering a bruised hoof. He went 7 furlongs in 1:27-2/5; not too shabby. It's good to see John Servis trying Rockport Harbor for stamina. Could he be this year's Smarty Jones?

Nick Zito's High Limit ran a 7 furlong workout in a sensational 1:25-2/5. It was faster than Zito wanted; but, the exercise boy said High Limit just wanted to go.
New York's local horse- Naughty New Yorker ran a 5 furlong work at Belmont Park in 1:05 flat. He must have been pulling a stagecoach. A very pedestrian time. I don't see him as a Derby contender; although, his connections very much have Derby fever.

Out on the West Coast, 2 nice works for Consolidator and Going Wild at Santa Anita. Consolidator ran a 5 furlong work in 58 flat- very fast. Going Wild ran 6 furlongs in 1:12-1/5, not great but not bad either.

Tuesday will be March 1st and March begins the series of stakes races leading up to the big day.

Bet with your head, not over it!

Racetrack Lenny

Bettor Beware

2005-02-20T11:05:00.000-05:00

That time of the year when the bettor doesn't know if a trainer is sending his horse for real or for a good workout. That's why it's nearly impossible to bet well regarded Derby contenders. Highly touted horses that have name recognition are generally well overbet and become very unappealing as far as risk/reward goes. The way to bet these races is to find a medium longshot that has a chance to beat the favorite.

Case in point yesterday was the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita. Highly regarded Consolidator was sent off as the favorite in a 4 horse field. While Consolidator was prominent throughout, he tired in the stretch and was a well-beaten 4th. The distance was 7 furlongs--the Derby is a mile and a quarter. Not a good sign. For those looking for a horse that could beat Consolidator and picked Fusaichi Rock Star, you were nicely rewarded with a $17 win mutuel. So, Fusaichi Rock Star has re-entered the Derby mix.

The feature race at Oaklawn Park featured the unbeaten Munificence ridden by Calvin Borel. The distance was 1 mile. Surprisingly, Munificence was sent off at 7/2, so, he was very bettable. He had the lead the entire way at some quick fractions until he got caught at the end by the favorite, Greater Good, ridden by John McKee. Sent off at 1/2, Greater Good was 18 lengths back and dead last at the half mile marker. He then started a strong close, circling the field and just getting up at the wire. Munificence finished 2nd; however, the chart of the race shows that Munificence drifted out late indicating a tiring horse. Can he go an extra quarter mile? Maybe--but you'd need to get Calvin Borel off the horse. Borel only knows speed and this horse needs someone who can ration out his speed.

Other news: Declan's Moon had a great 7 furlong workout at Hollywood Park this week. His connections are obviously going long trying to put some stamina in Declan. Afleet Alex had a 4 furlong work in 47 seconds under former regular rider Jeremy Rose. The good news is that Afleet Alex's connections have announced that John Velasquez will be the regular rider during the Triple Crown campaign.

Nick Zito's trainees- High Fly and Sun King both worked 5 furlongs very nicely. Look for Sun King to be heard from during this Triple Crown season.

More prep races to come. Bet with your head, not over it!

Let The Games Begin!

2005-02-12T19:12:00.000-05:00

The race to the Derby has begun with 2 significant prep races run today. One at New York's Aqueduct racetrack and the other at the Fair Grounds in Louisiana. The results- a muddled mess.

It's the time of year if you don't know whether highly touted horses are out for real or just out for the workout. For those that backed Galloping Grocer in the mile and one sixteenth Whirlaway Stakes in New York, you came away sorely disappointed. Sent off at 1-2, Galloping Grocer had the lead but was pressured heavily by Diamond Wildcat. Still, the fractions were not all that demanding. Scrappy T, a pony foaled close to the Bluegrass Family residence, had the misfortune of landing Post 10 with only a short run to the first turn. Jockey Alan Garcia compromised Scrappy T's chances by not being patient. At the half mile mark, he moved Scrappy T from last to 3rd in one huge sweeping move. That cost him in the late stages when he got passed by eventual winner Sort it Out who came from out of the clouds to prevail at 19-1. He was followed by another deep closer- Naughty New Yorker. The shots you heard in the stands were the bridge jumpers who bet Galloping Grocer with reckless abandon despite his not racing in a very long time.

The Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds, also at a mile and a sixteenth proved to be a similar race. Scipion Way (Gary Stevens up) closed from dead last to prevail at 10-1. The highly touted Harlington, who had had some sensational works, ran evenly throughout finishing 6th as the 7/5 favorite. He was never better than a non-threatening 5th. Maybe out for exercise? Highly touted Storm Surge ran evenly at 6-1 and never threatened at any stage.

Of note, Rockport Harbor, from the same connections that brought you Smarty Jones, ran a 6 furlong workout at Oaklawn Park in 1:01-3/5. Not sensational; but, the plan was just to get him revved up for the upcoming Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby--the same route Smarty Jones took to the Run for the Roses.

May the horse be with you!

Racetrack Lenny

Final Pre-Belmont Update

2004-06-03T19:37:00.000-04:00

Well, this morning the forecast was for a glorious Saturday with highs in the mid-70's and just 12 hours later the forecast is for rain, heavy at time, with a high near 60. Go figure.

Purge will be sent right away from his inside post to establish a lead and try to get a half in 48 seconds or slower. Birdstone and Rock Hard Ten could be contesting the pace as well with Stewart Elliott having Smarty Jones at least 4th in the early going considering he has the outside #9 post. Royal Assault, Tap Dancer, Caiman and Eddington are all closers. Expect Eddington and Royal Assault to be closer than usual. Tap Dancer and Caiman are just outclassed. It would be a huge piece of news if either one of them finished in the money. Master David is a puzzle. He was on or near the lead in the Wood Memorial and lost to Tapit. He was forwardly placed in the Derby and finished in the bottom half. He ran in the Peter Pan and tried a new tactic- run from dead last to close. He finished 8th. So, what will be the tactic?

There are very few women and even fewer men that have paid the mortgage at 1 to 10. That's about what Smarty Jones will go off at making this a race to watch rather than bet.

I'll do a $2 Exacta with Smarty over every double digit odds horse in the field. If you really believe the exacta will be Smarty over Rock Hard Ten- take your $4.20 winnings and be happy.

If you want to waste $4 but take a real long chance- put $2 Win each on Tap Dancer and Caiman and hope every other horse jumps the rail and jumps in the Belmont infield lake. Stranger things have happened in racing.

May the horse be with you.

Belmont Preview

2004-06-02T19:40:00.000-04:00

Steve & Catherine prepared for the Belmont by paying a visit to Churchill Downs this week. After a poor start, they rallied down the stretch with back-to-back exacta wins.

Here's Racetrack Len's take on the last leg of the 2004 Triple Crown:

The 136th Belmont comes up a week from today and wouldn't today's weather (clear as a bell and 60 degrees) be an ideal Belmont day!

Look for a record crowd to attend the Belmont, the old record being 103,445 in 2002 to watch Sarava win at 75-1. Smarty Jones seems primed for yet another top effort. Look for a small field and be happy with a $19 trifecta. As of today, it looks like there could be only 6 going in the race. Should 6 go, there would be a trifecta. Anything less than 6, it will be win, place and exacta wagering only. Look for Smarty to go off at 1/10. Philly Park claimer Tap Dancer should be the longest shot on the board; believe me, this horse has NO chance.

Stay tuned for more.

It's Preakness Day!

2004-05-15T12:41:00.000-04:00

Time is flying by--seems like they just ran the Derby. Len sends in this report:

A bit late to get this off; but, Racetrack Lenny says: Take the short price on Smarty Jones and be happy. Look at Smarty to likely go off as the odds-on favorite, somewhere in the range of 4/5. Anything higher than that will be a gift.Look for Borrego to run a better race and perhaps sneak into the exacta. Eddington has the talent to get 3rd. Imperialism seems like a candidate to bounce. Rock Hard Ten is too lightly raced. Sir Shackleton is in over his head, ditto Water Cannon. Little Matth Man needs a complete pace meltdown to land a share. Look for Lion Heart to take them as far as he can with heavy pressure coming from Sir Shackleton and Water Cannon. Rock Hard Ten will be right there and Smarty Jones may sit 4th or 5th and then pound at the head of the stretch.

May the horse be with you.

Derby Wrap-Up

2004-05-01T23:43:00.000-04:00

For those of you who took my pick of Smarty Jones and bet it, congratulations. I felt great that the blue collar horse won and that Stewart Elliott, who has toiled for 22 years at Philadelphia Park, finally got his due recognition. For those of you that played my exacta and trifecta picks, I'm crying in my beer too.

I think Smarty Jones made some believers today. The most "dosage" challenged horse was much, much the best. Lion Heart ran his best race ever--and it had to be today to rob us of the Smarty Jones/Imperialism exacta, which 2 minutes to post time was listed as paying $176. Lion Heart just didn't figure into my handicapping just by how he quit in the Blue Grass at a shorter distance. My conclusion after today is that Lion Heart loves mud. Imperialism got 3rd after being 17th at the top of the stretch. He was closing but it took getting out of traffic to achieve that and he shook loose too late.

The Cliff's Edge bounced higher than a pink spaulding ball. I should have known better. And as for Tapit, the trip is everything. When you watch the replay, Ramon Dominguez was right behind Borrego, a patented closer and Pro Prado, another strong closer. Ooops. Once Borrego and Pro Prado started backing up, Dominguez had no choice but to steady Tapit twice. If you're a one run closer like Tapit is, once you build momentum, you just can't start it and stop it twice. Tapit had the worst trip of all the horses in the race.

As for our sentimental choice, Minister Eric; I was starting to count my Futures Bets when Minister Eric reached 3rd and was looking like a strong contender. Then the gut check came and the tank was empty. The unorthodox turf, claiming and allowance race road to the Derby was either going to be sheer genius or gross stupidity. Now we know. Hey, at least for one brief moment, I had over a $1,000 in my pocket. Look for Minister Eric to start showing up in 7 furlong sprints.

Hope you enjoyed watching the race.

Derby Post Position Update

2004-04-29T21:46:00.000-04:00

Well, post positions are set and we're ready to go. A very good betting race. Speed horses generally drew poorly. Read The Footnotes-Post 14, Smarty Jones- Post 15, Pollard's Vision- Post 17 and Quinton's Gold Rush- Post 20. The lone speed that drew very well was Lion Heart-Post 3.

Post positions definitely will play a big part in this race. Lion Heart with a favorable post should get right out and make a bee line to the rail. Look for the outside speed horses to get out fast trying to get to mid-pack and perhaps forced to be 5 wide or more at the first turn. If none of the outside speed is able to get to Lion Heart quickly and the first quarter goes in anything slower than 23-4/5, Lion Heart then has a chance. I just doubt he can get the distance.

Contenders: Smarty Jones, despite Post 15, has proven his talent coming into the Derby undefeated. His workout earlier this week (5 furlongs in 58) was sensational. He seems primed for a top effort. Tapit's slow speed figure in the Wood Memorial should be discounted. It was a bizarre race and he came from way out of it to win it. This one-run closer gets Post 18 which will guarantee that he will have no problem securing a last or next to last position early. Should there be a fast pace, he could be this year's Gato Del Sol. Imperialism is the most experienced horse in the race- 15 starts. He can stalk the pace from mid-pack or close from far back. His latest workouts have been good and he could be in the hunt late. The Cliff's Edge was impressive beating Lion Heart and he's another versatile sort that wins these type of races. Borrego was the only horse doing some serious running at Smarty Jones in the Arkansas Derby and a similar effort puts him right there. Finally- our sentimental choice, Minister Eric, drew very well. He's a mid-pack runner who launches one run and he should be able to get to mid-pack fairly easily. Will he have the stamina to get the distance-iffy.

Pretenders: Action This Day continues to be highly touted because of his Breeders Cup Juvenile win. It would be a miracle if he pulls off the upset given his sorry record this year. The Breeder's Cup curse continues. Friends Lake is here on the strength of his Florida Derby win. He upset that field because of a pace meltdown and that may be unlikely in the Derby. Master David is always knocking around, but, he had the Wood seemingly won when he ran out of gas and was passed easily by Tapit. Read The Footnotes knows one thing-speed. He got fried in the Florida Derby battling with Second of June. I don't think he's yet recovered from that grueling race. Castledale is an Irish bred who can definitely get the distance and he won the Santa Anita Derby. But, that race was deceiving. It was run in a slow time and Castledale was able to last. He will not get soft fractions in the Derby. Castledale has the look of a good Belmont horse. Quinton's Gold Rush ran extremely well in his last race; but, he draws Post 20 and speed is his game. Too much to overcome.

All others merit no mention.
Bets: $10 WPS- Smarty Jones, Tapit, Imperialism
$2 WPS- Minister Eric
$2 Exacta Box: Smarty Jones, Tapit, Imperialism
$1 Exacta: The Cliff's Edge, Tapit, Smarty Jones over The Cliff's Edge, Tapit, Smarty Jones, Borrego, Minister Eric
$1 Triple: Smarty Jones, Tapit, Imperialism over Tapit, Imperialism, Borrego over Smarty Jones, Borrego, Minister Eric, The Cliff's Edge
$1 Superfecta: Smarty Jones, Tapit over Smarty Jones, Tapit over The Cliff's Edge, Borrego over The Cliff's Edge, Borrego, Minister EricGood luck everyone, may the Horse be with you.

Minister Eric Bulletin

2004-04-20T19:50:00.000-04:00

This just in from Racetrack Lenny:Barring the unforeseen, Minister Eric's connections have announced that he will go in the May 1 Derby. Jockey Victor Espinoza has unceremoniously been given the heave ho and his replacement is Mr. Derby Pat Day. Now, that's good news and bad news. Good news in that Minister Eric has the services of a known jockey who knows Churchill Downs like the back of his hand. Bad news in that Minister Eric's odds will drop as a result. Pat Day could ride a mule in the Derby and be sent off as the favorite.

All that being said, Minister Eric faces a tall order on the 1st of May. He is the most lightly prepared pony coming in having run a 7 furlong turf race, a claiming race (still can't get over that) and a $54,000 allowance race. All others have run in at least one graded stake race in 2004. Could they be thinking the "fresh horse" angle? We'll see.

Lexington and Federico Tesio

2004-04-19T19:52:00.000-04:00

2 more stakes races down: The Lexington at Keeneland and the Federico Tesio at Pimlico.

Lexington: Quinton's Gold Rush (Jerry Bailey up) ran a super race. Breaking from post 10, he was hustled to the front and sat behind pacesetter Dashboard Drummer. At the 3/4 mile mark, Quinton's Gold Rush took over and won by 2-3/4 widening lengths. He ran the mile and one-sixteenth in a very creditable 1:43-4/5. Question is was this race spaced to close to the Derby? We'll see; but, Quinton's Gold Rush's running style suits the Derby.

Other Derby hopefuls-Song of the Sword was closing and got 3rd but was never a threat. The much heralded Pomeroy ran evenly around the track sitting 3rd most of the way before being overtaken by Song of the Sword.

Federico Tesio: Will the Derby winner come out of this race? In a word-No. Derby hopeful Paddington, a one-run closer, sat behind a lifeless pace (1st quarter in 24) and actually lost ground in the stretch. Not a good sign. Water Cannon won the mile and one-eighth contest in a very pedestrian 1:50-2/5. Minister Eric is due to workout sometime this week.

Minister Eric Watch

2004-04-14T20:50:00.000-04:00

Surprise, surprise. No workouts for Minister Eric in the past 2 weeks made me wonder what was up. He turns up today in the 7th Race at Keeneland. A $54,000 Allowance at a 1-1/16th miles on the dirt. In a field of 7--all of the others being nothing better than claimers, Minister Eric was sent off at 1/5 and won like a 1/5 shot should. He won by 4-1/4 widening lengths. Good news is that he was able to change leads as he began to drift out in the stretch.

Pretty unorthodox way to bring a contender up to the Derby; but, we'll see. Minister Eric is on the "bubble" of horses who may be earnings challenged to get into the Derby. Hey, at least he won a race! By the way, the exacta returned a whopping $5.60!

Derby Update

2004-04-11T20:56:00.000-04:00

Huge weekend of prep races for the Run for the Roses: The Wood Memorial, The Blue Grass Stakes are covered here: Arkansas Derby in next article for space's sake.

Wood: Over 17,000 fans at Aqueduct couldn't decide on a favorite; so, at the last tick of the odds, Value Plus was sent off as the ever so tepid 5/2 choice. Tapit, off at 5/1, was dead last about 20 lengths back in the early going and got rolling after a half-mile to reach contention at the head of the stretch. He prevailed by a 1/2 length in a very gutsy win over Master David who ran a good race; he just got outfinished. Eddington completed the trifecta just a nose back in third. Other Derby hopefuls- Swingforthefences loomed a huge threat at the head of the stretch, even getting the lead by a head ever so briefly, but then faded to 4th. He is very doubtful for the Derby. Value Plus was a huge disappointment having the lead at the 1/2 mile mark and checking in a very tiring 6th; seems like no Derby for him. Consecrate threw in a real clunker and was never a factor finishing 9th beaten better than 15 lengths. Closer Little Mathh Man never closed and NY Bred Sinister G got fried by the torrid pace beating just one horse.

Blue Grass: Folks bet their lungs on Lion Heart sending him off at 4/5. They got beat soundly by The Cliff's Edge who closed in workmanlike fashion to prevail at almost 6/1. Limehouse finished a creditable 3rd running evenly around the track. Action This Day was never a factor and the bettors knew it sending him off at 10/1. No Derby for him. He continues the Breeders Cup jinx. No winner of the Breeders Cup has come back to win the Derby. The streak endures. Bob Baffert's Derby hope, Preachinatthebar, put in a dreadful performance. He was up early with Lion Heart and he stopped like he was shot finishing a very dull 7th beaten better than 15 lengths.

Arkansas Derby: Smarty Jones is the real deal. Despite post #11, a muddy track and getting off a step slowly, Stewart Elliott gunned him to the lead 5 wide into the 1st turn and battled with Purge up to the far turn when Elliott asked Smarty to run and he accelerated to lead by 4 at the top of the stretch. Only stretch-runner Borrego was doing any serious running at the end to get 2nd but just could not get to the winner. Pro Prado rallied along the rail to get 3rd. It was open lengths to the rest of the field.

So, look for Smarty Jones to perhaps be the favorite on May 1st with The Cliff's Edge, Lion Heart, Tapit, Master David and Eddington taking some money as well.

As for Minister Eric, he may have a big problem getting into the Derby based on earnings. Only the top 20 stakes earners get into the Derby. Minister Eric's connections now seem likely to pay the price for running their horse in a claiming race and an allowance turf race. Maybe someday someone will explain that boneheaded strategy to me.

May the horse be with you!

Derby Update - Santa Anita

2004-04-04T20:59:00.000-04:00

Less than a month to go and the Derby picture is as muddled as ever. However, a few are standing out and they are Smarty Jones, Pollard's Vision and Imperialism. Smarty Jones won the Rebel Stakes 2 weeks ago and will go in the Arkansas Derby. He worked 5 furlongs on 4/3 in an eye-popping 58-3/5. Big question- can he hold his speed a mile and a quarter?

Pollard's Vision won the Illinois Derby by nearly 3 widening lengths and looked good doing so. Skipaslew who has been prominently mentioned for the first Saturday in May checked in 5th beaten 15 lengths, a real clunker.

The Santa Anita Derby had a stellar field and a 30-1 shipper from Ireland pulled off the upset slipping up the rail to prevail by a head. 2nd place finisher, Rock Hard Ten was DQ'd from 2nd to 3rd for interfering with Imperialism who was closing like a freight train. Imperialism was moved up to 2nd as a result. Imperialism is another one-run closer that needs a quick pace up front and such horses rarely win the Derby; but, this one is similar to Little Mathh Man. Both have powerful closing kicks. Wimbledon, St. Averil and Lucky Pulpit finished 6th, 7th and 8th, all beaten 10 lengths or more.

Minister Eric, our sentimental choice, has been rested this week. He may turn up in the Wood Memorial.

Derby Update

2004-03-28T21:03:00.000-05:00

Minister Eric resurfaces at Santa Anita in an allowance race ($52,000) on the dirt at a mile and one sixteenth. Quite a good effort despite finishing 2nd. A finish eerily similar to his 2nd place finish in the Breeder's Cup. Sent off as the 7/5 favorite, he was 5th in the early going and then steadily was gaining on the outside. 2nd choice,and Derby hopeful, BoomzeeBoom went wire to wire winning by 1/2 a length. Minister Eric ran out of room but it was 8 lengths back to Dream Place who was sent off at 5/2. Obviously, a much improved effort off that inexplicable claiming race of 2 weeks ago. So, where does he go from here? Minister Eric's connections have not announced their plans for April yet. Stay tuned.

Other Derby news: Action This Day had a workout yesterday running 5 Furlongs in a very swift 59 seconds flat. SwingfortheFences and The Cliff's Edge both worked out 4 and 5 furlongs respectively. Times were 48-4/5 for SwingfortheFences and 1:01-4/5 for The Cliff's Edge. Nothing spectacular but enough to keep them fit.

Derby Update - Lane's End, Rebel Stakes

2004-03-21T21:08:00.000-05:00

The Lane's End at Turfway Park saw the much heralded debut of Birdstone with Jerry Bailey up. The fans bet with reckless abandon making Birdstone the prohibitive 3/5 favorite. He finished a lethargic 5th beaten nearly 11 lengths. His trip around the track was somewhat of a saunter, quite dismal. The surprise winner was Sinister G with the immortal Paul Toscano up. Sinister G at 16/1 combined with Tricky Taboo at 55/1, Little Matth Man at 10/1 and That's an Outrage at 18/1 produced a Superfecta that paid $106,848. The only Derby hopeful doing any serious running at the end was Little Matth Man who came from last to be 3rd. This is a one-run stone closer who can win if there is a meltdown on the front end and he has a super trip. Seldom do those horses win the Derby; but, stranger things have happened--remember Gato Del Sol??

Finally, the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park was the only formful race of the weekend. Despite Philadelphia Park shipper Smarty Jones having won 3 straight, the fans sent him off at a generous 7/2. He won for fun-by 3 widening lengths. Stewart Elliott was up and he seems to have the mojo with this pony. Look for Smarty Jones to be a serious contender on Derby day. Purge, another Derby hopeful, led most of the way as the 2/1 favorite but could not hold off Smarty Jones.

Oh, and Minister Eric? No published workouts since his last race. We think he is napping comfortably.

Gotham Run

2004-03-21T20:09:00.000-05:00

3 great races this weekend that continued to muddle the Derby picture; but, I think a potential "star" (Smarty Jones) may have emerged.

The Gotham run at 1 mile at Aqueduct on 3/20 sent Eddington off as the favorite with another Derby hopeful Redskin Warrior a close 2nd choice. The track was listed as "Good" but it looked more muddy than good to me. In any event, suicidal fractions of 21-3/5 and 43-3/5 cooked anyone near the front. Redskin Warrior was a well beaten 5th running out of gas at the head of the stretch. Pomeroy got 2nd beaten 2-1/4 lengths while favorite Eddington did rally past tired horses to get 3rd beaten 3 lengths. The surprise winner: Saratoga County at 8/1. His connections have sworn off the Derby saying Saratoga County can't get a mile and a quarter. His next start-The Lexington Stakes.

Derby Prep Races

2004-03-15T21:10:00.000-05:00

A weekend that featured the Florida Derby, the Santa Anita Oaks, The San Felipe Stakes & the Tampa Bay Derby created a lot more questions that it answered. For those that relish betting favorites and keying everything around them, that home equity loan is starting to look pretty good by now.

Contenders Halfbridled, Action This Day, St. Averil, Read the Footnotes, Tapit and The Cliff's Edge all went down to defeat. Halfbridled finished 2nd and looked pretty flat in doing so. The positive is that her losing time was better than some of the other winners! Action This Day was a badly beaten 7th in the San Felipe and was never in the race--maybe Action another day. The long awaited debut of St. Averil came in the San Felipe where he lost by a nose hair. If this horse is Derby bound, Terrill Baze has to go. Preachinatthebar won the San Felipe in very gutsy fashion and has re-established himself as a contender.

As predicted by me (I am tapping myself on the back) Read The Footnotes bounced all the way to the Moon. That tough, tough race in the Fountain of Youth took out a lot more starch out of him than thought. He ran a very flat 4th at even money (ouch). Look for him to possibly come back stronger in the Wood Memorial.

Tapit was a well beaten 6th in the Florida Derby. I guess those one mile workouts took a bit out of him. Friend's Lake was the winner of the Fla. Derby at 38-1 odds and puts himself in the Derby picture. Go figure. Finally, the Cliff's Edge was third and while not bad, it sure didn't look like an impressive 3rd.

I've gone 4 paragraphs without mentioning our sentimental Derby choice- Minister Eric. That's because I'm absolutely baffled at why his connections entered him in a 6-1/2 Furlong OPTIONAL CLAIMING race. That's right- a CLAIMING race!! Obviously, his connections aren't thinking Derby---and they ran him on the turf--and he finished a lackluster 3rd. Luckily (or maybe unluckily) he was not claimed. The 3rd Derby futures book came out today and Minister Eric has dropped to 52-1. I have $30 on him at 38-1 and another $30 at 34-1. I took a pass on today's odds. A horse that finishes 2nd in the Breeder's Cup obviously has some talent; so, what do the owners/trainers know that we don't?? Maybe Minister Eric will Preachatthebar and tell me himself!

Oh, well, turn the page.

San Rafael and Louisiana Derby

2004-03-07T21:14:00.000-05:00

2 major prep races this weekend which established more questions than answers. The San Rafael Stakes at Santa Anita yesterday and the Louisiana Derby today. Both were won by one-run closers- Imperialism (pictured) winning the San Rafael and Wimbledon prevailing in the La. Derby. Both closed from way, way back to win.

Unbelievably fast paces cooked the favorites in both races. Lion Heart the favorite in the San Rafael, actually was leading but just got nailed at the wire by Imperialism. A little better rating during the race may get him the win next time. Definitely one to watch. Lucky Pulpit, another highly touted Derby contender, finished a dismal 8th, beaten 14 lengths.

In Louisiana, Pollard's Vision who is looking to race the first Saturday in May didn't do badly. Off at 6/1, he was always within 2 lengths of the front and actually got the lead at the top of the stretch before tiring late. He got beaten 2 lengths--but this race went 22-1/5 for the first quarter and 45 to the half. Not too many near the lead were around at the end. A better ride next time gives Pollard's Vision a better chance.

And what of Minister Eric? Yet another weekend where he did not race. He had a 6 furlong workout on Thursday 3/4 in 1:14- 3/5. Not sensational but again he finished the last 3 furlongs faster than the 1st 3. He has the look of a closer. Richard Mandella better find a spot for him soon. Hard to win the Derby off workouts alone.

Halfbridled has a workout this week at 1 mile. Her time was 1:38 which is really good. Wonder what the owners/trainers have in mind putting that kind of distance in her this early--could they be looking to the Belmont??

Can you imagine a Minister Eric/Lucky Pulpit exacta? We can.

Derby Update

2004-02-29T21:16:00.000-05:00

Minister Eric ran a 4 furlong workout at Santa Anita on Tues. 2/24 in 49 seconds. While that sounds awfully slow, his connections had him entered in a minor stake race yesterday, 2/28 at Santa Anita. Problem was that the race filled up and Minister Eric was on the "A/E" (Also Eligible) list. He needed 2 scratches to draw into the race and that didn't happen. So, while the work was on the slow side, it was purposely done just in case he drew into the race. They're going to have to get a bit smarter about running him somewhere! Eric's family (and honorary members) will stand by Minister Eric no matter what!

The filly possibility for the Derby, Halfbridled, ran a 5 Furlong workout at Santa Anita in 59 seconds. That, my friends, is Sensational. Julie Krone was on board and she said "I could have even gone faster if I wanted". Pretty scary---but let's not leave her best racing on the workout tab.

Some possible Derby contenders ran actual races this weekend with mixed results. Capac ran at Laurel Park in an ungraded stake and was a very well beaten 5th. Smarty Jones won the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park by almost a length and it was a gutsy win. Little Matth Man, the Midwestern Derby hopeful ran at Turfway Park in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes and finished 2nd beaten nearly 3 lengths. Little Matth Man had the lead but tired. Racetrack Lenny, February 29, 2004

Another Derby Update

2004-02-22T21:18:00.000-05:00

Minister Eric put in a 4 furlong work in 50-1/5 at Santa Anita. The track was listed as Good; but, it was a rather ho-hum workout. Maybe spaced too soon after his last workout a week ago.

Action This Day put in a work at Santa Anita as well. He went in 50-2/5; so, maybe the off track did compromise workouts.

The Cliff's Edge, touted as a real contender, ran an ungraded stakes race at Tampa Bay Downs. He went of at 1/2 and finished 2nd losing to a 37-1 longshot. The Cliff's Edge got a horrible trip and went 5 wide at the top of the stretch to just miss by a length. There's some talent there but wait til the real running begins.

Derby Updates Begin!

2004-02-17T21:19:00.000-05:00

Minister Eric had his first major workout at Santa Anita this past Sunday. He ran 6 Furlongs in 1:14-3/5 which is nothing spectacular but not bad for a horse who last raced in the Breeder's Cup. His final 3 furlongs were faster than his first 3, confirming in my mind that this horse is a closer. I've put $20 Win on him in the Derby Futures Pool in Las Vegas--my friend Les happened to be there and let me know that Minister Eric was listed as horse #13 on Friday the 13th--what a hunch bet! He was listed at 60-1. The Field is the favorite in the Futures Book- a very non-appetizing 4/5 odds. Not with my cash.

Another contender, Birdstone, ran an allowance race at Gulfstream at 7 Furlongs and won by 3 at 3/5 odds. It sounds better than it looked. He ran against 6 tomato cans and his time was nothing to write home about. But, a win is a win.

The Fountain of Youth (Grade 2) at Gulfstream this past Saturday was one helluva race. Second of June was 8/5 with Read the Footnotes at 2/1 and Read the Footnotes prevailed by a head after a 3/4 mile battle between the 2. It was another 7 lengths back to the third choice Silver Wagon. Exacta paid $13 and the Triple paid $39. The time was just 2/5 of a second off the stakes record. The top two ran their eyeballs out. I wonder if that took too much out of them. I don't think either trainer wanted that big of an effort this early.

Halfbridled is soon to be worked out with Julie Krone back in action. Halfbridled could be a real serious threat to the boys this year if she picks up where she left off last year. Could be this year's Winning Colors. Too early to tell.

We'll see how it continues to develop. That's it from Uncle Lenny at the races!